N QQQQ 43.07,42.87 - 43.61,43.81,44.06
N SPX 1326,1322 - 1334,1331(1341 typo),1348
Dear Readers, those not feeling comfortable putting email in the blog, email me at bchikvash@aol.com
10:30 ET, looks like we got stiff resistance at first on SPX
Please note, the dates 7-13 are important turning dates, the real question is are in for a high or low? Just finding out...
11:10 ET, Market is showing no signs of wanting to break down here, Is 12-13 feb high becoming more likely? The only problem I have with this is that Market has not provided 'really good opportunity" to buy more shares as we asked investors to buy (up to 5%) which would have brought the total stocks holdings to about 40-45%, Well do not fight the tape as they say and if market clears second AP here then we could be heading into 1350 range for SPX, Also I expect YEN(quote) to weaken(get stronger in price) sometime early next week and I also expect GOLD to move to a short cycle low into DEC (FEB stupid boris, typo again)12. So, the stock market high, just does not seem to be in concert with all of this! Remember though, since YBR/wbr call for late FEB, early March low, perhaps the FEB 12 high better fits the scenario, cause we would get the sell on rally not on decline, right? so the mid FEB sell could give YBR what it wants(low Early march)
11:52 ET, Having all that said, There maybe a little reason to get overly excited about things here. CNBC could play every day as if it was a SUPERBOWL game, but we could be in what I call meandering( love this word, what would i do without it) phase, where market just meanders into March and April without making big noise and new lows? Then turn up higher into Jul/Aug and down into OCTober 2008. Would not that be classic and would not that justify our call to be in quality high yield stocks? You get paid to watch the grass grow!
12:16 ET, Dear John, thanks, YOU SEE JPY status 1,1,0,1,0 is short term JPY strong indicator and stocks-weak indication. So, for a while this morning market seemd to swim against that, but now turned lower. I hate to say this word again, but if are to get the MDS buy on a low volatility meandering move, it would be tough thing for a short term intrady trader as the swings may diminsh. BUT for highyield quality stocks, that is NIRVANA
Ok, now let us look at the following possibilities if we close on the downside today(sharply)
One - we get the lows by next mid week and turn up sharply.
Two- we do not turn up sharply and contiue lower into Early March
both of these scenarios could be within the confines of meandering ( which is where my preferred forecast is, PERHAPS BECAUSE I BADLY NEED VACATION FROM FRIKIN MARKETS(:- )
14:30 ET, with the way JPY acted today, we can get nothing but meandering. 50c range today in JPY! does that sum it up or what?
So, let us say(almost sure) we get a buy today in Stock Market. that would mean that a trader puts on close to 15-20% of trading capital to work ( long in this case). Waits for next couple days and puts antohter 15-20% if the position is still available ( market is lower). For an INVESTOR though we are already at where I think we should be in Stocks at this juncture. So nothing to do.
(CaVEATE, Trader, better put the Long on the Open, to prevent having sleepless weekend)
67 comments:
Morning all,
I've completed my LPNT short for the last few weeks this morning, it did me well.
Boris, if you don't mind including my email on the MDS updates, it would be appreciated.
brandonjwallace@yahoo.com
thanks
Dear Boris
I would also appreciate your help
Here is my e-mail
lewsew@charter.net
Thank You
LAG
Forgot to include my e-mail on my request.
kblaine123@yahoo.com
TU
Dear Brandon,Lag, Hamakua,
i am sure you will find that it is to your benefit, that strangers do not know what you are doing...
Good Trading
I have been thinking the same posting my trades here
wanted to benifit other members by it
You are to well known now
Dear Lag,
We need to create a closed group and I will see to it.
So, that we can communicate without unneeded "suprevision"
Good trading
Dear Boris, I am still reading your blog several times a day but haven't been posting much, trying to learn new trading software but please include me please. My email address is: waldmansr@zoominternet.net Thank you for all that you do. waldo.
