Monday, April 05, 2010

Market is getting there

128 comments:

xerxes said...

Good Morning Dear Boris

boris said...

Good Morning Dear Xerxes

Ivan said...

Hi All,
If the history is telling us something, we could have strong move up in EURUSD very soon (in the next 3-4 days). The precondition is that EUR do not drop here.
See my pictures:

http://www.antisopitalist.org/Data/Sites/1/userfiles/ivan/eurusd1.jpg

http://www.antisopitalist.org/Data/Sites/1/userfiles/ivan/eurusd2.jpg

Notice what happens when the green line crosses the yellow one. These lines represent some moving averages.

boris said...

going for swim

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Good morning.
I hope the water was nice!
Thanks and good trading.

Bert

xerxes said...

Nice charts Dear Ivan :-)

Ivan said...

Dear Xerxes, yes, but we don't live in history :)
We will see what the future brings...

boris said...

Dear Bert,
Good Morning and
Good Trading Very Dear Friend
Water in Mediterranean is Great
this time, nice and cool

boris said...

Dear Ivan,
Dear Xerxes
Thanks for the infotainment

john said...

Boris

Swimming is supposed to be the best exercise even better than jogging.

old john

boris said...

Dear John,
For me that is absolutely true
Reason is simple.
My sportsman's days with heavy lifting of weights competitively and other wise, My knees are not able to take the kind of pounding they did those days.

So, swimming and stretching are helping me to surmount that problem and do as much of a low impact( especially on the knees) exercises as I need to keep healthy.

Good Morning and Trading Dearest Friend John

boris said...

emini292
On DotOrg

boris said...

emini292
both
at
Mreport
and
Service->files

xerxes said...

B-berg says that the Northern and Southern Pesos are favored by hedge funds and large individual investors over the U.S. Peso, Dear Boris ... I wonder why they've decided to tell us now, today, as parity looms, Dear Boris :-)

xerxes said...

10 year hit 4% Dear Boris

boris said...

Well, Dear Xerxes
we had a pretty good record with BONDs

We advised to purchse them at 4% in 2009 then we said to get out of if around 3.54-3.61

So, That is nice capital appreciation on top of the 4%.

Besides in 2008 before , when nobody would dare,and yields from 2 to 3% we wrote in public that the bond 29 year rally was over.

Boy that was over. Current yield is 100% higher from the bottom!

Good Trading All

boris said...

detail coming up on
Market Report

boris said...

Stop Even +.50

boris said...

Break Even
Stop

boris said...

out +0

boris said...

Update
On
DotOrg

alexnewbee said...

Good morning Dear Boris and everybody.
IMHO market was there yesterday, at least ST. reason - considerable bonds sales this week and rising interest on TNX (which was not noted only by lazy). they have to bring down the TNX.

xerxes said...

Good Morning Dear Boris .....

Loonie poised to break parity today Dear Boris .... Even the mighty aussie can't overcome the northern peso juggernaut with AUDCAD declining despite RBA interest rate increases ...

xerxes said...

Registered Spanish unemployment surging by 35,000 placing UE rate near 20% at over 4.17 million .... They never tell you what the non-registered UE rate is Dear Boris or what the total UE rate is or what the U6 equivalent is .... Those numbers would be shocking Dear Boris ... Pass the sangria :-)

xerxes said...

H&S target is 70 pips south of here for EURUSD Dear Boris .... Loonie 8 pips from parity

boris said...

Dear Alex
Dear Xerxes
Thanks for infotainment.
I had few arrangements to attend this morning.
Now I am going for a swim and then should be able to attend the business fully.

Good Trading Dear Friends

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Good morning.
Thanks and good trading.

Bert

xerxes said...

Parity Dear Boris, Parity in the frozen north

boris said...

Dear Bert,
Good Morning and good Trading
My very Dear Friend

alexnewbee said...

as dear Evil Speculator pointed out, yesterdays reading in ISEE for equities was above 300. it is either ATH or close to it. makes me wonder...

xerxes said...

B-berg says all eyes on the Northern Peso Dear Boris as P-A-R-I-T-Y reached

xerxes said...

B-berg says price deflation taking hold in Spain, Ireland and Portugal ... I wonder what they're buying Dear Boris :-)
I guess "inflation expectations" are under control :-)

boris said...

Update
At
MarketReport

xerxes said...

Allen Sinai says that there is 'no doubt' that bonds are in a bear market, Dear Boris .... Rising interest rates support buckeroos, or so they say Dear Boris :-)

Mike Truong said...

they're pushing commodities hard this morning. hmmm

xerxes said...

