RBS says that the euro is the 'sickest dog of the litter' and will remain so until Greek crisis is resolved; near target 1.30
How Goldman Sachs Helped Greece to Mask its True Debt:
Goldman Sachs helped the Greek government to mask the true extent of its deficit with the help of a derivatives deal that legally circumvented the EU Maastricht deficit rules. At some point the so-called cross currency swaps will mature, and swell the country's already bloated deficit.
It looks like the Greek figure jugglers have been even more brazen than was previously thought. "Around 2002 in particular, various investment banks offered complex financial products with which governments could push part of their liabilities into the future," one insider recalled, adding that Mediterranean countries had snapped up such products.
Greece's debt managers agreed to a huge deal with the savvy bankers of US investment bank Goldman Sachs at the start of 2002. The deal involved so-called cross-currency swaps in which government debt issued in dollars and yen was swapped for euro debt for a certain period -- to be exchanged back into the original currencies at a later date.
Such transactions are part of normal government refinancing..... But in the Greek case the US bankers devised a special kind of swap with fictional exchange rates. That enabled Greece to receive a far higher sum than the actual euro market value of the dollars or yen......
I wonder if the Goldmen offer individuals these fictional swaps Dear Boris, after all, aren't we sovereigns as well :-)
Tricky on his way back to europe to pow wow with some bigwigs manana on the Greece situation ... Maybe Athens can abandon the euro and join a currency union with the shmeck :-)
Today's action seems to suggest Dear Boris that if the eurocrats offer any kind of aid to Greece the euro will rocket north .... Unlikely that they'll tell 'em to go pound sand so we get a one-way bet, a ticket to shangri-la :-)
Eurocrats meeting as I write to decide what to do with Greece ... 600,000 Greeks preparing to strike today .... If the rioters like the German plan will there be a big street party Dear Boris :-)
Dear Xerxes, maybe some other EU countries have seen the pattern: spend the money, do not care about deficits,... and in the end, Germany will cover the costs. :-) I am not sure that will be the case with the next country in problems...
Bloomberg says we won't hear anything until Tricky gives the post meeting conference tomorrow ... Some say could be bailout or a firewall to protect the other EU members
Dear Ivan .... He said that he expects inflation to hit 3.5% from increases in VAT and petrol prices ... He expects inflation to abate so no need to jack rates now ... QE is available if needed ... They are giving the banks 3 years to unwind the asset purchase program ... Doesn't seem like he said anything that should rally GBPUSD, not yet anyways .... He's still patting himself on the back as to how he saved Britain from Great Depresion II :-)
King doesn't think that running a 6 or 7% annual inflation rate, to wipe out the debt, as per Rogoff's recommendation/estimation is warranted, as it won't 'help the banks.'
Dubai, UAE (CNN) -- A shadowy figure murdered in his Dubai hotel room by a hit squad that the police say operated with European passports. It sounds like the plot of a John Le Carré spy novel, but this is reality and the hunt is on for the killers of top Hamas official Mahmoud al-Mabhouh.
Al-Mabhouh's father, Abed al-Rauf, told CNN: "There was an attempt to kill him in Lebanon and he survived, two other attempts in Syria and he survived. Israel has been after him for the past 22 years."
Israel certainly has good reason to put him on its most wanted list. Al-Mabhouh was behind the kidnapping and killing of two Israeli soldiers in 1989. Israeli security sources tell CNN al-Mabhouh was a key link between Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas and he was involved in smuggling arms to Gaza.
