Sunday, March 20, 2011

Einstein Of The Markets

33 comments:

merlin6 said...

Boris,
I just recently stumbled across your blog site and wanted you to know that I find your offerings quite interesting. Thanks for sharing, and keep up the good work.

boris said...

Dear merlin6
Good To hear from
and glad to share
from time to time
That is the least I can do
as an expression of thanks to
our creator for making me able
to see the future some limited way

Good Trading Dear Friend

boris said...

PLEASE NOT
THE emini graph
WENT OUT
TO YOUR EMAIL BOXES
+
mr

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Good morning.
The emini chart was not attached to the email that I received.
Thanks and good trading.

Bert

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Never mind.
I got it at the dotnet.
Thanks for all your work.

Bert

boris said...

Sorry about that
Dearest Bert
Good Trading All

boris said...

Emini
on Market Report
and
Your Email Box

boris said...

Emini
coming
to your email

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Good day.
I believe that it is already the 25th where you live, so HAPPY BIRTHDAY!
I hope that you have a great day and a wonderful year to come.
Thank you for all of your efforts and good work.
One of your many friends,

Bert

boris said...

Dear Bert,
Thank you
Very Dear Friend
Thanks to all
For being such great friends

Greenie said...

Greetings Boris and friends. I am back here after long time. Hope all is well !!

Speaking of Einstein, I just noticed this from the genius himself. Any comment?

boris said...

Dear Greenie,
Welcome back.

If I understand correctly, among other things , you would like to know what I think about this issue of Jewish People Being Chosen.
Also, it seems to me, that you quest to comprehend in ABSOLUTE terms if Jewish People Are Chosen.

Here is my answer.
Just following my silent mentor( Albert Einstein), I would say that, I cannot speak in absolute terms as everything, I say, is
ABSOLUTELY RELATIVE(:- and not joking or playing with words either.

I would say that Einstein, like all of us, had a lot of ambivalent feelings. I must believe that he had some kind of GOD or he would not
be able to say "You want to tell me that GOD throws dice?" That was his remark to Inventor of "QUANTUM PHYSICS UNCERTAINTY PRINCIPLE"
Dr. Heisenberg, about impossibility to identify the location of a particle at any given time ( which by definition leads to principle of wave instead of
particle).

So, his GOD may have been different from what other people believe is GOD. Today the Concept of GOD( system of beliefs ) is even more dispersed
and personal than at his time. So, Yes, I have my Cosmic Limits, that I call my own GOD and I do not know if it is even close to anybody else's understanding
what/who GOD is.

I think I will stick with the definition of everything being ABSOLUTELY RELATIVE( Again not trying to play with words) and stick with my own
belief systems without judging if what others ascribe to their GOD is right or wrong. Who am I to tell others what their system of beliefs should be, as long as , it does not hurt others.

So, I may not be coming even close to answering your questions, but I cannot answer questions that seem to have no ABSOLUTE answers.
I have my own COSMIC GOD and that is enough for me.

Nevertheless, and as a consequence of the above, I have great respect for other people to think of their GOD and religion any way they like, and that
includes Dear Einstein.

Not being able to answer your questions or relate to the document indicated in your post, in ABSOLUTE terms, I will answer for myself only.
Jewish history is full of POGROMS, HOLOCAUST, REBIRTH of Israel and Hebrew. If this is enough for Some Jews and others to call Jews as
"CHOSEN PEOPLE" then so be it. I personally feel the Jewish History and experience, but do not feel as a person I am different from anybody
apart from being Jewish and sharing this unique history of Jewish people.

Thanks Dear Friend.

Boris Chikvashvili

Greenie said...

Thank you Boris taking time to respond to my question. You provided me much food for thought.

I wish continued success in all your efforts.

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Good morning.
Thanks for all the work you did and shared over the weekend.
Good trading.

Bert

boris said...

Dear Bert,
Thank you very much
Very Dear Friend
It is all worth it
when I have the most appreciating
investors on board.

boris said...

Emini
On the way to your email

boris said...

Emini
on its way to your email

VOLTAIRE said...

Well that yellow brick road worked out well, NOT!

VOLTAIRE said...

The idea of a god is destructive in that it allows people to waste their lives in this life and rely on "heaven" as nirvana.

"Chosen" people is even worse as it breeds an arrogance. You see it not only in Israel but in the US as well who regard themselves as an "exceptional" people who god has blessed.

Only when we see one another as equals or brothers does that nonsense cease.

boris said...

