Jim Taylor, JD said... Forseeable BOUNCE for NDX100 at 2025 completed at 2059.5.
Bounce Levels Below: 2048 2036 2025
Jim
7/19/2007 11:27 AM
Has anybody noticed QID low 40.63!, see the post below.
12 comments:
Anonymous
said...
re EUR:
With EUR/USD trading at 1.3820, RSI is heading in to close its ninth day above 80.0. Looking back over the past 21/2 years this phenomenon has only occurred three times, Nov 24/ Dec 1 '04; May 4/ May 12 '06; and Nov 23/ Dec 5 '06. In two out of three of those incidences RSI unwound, spot rallied to a high within 10pts of the previous high that coincided with the peak in RSI, then slipped 5 big figs. On the third occasion, being the Nov 24 '04 series, spot managed to eke out another 2 big figs to the topside, but couldn't top the previous RSI top, and proceeded to drop 9 big figs after the RSI divergence.
This would suggest that RSI should break back below 80.0 within the next three days, that spot will dip and make another stab at the top, and will either stall at the same level (1.3833 so far) or possibly grind out a 1.40 handle, and peak between 1.4000-50. On every other occasion RSI has been over 80.0 in the past 21/2 years it has only lasted there for a day or two.
Over the same 21/2 year period on the weekly study, RSI has only broken above 75.0 on three occasions, lasting 2-wks, 1-wk, 3-wks respectively. Today RSI on the weekly is at 77.5, it broke above 75.0 last week, and therefore to equal the previous record could go one more week. The peak in RSI over this period was 79.6. After each occasion the results were similar to those on the daily study. As they always say on mutual funds, past results do not guarantee future performance, but it does give one pause for thought.
Dear Waldo, I do not think you should have runaway market tomorrow, so shorting today may have been an OK thing to do, but for my taste I prefer to see the market open and have the limits ( daily) that I can place orders against.
I will publish tomorrows gages and limits and that should give you enough to work with. I will attempt to remember and publish the r2k limits tomorrow.
Any views on MFS.ax. I bought on a dip to 5.50 for a swing trade and was targeting around 5.9-6.16. If target is reached, what do you think are the odds of coming back down to 5.50?
Dear Jebuskrite, My Earlyfirst target is 7. It has supported on 60% FIB retracment. There can be very few setups like this. If it still drops below 5.5 than markets are simply bad and there is no point being in them. Considering the business they are in, Investment management and consulting, they may even have some anti-market feature? The Yeild is great. What is not to like. I believe and hope that this one has much better than 50/50 chance to stay up.
Boris, Can you explain how you place orders against your daily limits? I know this must be a very stupid Question. I also follwow the r2k. limits for this index would be great. I thank you and every one who contributes to your blog. I wish you the best, Chris
Dear Chronictown, the way we place the stops is mostly a risk determination. We would not like to lose more than .5% on any trade value. So, if the trade is 1000 Dollars than 5 Dollars is all we want to risk, in reality we play with 10000 or more Dollars at a time so the risk is in the range of 30-50 lunch money!
That is very simple, we could allow a bit more for a volatile market.
Now this guarantees that we never even come close to being nocked out and it would take unprobable 25-50 losses with not much gains in between to screw us.
Yes, I will place the R2k Limits.
Any more questions? or if I did not answer what you were looking for, ask again.
Dear Readers,Chronictown. For example look at last mornings post. It asked for 4-5c on QUID ( assume one trades 100-300) shares. and the limit was 40.63 which was unbelievably exact...
12 comments:
re EUR:
With EUR/USD trading at 1.3820, RSI is heading in to
close its ninth day above 80.0. Looking back over the past 21/2 years
this phenomenon has only occurred three times, Nov 24/ Dec 1 '04; May 4/
May 12 '06; and Nov 23/ Dec 5 '06. In two out of three of those
incidences RSI unwound, spot rallied to a high within 10pts of the
previous high that coincided with the peak in RSI, then slipped 5 big
figs. On the third occasion, being the Nov 24 '04 series, spot managed
to eke out another 2 big figs to the topside, but couldn't top the
previous RSI top, and proceeded to drop 9 big figs after the RSI divergence.
This would suggest that RSI should break back below 80.0 within the next
three days, that spot will dip and make another stab at the top, and
will either stall at the same level (1.3833 so far) or possibly grind
out a 1.40 handle, and peak between 1.4000-50. On every other occasion
RSI has been over 80.0 in the past 21/2 years it has only lasted there
for a day or two.
Over the same 21/2 year period on the weekly study, RSI has only broken
above 75.0 on three occasions, lasting 2-wks, 1-wk, 3-wks respectively.
Today RSI on the weekly is at 77.5, it broke above 75.0 last week, and
therefore to equal the previous record could go one more week. The peak
in RSI over this period was 79.6. After each occasion the results were
similar to those on the daily study. As they always say on mutual funds,
past results do not guarantee future performance, but it does give one
pause for thought.
Dear Dxb, Agree, weith your prognostication ( nice one, good Job)...
140 +-0.50 is my top projection for a long time now, which just suites your analysis fine.
Good trading
Hi BORIS,
will we see EUR/USD down to 1.37 in next 2-4 days and after go back and up to 1.40 + ?
thanks.
Boris, you are a genius hitting qid to the penny. Is it safe to short iwm at these prices. That's r2k which I'm sure you knew.
Dear Valry,
We could do that, and we could just do it in the reverse order. It is difficult for me to speculate on exact order.
Do not forget that trip to 140 is not guaranteed either.
But we can not ignore that attraction point completely.
these point have a habit of being hit, just like the 2.0576 was hit within 20 points ( amazing)...
Good Trading
Dear Waldo, I do not think you should have runaway market tomorrow, so shorting today may have been an OK thing to do, but for my taste I prefer to see the market open and have the limits ( daily) that I can place orders against.
I will publish tomorrows gages and limits and that should give you enough to work with.
I will attempt to remember and publish the r2k limits tomorrow.
Good Night and good trading
Hi Boris,
Any views on MFS.ax. I bought on a dip to 5.50 for a swing trade and was targeting around 5.9-6.16. If target is reached, what do you think are the odds of coming back down to 5.50?
Dear Jebuskrite,
My Earlyfirst target is 7. It has supported on 60% FIB retracment. There can be very few setups like this. If it still drops below 5.5 than markets are simply bad and there is no point being in them. Considering the business they are in, Investment management and consulting, they may even have some anti-market feature? The Yeild is great.
What is not to like. I believe and hope that this one has much better than 50/50 chance to stay up.
Good Trading
Boris, Can you explain how you place orders against your daily limits? I know this must be a very stupid Question. I also follwow the r2k. limits for this index would be great. I thank you and every one who contributes to your blog. I wish you the best, Chris
Dear Chronictown, the way we place the stops is mostly a risk determination. We would not like to lose more than .5% on any trade value. So, if the trade is 1000 Dollars than 5 Dollars is all we want to risk, in reality we play with 10000 or more Dollars at a time so the risk is in the range of 30-50 lunch money!
That is very simple, we could allow a bit more for a volatile market.
Now this guarantees that we never even come close to being nocked out and it would take unprobable 25-50 losses with not much gains in between to screw us.
Yes, I will place the R2k Limits.
Any more questions? or if I did not answer what you were looking for, ask again.
Good Trading
Dear Readers,Chronictown. For example look at last mornings post. It asked for 4-5c on QUID ( assume one trades 100-300) shares. and the limit was 40.63 which was unbelievably exact...
Good Trading
Hi Boris,
AT CLUSTER:
13866
2692
1541
Bounce or CRASH.
Jim
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