Common currency is twisting in the wind Dear Boris as it reaches for the H&S target ... The Greeks are coming to America with a roadshow, hat in hand, Dear Boris, looking for a kool 10 billion ... They want those king buckeroos, or so B-berg says

xerxes said...

Well Dear Mike, B-berg said that President Barak Obama is getting concerned with rising crude prices so he is sending Larry Summers to give a speech somewhere .... A tough response :-)

xerxes said...

B-berg says the world is awash in oil Dear Boris; oil inventories are the highest they've been in at least 10 years they tell us; B-berg is blaming s-p-c-u-l-t-o-r-s ... Imagine that

Mike Truong said...

It's a bit disconcerting to see a rejection of financial based fiats for commodity based fiats. Market saying bubbles in commodities are ok going forward?

boris said...

Emini 293
on DotOrg
both
at

Market Report
and
Services->files
area

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

When you have time, I left a question on dotorg. Please take your time as this is a very low priority question.

Thank you dear friend,

Michael

xerxes said...

Paolo Pellegrini Trades for 2010:

Right Hand man of John Paulson
http://www.investingcontrarian.com/global/paolo-pellegrini-trades-for-2010-right-hand-man-of-john-paulson/

Although he is not the most well known of investment gurus Pellegrini has built quite a name for himself in recent years. Before founding his own hedge fund PSQR (a play on PP Squared) Pellegrini was John Paulson’s right hand man at Paulson and Co

Of course, Paulson and Co. made waves during the sub-prime crisis when they made billions shorting the market during the crisis. Pellegrini was instrumental in devising the strategy. Like Paulson, however, Pellegrini wasn’t a one trick, short the market, pony. In 2009 he crushed the market with a 61.6% return in his fund after he made big bets on a rising oil market and a tanking treasury market.

So where does Pellegrini see the market going now? In a recent letter to shareholders he said:

“the structural problems that precipitated the Great Recession around the globe remain unresolved”

Pellegrini’s favorite trades in 2010 are the following four:

* Short US fixed income
* Short US equities
* Short US dollar
* Long commodities

You know this guy Dear Boris :-)

boris said...

Dear Michael,
I responded to your
Question

Good Question
Good Trading Dear Friend

boris said...

Dear,
Xerxes, I do not.
But he may know me(:-

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

Tell me Dear Boris, if, as B-berg claims, that crude is plentiful, why am I paying 7 bucks a gallon, 3 bucks more than just a couple months ago :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Apparently, you did not yet hear
this rant from me.

Others have.
So, here:

OIL is a tax mechanism( not only in USA by the way).

So, when gov wants your money they apply a little tax called OIL and they have great cards to play. Iran( scare the war on them), Nigeria (scare the terror attack on Nigerian oil facilities). Iraq( explode a pipeline or two). Saudi Arabia( play the incredible pictures of Gawhar oil terminal attacks by terrorists) or blow the refinary.

YOu want me to go on.

So, maybe Dear Summers was send to blow some more things ha.

Ok, Dear Xerxes,
Do not ask me this question again.

Learn from the first time

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

I was being facetious Dear Boris; I wasn't expecting a serious answer :-)

boris said...

I know
So was I(:-

xerxes said...

[For Greece to] get out of this mess, one of five things will have to happen.

The first, and most optimistic, solution would be a significant fall in the euro’s exchange rate, say to parity with the US dollar, coupled with a strong recovery in the eurozone.

{Geez, Dear Boris, all this PARITY talk today :-) }

This might just do the trick to sustain Greek growth as it adjusts.

The second is that Greece gets access to low interest rate loans from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.

The third would be a private sector debt restructuring to prevent a Fisher-style debt-deflation dynamic.

The fourth is that Greece leaves the eurozone.

The fifth is default.

If you go through the options one by one, you realize that the first is improbable.

The EU has in effect ruled out the second.

The third would require an unlikely additional bail-out of the European banks.

While option four would be most convenient for the Germans, the Greeks are not so stupid as to leave the eurozone.

That leaves them with option five: to default inside the eurozone. It is the only option that is consistent with what we know.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/372886dc-400d-11df-8d23-00144feabdc0.html

boris said...

update at dot org

xerxes said...

