Dollar Bears/Gold Bulls Hands UP
OK, we see you. GO back to what you have been doing(:-. Yes, Energy Bulls As well!
Having that said, Those who bought GOLD/SILVER puts, please collect as the rebound may develop any time. Not to new highs ( highly unlikely for this moment). Purchases are not recommended at all, except with totally worthless out of the money Call Options.
Dollar may also look for a bit of a rest from big gains past week.
Ok, should we join the Brutish EURO! with Brutish Pound? Please watch out rebound in Feb is shaping up, though(monitor GROUPTATION link, Yes, my morning starts there too)
04:00 ET, As the above was written, expectation were developing exactly as stated. Gold and Currencies started the rebound. Hallelujah!
07:14 ET, Now , you know by now, that however smart I maybe, I do not really know where the tops and bottoms are right? So, do what I do, get a stick, close the EYES and look for the sopts to enter and exit. Feeling I have we are at or near bottom, but it does not count. Your trading - DOES.
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Monday, January 21, 2008
Have You Seen Gold Lately
Dear Readers, We advised, people to buy GOLD PUT options... hardly 10 days ago(GOLD was around 910 that time and Silver 16.5!). Well, if you did then congratulations. I did not, I had other chicken to fry so to speak... and I am kicking myself you know where. GOLD is down $20(862) as we speak and the Silver is down 60c(15.50). Hallelujah!
And Yes, please collect 50/75% now and let the rest ride...
And Yes, tell your friends, too look into those asset OSCILLATORS in the GROUPTATION section. That is what I did to advise you, but you do not need me as long as you have the GROUPTATION. By the way story was the same. While cyclically we called the turn in Dollar for 17 January, the key came from the same... GROUPTATION Dollar Oscillator.
Long live GROUPTATION!(and enourmous thanks to IVAN for maintaining it)
So you want to know how are you doing fellow USA citizen? Sorry here is how ( look at the end of this page, "sorry to blow...")
Yes, if you had a 1 Dollar in the market since July 2007, it now has a purchasing power of 40c
And Yes, please collect 50/75% now and let the rest ride...
And Yes, tell your friends, too look into those asset OSCILLATORS in the GROUPTATION section. That is what I did to advise you, but you do not need me as long as you have the GROUPTATION. By the way story was the same. While cyclically we called the turn in Dollar for 17 January, the key came from the same... GROUPTATION Dollar Oscillator.
Long live GROUPTATION!(and enourmous thanks to IVAN for maintaining it)
So you want to know how are you doing fellow USA citizen? Sorry here is how ( look at the end of this page, "sorry to blow...")
Yes, if you had a 1 Dollar in the market since July 2007, it now has a purchasing power of 40c
Friday, January 18, 2008
Thanks For Being With Us
Dollar has turned against EURO. We may not see EURO more than 1.50 considerable time.
GBP is in the dumpsters and will continue to be there with an on and off rallies.
YEN, has a chance of one more spike below 106-5 and down thereafter
GOLD has likely topped for the time being
ENERGY ditto Gold
For More about Asset Classes See Grouptation Updated(Thanks Ivan).
Dear Readers The National SOPITALIST Casino will soon be closed for today and the Wall Street ( WELFARE STATE ) will go to burbs to count money they screwed ordinary citizens out of.
Members traded, but did not have reports, I traded today several times and there was no losing trade, few ended up even, but Majority ended up winning 20-23c per trade. Now, please observe that I made about 8 trades past 7 days with the incredible precision of no loses and 6 Wins. Few of these trades yielded 60-70c and on the average I got close to 35c on each trade. Now, why do I recount that?
Cause, all trades were made counter prevailing trend? Nobody told me I am in the bear market, except myself. Remember I rang the Bell in May 2007 ( real SPX top, see picture at this page end). The idea being that to make money in the markets you do not need to know anything, but the short term swing info and use good management techniques. Did you notice, that in no trade I risked more than 10c and often not even 5c. It did not matter what FED did, what Bloomberg/CNN/FOX or anybody said. These trades were purely technical trades. I can also tell, even as you know this already: I am not wave counter use no averages of any kind. Most of what I use is a DIGITAL info, such as ATTRACTION POINTS. EXHAUSTION EVENTS, BAR COUNTING/PROJECTION.
Now, there are other times, when I struggle, but important thing is I do not lose much, max 10c and I am gone waiting for another bus, having totally forgotten about the previous trade...
