Sunday, March 28, 2010

This Graph Never Lies

128 comments:

john said...

Boris

thanks

old john

boris said...

Dear John

Welcome
Very Dear Friend
Good Trading

xerxes said...

Good Morning Dear Boris ...

B-berg is telling us that fears about the euro are receding as Greece is no longer an issue ... time to get risky Dear Boris :-)

boris said...

Good Morning Dear Xerxes
Maybe(:-

Klaatu said...

Dear Boris,
A belated happy Birthday wish to you my friend.

And from George Carlin, these pearls of wisdom:
"REMEMBER, LIFE IS NOT MEASURED BY THE NUMBER OF BREATHS WE TAKE, BUT BY THE MOMENTS THAT TAKE OUR BREATH AWAY."

Continued good health and prosperity to you and your family.
Klaatu

boris said...

Dear John
sends us this important info regarding large draw-down in SPX short positions at CME. Capitulation of sorts

Capitulation

Good Trading Very Dear Friend John

boris said...

Dear Klaatu,
Said , Very Well.
Well said... Indeed.

Yes, let us keep getting those moments Dear friends.

Good Trading Very Dear friend Klaatu

xerxes said...

My comment was meant to be facetious Dear Boris :-)

The recession graph you posted has been posted by you in the past; it's fantastic work, congratulations once again :-)

xerxes said...

Greece to sell 5 billion in bonds this week Dear Boris ... Will the market pass over the offer Dear Boris :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Thanks Dear Friend
Yes, it is amazing, how a simple indicator constructed by a simple man, boris(:-, can tell so much.

Good Trading Very Dear Friend Xerxes

boris said...

The Year Of Terror.
POSSIBLE

Red Alert: Two Explosions Hit Moscow Metro

March 29, 2010

There have been two explosions on Moscow metro systems March 29. The first explosion hit the second carriage of a metro train stopped at Lubyanka station and the second at Park Kultury station. Ten people were initially reported injured in the first blast with an unknown number injured in the second blast. With two blasts approximately 40 minutes apart in Moscow subway stations it is most likely it was coordinated terrorist attacks in Russia’s capital.

According to STRATFOR sources in Moscow, the two locations of the attacks on the subway in the city are symbolic. The first attack in Park Kultury is symbolic in that it is one of the city’s cultural centers being located near Gorky Park. The second location of the attack at the metro station of Lubyanka is nearly under the Federal Security Bureau’s headquarters—former KGB headquarters—the security hub of Russia. According to media reports, the attacks were caused by suicide bombers at the peak of rush hour in Moscow. Thus far, rumors are flying that Muslim extremists are responsible for the attack. In the past, there have typically been spring-summer attacks in Moscow in February, and spring is just now arriving in the capital. STRATFOR will be closely watching the situation for more details.

xerxes said...

B-berg says that next target for EURUSD is 1.40 Dear Boris ... The bottom is in :-)

xerxes said...

How you drinkin' your coffee this morning, Dear Boris, with that USD toast you ordered :-)

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Good morning.
You're not getting older, you're just keeping up the great work!
Thanks a lot.
Good trading to you, dear friend.

Bert

boris said...

Dear Bert,
Thank you Dear friend
Yes, I must agree with you
In some places I am not getting older and in others I am(:-

Thank god, some things improve with age!(:-
As long as I am honest with what I can do and never stop searching for better way, I am certainly, not getting older. Just getting meaner in my search for truth

Good Trading Dearest Friend

boris said...

Dear Xerxes
My wife tells me , this is my last toast before PASSOVER ends (next 8 days)(:-

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

Cute Dear Boris :-) But you know this Passover starting on Monday is a bit inconvenient for working :-)

boris said...

FED UP YET.
This picture is worth 100 Trillion Dollars. That is about how much money is owed and none of it goes to your benefit

FED UP YET

Ah! I told you that will be the case, long time ago. Thank God Somebody bothered to put it in graph.

Good Trading All

boris said...

And then we have politicians of all stripes all along and tell us how hard are they working for US(:-

Laugh all you want. i want to cry(:_

I would rather not be correct than have to see this.

This is a decomposition of the body once mighty USA. This is decomposition of the fabric of our beloved country Dear Folks.

I guess it is true , at passover time the first born dies.

USA must have been the first born.

One of a kind country, which was attracting the best and bravest of the world.

I doubt this is the case anymore.

All we attract and cultivate is thieves
Good Trading All

xerxes said...

Well Dear Boris, a buckeroo will always buy something stateside ...
Did you see the piece on Zerohedge about the capital controls put in place inside the HIRE Act that the big O signed recently

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/HIRE%20act.pdf

Next up: Travel restrictions

boris said...

DotOrg
seems to be unavailable
I will be sending Emini288 via email
Good Trading All

john said...

Boris

thanks

old john

boris said...

Thank God
Email seems to be available through the same host.

(:-

Not everything dies at once.

Good Trading alljavascript:void(0)
Let me know if you did not receive email

boris said...

Dearest Friend
John
Enjoy

xerxes said...

B-berg says it isn't too late to short China Dear Boris

boris said...

I do not like this market
for short term traders
There seems to be no volume
more so than other days the PASSOVER slowness is adding to
a dull market.

Any short(est) term trading should be done with caution.