Boris,
I emailed you.
old john
Dear Waldo,John,
I already had known your emails. but thanks
Good Trading
Dear Rich,
thanks
Good trading
Hi Boris,
Thanks for MDS.
Good trading.
Dear Aaaaaaum, thanks
Good trading
Dear Boris, I am a bit confused with turn dates. Is it 7 and 13 ? Or 7 through 13 ? If you are being intentionally vague I understand. Daveo
Dear Dave the turn comes around sunday 10 +-2 trading days gives the date range...
Thanks Dave
good trading
Quite a few new lows for market to be up a little
thats nazdaq where the lows are--so its just 4 big stocks carrying this
Dear Boris,
My email is ugly.betty77@gmail.com.
Why do you need email addresses? I was away for last few days and missed that post.
BTW, congratulations on our call on Euro currencies. Feb 1 was indeed the turn date, as you said. Do you see Euro going up now to be consistent with the meandering that you liked to see?
Best,
G.
Dear Greenie,
For email see the post before, MDS will not be given free , but to those friends that are long time friends.
Good Trading
I expect some correction in Dollar early next week and off and running again into March. meandering phase seems to be over...
Good trading
Bullish % turned back down yesterday also so that dont sound good either
have to agree something dramatic is going to happen. Gold and Silver are rallying to challenge their highs just a couple of days ago.
Gold spot at 918, Silver spot at 17.10.
It may be a turning point, with Gold, Silver breaking new highs,and Stock suddenly make a dash, SPX into 1400 again.
OR a errie plunge from here.
What is the trigger ?
Dear Dollarprearagon,
I think that Gold wants to suck as many as possible, so it is playing a cliffhanger. I did notice that GOLD over oversold couple days ago, but it could become quickly overbought here and one misstep could send it 60-70 dollars down in no time.
I would still play it same way, worthless put options for a quick dtop into 12 DEC.
good Trading
"I expect some correction in Dollar early next week and off and running again into March. meandering phase seems to be over..."
That is great - we are completely in synch !! I am also expecting euro to go up during the first three days of next week, maybe to challenge the broken trendline and then down we go.
Dear Greenie,
Good to be in agreement today, cause have no nerves for disagreement today(:-
good trading
Boris, Why don't you recommend direct gold short and instead suggest put options?
Dear Boris,
I probably won't qualify as a long-time friend, but my email address is sang_shin@hotmail.com if you are feeling generous! =D
As always, thanks a million.
Dear Sang,
You do certainly qualify
Good Trading
Boris,
broke thru 1334- at least temporarily
old john
Thanks Boris!!
BTW- I agree 100% that we will meander for a bit... confuse everyone, bulls and bears.
I came across this information and thought some of our readers might find them worth a quick peek:
Link to article
Interesting data set they use for their analysis... yet another way to look at market data and history.
Cheers!!
Boris,
No stocks for me. Bought the closed end muni bonds as you suggested a few months ago. very satisfied with that and the AP points.
old john
Dear Sang, do agree with most of the things in the link. I would caution though that the GOLD/XAU ratio, could be real lie this time. It could go much higher and gold+xau could move lower with it. See how low the ratio went in 1999-2000 and many times in the past 30 years.
Careful with GOLD here.
Good Trading
Dear John,
Good for you. EXCELLENT, 30% of what I bought is the same!
Good Trading
I agree about GOLD for sure. Not convinced that the GOLD/XAU ratio is going to break upwards after lagging for so long...
similar argument for the Junior Precious Metal Mining stocks... for so long I have heard analyst after analyst saying that it will catch up to the large companies, and when it does, it will "blast through to the moon".
still hasn't happened yet. neither has the GOLD/XAU to a certain degree.
good to hear others sharing some of my doubts!! especially you!
Good trading!
No Problem Dear Sang, always here to hear and talk common sense.
Good Trading
Dear Boris, friends,
If you draw euro and spx hourly charts for last one month, you will notice very interesting coincidences. They look almost identical, with euro leading spx by few hours to a day. Hmmm...
Don't know how long it will last, but worth paying attention.