Spain and Portugal have problems of a different kind but of a similar dimension. Spain will have to go through a disinflation/deflation period that will produce a formidable private sector debt-deflation spiral. Without devaluation, or the possibility of a sustained fiscal boost, the Spanish depression could last forever, or at least for as long as the country stays in the monetary union. Portugal, like Greece, suffers from a combined public and private sector debt problem.

Forever is a long time Dear Boris :-)

xerxes said...

Rumors That US-Targetted Greek Bond Issuance Scrapped, As Americans Have Purported "Short Party" In Greek Bonds

They didn't invite me to the party Dear Boris, You? :-)

While the 10s30s inversion is not too surprising as at this point nobody expects Greece to be solvent for 30 years, what is more amusing is the inversion of the 6 Month - 1 Year points. Furthermore, the surge between 3 and 6 months over almost 300 bps indicates that the market is pretty much convinced D-Day for Greece will occur, as we expected, sometime between July and September. Which is two months before the Mid-Terms.... And is two months before the deadline that the Israeli Deputy Secretary of Defense said Israel will likely have to attack Iran by. Second half of 2010 should be significantly more volatile than the past 12 months.

Klaatu said...

Arch Crawford, the financial astrolger, has the period July 27-30th, 2010, as the most disturbing planetary alignmnent he's ever seen. One that exceeds that of the apocalyptic period of Dec. 2012. He predicts: " Major changes on the earth, that could change the face of civilzation."

boris said...

Well,
Thanks Dear Klaatu
July 20 is
Tisha B'Av( which in Hebrew means 9 th of the month AV- Lonar calendar).

Now, this day is the worst day in Jewish and world history.

Both of Jewish Temples were destroyed in Tisha B AV. I believe the worst Pogroms in EUROPE have come on those dates and I am not sure exactly , but the Hitler's war started on That day.

This a dreaded period in Jewish and World Period. Not every Year bad things happen, but when they do, the most terrible things happen

Good Trading Dear Klaatu

boris said...

As a note to above post.
Please understand that the way the lunar calendar works, the Tisha B'Av does not come on the same Solar Calendar day or even on the same month!?

So, you cannot expect to know that 20th July will have same significance next year.

Good Trading

boris said...

Well,
Looks like,
We made an obligatory trip
to HDAP2-3 area and are turning back

So, far so good.

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear John
has send us this interesting link

Derivative Promotion

Good Trading Very Dear Friend John

xerxes said...

Good morning Dear Boris ....

xerxes said...

Also from zerohedge Dear Boris this piece on Greece ... So what happens to EURUSD if Greece cracks Dear Boris? Will we be looking at 4th annual low AP? :-)

Greek website bankingnews.gr reports that today's breach of 400 bps in spread to bunds on the 10 Year GGB is a very critical level, and that if spread widening continues, Greece "risks completely losing control" of its funding situation. The critical level in the 10 Year GGB spread to bunds beyond which all hell will break loose is 450 bps at which point "everyone will unload bonds and then control will be completely lost." (pardon our translation) Odd - no mention of CDS speculators having blown up Greece today: instead it is bond selling... How novel. The site also notes that while today's actions "should be a reasonable response and should reduce the spread, if that does not happen then Greece will completely lose control and very soon." This is likely the worst mistake that Greece could have done. By giving bond holders a bogey the target spread will become a self-fulfilling prophecy and will likely be breached in a matter of days. In addition, bankingnews.gr reports that 450 is a "milestone in the bond market as it represents a level beyond which the state will not be able to borrow."

xerxes said...

BTW Dear Boris, Brazil, in the past, has issued many bonds with double digit coupons and spreads to UST's and look at them now, everybody's darling; so I don't know what all these Cassandra-like warnings are about ... They should just lighten-up and take a vacation in Spain ... Pass the sangria :-)

Ivan said...

Hi All,
My guess: EURUSD up today (at least ST) but IT trend is not finished.

xerxes said...

Spirit Airlines will be charging up to $45 for flyers to carry on their own bags. One free small bag such as a purse, camera bag or lap-top and then charges will apply.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/travel/detail?entry_id=60691

Soon we'll need tokens to use the lavatory on the plane Dear Boris

xerxes said...

(Reuters) - The United States should consider raising taxes to help bring deficits under control and may need to consider a European-style value-added tax, White House adviser Paul Volcker said on Tuesday .....

Should consider? I thought it was a done deal Dear Boris

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Good morning.
Thanks, as always, for all of your great work.
Good trading.

Bert

boris said...

Dear Bert,
Thanks and
Good morning and Trading
My very Dear Friend

xerxes said...

Freefall Dear Boris

boris said...

