Dear Readers, in this section anybody can ask about any stock they care about. Like what are the high/low projections, what are the probabilities of getting there and when. So, it is your question and our answers at work. Now, stock does not mean stock only, BONDS,GOLD,OIL , social security, elections, politics,love, environment, real estate, hororrscope(: :), anything goes... Weekend, who cares? that's when stars come.
out
Ok, talking about stars, my star Mars is now in wealth zodiac(Venus) and has sextile with Uranus very near my fortune point. While not completely, I appear almost invincible this week.
On the other hand, Venus in opposition with Neptune (Jul 8-9 ) seems to have created the big deception for wealth, for those( Us) who wanted to capitalize on short positions. While we have not lost(that is good thing), we did not gain either in stocks, even as we made off like bandits in GOLD.
Dear John, Attached please see USA? corporations with over 50% sales abroad. Do you think the managers there care where the money comes from? I doubt. Note: Readers you can follow this group in our groupstrength table( name exporters). Helps understand who benefits from LOOOOOOOOOOOW Dollar.
Now so that not to get confused, There is nowhere I used the word stock market crash, except under question mark. You may find it on this site, but I do not use the word. Why, unfortunately, it makes people like RK correct for so long that it becomes self fulfilling prophecy. You see the money that is sloshed around is nowhere where the markets can crash. I hope for all those who think I am bearish understand that I am only bearish on relative bases. That's paradoxically, how I find myself in agreement with John and with David. My heart is with David on the relative bases, but my calculations support John on the absolute bases. Confused... Sorry, I will try this again when I am more sober ( where are the mothers for "Do Not Drink And Blog")
Good Trading
16 comments:
Now that I've posted my long term view that the S&P 500 is probably going to 1800 this year, it's time for Dr. Jeykl to make his appearance.
The NDX is more overbought that at any time since January when it was on the verge of a 100 point decline or 5% decline and substantially more overbought that it was in February when we saw a 6% decline in 5 days.
I measure my "overboughtness" by the spread of the 5 day average vs the 14 day average. Right now we have a 2.14 standard deviation difference. The probability of NDX trading much higher from here seem to be remote...probably less than 1%.
What appears to me to be the most likely direction would be a sharp decline, maybe to 1975 with a possible decline to the low 1900's. That would resolve the parabolic rise and prepare the market for a substantial advance, as I said before, to about 18 on the S&P and 2400 on NDX.
I have no idea if this will happen, of course, but probability says it has better than a 50-50 chance of happening. As for me I'm 90% in cash and the remainder in low beta stocks.
Just an observation, take it for what it's worth.
John
Dear John,
Your observations are always golden. If we agree or disagree that is besides the point. You are a gentlman and your intentions and figures are honest attempt to convay a very, acceptable way the markets are viewed in many shops. I can not find any reason to disagree with the probabilities you bring. the only thing I say is that in "real terms" SPX is still lower than 2000 ( by 50%) and lower than in may by (2%)
Good Trading
It's interesting...you look at the SPX as being lower by 50% in real terms from 2000 and I prefer to look at it another way.
In 2000, the SPX peaked at 1527. The expectations in the market at that time was that the SPX would generate a 10% real rate of return. In reality and hindsight, we all look pretty foolish for feeling that way. In March of 2000, the 10 year was yielding about 6.50%.
Anyhow, the proper metric I like is what the S&P's shortfall versus expectations is. Had a person acquired the S&P on March 24, 2000 at 1527, he was expecting a return of about 10%.
Today, based upon those expectations, the S&P would have to be priced at 3114 just for him to match his expectations.
Assume he had opted to buy the 10 year at 6.50%. Today, the same 1527 would be worth 2460...still a far cry from 1552.
I agree the market has failed this decade to match expectations. It's even failed to match Treasuries. And priced in foreign currency, it's been a disgrace.
However, I do believe that American corporations are run by some of the brightest people in the world and they also see the problems...and they are going to fix them.
But before they can, we must allow them to work. Curtail government spending, subsidize education, get realistic about defense, and even though I am old enough to collect, abolish Social Security and replace it with some form of welfare directly from the general fund.
Ok ...enough ranting.
John
John, per Brett, the rally has seen limited participation.
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2007/07/how-strong-is-this-rally.html
Buying stocks that move the indexes ?
John, said.
"However, I do believe that American corporations are run by some of the brightest people in the world and they also see the problems...and they are going to fix them."
I agree with most of the things, in your statments, but I think you are missing this. These are not American Corporations. These are International Corporations, many of which are domiciled in USA, cause they want and need American Millitary Protecion.
