Turning UP, via Washout?

Dear Readers, Million Dollar System is on the buy ( notoriously early though), Pressure charts are on the buy, also takes 0-2 days for turnaround. Summation is on Sell, but low ( Yellow Oscillator ) can turn up anytime. YELLOW BRICK ROAD (YBR) says we could go down more into 20 Dec , at least. So, where do we go from here. Markets like to make the lows with the washout type of moves, which never happened in Nov, Could we get one here and head higher as YBR suggests. That is the most likely scenario in my mind. Please state yours. Good Trading

NOTE: for survey of GOLD/ENERGY/CURRENCIES/BONDS see the earlier posts and best of all explore the ASSET, GROUPTATION link on the right from here ( Thanks Ivan For Updates)

08:03 ET, JPY Status 1,0,0,0,0 Amazing for three days under this status JPY was able to go down in price, that is a power of (weekly signal, only one showing YEN going down). Shows how futile it , sometimes, can be to argue with a long term trend.

08:08 ET, EUR Status 0,0,1,1,1 this is another amazing phenomenon where the longer term signals weekly/daily, have just totally overwhelmed the short term 60/15/5 minute signals

Yes Dear Readers, Dollar Has now Reversed the Trends and has other currencies BOHICAED, careful here the GANN reversal day is at hand, which could make $US progress here pretty hard.

Thanks For Being With Us

Dear Readers The National SOPITALIST Casino will soon be closed for today and the Wall Street ( WELFARE STATE ) will go to burbs to count money they screwed ordinary citizens out of. NO trade today for us. While we believe in the downtrend, we do not trade unless most of things come our way and that was not the case today. So, have a nice weekend and be ready next week. ( please look at GROUPTATION Link, Ivan(thank you) tells you it is fresh). Well, Stupid me forgot to put white arrows on the chart above, but you can see where PINK oscillator almost meets the price ( FEB/AUG/NOV 2007).

"Given that fact, there's a developing trend that I want to alert you to: The possibility of a bounce in the U.S. dollar.
If global investors are spooked, they may start to abandon the idea that global growth will continue on track. And as confidence in growth wanes, I expect U.S.-based international investors to take some money off the table and bring it back home to hide.
Since their hiding place is short-term U.S. Treasury paper, they'll also be buying the dollar."

Wow! I could not have said it better. I am not going to tell you who, which big advisory is writing this ( going to millions of people), but when they started trashing Dollar last month , in a very vociferous manner(hack they called for 15-25% rally in JPY and bit less in other currencies), that is when I started to be even more confident in my forecast of Dollar bottoming around 74.xx. But look at them now... WOW! I am now confident that the downward correction in Dollar will unfold and then the rally will continue for 18 months like I kept predicting for more than a Year now. This shows you why masses are wrong, cause the people like the guys above "fool" them inadvertently all the time... Hallelujah... That is Dear Readers, why you come here... for EDUCATION, who to listen to and when. And we make money for you from time to time. Thanks God

For ISRAELI readers, capish? you understand now, why my DEC 2006 forecast SHEKEL bottoming around 3.78 by 2008 Passover(well topping(: :)), was precious(so far low 3.82!!!) ?

Limits Coming UP

N QQQQ 51.01(50.95) - 51.34
We got within 5 cents from low, predicted.
N SPX 1474 - 1488
N QID 38.35 - 38.89
Note about TKO, one of the stocks in our StocksTogo list today. It is up 6% today. What is going on. This company, I know has Internet Over PowerLine Capabilities among other things. Is something moving in this technology area. For a while all was quiet. I am sure there were unanticipated problems facing the vendors of this technology, but has something changed? Not sure, but Stock is up 6%, on a day that, almost nothing is up, and it is in our list. Please note, I do not recommend stocks and anything on this site. This is just an observation I pass onto you.

Million Dollar Buy?

Dear Readers, upon all the things we could not reconcile now we have the following. Million Dollar System - BUY(made good money one Monday short trade lost a little on last Thursday short)(Remember, this system produces notoriously early signals), Gages Mild BUY, PCratios more buy than sell. Summation lines - more buy than sell. YBR - SELL, still correct unless Monday high is taken out. Confused? You bet. With all this LONDONG FOG, do not you want SUN to finally come out? We are not playing when confused. Dollar is much stronger faster than even this observer expected(Dollar Bears are eaten alive). Gold took a dive as expected. Ditto Energy. Bonds take a Dive, as expected short term, but not articulated here lately.

I want to be INVESTOR, not Short term trader!!!

Now, when it feels like this... go to the right GROUPTATION link and survey the intermediate term picture(Ivan thanks for updates). You should notice, that with all the "bullishness" shown by market it is hardly a buy until the pink "indices" oscillator comes up to support that notion. You also see that GOLD and ENERGY, inflation trade darlings , are fading somewhat, which is all indicating, for now loss, but not disastrous loss, of liquidity in the market. This could not be good on the intermediate to longer term for the market. Now, do you feel better? Then let us just wait when all/most of the things line up in the same direction. Now, you know, why the GROUPTATION is my first station every morning

My estimate all along was that 12/2007 - 1/2008 break was the top for EURO, for the first time I would admit the possibility that I was wrong on that and top came 28/11/2007. This means that we may not see 150 EURO for another 2 years or so, even though we may retrace close to it by FEB/MAR 2008

10:09 ET, JPY Status 1,0,0,0,0 How long can JPY priece decline under this!?

