Dear Readers Preliminary limits. Low volaitility. They could change with higher volatility. We are monitoring.
qqqq 43.23approached(.05,42.75) - 44.13
gld 63.48 - 64.59
fxe 129.26(.20,.12).20was hit - 129.53 Huge number PUTS 129/130 Do you feel it?
uso 45.51 - 45.78 ( .98,46.25)hit above 4th Resistance!?
gg 26.85 - 27.15
Good Trading
7 comments:
Boris, i think the market is almost or near its last leg up and it wants to go lower. I think home builders will lead the stock market down. The sell pressure/volume on the home builder stocks has been relentless and I think that the institution knows how important real estate is to the US economy. housing tanks.. wealth effects fall, rising debt which leads to less consumption. and i read that 70% of US GDP is based on consumption. Plus a possible military strike in IRAN??
fundementals do not look good here.
Greetings Dear Rent, If indeed the market are getting ready to dive, I certainly agree that housing will not do so well. Why simply because interest rates will not go down this time as they did last times around. This thinking the IR go down whe stocks go down is so 1990ish. Does anybody remember what IR's did in 1970's? they went up as markets went down. I think we are suddenly going to get into that mode, one of these days and people, "new investors" will be surprised. HA, IR's going up, how come mr helicopter ( Bernanke ) can not take them down anymore, how come the bond vigilantes came back. Where were they all this time. This time it will not be Mr Bill Gross ( PIMCO or PIMPO-from bond pimp) a new vigilanty. It will be somebody new that has not been mellowed by the "maestro market". That will look bad and good for housing market and it will go down like 1974 again. But my friend be there and buy houses and housing stocks after that, because the helcompter will finally take off and there will be money rain, likes of which has not been seen in a long time. We will be in the stagflation where housing will be viewed as one of the few nonrenegate antiinflation investment. People will finally realize that TIP's are not protecting them as goventment managed inflation will be miles different from the real one and GOLD will be dancing in the streets. Well, I got carried a bit did not I. let us take it a step by step. We will seee home much of this nightmare is going to come about. Good Trading Dear Rent.
Dear Boris: I've been reading past posts to catch up. Todays action in the Dow looks like you're right. 2 bad days don't make a nuclear winter, but it looks like the uptrend is now finally breaking.
Gold - forming a bottom today for another run at 650?
About housing - it we look at $hgx I think we see the top in homebuilders.
advice please - puts on hgx, qqqq and dia?
Best Nick
Der Nick, Welcome to our house. You are right that two bad days do not make winter. Our approach is more of a "I do not know", but "I can feel it". Which means this... We use very precise short term intraday indicators to take the positions. It may turn out to be a local top/bottom or global one( meaning will last few weeks). Last time we "felt" that way was excatly two days ago and you see why. Our systems were telling us to feel bearish. Now we say around here that "train comes every day for traders", which means we do not chase the markets, we let them com back to our "attraction points" and then we hit them. Now it would have been nice to be there 2 days ago be short today, as adviced, one would just put a "profit loss" stop and go play ball, but now we will have to wait for another opportunity to go short/long, whatever our system dictates. Yes we feel that on a intermediate bases market should keep going lower, but we do not take the risks that way. Intermediate/long term starts with us at short term. This means we wait to get the short term bounce within the longer term downtrend. So hang on with us and hopefully we will hop again on next train. The same goes with everything you would like to trade $hgx or other instruments. We can not tell you what to do, you decide that, we can tell you what to do by not doing it ourselves. By default if I do not say play or better yet play myself, that means we said there is nothing to do today. We are glad you join us Dear Nick and wish you Good Trading
Dear Nick, I hear you about GOLD it has a chance to go into explosive mode right from the morning of Monday. I prefer and believe it will be on the upside... so, how do we play this one. perhaps deep out of the money calls, so you do not get hurt if it does not happen. Good Trading
I loaded up on GG and will wait to load up more if it comes down. Also got into silver. Gold has a strong probablity of making a move this year in 2007 and may break its high. I place a very large bet on this and hope I am not wrong.
Boris, what's your opinion on uranium. I know that oil prices have been trending down but I think that is short term and will come back stronger than before and that means uranium will continue its uptrend. Opinions?
Dear Rent, I welcome back. I believe GOLD is in an unique position to rise over next 12-24 months. Having that said, I would like to approach it day buy day, asking for it to prove our assumption. I believe there could be a safer time to load up on GOLD around the end of FEB 2007, but small exposure can not hurt much now either. Same goes with Uraniums, I would like the late part of FEB to have behind me before I would start recommending "Loading" up on all forms of energy. I could be late though, so again some exposure, I do not mind in this area either. Good Trading
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