Also, before long, we expect to consider a modest increase in the spread between the discount rate and the target federal funds rate. These changes, like the closure of a number of lending facilities earlier this month, should be viewed as further normalization of the Federal Reserve’s lending facilities, .....Ben Bernanke
Total credit outstanding under all programs, including the regular discount window, has fallen sharply from a peak of $1-1/2 trillion around year-end 2008 to about $110 billion last week. .... Ben Bernanke
as the expansion matures the Federal Reserve will need to begin to tighten monetary conditions to prevent the development of inflationary pressures. The Federal Reserve has a number of tools that will enable it to firm the stance of policy at the appropriate time. Most importantly, in October 2008 the Congress gave the Federal Reserve statutory authority to pay interest on banks’ holdings of reserve balances. By increasing the interest rate on reserves, the Federal Reserve will be able to put significant upward pressure on all short-term interest rates, as banks will not supply short-term funds to the money markets at rates significantly below what they can earn by holding reserves at the Federal Reserve Banks. ... Ben Bernanke
the Federal Reserve anticipates that its balance sheet will shrink toward more historically normal levels and that most or all of its security holdings will be Treasury securities. Although passively redeeming agency debt and MBS as they mature or are prepaid will move us in that direction, the Federal Reserve may also choose to sell securities in the future when the economic recovery is sufficiently advanced and the FOMC has determined that the associated financial tightening is warranted.... Ben Bernanke
Dear Boris, please explain to me the time shift on the seethefuture graph. I'm having trouble with the dates. I browsed through the bigpicture charts and they are amazing as usual. Thanks, Daveo
Sorry Boris, I think I got it figured out. The graph on the dot net site shows this week and the next 4 (5 weeks beyond what is shown on this blog). I'm a little rusty. Daveo
There will be “blood on the walls” in credit markets if the EU fails to agree to a package for Greece tomorrow, Gary Jenkins, head of credit strategy at Evolution Securities Ltd. in London, said in a note to investors......
Tough talk Dear Boris but Bloomberg says that for Jean-Claude "Tricky" Trichet, Greece will merely merit only a 'lunchtime palaver' tomorrow ...
China raising minimum wage by 15% rather than appreciate the RMB according to Bloomberg ... China claims CPI is 2% despite record bank lending, justifying the wage rise and claiming it is noninflationary
Bloomberg says that Greek bank stocks are rising for 3rd consecutive day ... Bloomberg claims that this shows positive sentiment towards Greece but is it a case of buy the rumor and sell the news Dear Boris ...
if you're going to screw over a bunch of tax payers by slashing their social programs that you promised them...and the potential for riots is high when do you tell them?
Dear John Great What you just said is an example of how to use the ANTISOPITALIST
Exactly, when the Market was around the low area and EURO hit the DLAP 3 that seemed like a perfect confluence of markets.
Absolutely, the , typical ad brilliant example how we work. Besides the outline that helps us orient in certain direction, we take trades just like that you described.
As for trading QQQQ, I see no difference. Of course, you could have just as well traded FXE or any other currency ETF.
Great Dear John, for giving an example how we trade.
Dear John Great What you just said is an example of how to use the ANTISOPITALIST
Exactly, when the Market was around the low area and EURO hit the DLAP 3 that seemed like a perfect confluence of markets.
Absolutely, the , typical ad brilliant example how we work. Besides the outline that helps us orient in certain direction, we take trades just like that you described.
As for trading QQQQ, I see no difference. Of course, you could have just as well traded FXE or any other currency ETF.
Great Dear John, for giving an example how we trade.
I am more a Q person-- sometimes spx-- remember when you first started and you posted Qs-- that is what I do-- with the currencies. Always looking for the confluence
124 comments:
Boris
good morning
old john
Dear John,
Good Morning to you
Very Dear Friend
Good Trading
Dear Boris,
Good morning.
Thanks and good trading.
Bert
Good Morning
To YOu my very Dear
Friend Bert
emini255
On DotNet
good morning, boris,
the p-site seems to be down!
gorli
Dear Gorli,
Sorry,
You do not need Psite, for now
We have the DotNet up
Sorry, to be late responding.
Got bogged down into some system issues here
Hopefully you got your walk in
old john
Dear John,
Today, I did not get much to go out, but I had nice relaxing weekend( it was sunny, not much work , but sunny).
Good Trading Very Dear Friend
"We continue to expect no interest-rate hikes from the Fed in 2010 and, more likely than not, in 2011 as well...." The Goldmen
Looks like an inside day.