Thanks For Being With Us

Dear Readers The National SOPITALIST Casino will soon be closed for today and the Wall Street ( WELFARE STATE ) will go to burbs to count money they screwed ordinary citizens out of. We did not trade today. "When in doubt... Stay out". Well, we follow most of our commandments. The systems are/were giving mixed signals. Pressure gages registered a mild BUY. PCratios are not high. Summation is on the sell, close to buy and Million Dollar System is on Sell. No sir, we do not play cards we do not like, that is it. That should not prevent somebody playing the daily limits. They had a chance of making well yesterday.

Dear John, All the tools for going long ( besides my courage, I mean lack of it) are known and given to us. You may not be watching some of them.

1) Low limit on SPX was 1472, actual 1469, known to you

2) CDMA, you can have it with simple chart programs like one Ivan Cuark gave you yesterday ( free charting) and others gave you sites like bighcharts.com etc

3) Market status, I gave for YEN but did not for stocks yesterday

4) PCRATIO is not conducive to collapse ( any lower SPX move could have meant collapse)

5) Fractal Trend exhaustion ( do not know where you can get it free)

6) TRIN, Lag was talking about it.

7) Mild buy on pressure gages

there could be more... but this is enough to start

Limits Coming UP

N QQQQ 51.21 - 51.69
N SPX 14.72 - 14.90
N QID 37.88 - 18.56
10:09 ET, EUR Status 0,0,0,1,1
10:09 ET, JPY Status 1,0,0,0,0
10:28 ET, Just muzing out loud. Considering where JPY is, can you emagine where will stocks end up if ( As I expect ) Yen turns before this weekend? Also, when was the last time bonds and stocks were down 1.5% together?
Dear JOhn, how was the low so far? 1474 versus 1472. Not bad. You are correct though. If I chose a lower volatility move today my first SPX limit would have been 1483 +-1 , but if I go for the 5th resistance then I am looking at 1489... Close.

I do not want anybody to fall out of chair, but if we were to have a bad day like it could be within the context of SELL signals, Q's may not stop short of 49.70. This is far from here.

I am still unhappy with the levels of PCratios, but, I saw them turn towards growth, so who knows, we may be able to grow them while moving lower. Bear Markets are able to do that.
12:00 ET, If we were to go through Lunch time without much correction in stocks, it could be time to worry for longs as the end of the day may unleash vicious sell off from those who lost the hope.

Dear Friends for a long time now CASH has been TRASH. Nobody wants(ed) to hold the DOLLARS, instead they wanted second homes, second boats , second wives and husbands and what not. I think people will soon learn that CASH is not TRASH as the Dollar that was dumped left and right is waking up. While I still think we have last move down left in Dollar. I believe the most unloved and unwanted thing toady is $USdollar and I suggest those that went on the binge spending their EUROS be careful, for my forecast for next 18 months is stronger Dollar( And I do not mean the way Treasury Secretary does(: :))

Dear Readers, Brandon, Blaine, IF this 15 area gives on WAMU ( Washington Mutual), It may not find the footing til 9.5 , almost half of today's value

Now What?

Dear Readers, my initial estimate that yesterdays late day rally would bring the buy signal on the summation line was debunked by actual calculations. Now we are still on the SELL signal, even though the pressure chart indicates SPX buy pressure growing. This means that if market can confirm the move lower by another powerful move down, that could have an avalanche quality and could lead into the (mini or full) crash by next Thursday +-1 trading days. For what it is worth my Million Dollar System is still on the SELL after selling markets last Thursday and this Monday ( Both Profitable, especially the one this week). I hope Dear Stan is watching this, cause he was concerned that Million Dollar System somehow was not looking "Million Dollar", cause the market has managed couple false rallies after it sold last Thursday. Dear Stan, Buy signal has not yet been generated and we could still lose or gain on these two sells from the system, but it demonstrates that systems have "drawdowns" and I have seen this system lose 100 SPX points before turning around and making money( of course, you are not going to see me play that game. What I do, I take a note where the signal is and then try taking positions in that context with the help of LIMITS and miniscule risks). Of course 20% time it lost and I am not going to tolerate 100 SPX point drawdowns(maybe I should, cause it gained over 600% in less than a YEAR(: :)).

To understand where other assets GOLD/ENERGY/CURRENCIES stand, look at the Grouptation link and see the asset charts( remember to read Dollar inversely from other assets)

08:22 ET, JPY Status 1,0,0,1,0 This Status of JPY could not possibly support Stock market

08:29 ET, EUR Status 0,0,0,1,1

08:30 ET, PPI est=.5 ,act=3.2 retail est=0.6, act=1.2 This is the story $US Dollar is telling this morning, Needless to say, Currencies are lower and the Metals are indecisive( higher inflation supportive after fact, higher Dollar not good going forward?), I expect Metals lower into Dec 20 and rally thereafter.

Dear Brandon WM is in the SELL list, but only under 70% reliable. So It does not show up in my list, as I give only 80% better chances(not playing games with my money or yours(: :)).