, Ok , typo and "graphs not graps" and BSSB is the state with both B's on shaky grounds. Lot of people see us nuanced in our approach and I say, YES, try to play piano with one finger(:-12:07 ET, GOLD - chances are increasing that GOLD has put the top in for this multiyear bull market and will resume it only after, minimum of, 6-12 months rest. I have almost promised the top to the entire world in my last safehaven.com article. Just the same as the Bottom in $US Dollar is becoming more likely with some meandering into March as possibility. FIxed income instruments, interest rates, may have hit the bottoming wall, but could revisit the same or bit lower all the way into June/July.
Energy, as GOLD, with few minor caveates.
Please visit updated(Thanks Ivan) GROUPTATION link for ASSET Oscillators
Dear Readers The National SOPITALIST Casino will soon be closed for today and the Wall Street ( WELFARE STATE ) will go to burbs to count money they screwed ordinary citizens out of. We did not trade today, nothing has been resolved on the MDS level. GOLD took a dive and dollar had a nice gain. Things are falling in place, we/all finally see the demise of BRIC and commodity countries for several months.
Good Trading
Good Trading
38 comments:
Boris,
thanx, I should have played the long side of spx AP but did not, another bus will come.
Made a couple of inflated dollars this week thanks to you
old john
Dear John,
Enjoy your weekend.
GOod Trading
Dear John,
Enjoy your weekend.
END hey! $US was worht more today!
GOod Trading
Hi There,
can you axpand more on the USD/ILS forecast you wrote ?
im a "big player" in Israel and would like to understand what you base your forecast on......
tnx,
Aboot-bull
Dear aboot-bull Welcome to our site.
While we have a nice background from wall street and academia, and can apply fundamental reasoning to markets, our main tools are technical trading. Experience of many Years have taught us that markets will go where they are pushed by big speculators and often against the logic of economic and political fundamentals.
So, our decisions are based on technical trading supported by fundmantal thinking.
Decisions are made on intermarket realashionships as well.
Most/All the technical methods used by us are proprietary and are not disclosed to public, while the results are freely available to them.
Particular SHEKEL forecasts are result of our generic approach to all securities and some knwoledge of Israeli economy.
Good trading
Boris,
thanx for the charts. ( and everything else)
old john
Dear JOhn,
Nazdarovie!
Good Trading
Hi Boris and Friends,
Thanks for posting all those charts Boris. The data and analysis point to similar views from others that we will meander upwards for a few more days before heading back down to retest the lows.
Here's an article that uses more traditional analysis to arrive at a similar conclusion:
Link to article
Bear market rules that I keep in mind:
* Oversold conditions should be viewed as extremely dangerous. Whereas in bull markets oversold lows usually present buying opportunities, in bear markets they can often resolve into more heavy selling.
* Overbought conditions in a bear market are most likely to signal that a trading top is at hand.
* While bear market rallies present great profit opportunities, long positions should be managed as short-term only.
Gold looks to have topped for some time. After witnessing the horrible jobs report and Gold DROPPING, it is clear that the USD does not have much room to fall further. Quite counterintuitive that a bad jobs report (worst in many years) leads to a rise in the USD. The market has clearly already priced in Fed rate cuts way down. Thus, there's actually a higher chance that the USD will rise now, since the worst case situation (recession with consecutive rate cuts down to 2%) appears to have already been priced in.
Will observe the consolidation for the next few days, and if we get signs of some weakness, will slowly add very small positions to the short side see how it builds, especially the QQQQ.
Cheers!
Dear Sang,
Thanks for your thoughful comments.
I am sure readers enjoy your links.
GOod Trading
sew@charter.netFor what its worth
8 out of 9 indicators I follow are screaming sell--a couple are real high--summation has hardly budged
I am in real heavy SRS and quite a bit of TWM
Good luck gentlemen
LAG
Bond insurers--2d one is a great video (3-4 min) must see it--bloody
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22948387/for/cnbc/
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=632200049
Hi again,
so... basicly you are telling me: thats what my "robot" says, live with it ....
right ..??.?????
Interesting chart here showing Bear market behavior with respect to RSI...
Link to graph
We are about to hit 50 on the RSI, so we should be getting close to topping in this snap back rally according to this historical analysis...
Just giving another viewpoint that arrives at the same conclusion here but using different historical analysis... some consolidation and then the next leg down.
Situations where similar conclusions are being reached using varied technical analysis are usually good opportunities from a probability standpoint.
Cheers!
