Friday, January 12, 2007
If not Down Then Up
Dear Readers, the market that will not go down, will go up. That is just a bit of a truth that was creeping in our latest commentary of the market pressure readings. Just as well. That is the value of the tool it keeps us honest about ourselves and our investments whatever our natural biases.
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10 comments:
it's easy to say i told you so but i was waiting for that assessment!
as U mentioned, can't give in to our natural biases..
any ideas on where gold is heading next week or the next?
thanks Boris
for the bulls to say i told U so, i mean..
looks like everyone's home.. thanks for the commentary all and see u next week
Dear DXB, I appreciate the sentiment. You know, a lot of friends that come toghether on this site, have natural biasis, just as all of us in life. What I'am trying my hardest to do is to instill two unbreakable principles:
1) Do not lose money
2) Learn how to do that
Now 1) easy to say, but it is the 2) that gives the meaning to it. One can not do the first without haveing an objective system that tells one what to do, regardless of his/her biases. Now, one either works this mechanical systme on his/her own or gets it somwhere. We are here to provide that. I could never understand all the good things old traders said, until worked and developed my own system that every morning tells me what it wants to say and does not give a SH.. what I think or anybody thinks. That a discipline you can not buy without the system like market PRESSURE.
I believe that Gold has a nice chance of having a good momentum upto, at least 19 Jan , and perhaps all the way to the end of it, which with some interruptions then should continue into Feb/earlyMarch. After that I expect another 3-4 months down and then the jurney up towards 1000+ . Thanks for being with us Dear DXB. Good Trading
Right now, unless something unexpected happens, this market will continue to charge upwards. Dow 13k is likely (just for the sake of setting something historic), however, that will be the nail in the bulls coffin as all the media will be over it to suck in the retail investors. I still think the top will be formed over Feb to early May.
My guess is that next weeks CPI/PPI will continue to look good and will accelerate this runup.
Yeah.. the market looks strong but I think that the slightless bad news will send the market down quick. I don't know what to make of it and continue to watch.
There are still opportunities such as SNDK. It looks like it will head back to 60 and starting to make a cup and handle formation.
Gold has long term support and will make new highs IMHO.
Still short on the home builders and the RE market may look ugly coming this spring. Too may messages about a soft landing for housing. Still in denial???
Dear Jebuskrite/Rent.
I agree with the basic principle that market needs to reverse as a lot is discounted by it. As mentioned by you any "bad news" will... I agree. The only thing is that market, as we previously described, is a PFL ( positive feedback loop ) and in that sense until there is fire on the input PFL will keep burning. That fuel is currently supplied buy the liquidity created by buyout firms and option(putoption) buyers. First makes the stocks looke desireable ( they have the money, believe or not) and takeovers just reduce the "avialable paper" and option buyers keep the isnurance agents ( option writers ) in business. Until both of these chains break and FED stops putting the oil on fire ( gobs of money ) it will not be over. Now, this desepearnce of liquidify will not be announced, it will just happen. Liquidity is created by perceptions. Perception that giving money buyout artists (private equities ) is profitable has to get blown away by some event(s), that pshyclology change will rquire the outside market event. And we may get it. In the form of Israel/West(perhaps) finally attacking Iran or OIL supply shortage created by sabbotage somewhere. Or big fund blowout at other places or the total loss of confidence of oversees investors in $Dollar, or the hard housing collapse in USA. There are plenty of things that alone and/or in combo could bring the kind of a change we are talking about. More likely, though is that first the markets will start declining, cause the biggest buyout artists have understood the approach of the "END", and that by itself will cause the chain of reaction. Let us remember, all of the KKR and CARLILES of the world knwo that things can not grow to the SKY...
Thanks For your contributions and please accept my two cents worth.
Our self described job is ... first lose no money , second be on the short side as soon as the winds start blowing in wrong direction. Good Trading
Boris, a couple of quotes that have stood me well recently (too bad I didn't pay heed to them enough previous years!):
"Never short a dull market."
"Trading is easy - just buy stocks that are going up. If they don't go up, don't buy them."
(attributed to Will Rogers)
Regards,
Dear Cobbense, good to hear from you. And I agree with the statments "sayings" you bring. We have a tendency to go down on ourselves and our past and that is ok as far learning goes, but go back and think, "did we really understand" what these sentences meant for us. I doubt it. We knew instinctively that there was some good in them, but did not know how to implement them. Until implemented these are just words. That is why as we mature as traders we develoop tools and put these statments in some framework we better understand what thes things mean "to us". Remember, even to very seasoned traders these sentences mean different things, but they make them work their own way. That is the reason I keep asking people to adopt a framework within which all of these good sentences, teachings can fit. I hope we, here, do some good by actually providing a good framework to fit the things in. Thanks for your comments Cobbense. We value those. Good Trading
Boris,
NFI is I think doing a dead cat bounce for now, I feel a somewhat lower low ahead fairly soon, perhaps 21 - 22. There it should be a buy into the next report / exdiv. date.
Then we'll see, it could take quiter some tinme for it to really turn around. But the only thing that should really break it would be a serious financial crisis of some sort, housing related or otherwise. Which could of course happen in this best of all possible credit-insured world. . .
Also the nat.gas stocks (CHK, EOG, XTO) are I think doing dead cat bounces for now. These should be buys at possibly significantly lower levels in about 2 - 4 months or so I am guessing for now.
The whole oil&gas sector "should" bottom out somewhat ahead of oil & gas as commodities, worth keeping some powder dry and an eye on all of these I think.
Regards,
Dear Cobbense.
NFI... Could go 19 as a minimum, that is just my opinion, before it recovers.
25, 56,41 are my possible projectio lows for CHK,EOG,XTO. Yes I agree that many of the energy sector stocks are/will have the dead cat bounce. I bought some Trusts for a trade again.
Good Trading
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