Now, my stop is at Even.
I now treat my position as short term

xerxes said...

UUP approaching first Dear Boris

john said...

Boris

good morning and I should now say good swimming

old john

boris said...

Feedback Section
Has Educational Comments
Good Trading

boris said...

Emini294
both Places

boris said...

out +0 since early morning open

boris said...

Market maybe scheduling itself for
a::::

See Market Report

boris said...

Back into position from about same price
Update on DotOrg

boris said...

Stops Break Even

boris said...

Now Stops at BEven

boris said...

I do not know why
Cannot seem to place comments

boris said...

This has never happened before
My comments are delayed

xerxes said...

Dear Boris .... Armstrong's last note from sing sing suggests that we have until 2016 to sell buckeroos; at that time it should reach its intrinsic value with interest rates, shares and relics all rising together into the collapse ...

boris said...

It is 10:58 and my comments just appeared , while the placement times are clearly visible there.

I cannot belive this.

I cannot!

boris said...

out +0

Mike Truong said...

Silver saying rally not done yet.

Klaatu said...

Dear Boris,
Rumors that there is little gold
in the only bullion bank in Canada.
I think it's where Central Fund of
Canada (CEF)is supposed to store their gold/silver.Check out ZeroHedge for story..
Good trading,
Klaatu

Klaatu said...

Gold, T-bonds, Yen all up nicely.

boris said...

I guess, 9 pt decline on EMini
about 1% is all we are going to get this time.
Well, we said under 1.5%(:-

boris said...

Dear Michael
Thanks Very Dear Friend

boris said...

Dear Klaatu,
Thanks for Infotainment

Good Trading Very Dear Friend

boris said...

Well,
Gold and Silver
We thought they were buy around March 25 and they were. What else.

Then we thought there maybe a correction around 31 st with a cycle top, but GOLD blew, methodically through it. Remember, it is not that you know where cycle tops or bottoms are, but it is how market responds them and gold's response was simple. What top?

So, it ignored it for about 2-3 days without much either upside or downside move.

NOw, that kind of an action is nothing but a clear signal that it was not ready to go down , if at all. If anybody bought at the bottom of 25 March, and kept comfortable 15 dollar stop, now that person is sitting pretty.

Again remember, it is important for one to have an idea about what will happen( we always do) and then it is even more important to sew what market does with that.

This process of "TO SEE" is the most difficult part even for those that are in the "KNOW".

If you cannot see cheaply and expensively, I care not how much you know about the markets.

YOu need to be able to check the market out! ( test it so to speak).


So, we just spelled out the how we really operate.

1) we always have an opinion about what may happen to the market.
2) We never consider that to be as important as the action of testing the market and that requires a real trader!!!

Now, our asset program is long and re commending gold FOREVER( as long as we are on line) so, we are not going to touch that AT ALL(:-

ENJOY. the EDUTAINMent

xerxes said...

What happens to EURUSD Dear Boris if Greece goes Kabluey:

And so the Greek funding crisis shifts to a liquidity crisis yet again. Bankingnews.gr reports that Commerzbank, among many others, is now pulling its repos with Greek banks, essentially killing liquidity in the entire financial system.....The Greek website is reporting that according to sources, Commerzbank which is one of the biggest repo counterparties to Greek institutions, was dumping bonds in yesterday's sell off. Not only that, but it is now pulling repos, in essence starting a cascade of asset liquidation, in which banks, already experiencing a depositor run, will be forced to sell assets at any prices they can get just to fund their operations for one extra day.

A Google Translated version of the Bankingnews piece:

According to information Commerzbank was concerned about the Greek bonds accepted as guarantees of Greek bonds. Commerzbank has provided some liquidity to Greek banks are more concerned about the Greek bonds. Based on a reliable source in the recent past, foreign banks have applied to withdraw repo with Greek banks even offer powerful bonus.

The piece concludes:

Foreigners do not want to have in their portfolios Greek bonds. It is now clear.

boris said...

What I meant about "not touch" is really that we are not going to touch the issue of the asset allocation into gold, because we have said so much and so many times about it that we are TIRED.

Even In public, I have been asking people to have core gold of 5-10% minimum FOR AS LONG AS WE AR ONLINE

That is what I meant

Mike Truong said...

Boris,

I think your original time line will be in play instead of the revised time line.

Good trading dear friend,

Michael

john said...

Mike

You beat me to it. Was just going to post that.

old john

boris said...

Dear John, Dear Michael
Thanks Very Dear Friends

boris said...

