Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Citizens For Honest Mmarkets Manifesto

Here is the Game Goldman Wins. Not Because It is smarter, But it is richer. Rich Always win the games, Especially where the Money talks not the brains. So Do not confuse the high salaries at Goldman with brains, they are lucky to have the money to play the game the way , few people can.
So, how do the Goldman's play the game?
Here is how. Typical user is set up to trade the way the picture shows in above portion. Individual's trade orders must go through layers of network/router and processing machine(s) ( especially at the brokers) to reach the destination. That is the same for either initiated query or order placement. Even the query done by the software without users request must go via the same/similar path. This means that information is delayed at every step of the path. Even though each one of these steps is small time for human EYE, it is eternity for computers. Even if individual is really a programmed computer(many individual platforms now offer scripted/programmed trading) the time delay , especially compared to the GOLDMAN's set up is enormous. This translates into following: Goldman computers can see the depth of the exchange offerings very fast and then react in a way that almost guarantees the picture is frozen and same as "last seen" by Goldman computer. Individual user is , practically , guaranteed that they see a changing picture, especially in high volume, fast moving markets and/or securities. Why do you think, you see millions of C/SIRI/AIG etc. shares of bankrupt/almost stocks is seen daily? . Yes, Goldman is a volume consumer! Please understand, there is nothing illegal about any of what is described above. People that had the ticker tapes in Great Depression made lot of money, while the rest lost everything. Goldman is using BRUTE POWER to make money. Yes, there is some smarts in in what they do, but nothing you and I could not do for few hundred thousand dollars. Stay tuned as we will get into more details of protocols and parsers as we will illustrate how much further Goldman types can enhance their advantages over others. Let me also point out that besides stupid day traders(most of them) the targets of Goldman types are institutions. Remember the example of the CANCEL/REPLACE mentioned in previous installment. Ok Reread again. You already know, you and I do not place orders for 100000 IBM shares. Institutions ( funds, pensions etc) do.
1027.30 1028.61 1030.73 1033.38 spx 1021.77 1020.46 1018.34 1015.6

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Need few days of distribution

Remember Please, Distribution here is used in the context of Rising, sideways market. It could continue few days and few points, nobody exactly knows, but Distribution does not mean market is going down tomorrow necessarily.

Saturday, August 22, 2009

Friday, August 21, 2009

Things have become Jumpy, fast





The picture below shows the Pink oscillator, which was stopped dead around the zero line, instead of piersing it and moving the market lower with it. That is unfortunately for bears , a clear, distinct charaterstic of the bull market in its distribution phase, which , again, unfortunately for bears, can last long times. You see that imprinted in an (almost) aimless zigzag of the PCratio oscillators.

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Some more downside?

Th chart below is our proprietary recession indicator, It has captured the Market and economy decline in 2008 with absolute brilliancy. Where is it now. Read the comments inside chart please.
985.37 987.19 990.14 993.82 spx 977.69 975.87 972.92 969.25

Yesterdays, PCratio was clearly not (:- to bulls (in a short run). How about today? see the chart below( coming)


CITIZENS FOR HONEST MARKETS MANIFESTO.


Today we will lay down few details about how we see the the really honest markets functioining. The purpose is two fold.

1) Let Trading Public Understand what the real issues are

2) Present initial requirements for HONEST MARKETS


Markets, exchanges have evolved in all kinds of ways. But basic principles have remained the same. The people closest to order flow, have always had an edge over the people removed from the order flow , by layers of brokers and means of delivery of orders. So, nothing changed, truly nothing and there is no amount of misconceptions spewed by those that think they are helping fairness issue or those that would like to present things as fair and square will help.


Introduction


The truth is that in some shape and form( mostly electronic) you still have the order flow advantages that can be gained by the deep pocket market players over the rest of traders/investors.


Why is that, who/what has replaced the floor broker ( who used to control order flow, could see all orders, while people could only see bid/offer). Floor brokers have been replaced by computers and routers ( electronic network facilities). Those who are closer to the exchange floor computers ( that run BOOKs, market algorithms that manage orders) and routers ( network traffic directors, like the traffic lights that regulate which car goes next into the intersection), can accrue big advantage, as they can see the orders faster and wider than other participants in the markets. If there was one exchange, there would be this advantage for sure, but add to this that there are different exchanges(countries and state), with different rules and it will become clear that the market is the wild west to be fought for by organisations with deep pockets and global interests to get the "front view" of the order "market depth" ( market participants bid and offer maps away from highest bid and lowest offer ( only view market had for a long time before electronic markets).

Joke, sort of. Boris, I understand all of that, but why/how is that important. Well, imagine. I place an order to sell 1000000(million ) shares of IBM( hUH!) and somebody comes in with the order to buy it. Now, If I could see buyers order and take my sell order away or just grant few shares instead, what happens! HUH! What happens is that I know there is buyer there for 1000000 shares of IBM and will try to raise the price on him/her buy offering the rest of the million shares at higher prices. I have forced the market participant to play with me with


------------ OPEN CARDS ---------------


The only reason I was able to do that is that I was able to CANCEL( SEND THE FIX PROTOCOL CANCEL or CANCEL/REPLACE) order faster than the buyer could get his/her order onto the BOOK.

Yes , this is like going to casino having to know the cards of every players. Do you think I would have advantage? And there are other games played in the markets. Do not get me going. So, all of those talking in abstract, please stop and level with people. If you do not tell, I WILL



Now, Please Note, I said nothing, so far, about legality of these kind of games.


Continuation to follow



We discuss the role of routers and protocols and the scanners and parsers, which are responsible to get this "total market picture" and react fast.
What Does Antisopitalist's Attraction Point and Beethoven have in Common? Read the text inside the picture while you may like to listen to this as you read the picture

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

PCratio Curled

Another Splendid Example Of AP( Attraction Point ) Trading, with the days top( as predicted) ending up BULLS-EYE at the Fifth Intraday High Attraction Point ( FIHAP).
988.11 990.09 993.30 997.30 spx 979.75 977.77 974.56 970.5

Sunday, August 16, 2009

AP triumph

994.34 998.82 1006.08 1015.13 spx 975.44 970.96 963.70 954.65

Dear Reader, We present here One of the clearest and pretty abundant examples of AP ( Attraction Point) confluences. I have discovered this method about 5 years ago. I am as excited as I was first time. I can never get over the beauty and usefulness of this concept in the market and especially when it is practiced in the confluence form, just like below.