Just as well.
Good Trading All
The Goldmen have downgraded Italian banks today
[Spanish]Development Minister, Jose Blanco, denounces plot against Spain and the euro ...
RBS says that the euro is the 'sickest dog of the litter' and will remain so until Greek crisis is resolved; near target 1.30
How Goldman Sachs Helped Greece to Mask its True Debt:
Goldman Sachs helped the Greek government to mask the true extent of its deficit with the help of a derivatives deal that legally circumvented the EU Maastricht deficit rules. At some point the so-called cross currency swaps will mature, and swell the country's already bloated deficit.
It looks like the Greek figure jugglers have been even more brazen than was previously thought. "Around 2002 in particular, various investment banks offered complex financial products with which governments could push part of their liabilities into the future," one insider recalled, adding that Mediterranean countries had snapped up such products.
Greece's debt managers agreed to a huge deal with the savvy bankers of US investment bank Goldman Sachs at the start of 2002. The deal involved so-called cross-currency swaps in which government debt issued in dollars and yen was swapped for euro debt for a certain period -- to be exchanged back into the original currencies at a later date.
Such transactions are part of normal government refinancing.....
But in the Greek case the US bankers devised a special kind of swap with fictional exchange rates. That enabled Greece to receive a far higher sum than the actual euro market value of the dollars or yen......
I wonder if the Goldmen offer individuals these fictional swaps Dear Boris, after all, aren't we sovereigns as well :-)
And
Obviously,
This news comes out at appropriate time as well.
WHo FORCED(:- Goldmen to announce existance of such UNFAIR SWAP and why now?
So, that GOLDMEN and their friends are in an outright effort to part you from your EUROS/SWISSY/ and lesser currencies of GBP/KRONER-NORWAY etc.
Hallelujah.
These people are becoming so
TRANSPARENT
Even I(:- -:) can see it...
And I am half blind(:-
Good Trading Dear Xerxes
Boris
good trading and good walking
old john
THanks Dear John
Good Trading
Very Dear Friend
I walked/ran nicely today
On the beach, nice gorgeous day
Emini256
On
DotNet
ENjoy
Boris
Day off from jogging- back bothering me. Where I now live, lots of hills-- hard on lower back
old john
Dennis Gartman is bullish on dollars, all of them, USD AUD NZD CAD Dear Boris ... He recommends them and not the single currency ...
Dear Boris,
Good morning.
Thanks and good trading.
Bert
CS, MS, GS recommending to continue the ride on the emerging market bull ... buy on the dips Dear Boris; they say you won't be disappointed :-)
Dear John
We need you healthy
Please take it easy.
Get strong and go back
to jogging.
Good Trading Very Dear Friend John
Dear Bert
Very Good Trading
My Very Dear Friend
Bert
5 Minute Date
Is oN DotNet
Merkel and the EU to the rescue of Greece Dear Boris
Dear Xerxes
Do you remember, we organised this all(:-
Good Trading Dear Xerxes
DARK PATH!
Best day for EURUSD since June Dear Boris
Looks like maybe green dear boris ... Long live the Christian Democratic Union!
Maybe not the gree,
Maybe not yet,
In any case, that transition is not trivial
Boris
Watching that euro move was something else.
thanks
old john
Tricky on his way back to europe to pow wow with some bigwigs manana on the Greece situation ... Maybe Athens can abandon the euro and join a currency union with the shmeck :-)
Dear JOhn,
agree, even though I was fixated on GBP, which had just as amazing of a FLIGHT(:-
Thanks Very Dear Friend John
And Good Trading
Dear Xerxes
Good Idea.
(:-
Good Trading Dear Fiend Xerxes
Used it with the 5 minutes-- did ok
old john
you taught me well
Dear John,
Good For you
Enjoy
Very Dear Friend
Today's action seems to suggest Dear Boris that if the eurocrats offer any kind of aid to Greece the euro will rocket north .... Unlikely that they'll tell 'em to go pound sand so we get a one-way bet, a ticket to shangri-la :-)
Eurocrats meeting as I write to decide what to do with Greece ... 600,000 Greeks preparing to strike today .... If the rioters like the German plan will there be a big street party Dear Boris :-)
Dear Xerxes,
maybe some other EU countries have seen the pattern: spend the money, do not care about deficits,... and in the end, Germany will cover the costs. :-)
I am not sure that will be the case with the next country in problems...