All I can say
Today was

C L A S S I C
(:-

Amazing hits

xerxes said...

Good Morning Dear Boris

xerxes said...

The buck is well bid this morning Dear Boris ... B-berg states that Greek woes are the source ... Pass the ouzo Dear Boris :-)

boris said...

We have NIKKEY index featured
in our Market Report today
Please note the similarity of percentage to move to AHAP1 between SPX and NIKKEY

That would be a great confluence if/when it plays out

Good Trading

boris said...

Good Morning Dear Xerxes
Good Trading Very Dear Friend

xerxes said...

GGB vs Bunds ... 405 bp spread

Jim Rogers says he owns euros even though it could 'disappear' ....

That's staying power Dear Boris :-)

boris said...

Yes, Dear Xerxes
I have explained how he operates.
His time horizon( afforded by money, you called it staying power) are much longer than couple days.(:-

Good Trading All

Ivan said...

Hi All,
I think, EURUSD FALAP1 (or new low) is almost guaranteed in the next days.

xerxes said...

7.152% is what you get today for holding 10 year GGB's Dear Boris .... Anything under 12% is no biggie Dear Boris :-)

xerxes said...

Greek banks under pressure as wealthy depositors export funds ... Can you spell bank run?

boris said...

Bond,
Currency
Gold

Updates on
Market Report

xerxes said...

Dear Ivan .... I think the 2nd is more critical as that could trigger liquidation of EURUSD longs

Ivan said...

Dear Boris/Xerxes,
what is so sexy in this red line at this GBPUSD graph:
http://www.antisopitalist.org/Data/Sites/1/userfiles/ivan/gbpusd1.jpg

???

xerxes said...

The Cup & Handle or inverted H&S on the USDX is lookin' good Dear Boris, suggesting a move up to the January 2009 level; SPX broke south from a rising wedge yesterday, targeting 1165 ...

GGB spread now 7.317%

xerxes said...

Nice chart Dear Ivan .... There are fibos and other TA tools pointing at the same location .... All this, along with the AP's supports a 'test' here .... Thank you for pointing it out as I was concentrating on the usual EURUSD

xerxes said...

Consumer credit declined 11.5 billion USD in February, courtesy of Federal Reserve ....

CDS's on Greece hit record high today ...

xerxes said...

10 year GGB-Bund spread is 4.3%, highest since 1999 ....

Greek banks asking for 17 billion Dear Boris to counter the capital flight ...

Again they played the piece where Jimmy says the euro, down the road will disappear ....

Greek 3 year yields spiking as well according to B-berg

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Good morning.
Thanks for the great updates.
Good trading.

Bert

xerxes said...

well, Dear Boris, Jimmy telling us that the euro will disappear has been good for a 30 pip pop So far ...

Ivan said...

Hi Boris,
when will GBP stop to advance against CHF and EUR?
Thanks

boris said...

GBP has stopped to advance few weeks ago
this is just a correction in that trend

Dear Ivan, Thanks

boris said...

Dear Bert,
Good Morning
and GOod Trading
My Very Dear Friend

boris said...

Correction about GOLD
in Market Report

boris said...

Emini295
at both
MReport
and
Files
areas

john said...

Boris

thanks

old john

boris said...

Dear John,
Welcome

GOod Trading Very Dear Friend

boris said...

After initial detour market has come to execute the DARK PATH

Incredibly precisely so far!

boris said...

Market on schedule to
...
see
Market report

boris said...

Another Perfect Path
COMPLETE(:-

xerxes said...

Good Morning Dear Boris

xerxes said...

B-berg starts the morning with an interview of James Galbraith and he tells us that his biggest fear for 2010 is a full-blown meltdown of the European Union Dear Boris ....

xerxes said...

UBS says that the IMF is going in over the weekend Dear Boris ... Tricky said Greece won't default and neither will Italy .....

boris said...

boris said...
Market on schedule to
...
see
Market report

4/08/2010 2:23 PM


boris said...
Another Perfect Path
COMPLETE(:-

4/08/2010 3:52 PM


xerxes said...
Good Morning Dear Boris

4/09/2010 1:50 AM


xerxes said...
B-berg starts the morning with an interview of James Galbraith and he tells us that his biggest fear for 2010 is a full-blown meltdown of the European Union Dear Boris ....

4/09/2010 1:57 AM

boris said...

New Post
Good Morning Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

7.387% now for the GGB ... surging Dear Boris but the euro doesn't care at the moment