Dear Voltaire
good to hear from you again.

I am not sure what is wrong with
GOD defined as system of beliefs.

At least that is how I defined it.
If you are then, against system of beliefs then I would be remiss at what is a human to do, unless he/she is a ROBOT.

Good Trading Dear Friend

boris said...

Dear Voltaire,
I am not sure, if you are making a statement or asking question
in the above

" Well that yellow brick road worked out well, NOT!"

In any case, here is my answer.

YBR is ONE hell of a tool.
Just Like English is one hell of a language for those who know it.

I hope you are getting my drift.

Trader needs many tools.

I challenge anybody( I did once this before). To come up with anything even close to YBR's ability to get the big picture correct(on real market bases).

Now, is that enough on its own.
Not really. Not in one's life.

For a human to be a success in any of the fields of activity they must be well versed.

Even the street thieved need to be flexible and change their methods to adept to where and how they operate( bring this here not to lower the level of the discussion, but to show that even at the lowest levels of activity success comes from DIVERSE KNOWLEDGE).

So, now wonder that we do not rely on YBR alone.

Our tool chest is large and diversified and includes, technical and fundamental, sentiment information that allows us to ascertain the risk and reward of possible trades very clearly.

Those who know up close how we make decisions, know that. Those who do not, are welcome to try them.

Success speaks for itself.

We were long all along in the market from about November 2008 ( YBR has not bottomed yet, but GOLD , SWISSY did). And remained so.

Our tools of the choice were not stocks market alone, but a mix of 55% of (stocks commodities=GOLD,OIL) from March 2009 and Short Dollar about 40% to( symbol of long market again). Now we are still LONG(:-, with 20% (stocks and commodities) and 55% Short Dollar.

Combined performance of such portfolio is better than being 100% invested in the stock market, because GOLD and ANTIDOLLAR(currencies) in aggregate has done WAY BETTER than then the 100 Long in Stocks.

So, there, our tools and thinking (diversified as they are) helped us to do what was right thing to do.

That is all we care.

And we are not even counting a short term trading of 660 pts of SP Gain, which ALONE is close to the total gain of SPX from 2009/March lows.

I am sure there FEW in the world who may claim (best yet, document) better performance, but we are satisfied with out own.
javascript:void(0)
Good Tradaing Dear Voltaire.

VOLTAIRE said...

Thanks for response and I know your work is better than 99% of other gurus.

As for the religious question, I should have made it clear I think as badly about Islam as I do about western religions. All a crook of shit and it demeans us as primitives. When not an iota of evidence supports it, it brands as as insecure and needing of hand holding because we can't face reality. About time we grew up and became adults not childish savages.

You nearly won me with your posts on other media the other week but your YBR has been just plain wrong since and I am glad I didn't subscribe. The last 2 weeks would have seen the YBR followers broke.

Yes you will be right again I know and I love your independent thoughts and brilliant ideas.

All the best.

boris said...

Dear Voltaire,

I believe you need a MANUAL.
Here it is.

1) Look For YBR for turning points
allow couple weeks of error.
2) Use other tools to trade YBR
IS NOT A TRADING TOOL.
3) If you have your tools , that is nice. If not we can help you

Good Trading Dear Friend

USING YBR ANY OTHER WAY IS INDEED CHILDISH and You know that.

boris said...

Dear Voltaire,
I am not going tell anybody
how to define and worship their
GOD.

That as simple as that.
I think, GOD is personal things( how ever one wants to define it).

I am sure you are more critical of GOD as a mass concept, but , I cannot help that neither can you.

People with similar experiences seem to come up with similar prejudice.

I Like STEELERS, cause I am Carnegie Mellon U Graduate( maybe also because they won 6 super bowls)

Muslims love Mohammed because it is connects to their history.

Jews love their God, because it has kept them as Jews and those that GOD was not able to keep in line, were told by others and example is EINSTEIN AGAIN.

He said one occasion:

I would not know I am JEW unless I was reminded of it(:-

So, I respect all superstitions and childishness that different people have it.

In fact, i love that diversity.

Sorry, If with all my degrees I sound childish, but I am what I am.

Of course, as always you and I are entitled to our opinions.


Where I totally agree with you, is that, if/when organized religion or any other superstition is used for hurting others, I DISAGREE WITH THAT.

Good Trading Dear VOLTAIRE

boris said...

In fact Dear Voltaire
to be equal opportunity neutral

I am not going to tell anybody
how to define and worship

THEIR GODLESSNESS (:- HUH either.