All of these help to "trade with some frustration, but without pain", pinpoint the turnaround times and price levels. Well, I hope we are all learning, cause this is the goal. To help you realise that you can do it. Those SOPITALISTS have nothing on you.
GBP is in the dumpsters and will continue to be there with an on and off rallies.
YEN, has a chance of one more spike below 106-5 and down thereafter
GOLD has likely topped for the time being
ENERGY ditto Gold
For More about Asset Classes See Grouptation Updated(Thanks Ivan).
Dear Readers The National SOPITALIST Casino will soon be closed for today and the Wall Street ( WELFARE STATE ) will go to burbs to count money they screwed ordinary citizens out of.
Members traded, but did not have reports, I traded today several times and there was no losing trade, few ended up even, but Majority ended up winning 20-23c per trade. Now, please observe that I made about 8 trades past 7 days with the incredible precision of no loses and 6 Wins. Few of these trades yielded 60-70c and on the average I got close to 35c on each trade. Now, why do I recount that?
Cause, all trades were made counter prevailing trend? Nobody told me I am in the bear market, except myself. Remember I rang the Bell in May 2007 ( real SPX top, see picture at this page end). The idea being that to make money in the markets you do not need to know anything, but the short term swing info and use good management techniques. Did you notice, that in no trade I risked more than 10c and often not even 5c. It did not matter what FED did, what Bloomberg/CNN/FOX or anybody said. These trades were purely technical trades. I can also tell, even as you know this already: I am not wave counter use no averages of any kind. Most of what I use is a DIGITAL info, such as ATTRACTION POINTS. EXHAUSTION EVENTS, BAR COUNTING/PROJECTION.
Now, there are other times, when I struggle, but important thing is I do not lose much, max 10c and I am gone waiting for another bus, having totally forgotten about the previous trade...
All of these help to "trade with some frustration, but without pain", pinpoint the turnaround times and price levels. Well, I hope we are all learning, cause this is the goal. To help you realise that you can do it. Those SOPITALISTS have nothing on you.
Attraction Points
SPX Daily projections, 1307.14,1301.59,1254.54,1178.69 - 1401
Intraday's are coming.
N QQQQ 45.60,45.53,45.51 - 45.97,46.05, 46.16 ,46.36, 46.59
5 min buy status risk a little here
10:02, ET stop at 45.49
10:03 ET stop 45.57 , I got 6c risk
10:05 ET stop 45.61
10:06 ET stop 45.64 break even for me+comis
10:08 ET stop 45.67
10:09 ET take 1/3 profit 45.97 MIT
10:10 ET 1/3 profit 23c , 2/3 rd stop 45.79
10:12 ET stop 1/3 of original at 45.99 rest at 45.79
10:15 ET stopped 1/3 rd 45.99 +42c, 1/3rd stop at 45.79
10:22 ET dropped stop on on 1/3rd to break even 45.63
Same Place Same Time, Deja vu all over again, As Yogi would say GOD Damn 46.06!
11:30 ET, Possible turn time! time to risk 10c+
11:32 ET, stop 45.39 Mental. risking 10c
11:34 ET, stop up 45.45 risk 4c
11:37 ET , stop up 45.49 risk ZERO
11:50 ET, just hit the 4t low 45.20, 5th stands 44.97
11:59 ET, QID 49!!!!! 7squared
12:30 Log Q from 45.12, rasing stops to 45.39
INVESTORS ADD 10% TOTAL MARKET
13:19 ET, out +27c
13:20 ET, Looks like SPX 1296 has a lot of attraction?
From my experience, MDS , usually catches the buy signals on a big down day(close near bottom) or on a big up day ( close near top). If we are going to get the first type then today closes hard low! If we are going to get the second type then we are expecting big rally at close, starting around 14-15Pm. Just heads up what to expect.
Dear Readers, we are within 1-1.5% from the bottom.
If we were to move more than 3% from here we will crater
Need to correct above statment, Correct calculations indicate a bottom within 5+-2%, but that does not mean this bottom is for now. The bottom I talk about here is a bottom that will be a bottom that will last few weeks at least and it may not come until February.
Another observation about the MDS buy signals. When they come on the Hard low closing, which is what we seem to be heading for, then there usually is a lower low the day after , in this case Tuesday, cause the Monday the markets are closed. This then brings us to a bottom on TUESDAY that usually is no lower than 1-1.5% from the close of the MDS buy day SPX close.