I am sorry to disagree with you, but these corporations have very little interest in US as individuals. They gladly make us as big of slaves as they do with CHinese and Indians and Vietnamese.
You are good man JOhn, but rose colored galsses do not help. Must take them off and see the world for what it is.
Lenin said "capitalist will sell the rope that will be used to hang them"
Well the rope is sold to chinese and now the secretury of HUD is in Chine to convince them to buy our Mortgages. What a disgrace Dear John. I share your nostalgia for the past, but future is not there.
Not until, public outcry sweeps DEMS/REPS and RATS with it.
Good Trading
My Dear David,
You are so correct, Just look at the SPX pressure chart and tell me what is the number of stocks in the buy pressure doing. Buy Pressure has generated lower and lower highs for how long? See the chart.
We have all the tools to justify your statement. And that is being very respectful to other sources. Confirmation can not hurt.
The Private Captal is Wounded and Furious they want BOZOS to buy stocks they must give to someone. They can not hold it, do you see?
They and their friedns in corportate treasuries ( who want to do the the same, sell the worhtless stocks back to public, see answer to John). Do you relize the pressure the SOPTILAISTS apply to get the US in the stocks?
Welcome to awakaning.
Good Trading
Dear Boris, I can only correlate what I see in the markets behavior to your prescient charts. I'm still learning the parameters that make the charts move.
I sense desperation in the surge from this past Thursday. I also sense it's nearly do or die time for the dollar, the economy and the markets. Either the Fed restricts money supply and raises rates, or the world wide market will do it for us. The latter medicine could get very ugly.
On a social note, these circumstances ripen the opportunity for grand deception. A deception that would divert attention away from the REAL problems in the currency and bond markets, and/or perhaps help to strengthen the dollar. I think I just heard 'lock and load'. Who's next on the chopping block ? Iran ?
I hope not, just raise the dag gone rates and get the recession over with. Makes too much sense.
Daveo
Dear David,
AAAAMMMMEEEEN.
Could not say it better.
Good Trading
Boris,
I do not consider a 5% correction a crash, and I'll bet that's all we get.
And just why would you get sober on a Saturday!! If my wife weren't here with some of the kids, I'd be in the same condition!!
I don't think your position is that far from mine...I just think that capitalism will eventually get rid of the corruption in government...and maybe some day we will become citizens of some conglomerate.
The one thing I certainly know is there is more dishonesty and corruption in government than in corporate America. And eventually it will come to light.
Where is Adam Smith when we need him? Come to think of it, where are the great politicians? It is a disgrace how this country has allowed the dumbing down of the President. Maybe we ought to dig up Jefferson or Adams or Madison.
Enough ranting.
John
Dear John,
Looks like our views are converging. I, actually, think that really flexible minds can not come up with more than what you state here.
A desire, hope and drive to dor right thing by all.
This maybe humanly impossible, but we must start somewhere.
Government being in Unholy cabal with business to enslave people is now in full force. The only it could get worse is by actually arms and conflict and civil unrest. So, I hope as you do that we find a common sense to throw out corrupt government offices and officers and start a new.
This site, a tiny and sincere part of that hope and drive.
Good Trading
Boris, I understand DEM/REP, but who are the RATs?
Your wold view is same as mine, and I am actually sober now :)
Dear Greene,
Ditto: and I am sober now too
Good Trading
Dear Greene, RATS are everyone who is go between and blind ( do not want to disturb comfort of profits from the goings on) or purposefull supporters ( media which distorts the truth ).
Good Trading
Boris
Any input on FPL. Up until recently, it was peforming fine. I owed it thru my pension/401k plan but recent changes allow me to sell it and diversify. I already started doing that but should I do it more aggresively. I would appreciate any opinion you may have. Thanks for the great job you do.
Dear JP,
To answer you question exacly, I would need to know what part of you sotck portfolio PART of your portfolio FPL is. I hope not cnfusing above.
So let us say that you have 100,000.00 in your total portfolio and you happen to be of age 50 then your portfolio is likely to have 50,000.00 in stocks. Than if FPL is 10% of it I would suggest that you bring it down to less than and no more to 4% = 2,000.00
Is this clear?
If not ask again. I am not crazy about this stock, even as it was darling of last 5 years. Interest rates entering secular uptrend I am not going to advise you to load up on this one.
I could do somewhat well, thoug as it is big in WIND power generation. Good Luck. And GOod Trading and if my memory is correct, welcome to our house as your call seems to be the first.
Post a Comment