Monday, July 26, 2010

Put Call Ratio, rolling towards bearish, but not there yet




31 comments:

boris said...

emini 365
at
Market Report

boris said...

5 min data
On

Market Report

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Good morning.
Thanks and good trading.

bert

boris said...

Dear Bert,
Good Morning
And Good Trading
My Very Dear Friend

Mike Truong said...

haha

I think the worst thing about trading is to be right about a direction and still lose because the timing is wrong. I watched 2 important turns the past years Mar 09, and April 10 come and go and not been able to participate because the market has shaken me out early both time thus making me skittish at the opportune time. Also both time the confirmation of the trend change never revealed itself entirely because the retrace never reach a point where it made sense to jump in. Very frustrating. I would rather lose money on a trade that totally went against the setup than to lose money on a trade that was anticipated but not happened in a time frame as expected. I would bet to the day that I decide to cover my short or sell my longs that the market turn. Also every time I tried to hold for a conviction trade has turned out badly because the trade does not materialize until the pain threshold was reached. It funny that I had pegged 1130-1135 as the possible turn area along with 1170 also but was rebuffed by the move on July 16th. Ohh well we all have to learn our lesson eventually..

boris said...

Dear Michael,
Please see the answer to your
question abot the
Longs we initiated on July one around 1011 and sold it around 1075 on July 7.

Pictures emails proof is not only there. It should in everybody's emails records and simply in the post records on this as well as DotOrg site.

THat is the best we can do.
Trading is hard business, but we have the real time records to show that we bought at 1011 and sold at 1075.

That is just a fact and that is how we have close to 600 pts of spx gains. QUetly and comfortably.

Now, being independent is good, as it eventually pays in learning, but I think that if/when one follows the more steady approach of ours, things work out just fine.

I will bring those records as pictures on this post and everybody , even readers see that trade.

Thanks for juggling our memory.

Good Trading Dear Miachael.

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

I was simply ranting about the way the market seems to whipsaw the smaller traders like myself who do not trade futures. Simply put, having to endure several whipsaw that although did not affect my account greatly, the overall effect from the cost involve in the trades added up. Eventually I had to look for confirmation or a retrace to participate in your emailed position. Simply put I behaved exactly as the market would expect someone who has been hit too many times to behave thus either forcing me to chase the trade (very bad form) or sit out and wait and wait for confirmation that may or may not come. In other word, there really is not much more you could have done for us small subs. Also the 1250 - 950 range have been discussed ad nausea through much of the web because that is/was the expected behavior of the market for the next 3-4 years. I do sincerely appreciate your guidance. I have only one suggestion/complaint which I hope you will address at some point. I do appreciate your way of trading in presenting both a bull/bear case at each juncture. I think the problem for me is that at critical juncture it is hard to decipher whether your outlier scenario is the possible correct one or is the expected scenario the more likely one. For instance, at the April turn you have continue to say that 1200-1220 is the most likely top but at the same time that we could continue all the way to 1270. With that in mind, when you took the 1217 sell, and the subsequent retrace of that sell, it was hard to know if indeed the 1217 was the top or if we were heading higher. By the time confirmation comes with no retrace on the second touch of 1217, we were already 30 pts below the entry point. At that point I had to ask if chasing here is correct or should I wait for another retrace. For me had the 1270 number not been in my head at the time, I would have put in the trade at the second 1217 hit or even chase it a bit lower...Again hindsight will always be 20/20. The thing was I was 85 percent sure that we have indeed possibly top but having been whip-lashed that past few times did not follow my conviction. Indeed the same could be said about the recent bottom. Your mentioning of the possibility of the ultimate low for this YBR cycle kept me from being bullish even though I turned bullish on July 19th. It is frustrating because even though I feel like I have learned a lot, I still could not applied what I learn so far due to indecision.

Thanks Boris,

Michael

boris said...