N SPX 1334, 1329 - 1349
N QID
Intraday's are coming.
N QQQQ 45.60,45.53,45.51 - 45.97,46.05, 46.16 ,46.36, 46.59
5 min buy status risk a little here
10:02, ET stop at 45.49
10:03 ET stop 45.57 , I got 6c risk
10:05 ET stop 45.61
10:06 ET stop 45.64 break even for me+comis
10:08 ET stop 45.67
10:09 ET take 1/3 profit 45.97 MIT
10:10 ET 1/3 profit 23c , 2/3 rd stop 45.79
10:12 ET stop 1/3 of original at 45.99 rest at 45.79
10:15 ET stopped 1/3 rd 45.99 +42c, 1/3rd stop at 45.79
10:22 ET dropped stop on on 1/3rd to break even 45.63
Same Place Same Time, Deja vu all over again, As Yogi would say GOD Damn 46.06!
11:30 ET, Possible turn time! time to risk 10c+
11:32 ET, stop 45.39 Mental. risking 10c
11:34 ET, stop up 45.45 risk 4c
11:37 ET , stop up 45.49 risk ZERO
11:50 ET, just hit the 4t low 45.20, 5th stands 44.97
11:59 ET, QID 49!!!!! 7squared
12:30 Log Q from 45.12, rasing stops to 45.39
INVESTORS ADD 10% TOTAL MARKET
13:19 ET, out +27c
13:20 ET, Looks like SPX 1296 has a lot of attraction?
From my experience, MDS , usually catches the buy signals on a big down day(close near bottom) or on a big up day ( close near top). If we are going to get the first type then today closes hard low! If we are going to get the second type then we are expecting big rally at close, starting around 14-15Pm. Just heads up what to expect.
Dear Readers, we are within 1-1.5% from the bottom.
If we were to move more than 3% from here we will crater
Need to correct above statment, Correct calculations indicate a bottom within 5+-2%, but that does not mean this bottom is for now. The bottom I talk about here is a bottom that will be a bottom that will last few weeks at least and it may not come until February.
Another observation about the MDS buy signals. When they come on the Hard low closing, which is what we seem to be heading for, then there usually is a lower low the day after , in this case Tuesday, cause the Monday the markets are closed. This then brings us to a bottom on TUESDAY that usually is no lower than 1-1.5% from the close of the MDS buy day SPX close.
N SPX 1334, 1329 - 1349
N QID
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Attraction Points
STOCK MARKET SYSTEM TURNS TO BBBB highest Buy it can be!
(with a little caveat of MDS anticipated BUY generation today at close). What does that mean? It means that likelihood is now very high of the turn being at hand within a day. Remember no guarantees here, just a likelihood! Caution, the cross is occurring at the low point for both oscillators(pink and white), which smells like a quick turn back(1-2 days) into sell, which did not prevent August 2007 to develop strong rally, but we are not in Kansas anymore!
(with a little caveat of MDS anticipated BUY generation today at close). What does that mean? It means that likelihood is now very high of the turn being at hand within a day. Remember no guarantees here, just a likelihood! Caution, the cross is occurring at the low point for both oscillators(pink and white), which smells like a quick turn back(1-2 days) into sell, which did not prevent August 2007 to develop strong rally, but we are not in Kansas anymore!
Dear Greenie, GBP status is 0,1,0,1,0, Until it gets the daily reversed into sell, one could give it a benefit of a doubt to some upside/sideways, but once Daily goes sell, forget it! this is lost currency, which shuld have never reached the highs it reached anyway, in short "Brutish Pound".
Please visit updated GROUPTATION link. Thanks Ivan, for hosting, updating and watching for correctness
Please visit updated GROUPTATION link. Thanks Ivan, for hosting, updating and watching for correctnessI will be out today till 13:00Pm ET or so. If you have any questions please ask ASAP before i leave in one hour or so. Comments, Please feel free to post as many comments as you like(::). Feel at home in absence
Sorry got to run, but here are the relevant SPX numbers ( not intraday)
SPX 1348 - 1407
Enjoy
10:28 ET, 1357.54 is the 4th Los, Fifth 1350.67. Considering how close the last one is to 1348, what do you think is likely to happen?
10:34 ET, 45.43 Q's 4th and 45.03 Q's 5h
10:37 ET, Likely turn time 10:35 Now! We do not want YEN to violate 105.50 either.