Dear Ivan, if Greece gets its Ouzo, I want my Sangria and the Portuguese want their Port :-)
Bloomberg is expection 4% UK inflation in today's report, up from 2.9% in December
Yes, they know, GBP should hit 5th today :-)
GERMANY SAID TO CONSIDER GREEK AID BEYOND LOAN GUARANTEES
Bloomberg says we won't hear anything until Tricky gives the post meeting conference tomorrow ... Some say could be bailout or a firewall to protect the other EU members
Obama doesn't think Jamie Dimon's 18 million dollar bonus is out of line as some athletes make big bucks and don't win the championship
This will probably end with a big spike up in antidollar... The question is when.
Mervyn King on TV giving his speech ...
MPC expects inflation to decrease from whatever rise occurs
Although they paused QE, the MPC reserves the right to fire 'em up again, 'should conditions warrant.'
King says don't compare Greece to the UK .... suuuure :-)
Dear Xerxes, I am not watching TV but I am sure he left something positive for GBP, for the end.?
e-mini past 4th HHAP
Dear Ivan .... He said that he expects inflation to hit 3.5% from increases in VAT and petrol prices ... He expects inflation to abate so no need to jack rates now ... QE is available if needed ... They are giving the banks 3 years to unwind the asset purchase program ... Doesn't seem like he said anything that should rally GBPUSD, not yet anyways .... He's still patting himself on the back as to how he saved Britain from Great Depresion II :-)
King doesn't think that running a 6 or 7% annual inflation rate, to wipe out the debt, as per Rogoff's recommendation/estimation is warranted, as it won't 'help the banks.'
Dubai, UAE (CNN) -- A shadowy figure murdered in his Dubai hotel room by a hit squad that the police say operated with European passports. It sounds like the plot of a John Le Carré spy novel, but this is reality and the hunt is on for the killers of top Hamas official Mahmoud al-Mabhouh.
Al-Mabhouh's father, Abed al-Rauf, told CNN: "There was an attempt to kill him in Lebanon and he survived, two other attempts in Syria and he survived. Israel has been after him for the past 22 years."
Israel certainly has good reason to put him on its most wanted list. Al-Mabhouh was behind the kidnapping and killing of two Israeli soldiers in 1989. Israeli security sources tell CNN al-Mabhouh was a key link between Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas and he was involved in smuggling arms to Gaza.
Bloomberg confidence survey down 28% from January while confidence in the buckeroo is soaring :-)
Very Good Info
Dear Xerxes
Keep up the good
busines-Infotainment
(:-
Dear Boris,
Good morning.
Thanks and good trading.
