Friday, December 09, 2011

GOLD, PumpAndDump & ECB's Draghi Speach

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7 comments:

VentiAwake said...

There are only five people in history who have managed to consistently predict the market correctly in more than twenty years. There are countless ones who managed to be on the right track for a few years and then vanished. So far your prediction has been pretty good-sometimes scarily good. But who's there to say that this is not one of the cases of just a hot hand?

boris said...

Dear VentiWake
You are right,
there are hot hands and cold hands and I expreience them alternately myself.

But let us not mix that with what is given in this picture.

THE AP METHOD is UNIVERSAL.
IT Is based on immutable laws of nature and that is the reason it works,

JUST LIKE 666 in SPX March 2009 predicted months before it happened.

Just like tops of 2010 and 2011.
in SPX.

Just like the Graphs shown in the link on the right( AP money mahcine) where the occurances of AP buy/sell events appear slmost daily! on EURO.

There is nothing rare of AP events such as this described on this picture. It happens all the time.

In fact it happens so much so that we look for confluences of them on multiple securiries to better assertain the power of the event.

Still, i agree with you that market is a great humbler. I should know that(:-.

Now, the interesting thing though is that this precision action of prices around APs, is the one that allows the HIGH Reward/Riks ration trades. Thus the "trading without ulcers".

Thanks Dear Friend VentiAwake

boris said...

To make sure, the above posts are better understood, I must add that, Attraction Point method has nothing to do with Market Forecasting.
NOTHING AT ALL.

AP method is a trading method and with a small risk one is able to get into trade. for a duration of the profitable action. One needs to know/forecast NOTHING with an hourly AP. One just needs to place the trade, make a small loss stop and watch the market bring the money in in few minutes/hours.

Nothing is forecast for any lenght of time to speak.

Again. AP is not forecasting anyting. It is just saying.

"
if prices got here, near AP, likeliood is high for prices to correct from there
"

That is all. Nothin is sayd above about timing. Trader decides what the stop and profit entry points are, Regardless of any durable market predictions.

Ok,
Thanks for the opportunity to esplain the AP method

VentiAwake said...

When you post plots with future trends and turning points days/months ahead, it is forecasting. I don't know your overall accuracy, but the plots you made public in the past are apparently very impressive. That makes me puzzled or rather dazzled. It has been said that prediction/forecasting works best backwards. Could there exist some theoretical/psychological model that can "sense" the future? Obviously a very limited few has done it in the past.

boris said...

Dear VentiAwake,
I post , from time to time, ahead of time FOR PUBLIC consumption.

For subscribers, postings are comensurate with the subscription period. Those Subscribing for One year, have a 6 months "look ahead on the market " at all times.

So, outsiders are impressed from snippets of the forecast. Insiders/Subscribers are even more impressed , I only hope, because they see my forecasts far ahead in the future.

There are people that have seen my LOOK AHEAD on SPX 4 years ahead( i ran special once for 2 year subscribers to get a 4 year forward look at the markets).

I was not a believer, before, so, I placed few of these forecasts at SAFEHAVEN, just to make sure , that I was not cheating myself and claiming things that never happened!!!

So, making public some of my earlier forecasts and snippets all along, I was trying to verify that I was not deceiving myself and was giving chance for others to say if my forecasts were worth or not.

Thankfully, Those foreacsts have proven, largely correct and 3-4 years ahead of time and i got the recognition.

To say that I am now confident about the ability of YBR to predict the future, is correct, as reall life experiment proves it. But, homestly, i am scared that one day GOD says, "enough Boris, your magic shall now stop".

It can happen. I do not know when though and until then, We all should enjoy that I was given that wisdom to , actually, PRDICT FUTURE.

To conclude, I must emphasize again that AP( Attraction Point) method is not a prediction in any long term sense of the word.

AP method allows to take a position at the WALL of rejection ( UP OR DOWN) and then how long and how profitable that would be is up the trading skills of an individual using the method.

Our motto, therefore , is simple one.

EVERY BIG MOVE STARTS FROM THE SMALL MOVE IN THE SAME DIRECTION

That simply means that one can take a SMALL/NO RISK position in the PERCIEVED long term trend( based on YBR for example) and if it turns out to be correct then one can celebrate many months of the profits.

Case in Point: On 6/3/2009, at SPX=666 we issued a buy signal in the market. We had the Long/ANNUAL AP on the buy and we had short Intraday/daily AP on the BUY. We had a 1(ONE!!!) spx point as a stop!!! and market rose over 100% since then.

How about making a short term bet that jived with a long term trend?

What I am trying to say is that FORECASINT IS A BACKGROUND against which we work. The real action is in the method, which is AP( ATTRACTION POINT,TM ANTISOPITALIST) . If we did not have YBR/WBR working, we would still be using AP, for all its worth, because it is totally independent from our predictive capabilities.

Thanks for the questions and opportunity to clarify the difference between the forecasting and trading.

In the end it is making money that is the object of being in the market and, in my honest opinion, the AP method is a more valuable UNIVERSAL tools than YBR and WBR for a trader.

For an investor, of course, YBR and WBR seem to present a better value/tool as for ASSET ALLOCATOR, often , it does not matter( in a long run) where one bought each single portion of the asset. All that matters is that those assets were purchased over time at favorable valuations. For that a long term view of YBR is practically GOD SEND
(:-

Thanks Again Dear VentiAwake

john said...

Ventiawake

Been with Boris almost 5 years. Do not trade as much as I used to because of a situation.
It is not a hot hand. I remember 666-- in March of 09--

boris said...

Dear John,
Thanks For Being with us
My Dearest Friend