Dear Readers, the financials communications and tech are running SPX up, while DOW and QQQQ lag. I like to sell QQQQ here, but not much time left for trading, would prefer going short early in the day not late. See the picture of uppers and downers on SPX. So Let us see... 25% of the SPX move is made possible by 2% of the stock population??? Good Trading
5 comments:
hi Boris,
I just sold MXG.ax (for 4.12) yesterday and now today its rocketed to 5 (after announcement of 3rd party approach). This is the most f-ked up trade!!! :(.
Do you reckon its worth reentering (there may be a potential to reach 5.5 now). Where would you reenter? I'm thinking around 4.6-4.85 (depending on where it closes today).
Thanks.
Dear Jebuskrite, the next levels are 5.3 and 5.6 roughly. In a longer run this one can go 6.25 and 7.0... These are hard levels to be cracked immediately, but that may be what will happen anyway. There is no book (: :) that could tell us how to enter this sucker now, but if you follow the rule I outlined for you last time, about retracement and then a four bar breakout on a smaller scale ( 15 or 5 minute chart ) that is the best we can do. That is what I would use. Of course one can wait for any kind of FIBO retracements, not sure if and when they will happen. If intraday chart was easily accessible to me I could predict daily highs and lows for you... unfortunately that is not the case. Good Trading
Dear Jenbuskrite, It seems to me that I actually found the intraday delayd chart for this stock, but I am soundle asleep when this stock starts trading day. That is a problem. Good Trading.
When you say "retracement and then a four bar breakout on a smaller scale", do you mean retracement after this large breakout, and then a 4 bar breakout of the high of the first breakout? Does buying this 'breakout' on the smaller scale tend to reliable for 1/2 week holds in the long run? I'm just saying this because because I don't really do intraday or overnight holds unless potential gains have a high probability of exceeding 4-5%, since brokerage and stop orders altogether cost 0.6% per trade.
With Fib retracements (i know it might not work here though), where would you actually put it on a stock like MXG.ax, from 4.12-5.00 or 3.75-5.00?
Thanks as always.
Dear Jebuskrite, Ok here is what I mean. At any time during the day say 10:00AM suppose the stock has retraced, what you may think a reasonable retracement( like it has stopped around 20 bar average). Now, you look for a bounce from here so that the carrent bar has hit the highest of the last 4 bars ( including the current ). You buy there and place the stop below the lowest low of that last 4 bars ( again including the current bar). Remember this is also around the 20 bar avarage ( that is where you were watching for a bounce from). Considering this a support line, it has a high probability of holding.
As far as FIB replacements it is just a standard 40/50/60 % retracements of the last move ( I would take 50% or better yet 60% if it happens, but we may not get either, I am affraid). So i would try the combod of 20bar and FIB support if it happens, if not would go for just 20bar support. It all depends how "hot" you are on this stock. It is certainly hot stock at this moment. Take this calm. As we say in this business there is a train coming in every day in our station. Good Trading
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