Dear Michael,
I try to teach the thinking of a trader. Not some unrealizable situation where market is knowable and therefor definiteve statments can be made about them.

I my life, I have never been able to give myself a definitive go on any trade. I am always full of doubts about market next direction. In some cases doubts are strong(er) and some cases they are milder, but they are always there.

I would a false teacher, if I told anyone that market will something for sure.

But there is no zigzag and uncertainty in my trading.

I am dam sure, what am i doing and how much I am willing to lose( which is always not much(:-) when I put a trade.

One and only thing I can control is that. When am I out of the market if does not do what I think it will do.

THat is it.

ALways uncertain about markets
Always certain about what my actions will be


Thata is my life as a trader and as a teacher.

I cannot teach falshood and eliminate the possibilities out my thinking and delivery to my subscribers.

I cannot do that as a person and as a scientist for whom the truth is the most important attribute about what I do.

Unfortunately, the truth is

PROBABILISTIC

As great Heizenberg priciple states

So, there. The explanation that I can never give you or myself any assurance about what markes are going to do.

All I can do is advise about trade or show my trade and my actions.

That it.

I hope that this is another lesson that you will be able to learn and internalize if you aspire to be succesful trader.

I try my best to instill in you and all subscribers that markets are not yes or now business.

If Heinzenbergs uncertainty principle was ever strong in any human activities the MARKETS AT IT.

Aside from quantum physics, this where I found the UNCERTAINLY PRNCIPLE to be the dominating factor.

We either live with it or without it.

That all we can do and if the latter is chosen it means leaving the markets, because they will never change.

We must

Good Trading Dear Michael

boris said...

Dear Miachael,
Please note the
response to your DotOrg
Question

Second one

Is in the feedback section

boris said...

emini 366
at
Market Report

boris said...

Will this
was hardly an a ction of
Genious.

Our methods indicated that we needed to test the market by going short at
1119 are,so we are short from 1118 and our stop is at the same place

Breakeven.

AGain this is not a work of genious, this is a simple trading by method that has excellent merrits

Good Trading All

boris said...

stop at 1114

boris said...

Took Profits 7.5 pts
at 1110.50

GOod Tradin All
Short again from XXXX

boris said...

Is there any subscriber
How is not receiving my regular emails from bulk emailer
?

Please respond

boris said...

short from 1111
stop 1110.75

boris said...

out +0.25

boris said...

emini
367
at
Market Report

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Good morning.
The market still likes your eurjpy outline:-)!
Thanks and good trading.

Bert

boris said...

Dear Bert,
Good Morning
Very Dear Friend.

Sorry, I am so busy figuring the trading and getting back late to this

ENjoy Dear Bert

boris said...

emini 368
at
Market Report

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Good morning.
Any chance of you please sending us subscribers a slightly longer eurjpy chart? I am not putting too much emphasis on one indicator, but, along with your daily commentary, it seems to be working wonders so far!
Thanks a lot.
Good trading, dear friend.

Bert

boris said...

5 min data
at

Market Report

boris said...

Dear Bert

Coming
UP

My very Dear Frined

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Very kind and generous.
Thanks.

Bert

boris said...

Dear Bert,
Please find the
EURJPY outline

at

Services->files

ENJOY very Dear Friend Bert

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Thank you.
That outline may help with what your last email indicated you are trying to do.
My apologies if that is a bit cryptic:-)
Good trading.

Bert

boris said...

No
Problem, Dear Bert,

I totally understand,
that different forms of presentations
are good in that they make it easier to comprehend the subject at hand.

ENJOY Very Dear Friend Bert and
everybody.

Good Trading ALl

boris said...

emini 369
at
Market Report

boris said...

5 min data
on
Market Report

john said...

Boris

Hello-- just checking in from chicago-- good trading

boris said...

Dearest
JOhn
GOod TO see you are
watching markets, even being away
from home.

Well, new home(:-

Be well My very Dear Friend