Dear friends, just one more chart here... again using different technical analysis... this time a modified variant of elliot waves et al:
Link to chart
Similar conclusion- note the stop at 1424.
Dear Aboot-Bull.
Yes, So does my robot??? (:-
As you can see though, there a lot of people that succesfully use the information coming from this robot.
Good Trading
dear traders
Are we going into a real-estate bubble in non-americans markets.
for example , in Israel the real-estate prices in US$ jumped above 30% in the last couple of years.
Very odd, considering that 70% of Israel export are going to the US, which enters into recession.
Sharon
Hi Boris,
I have small USD/JPY long position. Do you think it's reasonable to sell it in next few days? I know, YEN status was 1,1,1,1,1 couple days ago, but we expect stock market to go down in next weeks. Thanks
Dear Sharon,
we have sharp real estate pice escalation in israel.
Part of it the foreign real estate investment and another part is the Shekel appreciation.
Both , in fact comes from running away from Dollar, but as SHEKEL turns within next few weeks, we are going these to reverse and the bubble will disappear.
Having said that it is clear that the Bubble in Israel is not as bad in USA as the overbuilding has happened in 2001 and now overbuilding almost does not exist in Israel, except in LUXURY buildings
good trading
Dear Ivan, let us hope that there is no immediate spike in YEN and we have YEN going lower for couple days before it drops.
I prefer this to be the case, but let us carefully observe what goes on Monday Morning
Good Trading
Hi Boris,
I have been viewing this forum for almost a year now. but this is my first post. I have been very impressed with your tools. I have a couple questions:
1-Are you still seeing a downturn into early March as shown in the YBR/WBR?
2-You stated a couple days ago that you are adding small GE and MO to your investments. I can understand MO, but GE dropped for two years in the 2001 recession. Why add GE now?
3. Which leads to my last question, do you see the markets turning higher by year end, which would explain the GE position?
Thanks for the wonderful site. It is hard to find unbiased perspectives on the markets these days.
Trackerman
Dear Trakerman.
GE is microcosm of USA and perhaps worlds economy.
If you can get 3.5% to in the era where you/I can borro JPY for 0.7JPYlibor plush 0.5 for bank ( total of 1.5 at most). Would not you do it. Hack even Dollar can be borrowed now for less than 3.5% or just about it.
Now if economies will boom again it will happen only with GE booming and if economies will depress and US rates will be 0.5% next 5 years you will be pocketing 3.5%.
How bad can that be even if GE stock falls?
You see I like no lose propositions. That means holding stocks I am willing to hold forever If I have to.
Of course, you will find me selling it as soon as I have nice profits, but for arguments sake How wrong can i be?
Now MO, I actually dished out quickly even though it fits the same thinking.
I am just concerned that even undeveloped countries are getting on no smoking bandwagon, while everybody seems to be on renewable energy bandwagon ( WInd Turbines anyone?)...
Of course, I can be wrong and I would welcome constructive critics, but that is where I stand.
I can only thank you for being interested and for posing questions.
Good Trading.
Dear Trakerman,
Forgot to relate to YBR/WBR.
Frankly, anything but major point turns is a gravy to come true for YBR/WBR.
So, if March(expected) confirms the low. I would say that YBR/WBR have done well. If not, I would have to look for reason why the forecast is not working anymore, cause so far it has cougnt major turning points well.
Good Trading
Boris
Your will to share and your modest writing is admired
Thank you
Dear Sharon,
It is your kind words that are inspiring, cause here is how i think... If more people start thinking about living honestly and work on those who do not , we have a chance to , eventually, have a liveable society, and from the way you sound, perhaps we have an addinal people who could be counted on to "right thing" when time comes.
Appreciate your participation.
Good Trading
Dear Boris
Dear Boris,
Thank you for the reply about GE and MO.
However, I do not understand. Even with 3.5% dividend, this would hardly offset a 60% loss in the stock price, which is what happened to GE betwen 2001-03 (Went from $60 to <$25, and has since only made up $15 of that $35 loss). Are you assuming that we will probably not be having a 2001-3 type downturn ahead? I lost major money during that period and I have become a little gun shy (watched way too much Kudlow and Cramer).
Not trying to badger you, but I do respect your opinion and would like to understand. A money market acct at 4% in 2001-present would be way ahead of GE stock over that same period.