The charts suggest big drop in spx today.
Greenie
"The charts suggest big drop in spx today."
Big = below 1300.
Dear Greenie,
MDS is one day away from buy and I like it when it does with the LOWER sharp break. We may get what we wish. If so , that would mean that low will come in Tuesday +- 1 day as such buy signals by MDS are followed by a couple day of lower moves ( usually). Frankly I am more comfortable with this as I explained in my muzinga about JPY and etc. Thanks for the connection TO EURO, I happen to believe that it is the same connection with JPY as the stocks and euro and gold and all the rest are considered the CARRY-TRADE benefactors. So makes sence when JPY goes higher STOCKS and EURO go LoWER, perhaps with some anticiaption as you indicate ( EURO being more sensitive, Currency traders are the fastest on the earth(:- )
Good Trading
Dear Boris/friends,
I am expecting today to close at the low of the day. DO NOT STAY SHORT over the weekend. There will be big rally (about 8-9% in SPX over three days). I am happy that these expectations also match with what MDS says.
I am not going long for the rally, because it is countertrend and I do not trust my own forecast :)
Best,
Greenie
"Currency traders are the fastest on the earth(:- )"
Certainly....they told me about Fed's surprise rate cut many hours back. I saw all currencies starting to rally, and was really puzzled why. How do these guys know everything?
Dear Greenie,
Thanks, I think though the Rally could start with a couple days delay not right away on Monday. I think you are saying the same!
Good Trading
Boris
I hope you don't mind, but I think I have duplicated your MDS system.
I haven't fine tuned it yet so it is very close but not exact.
I am only doing it so I can see how it performs in crash type situations in the past.
I certainly won't be sharing it with anyone.
In the unlikely event that I can improve on it, and considering your genius that seems unlikely, I will email you direct any ideas.
I hope you aren't offended, but I was concerned about being caught wrong sided in unusual market conditions.
Dear Voltire, I am glad, you came up with something that looks and acts like MDS, more of it the better.
I am not a bit offended, as I would be dead if got offended every time somebody comes up with a good system (there are pletny of those, usually closely guarded though)
Congrats!
GOod Trading
No Boris. I expect the rally to start right from the opening bell on monday. Remember that the trend is down, and this rally will be counter-trend bear market rally and will last only 3-4 days. Like all bear market rallies, it will start from nowhere, be fast and furious and will lose its energy before full bloom :)
Anyway, the above is just the high probability scenario I am following. Unlike you, I have been often wrong. So, I am staying flat over next few days.
Dear Greenie,
no, unlike you, I assume i am always wrong, sometimes I and up being right(:-
But the assumption that i am wrong keeps me on the toes... and keeps my stops in miniscule 3-10cents range and if i am wrong, so be it...
Let them take coffee money.
Thanks for word of confidence . THough i keep saying until all our friends ENGRAVE THIS IN THEIR BRAINS.
KNOWLEDGE does not make money!
IT IS THE TRADE managEMENT that makes money. The knowledge then comes down to a simple thing.
DO NOT LOSE MONEY!
THIS WILL Always force us to be careful and alert and keep small loses and winners will come.
Some peoople want to believe that there is more to it. but they are mistaken. I have seen people without high school diplomas being the best traders!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Good Trading
Sold 85% of remaining SRS here last high
"THIS WILL Always force us to be careful and alert and keep small loses and winners will come."
Boris, it is so true !! The following happened to me many times in the past - had a string of small gains, which made me feel very confident and then I held a losing trade for longer than I should have and got bigger loss wiping out previous gains.
I created the following rules for myself to stay out of trouble
-
(i) after a big gain, take some of the profits out of my trading account and put into my long-term account, as if I earned a paycheck,
(ii) take a break of few days after a big win,
(iii) not to trade against the primary trend. For example, even though I think euro may go up for few days, I would stay out rather than going long, because surprises will be on downside rather than up.
Those are just my rules. You have your own.
Best,
G.