Good Trading Very Dear Friend

boris said...

Dear Voltaire
One more thing that should be helpful in identification of how well the YBR did as a general market direction predictor.

Please chart

VT:FXF

VT=Vanguard Total WORLD Market ETF
FXF=Swiss Frank.

That will tell you in no uncertain terms that NOT JUST USA markets

WOLD MARKETS are down from APRIl 2010!

I hope you are impressed.

And what did we ask our subsribers to invest in , mostly last year and a half.

YES, SWISSY.

Dear Voltaire, I am in no mood to tease you about subscribing to my service(:-

It is upto you.

In fact, being from DOWN under you would have done just as well by keeping your money in AUSSIE Dollar.

Congrats Dear Voltaire.
It is good to INCREASE PURCHASE POWER, even if ONE DOES NOT, really know why!

boris said...

Yes
the charting can be done
at

www.stockcharts.com

boris said...

General Observation.
We had couple our previous subscribers take a podium and
remark about none/bad performance of our systems.

While, they would say completely nothing about our warning given to them free, just before the March fall.

That is the kind of thank you one gets for being generous.

Kidding actually, but can somebody explain why, people seem to like to point out one's failures and not the success?

I know why, that satisfies their ego. See Boris, they would like to say. You are prone to failure as well.


Of course, I am.

But market is UNQUESTIONABLY about failures and successes.

Otherwise, there is no market(:-

the only thing that separates real failures from real successes is the ability to take small losses in stride and keep going along.

Anyone that looks at my 660 or so SPX points gained sees that the way that was made was by taking small failures and collecting big on gains.

That is the definition of success in the markets. In fact, I know some people that had made success in the markets even with having more failures than successes in individual trades.

In any case the point here is simple.

1) both of the cases we had element of not knowing what our system and/or advice was( In general I do not give that free)

2) People maybe addressing the latest event and it could be failure indeed

As described above , failures are part of the success in the market.

Heck Greatest HOOP player Michael Jordan had only 45% precision!!!

boris said...

While at it,
I would like to point a very, very simple, clear fact.

After about August 2010, the short term trading has become PRACTICALLY impossible.

Just one look at our own trades shows that our own short term trading has for all practical purposes DIED after late 2010.

That was expected and need to be understood.

Even a casual observer can see that markets have become devoid of volume laster and participation and was mainly driven higher by the gobs of money printed by FED.

In the process, the elite, trying to up the market has chosen a clandestine way of doing that.

What is that, Boris. Do not keep us in suspense...

No problem, Most of gains or even losses during last year of trading came outside of regular NYCity trading hours!

Yes, Elite does not want to spend too much money while they have

A MANDATE

Raise the market!!!

If you are with me so far, then you need to be congratulated, because you now see the reasons why the markets are the way they are.

Markets will come back and liquidity( real trading liquidity not the FED spoon fed liquidity) will reign again and short term trading will be interesting again.

For now, we keep our powder dry.

john said...

To ALL
I think I maybe the longest subscriber to Boris. Been with him at the start.
1. The individual is responsible for his/her trades- no one else.
2. I tend to trade short term and his 5 minute numbers are out of this world correct.
3. I consider YBR an outline but no more than that as the market is rigged more than ever-- and that is coming from someone who is not really experienced
The Fed is attempting to keep this thing afloat for one reason-- state and municipal pensions--
2 things are keeping people from the streets number 1 is the food stamps, etc. and 2. the municipal pensions are doing ok now-- whether you agree or not-- without police and fire -- huge problems
( full disclosure-- i am a retired one of them)

old john

boris said...

Dear John,
How correct you are.

Yes, if LOYAL gov employees, were to be made enemy of establishment on top of general none government workers then it would be, exactly as you said.

USA will crumble, just like RUSSIA did.

So, Bernanke et all as correctly stated, is willing to screw all of USA slowly ( via devaluation and purchase power lost, especially by retired people) than quickly, which is not as good of an option as it once was( when deficits , therefore readjustment ) were possible relatively without social catastrophe.

AMEN, Dear John,
We had this discussion in 2008 right in the middle of a collapse at Manhattan beach California and agreed that , it was a final nail in USA if municipal and gov workers were to get disgruntled.

Thank You Dearest Friend

john said...

Boris

great call on the timing today

john

boris said...

Dearest!
JOhn
ENjoy in good
Health
+
Wealth
My Dear Friend