Dear Trackerman,
Your question is legimate and I will reply the same way as before. That GE has not run the way it has in 2000 and does not have as much fat to give back. US economy , in my opinion will not dive into depression, but could very well be in protracted sideways to down move for next 2-3 years. Total top to bottom decline i expect should not be more than 45% and probably limited to 30% , and with 15% already seen, I can live with another 15% if and when it comes. And as I said i am willing to hold this stock forever if I have to. And actually I would not even at the arguments above.
my reasoning is as stated. If I can borrow money at X and invest in as sure, as they come, stock , like GE, I would do it regardless...
Now that is my opinion as someone whe sees the world as an infinite arbitrage possibilities. And this idea fits the bill, whether i play with my own money or ,and, especially with borrowed money.
Good Trading
Dear Trackerman, Readers,
There was something missing from the above exchange with Dear Trackerman.
Remember, we do not buy GE with all the money we got. We buy things so that at this time we should only be invested 30-40% in quality stocks with high to reasonable yield.
So, think about it YOU GE allocted 10000 dollars 9 rest for other stocks) and you go and buy 3000 worth at these prices and stocks goes down ( you wish) 15%....
ha... you just go and buy more at the YIELD of 4.20 or so! and if it goes down another 15%... you run and buy another at 4.7% and then you exahusted yor GE allocated funds. C'bueno, now you GE at the average YILD of 4.25 and we are in the depression for 15 Years where Dollar and Interest rates are boght floored ( like case of Japan).
Ny dear readers, Japanase houswives vould not be investing in risky NZD AND AUD currencies if they had the stock YILDING 4.2 ( imagine TOYOTA was yielding 4.2!)
In addition to that GE being big exporter, would thrive under the low dollar...
Good Trading
Dear Boris,
Thank you so much for expanding on your previous post. I do understand now your reasoning. Have a happy Super Bowl Sunday!!
Trackerman
Dear Trackerman,
Who do cheer for this time around
Giants or Patriots?
Answer when you can. Do not hurry(:-
enjoy!
Good Trading
Hi Boris,
Don't Care. I'm from Chicago.
But, I really do not like NY. So I guess its cheer for New England??
Trackerman
Boris,
I see you have another person from Chicago on the board. Trackerman, I am also from Chicago
old john
Dear Tackerman,
New Egland. Well, I respect that I actually like the Brady bunch and I like an old(er) man Junior Sea to win one for us.
But I like NY too...
So, I have the buy and sell signals all at the same time(:-
Good Trading
Dear John,
Yes soon we can create a Chicago team at ANTI-SOPITALIST(:-
Good Trading
Dear Boris
In continue to your answer to abot-bull and based on your analysis, are we going to see the Shekel in 3.50 during feb, or the revaluation cames to its end?
ofcourse you are not an oracle, my question points to the technical behavior based on the interest rates gap.
Thanks in advance
Sharon
Dear Sharon,
Heavies support zone for shekel lies at 3.44 to 3.57(we are there now).
If this band is broken down we could go to 3.35 and 3.12 ...
We do not want to discuss break of this area! not now... Cause if we do break this level there is hell to break and/or freeze...
Timing wise we have mid feb 6 and 16 and Early April as possible dates for the bottom.
Good Trading
tell u what...
I've been short USD/ILS for a long long time ....
I caught the move from 4.2somthing levels of 2006.
I was shacked out at the correction during the summer but got back to the short position that's why I'm so interested in your view.
every 10 Agorot we drop i have the feeling we can go farther more.
lately we marked 3.20 as a target .....
but than i saw your view for 2008 and 2009 regarding the fact u caught the big move since 2006,
I share great respect .... there for I suddenly got scared ..... :-)......
I'm a bit confused....so...
is this the bottom or the 3.12-3.35 levels ??
can u tell the chances to break 3.44-57 levels ?
which direction is more like to come now than now (from 3.57 where its stuck for the last couple of days ?? or 3.44)?
about your 2008 and 2009 view... what are the chances your "robot" is wrong ?
tnx,
Aboot-Bull
Dear Aboot-Bull, I consider chances of breaking below 3.44 not great, but even if those chances ar about 25% that is still a big number in the probability world. So, we do not make money by knowing exactly where the markets will stop, but by knowing what the possibilities are and trading accordingly.
You will see on this site, how risking 4-10c only we go for gains of 35c or more on the average.
There is a line between forecasting and trading and we always tell our readers that we forecast for fun and trade for living.
Now, the way we deal with this is as follows;
We take a position and then fine tune it with Attraction points every day.
We do not publish Apoints for shekel or anything else. Those services are services for pay...
Thanks and Regards,
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