Dear Greenie,
Sounds good.
We all need some framework that keeps us restrained and entire process of becoming trader , is assentially a descovery of what that frame work looks like for a given individual...
you gave yours...
thanks.
Good Trading
Dear Boris, you are so right. One of my favorite sayings came from the movie North Dallas Forty. The team owner told Nick Nolte's character 'People who confuse brains and luck can get into a whole lotta trouble. Seeing through the game is not the same as winning the game.' It takes discipline to win the game.
Greenie, I have to take a set percentage of gains out of my futures account every month and treat it like the business that it is. Otherwise, I tend to confuse brains and luck, then emotion trounces discipline.
FWIW, I like Greenie's scenario, it matches the gravity trends.
Dear Dave, Good to hear from you.
I guess you refer to some service you subscribe to right?
ENJOY
Good trading
Boris, yes, but the timing in the short term trends yield to your projections and tools, without fail. The longer term trends always match your projections. I have found that when the two coincide, basically two 80%+ accurate systems, my anxiety level disappears and I can trade in a more disciplined fashion.
Does that make sense ? The draw down on the gravity trends can get uncomfortable, but the pressure graphs can pin point the most opportune time, as an example.
With the current volatility, I can not trade swings like I did when I first started in 06. I have come to realize that I need more tools and information. I feel fortunate to have found my way here.
Daveo
Dear Dave
thanks and Good luck,
Alsways good to find mix of sources that fits your temperament
Good Trading
Expecting another big decline in the last hour.
Best,
G.
SRS is the best vehicle for this decline.
FYI.
Personally I see some meandering here before we go higher for a few months. Valuations are attractive, technicals are oversold and breadth out of the January lows has been good. The equal weighted NDX has actually been making a higher low while the cap weighted NDX 100 has been making lower lows. Positive divergence? FWIW I am playing the long side when we get the MDS buy.
Boris, I am also interested if you had a chance to look at the NZD? I went short with the Euro but the NZD is holding up well. Momentum is working against the NZD though and fundamentals are horrible. Good long term short IMO. Your thoughts?
srs all gone
Dear Greenie,Damien,Readers.
The fact that we put 50+ comments today indicates that this was a BS day(:- agree?
Actually with all my desire to see market sharply lower, miming indicators indicate a slight upturn into clse, with a caveate that i am wrong again(:-
Dear Damien, thanks for your comments, same Dear Greenie
Good Trading
"srs all gone"
You are going to miss about 15 points :)
"The fact that we put 50+ comments today indicates that this was a BS day"
wait till the last hour :)
Dear Greenie,
I may be wrong about last hour, but buy rule #2 I could not give the dam...
actually, it would be great, since it would be what MDS expects to have better BUY setup...
Good Trading
By the end of this hour, you will see real fear in the eyes of bulls.
Dear Lag,
Did I day ENJOY?
Regardless
NAZDAROVIE!
Good Trading
Boris,
thanx
old john AP for spx were great
Dear John,
We spend entire day between thirds, within one point difference. And the range was small to begin with...
So, we call this BS friday(:-
Good Trading
Well, I am wrong as usual. Closing SRS with profit - going home. Good night and good weekend, Boris. Thanks for all the help so that we manage to be on the right side.
G.
cpc ratio still not very high for a bottom
they wont give in---leaves you wonder what Monday brings
Dear Greenie,
Don't give up so fast. 30 minutes left to the closeing anything can happen...
Enjoy the weekend!
Good Trading
Dear Lag,
put call ratios turned up on my chart and it is not close to the up extreme to expect the turn, but could trun anyway...
In any case my time is now fixated on 11-13 FEB and hopefully by then we would have had all fall in place for a rally.
Good Trading
One reason for no positions is Im drained--I may see what happens for a day or so.
I was a Lineman for power co. and required lots of physical and mental now this is very mental
probably cause I havent ever moved my hard earned $$$ so fast in such short periods.---kinda fun tho when you can get back at the xxxx!!! bunch of people who try to hose us every day
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