Bert
emini257
On dotnet
tom Petty is back Dear Boris and can we thank the snow :-)
Also, before long, we expect to consider a modest increase in the spread between the discount rate and the target federal funds rate. These changes, like the closure of a number of lending facilities earlier this month, should be viewed as further normalization of the Federal Reserve’s lending facilities, .....Ben Bernanke
Total credit outstanding under all programs, including the regular discount window, has fallen sharply from a peak of $1-1/2 trillion around year-end 2008 to about $110 billion last week. .... Ben Bernanke
started buying first april GC 1110 calls
as the expansion matures the Federal Reserve will need to begin to tighten monetary conditions to prevent the development of inflationary pressures. The Federal Reserve has a number of tools that will enable it to firm the stance of policy at the appropriate time. Most importantly, in October 2008 the Congress gave the Federal Reserve statutory authority to pay interest on banks’ holdings of reserve balances. By increasing the interest rate on reserves, the Federal Reserve will be able to put significant upward pressure on all short-term interest rates, as banks will not supply short-term funds to the money markets at rates significantly below what they can earn by holding reserves at the Federal Reserve Banks. ... Ben Bernanke
the Federal Reserve anticipates that its balance sheet will shrink toward more historically normal levels and that most or all of its security holdings will be Treasury securities. Although passively redeeming agency debt and MBS as they mature or are prepaid will move us in that direction, the Federal Reserve may also choose to sell securities in the future when the economic recovery is sufficiently advanced and the FOMC has determined that the associated financial tightening is warranted.... Ben Bernanke
Dear D,
Enjoy
Good TRading Dear Friend
Dear Boris, please explain to me the time shift on the seethefuture graph. I'm having trouble with the dates. I browsed through the bigpicture charts and they are amazing as usual. Thanks, Daveo
Update
On DOtNet
GOod Trading
Sorry Boris, I think I got it figured out. The graph on the dot net site shows this week and the next 4 (5 weeks beyond what is shown on this blog). I'm a little rusty. Daveo
Dear Dave
There is no shift on SEEFUTURE
You see next 4 weeks prediction on that chart.
It is a weekly chart please remember that .
Other than that there is no shift. Next 4 weeks are shown.
Of course, the entire dates have to be shifte by one year. But that would only change thye year not the (day and months).
Good Trading Dear Dave.
If I am not clear, plese provide your phone we shall discuss this.
G
Yes,
Exactly
Dear Dave
Hanaging
aournd the lows of the area
Need to Go over, or could turn down again.
Good Trading All
i have done my part buying today...
from an hour ago:
long
eur/jpy
gold
gdx
CL
Dear D,
ENJOY
I presume, these will be, at least, a good short term trade
Good Trading Dear D
we shall see what the future holds. i think people are mistaking greece for a financial crisis when it is really a political/social crisis.
the media stokes the fire of credit contagion and waaaaaaaa! lol
Dear D,
I for one, have implied or stated exactly the same.
Nevertheless, there is cyclical reason for Antidollar being down last couple months
GOod Trading Dear D
but of course...i am not a news watcher. i prefer to listen to music or watch a movie. my favorite news is the tin foil variety.
:)
There will be “blood on the walls” in credit markets if the EU fails to agree to a package for Greece tomorrow, Gary Jenkins, head of credit strategy at Evolution Securities Ltd. in London, said in a note to investors......
Tough talk Dear Boris but Bloomberg says that for Jean-Claude "Tricky" Trichet, Greece will merely merit only a 'lunchtime palaver' tomorrow ...
EU summit will start at noon rather than 10:00 am Dear Boris
Fitch says that France has a debt problem along with the UK Dear Boris so the single currency should get a 4 handle this afternoon :-)
Spain contracted for 7th straight quarter
Is Spain going to be asked to bail the Greeks Dear Boris :-)
Dear Xerxes,
Bilderbergs,... (Sopitalists) know the answers for all these problems (at least for now).
Dear Xerxes,
Great staff.
We can start our own
News Service.
Think about that.
That would be Great(:-
Good Trading Dear Xerxes
It seems that nobody here is a club member, Dear Ivan :-)
China raising minimum wage by 15% rather than appreciate the RMB according to Bloomberg ... China claims CPI is 2% despite record bank lending, justifying the wage rise and claiming it is noninflationary
Bloomberg says that Greek bank stocks are rising for 3rd consecutive day ... Bloomberg claims that this shows positive sentiment towards Greece but is it a case of buy the rumor and sell the news Dear Boris ...
Bloomberg says risk trade is ON Dear Boris with AUDUSD targeting 90 near term ... Boooom
What a tricky morning session!?
GBP
Made it tricky Dear Ivan,
that is what made it.
But that is nothing new the way this tricky BURTISH is working(:-
Good Trading
WALK, GOING TO WALK, made few cents(:-
Boris
Enjoy the walk-- have to take my toyota corolla in for the recall this morning.
old john
Dear Boris,
Good morning.
Thanks and good trading.
Bert
Dear John,
Keep Your Toyota running.
