Thursday, December 27, 2007
Short Story
Dear Readers, I continue to make this section a permanent feature, where Readers can put stories, anecdotal evidence, something they noticed and/or read that can generate the trading ideas, short or long term. Please put whatever comes on your mind. This should stimulate people to think outside BOX and notice things beyond what they see, hear and/or read. Pay attention to "what mass (e)mailers are pushing". For samples/examples refer to previous "Short Story" posts. Good Trading
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15 comments:
Dear Readers, a recent example of trading Ideas ( or no trading ideas) is a big advertisement blitz, conducted by one of the biggest advisory services 'weiss research'.
these guys have spent considerable amount of money proding people to get into YEN when the YEN was approaching 107. our support point.
I was going to take some yen longs before this happened, but abandoned the idea as soon as I say the massive "iTV" adds from them. And became more admaant about $US dollar rally, then I already was( you knew that).
Hallelujah!
Good Trading
So, Dear Readers, the above is an example to pay attention to your junk mail/email...
Pleas read them. and figure out where the bozos are pushed.
GOod Trading
Hello Dear Boris....
I wholeheartedly agree with you....
Dear Xerxes,
Thanks...
Good trading
Hi Boris,
This article from "dollar strategists" on Bloomberg show that they expect the dollar to strengthen as well. This is not an ad blitz, but interesting nevertheless.
Their perspective is that sovereign wealth funds injecting money into the US will cause the USD to strengthen.
Link to article
Interesting to see how this will play out with Gold. If the USD appreciates, which I think it will, then Gold will have to decouple from the USD to continue on its journey upwards.
Cheers!
Dear Sang,
Many thanks,
every one of these types of articles help...
While I agree with the dollar being stonger into 2009.
one - i thought about this years ahead.
twp - now i am begining to think that Dollar will take a dive among other things because of such articles.(: :)
Please keep coming these issues.
They are the best of info flow that forms our/your sentiment and therefore trading savy.
thanks again dear sang.
Great
Goot trading
Good point Boris... contrarian view is something we should always factor in... speaking of which, Gold seems ready for another boost upwards today.
Weak Durable Goods order, Bhutto's assassination in Pakistan, and probably weak confidence report all supporting higher Gold prices today.
May accumulate some shares of GDX again...
Good Trading.
Boris, Thanks for the example on the Yen. Keeps us on the right side.
Also appreciate your indicators. I am new to your blog and find it quite useful.
Came to know about Bhutto's assassination after reading it here. Read in the news that there is a possibility that she is only injured and not dead. I hope she lives. She is a courageous lady.
Dear Hajime,
Welcome to our blog.
Please feel at home.
You can see we have bunch of selfless guys/girls here who are all feeding on each other information and main line signals coming from me and individuals that do their own research execution etc.
I know you will find this refreshing.
Good trading
Dear readers, one notable market event today. JPY reversal.
it could be that we are witnessing the real legitimate reversal since the JPY started decline from 107( in price - > rise in quote)
Good trading
I think this link posted by Dear Hajimi is relevant to seeing where we are as to when and how the bottom in the mortgage and realestate markets will occur:
Hajimi's link:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/26/opinion/superheadhouse.html
Here's another, in which you might like to see especially the paragraph that begins:
"Wells Fargo, the nation’s secondlargest mortgage lender, is now"
http://www.forbes.com/home/wallstreet/forbes/2008/0107/034.html
I am thinking that if WF buys at, say, 7% interest, in the amount of say, $60b, and sells at, say, 6%, they will make about $10b.
If my prior post comes true, this will happen by somewhere around Mar 08.
Their "downside" would be to hold the mortgages, all on prime american residential properties, and earn 7% on debt which they bought as if it would pay 6%.
If I am right in predicting a bottom in spring 08, they will then see their collateral improve. This too, will increase the resale value of what they are buying now.
Does anyone think Wells Fargo's chairman is predicting the same change that I predicted in my original post on this topic? If so, why do you think he is doing so?
Love to all,
Will
Dear Will,
I apreciate your information given here. I do think there could be some releief , in general, in the markets around March as YBR suggests some kind of a bottom there.
So, while not the bottom , A BOTTOM , could well be coming at that point.
Then all you say and think could come true. I do not see why not...
WFC and WARREN BUFFET , who bought lot of the WFC shares are not stupid.
No sir..
THanks a lot Will.
Please keep us supplied with all the info we can and can not handle (: :) . One day we all will be wiser for it.
GOod Trading Dear Will
g'day boris and all.
cleaning out overloaded email and RSS baskets while nursing an aussie $ position - hope it's going to retest the highs around 93/94 during this cycle - and have run across a few items that might be of interest.
quote at a blog post
"no employer wants to look like the grinch and fire people right before or at Christmas so they wait until after the new year gets under way. You'll see layoffs start to take place in January and February, not just in retail, but all over the U.S. economy."
fits with the timing of the YBR decline.
the post above is from a sovereign society blog that i started taking when a bloke called jack crooks operated it.
the sovereign society targets US investors with a pitch about shifting money offshore to protect against US$ devaluation and keep assets out of US authorities' reach (and US residents also have to keep in mind the possibility of currency controls, which seem to be gaining in popularity around the world).
i do not know how widely read this blog is; it doesn't seem to attract comments. however, i would think the info also turns up in sovereign society newsletters emailed to their lists of potential and existing subscribers to their services.
jack crooks now operates at black swan capital where you can sign up for email delivery of an irregular (not quite daily) but frequent currency commentary. he is a smart operator, good writer and i think a good bloke.
the monthly SPX chart in
this article is worth a look.
finally, a question about how you want "short story" used: should stuff like the above continue to be posted here during the trading day, so it doesn't get in the way of comments directed to the immediate market at the "limits" thread? or would that get too scattered?
good trading
malcolm
Dear Malcolm,
We are/were never formal about the postings, but it seems like the post you made today seems to have fit perfectly into that "short story " content.
Again.
Do not worry, this is our house , house of all readers.
We can mess it up until we tell each other, "time to make order"
GOod Trading.
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