10:47,ET 46.06, YES the same as yesterday looms big. Once Broken, could remove barriers from Q's, Trail at 45.77 Mental
10:59 ET, Q Stops up 45.82
11:03 ET, Stops up 45.89
11:07 ET, Stops 45.96 mental, would be +7c for me, if stopped
11:29 ET, Out, I will try to buy if 46.24 broken,
11:33 ET, I Will try to buy 46.09 with 7c stop no more
11:40 ET, Out Total 0(ZERO)
11:50 ET, supported on 45.77 exactly(almost) as above, would not look good if it breaks this level again down.
11:56 ET, Q's Pivot around our two points looking for suckers(traders market)? (45.77 and 46.06)
12:13 ET, approach 45.43 4th
DEAR IVAN YOU ARE RIGHT, I GOT THE COLUMNS MIXED IN MY COPY Grouptation based copy is correct, I will republish
12:18 ET, if we were to get 5min BUY status here, I could buy Q's
12:20 ET, GOt it. Looking for ent
12:52 ET, So far missing the entry!
spx bottom so far within 1.5 points from our target 1347(wow), Q' lows 8c from our target
14:58 ET, hope 1346,1339(from 15 minute, more volatile action) holds or the next levels are 1318 and 1273 for today ( these come from daily)
Can not be guaranteed, but MDS is capable of generating a BUY signal on todays sharply lower close. If so I can not judge now, but early tomorrow morning, I will have the MDS current status. So, Why is tomorrow important.
1)Cause today is 17 Jan,
2)Cause tomorrow will be 6 th day from last MDS sell( profits usually come on 6th day),
3)Cause Tomorrow will be the 7th trading day from the last Bottom, look at the chart before, tests/breaks happen within 7-9 Trading days from previous bottom
Sorry got to run, but here are the relevant SPX numbers ( not intraday)
SPX 1348 - 1407
Enjoy
10:28 ET, 1357.54 is the 4th Los, Fifth 1350.67. Considering how close the last one is to 1348, what do you think is likely to happen?
10:34 ET, 45.43 Q's 4th and 45.03 Q's 5h
10:37 ET, Likely turn time 10:35 Now! We do not want YEN to violate 105.50 either.
10:47,ET 46.06, YES the same as yesterday looms big. Once Broken, could remove barriers from Q's, Trail at 45.77 Mental
10:59 ET, Q Stops up 45.82
11:03 ET, Stops up 45.89
11:07 ET, Stops 45.96 mental, would be +7c for me, if stopped
11:29 ET, Out, I will try to buy if 46.24 broken,
11:33 ET, I Will try to buy 46.09 with 7c stop no more
11:40 ET, Out Total 0(ZERO)
11:50 ET, supported on 45.77 exactly(almost) as above, would not look good if it breaks this level again down.
11:56 ET, Q's Pivot around our two points looking for suckers(traders market)? (45.77 and 46.06)
12:13 ET, approach 45.43 4th
DEAR IVAN YOU ARE RIGHT, I GOT THE COLUMNS MIXED IN MY COPY Grouptation based copy is correct, I will republish
12:18 ET, if we were to get 5min BUY status here, I could buy Q's
12:20 ET, GOt it. Looking for ent
12:52 ET, So far missing the entry!
spx bottom so far within 1.5 points from our target 1347(wow), Q' lows 8c from our target
14:58 ET, hope 1346,1339(from 15 minute, more volatile action) holds or the next levels are 1318 and 1273 for today ( these come from daily)
Can not be guaranteed, but MDS is capable of generating a BUY signal on todays sharply lower close. If so I can not judge now, but early tomorrow morning, I will have the MDS current status. So, Why is tomorrow important.
1)Cause today is 17 Jan,
2)Cause tomorrow will be 6 th day from last MDS sell( profits usually come on 6th day),
3)Cause Tomorrow will be the 7th trading day from the last Bottom, look at the chart before, tests/breaks happen within 7-9 Trading days from previous bottom
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Thanks For Being With Us
Please visit the updated ( Thanks Ivan) GROUPTATION Link for ASSET GROUP ROTATION Charts. Note the GOLD/ENERGY bend almost simultaneously with the PINK Oscillator and Dollar as well. Not clear what to make of Nasdaq, seems like a top, while we are at the bottom. Confusing as hell, but perhaps indications are that people are rotating out of tech!
