From Passover To Passover, Challenge

920.99 925.06 931.65 939.87 spx 903.82 899.74 893.15 884.9


Please see MEGA CALLS on this site or "Shekels on Dollar" at the http://www.safehaven.com/ , archives "boris chikvashvili"

This picture here is a challenge to anyone who thinks they can forecast. If they can produce any forecast of over one year long with this precision, I will warship the land they walk on!

And more so, if anybody can produce the YBR ( see next post) type of prediction for 2 years with that precision, I will , forever, bow to that person.

We have sold the market today 0.5 away from the daily session high of 916.50. Hallelujah!

Help Me With This question Please

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Help me answer the question Please? What are we experiencing? Is this a bear market rally or cyclical bear rally?

Please understand, there are these nagging questions ever since 666 was hit on SPX. Is this rally
1) Secular Bull Market rally
2) Cyclical Bull Run within General Bear Market
3) Bear Market Rally
Ok, what the hell are these terms?
Here we go. Secular Bull market is , if you can imagine, when every 3,4 year we get new high in the market( on a real , noninflationary market bases). Examples are years 1949-1963 rally, and 1982-2000 rally. Cyclical bull run is a rally like 1973 rally and rallies till 1982 that, on inflation adjusted bases did not go over highs of 1967, but reached almost as high and higher on nominal bases. And then there are bear market rallies , like all rallies in the period of 1930-1932. where the market kept making newer lows and certainly not reaching the highs of previous 4-5 years.

Ok, now that we have defined, more or less , what we mean by terms. Where are we? Help me please!
I think we are in either Cyclical bull run or in Bear Market rally. Certainly not in the Secular Bull Market. Having that said, when Am I going to know and tell you that we are or are not in a Bear market rally. What difference does that make? Ok, here is the difference it makes. If we are in 1930-1932 type Bear market rally, then we should just about be crapping out and stopping any rise above where we are. Anything else would seem to be time and price wise out of character from that bear market. On the other hand if we are in the Cyclical bull run. Guess what? We could go as high as 1600 on SPX and at least 1060 may not too far for this rally eventually. Well looking at YBR one may get some answers, but I cannot divulge that at this point.

Regardless, I can let you in on the secret. There is only one category, ONE ONLY(YES, HALLELUJAH!) that will keep you above the water , housed and clothed and safe in all three market environments and even more so, if we are not in the SECULAR bull market( which we claim we are not in).

YES , that is a SAFE DIVIDEND PLAY.

America, Do you Hear this? In spite of my broken ENGLISH that gets bad day by day, I hope I can still say this in a way that all of you can UNDERSTAND. Play of SAFE DIVIDEND was the PLAY and in many senses is still the Investment PLAY you want to go with, regardless of where you think market goes.

So, For DUMMIES LIKE me. It is was/is the easiest decision to put Portion of my money in the SAFE DIVIDEND PLAY that will keep my family supported No MATTER how well my brain perceives the current investment environment.

I LOVE TO DO OK, even when I am wrong and the method I preach Is the Methods I use and it is already proving a gold mine to anyone who listens.
While details are preserved for SUBSCRIBERS, I have told you FREE, Dear Fellow Citizen how to survive and what to do. God Bless you. I think, though I kept my promise of helping you through these tough times. I can only hope , you are listening and doing what needs to be done

Sign Of Hope For Bears

My apologies for gettint to these pictures From Dear Ralph too late. Shame on me. Just forgot with all other things going. Thanks Dear Ralph

926.39 929.06 933.39 938.78 spx 915.13 912.46 908.13 902.74

Day Two Of Testing

931.91
933.36
935.71
938.64
spx
925.80
924.35
922.00
919.07

All markets are under test today. Everything is at the crossroads. Dollar Strength suggested by our Dollar Asset chart ( see few posts down) could dictate landscape for a while. If Dollar is, indeed, to just get stronger then the consequences are clear. Everything else, more or less down to various degree. Especially EURO down. Some securities may survive a bit better. Like Gold and Stocks Market, but... When/If Dollar goes higher here the only thing good to be in, will be CASH DOLLAR. As traders, we have idea where things may go, but as traders we never risk much to achieve our goals. We do not give here the tactics and details of trades, but we do have them and subscribers only get those.

Looks Ripe For a test

915.2645
916.7145
919.0635
921.9925
spx
909.1455
907.6955
905.3465
902.4175

DID YOU REMEMBER OUR FAX RECOMMENDATION? SEE PICTURE

I mean the shorting test for the market. Kind of a "STRESS TEST" for DOW(n)? JONES(:-. Yesterday I suggested shorting at the top of the range and market has gone back above that overnight , reaching the old high area and now we are down over 12 points. So, one can not always play the COFFEE money stop and go away. EIther a small position should be played overnight or none. So, now, perhpas if market pops, we can administer a STRESS TEST of ours on it and sell it, but if market goes down without giving a chance that is fine too. We are never chasing anything. I personally have reduced more of my exposure to everhing and have either protected and/or rebalanced things in a way that I am now less in everything,but cash. So my cash is now at 50%, while stocks are protected , but 15% and Commodities and bonds have been reduced to 15 and 20% respectively.

Markets Waiting For resolution

This info os for 5/5/2009

Please make correction to the text inside Arrow ( better make higher shoulder is what I meant there).

Markets are still , mostly meandering in the trends started last month, but things need to come to resolutions soon. We shorted EMINI at 883, and got to 862 , I hope nobody is holding too much shorts and collected profits along the way. Whatever shorts are left should be stopped at break even.

New Game?

Below, you see the Stocks at Startdom (AST) with dates. Nobody can mistake the breath of this market from low 100 to 1244 stocks that are above their own FAHAP( first Annual High Attracton Points). Are there any stocks left to joing the STARDOM?(:-. This is a very, very high number. And break in this uptrend will be one of the first signals for the end of the bull phase. So, far not seen that!
475 ast20080720
511 ast20080727
517 ast20080802
455 ast20080809
509 ast20080816
496 ast20080823
523 ast20080829
400 ast20080906
406 ast20080913
472 ast20080920
339 ast20080927
173 ast20081005
113 ast20081012
110 ast20081026
133 ast20081101
125 ast20081108
113 ast20081115
103 ast20081122
122 ast20081129
111 ast20081205
108 ast20081212
113 ast20081219
112 ast20081226
141 ast20090102
108 ast20090109
109 ast20090118
103 ast20090124
104 ast20090130
214 ast20090307
268 ast20090312
366 ast20090319
687 ast20090404
989 ast20090411
1022 ast20090418
1054 ast20090425
1244 ast20090503

Did we start new game Yesterday? Well , we may have. As the Pressure chart indicates though, we got very deep with the orange ( Buy Average Oscillator) and that will have an echo right shoulder, which may well give us a higher prices in stocks. It is not over till it is over. So, keep current stops and collect some profits.