I thought this recall related relatively newer cars. I guess TOYO is in bigger S than I ghought(:-
Good Trading Dearest Friend John
Dear Bert
Very good morning
to my Dearest Friend
Good Trading Dear Bert
Actually,
it was so nice that I swam today(:-
Now that is nice, when you think you are just going to walk and end up swimming.
GOod Trading Dear All
I didn't trade today Dear Ivan ... I'm just long buckeroos ... Gonna ride them to PARITY :-)
Dear Xerxes,
Just a caution.
YOu remember what happened , the last time you felt that way.
I think it was March 2009(:- !!!
NO NO NO
NO implication we are at a similar point, please nobody get wrong ideas.
Good Trading Dear Xerxes
Dear Xerxes,
Just a caution.
YOu remember what happened , the last time you felt that way.
I think it was March 2009(:- !!!
NO NO NO
NO implication we are at a similar point, please nobody get wrong ideas.
Good Trading Dear Xerxes
I guess you had to caution me twice Dear Boris :-)
The post euro summit conference set for 2 or 3 hours hence ....
emini 258
coming on Dot Net
Good Trading
The Greeks aren't asking for euros Dear Boris and apparently nobody else wants them today either ....
Bubkes from EU summit talks, Bubkes Dear Boris ...
if you're going to screw over a bunch of tax payers by slashing their social programs that you promised them...and the potential for riots is high when do you tell them?
friday night/saturday morning
:)
EURO
bounces
From DLAP3
P R E C I S E L Y
!
GOod Trading all
We have come
to the area UPPER WALL
!
Interesting what happens here
Good Trading All
yes it did and i traded it--
old john
update
At
MarketReport
Dear John
I presume you are referring to
EURO DLAP3
So, you are now comfortable with trading currency.
Great Dear John
I am happy for you.
Frankly I do not see much difference between currency and any security, but EURO does move nicely between DLAPS DHAPS
Everybody please see AP money machine LINK on the front page
(:-
Boris
I should phrased it differently-- I used currency to trade the Qs-- almost always do that when there is a confluence. Too old to trade currencies:)
old john
Dear John
Great
What you just said is an example
of how to use the ANTISOPITALIST
Exactly, when the Market was around the low area and EURO hit the DLAP 3 that seemed like a perfect confluence of markets.
Absolutely, the , typical ad brilliant example how we work.
Besides the outline that helps us orient in certain direction, we take trades just like that you described.
As for trading QQQQ, I see no difference. Of course, you could have just as well traded FXE or any other currency ETF.
Great Dear John, for giving an example how we trade.
THAT IS HOW!
Dear John
Great
What you just said is an example
of how to use the ANTISOPITALIST
Exactly, when the Market was around the low area and EURO hit the DLAP 3 that seemed like a perfect confluence of markets.
Absolutely, the , typical ad brilliant example how we work.
Besides the outline that helps us orient in certain direction, we take trades just like that you described.
As for trading QQQQ, I see no difference. Of course, you could have just as well traded FXE or any other currency ETF.
Great Dear John, for giving an example how we trade.
THAT IS HOW!
Boris
I am more a Q person-- sometimes spx-- remember when you first started and you posted Qs-- that is what I do-- with the currencies. Always looking for the confluence
old john
Dear Boris,
Good morning.
Thanks and good trading.
I hope you enjoy your weekend.
Bert
Dear Bert,
Good Morning to you
Very Dear Friend
Good Tradng
Boris
good morning-- day off from exercise. Bought a little dto yesterday - going to do ok today.
old john
Emini259
OnDotNet
Dear John,
ENjoy, day off
Deserve it
(:-
My Very Dear Friend
EUR don't want to die here! Maybe, it could have 1-2 days rally!
Be careful with EURUSD shorts (if any)!
Dear Boris, sorry. I didn't read your comments at dotnet before I wrote this.
No Problem,
Dear Ivan,
You are OK
To write those things(:-
Good Trading Dear Friend
Moved to new post
Thanks
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