Dear Readers The National SOPITALIST Casino will soon be closed for today and the Wall Street ( WELFARE STATE ) will go to burbs to count money they screwed ordinary citizens out of.
We traded today and collected almost 75c per Q share. Bought it 5 cents from the bottom and sold it 55 cents from the top(ouch -:). Gold... would you like to go back and take my advice to have sold the options 25-30 Dollars ago? who would not? Dollar... What can we say! BOTOOOOOM? Very likely. Is this $US Dollar strength why everything seems to be coming down? You will be the judge, in time , of course. Energy, it is just the same Anti-Dollar beast and it is bruised by Dollar as well.
Good Trading
Precision, Precision, Precision, this is the same in investments as Location,location,location in Real Estate and how did we do? JPY stops at exactly fifth top attraction point. Q's stop at the first top and close at the first bottom(HUH!). I did not even look at the rest.
00:58 ET, There does not seem to be much betterment in the PCratios so far. It still points higher, indicating market could follow lower. This is a time to be ready for anything. Even Lower JPY does not seem to be so good to the markets as substantial decoupling has occurred lately
IF 1364 HOLDS, SPX HEADS TO 1460
04:32 ET, JPY(quote) status 1,1,1,0,0
means sell,sell,sell,buy,buy wk/day/hour/15m/5m , Short term careful, intermediate/long term terrific Sell
04:47 ET, EUR(price) status 0,0,1,0,1
Short term very careful, intemediate/long term terrific Sell
Attraction Points
N QQQQ 45.89,45.60,45.10 - 46.93
N SPX 1376,1372 ,1359- 1390,1393,1398
N QID
10:47 ET, This looks like a possible time +-5 minutes
10:52 ET, Risk few cents here. No more than few CENTS!
10:57 ET, Q's stop at 45.44, my stops at break even 45.51
DID we nail the Q's bottom within a minute or what!
11:08 ET, My stops go up to 45.59
11:09 ET, GO YEN GO(DOWN), expect some reaction at 107.31
11:20 ET, Q stops up 45.72, taking close to 50c profit on 1/2
11:32 ET, YEN struggles with 107.30 Q's struggle with 46.06
11:58 ET, PULL UP Q stop 45.99
13:23 ET, Breaking down here below 46(was resistance now support) will look really bad.45.99 has , so far , survived by one cent!
13:32 ET, Survived Second Test, third , if / when comes will break down
14:12 ET, 14:20PM is another turn time, high? Out with 1/2 about 90c gain
14:37 ET, Market has called my bluff. It is ON sky is the limit? ( do not take me seriously), but Q's are doing better than I thought and I had made less money than I could have, I sold early, Hallelujah
14:45 ET, Q's are at the first and JPY is at the fifth, come on, this is hard. JPY has turned 2 points around!
GO DOLLAR GO! GO DOLLAR GO! GO DOLLAR GO!
15:42 OET, OK, market is selling off. It had no business jumping up after I sold, that is cheating(::), but USDollar is holding the most of gains
N SPX 1376,1372 ,1359- 1390,1393,1398
N QID
10:47 ET, This looks like a possible time +-5 minutes
10:52 ET, Risk few cents here. No more than few CENTS!
10:57 ET, Q's stop at 45.44, my stops at break even 45.51
DID we nail the Q's bottom within a minute or what!
11:08 ET, My stops go up to 45.59
11:09 ET, GO YEN GO(DOWN), expect some reaction at 107.31
11:20 ET, Q stops up 45.72, taking close to 50c profit on 1/2
11:32 ET, YEN struggles with 107.30 Q's struggle with 46.06
11:58 ET, PULL UP Q stop 45.99
13:23 ET, Breaking down here below 46(was resistance now support) will look really bad.45.99 has , so far , survived by one cent!
13:32 ET, Survived Second Test, third , if / when comes will break down
14:12 ET, 14:20PM is another turn time, high? Out with 1/2 about 90c gain
14:37 ET, Market has called my bluff. It is ON sky is the limit? ( do not take me seriously), but Q's are doing better than I thought and I had made less money than I could have, I sold early, Hallelujah
14:45 ET, Q's are at the first and JPY is at the fifth, come on, this is hard. JPY has turned 2 points around!
GO DOLLAR GO! GO DOLLAR GO! GO DOLLAR GO!
15:42 OET, OK, market is selling off. It had no business jumping up after I sold, that is cheating(::), but USDollar is holding the most of gains
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