Good Trading Dear Subscribers

boris said...

OIL is driving market higher today,
unlike session before then.
XLE(energy) + 2%
XLB(Maerials)+1%
Change of leadership here

alexnewbee said...

dear Boris. thank you very much for this picture. it is really worth 100 trl. dollars.
תודה רבה

boris said...

Welcome
Dear Friend Alex
People ought to know

I am just doing my job.
Without too much BS
Just facts.

Thanks and Thank you Dear friend
תודה רבה - Meaning Thank You Very Much in Hebrew

dimitry said...

Sorry for being late , Dear Boris - Happy birthday and happy Passover to you and your family !! Better late ,than never. Reminds me of historic anecdote ; officers of one of the regiments of Russian Imperial Army forgot to send greetings for Emperors birthday. So, they send next telegram- (Your Majesty! third day drinking for Your Health.!! The answer followed- May be it is time to stop.

boris said...

Dear Dmitry.
Thanks
Hahaha!

Drinking is a Russian
Profession.
Maybe not locally invented
but certainly locally

Perfected!

Good Trading And thanks Dear Friend
Dmitry

xerxes said...

B-berg says that there was 6 billion in bids for the 5 billion in 7 year bonds tendered by Greece yesterday and the yield was 6.001% .... Today, prices are falling/yields rising with a large bid/ask spread ... opah

alexnewbee said...

I would not buy greek shit even at 10%...

boris said...

Well,
In many cases
the governments have
what is called
a
Captive audience for their bonds
no matter how bad the rating, there is always a buying from local pension funds, insurance companies etc. As they must match the liabilities with income stream.

Good Trading all

xerxes said...

Well, Dear Alex, you're not the only one with that exact same sentiment about Greek scat :-)

xerxes said...

B-berg says that NASA is going to look into the acceleration problem for Toyota; they suggest that these kind of electronics problem are right up their alley .... Seems like the federal employees got waaaaaaay too much spare time Dear Boris :-)

boris said...

Alternatively
Federal
Gov
Got to much
of our money
that it does not know
what to do with

(:- Dear Xerxes

john said...

Big hearings to jam up Toyota so Government Motors looks good. Took Days with some probing questions


Big Ben appears and they ask him softball questions. He appears and is gone in an hour.

and the beat goes on.

boris said...

Dear John
Indeed
the Beat goes on

BS after BS
while our money is stolen and gone in the back hole of their friends

We owe 2 hundred thousand dollars a person( million for family of 5) and even that is not enough for these people at the top to understand the the debt is not prosperity creation

Indeed
The beat goes on

If debt was a way to prosper
why do not borrow Quadrillion Dollars(:-, just asking do not expect answers

Indeed
The beat goes on

and the beat goes on!(:-?

GOod Trading all

boris said...

It took about 45 minutes
for the market to do the round-trip between our points(:-

john said...

yup

xerxes said...

Stock market closed on Friday but apparently banks are open and the BLS will release the usual employment stats .....

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Thanks for the update
Good Trading
Very Dear Friend

xerxes said...

Good Morning Dear Boris ....
Thank you for the reminder on dotorg ... I could use one every morning :-)

xerxes said...

The head of debt management for Greece, when asked about future issuance of USD or JPY globals mentioned that they plan a USD Global Dear Boris .... Maybe he figures the Ben/Barak duo will take care of the principle value for him :-)

alexnewbee said...

well, reg. Greece from ZH "Earlier today Greece tried to do a quick drive by with a €1 billion in a reopening of a 12 Year auction. Instead, it barely managed to get €390 million off:"

xerxes said...

Commerzbank says the relic, in the near-term, will rise to 1145 Dear Boris ...

B-berg reminds us that crude is at its early January high

xerxes said...

Interesting piece Dear Alex .... I liked this part:

"The lack of demand for the remarkably stupid surprise auction, orchestrated by former GOLDMANITE Petros Christodoulou, achieved no incremental funding for Greece but merely spooked the entire curve, and forced buyers of yesterday's 7 Year auction to take immediate losses, as the bond traded down from 6% to 6.27% (not to mention a move wider in CDS). This is the third sequential auction in which primary buyers have taken post break losses.

So I wonder if this Goldman is setting the Greeks (and by extension, the other PIGS) up for a big fall .....

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Good morning.
Thanks a lot.
Good trading.

Bert

xerxes said...

PIMCO says corporate bond rally is over ...

boris said...

Dear Bert
Very good Morning
and Good Trading
To you Very Dear Friend

xerxes said...

ADP disappoints Dear Boris; euro rallying along with jpy against the forlorn buck on the news

xerxes said...

Do we have a new paradigm now Dear Boris where the buck sinks along with equities

boris said...

emini290 on DOTORG
Files area
Good Trading

boris said...

Also EMINI
at
Market Report

xerxes said...

Looks like it's all over but the cryin' Dear Boris :-)

boris said...

We have again, made a prescribed route, up to the area bottom, down to ILAP5 and up to area bottom.

All , with almost a great precision

Good Trading All

boris said...

Writeup about cycles
At
Market Report

boris said...

Dear Xerxes wrote this to me today

You said the other day, emphatically so, that the USD rally is over by April first .....
Sometimes it seemed like you waffled a bit but it sure looks like the April fool's
line in the sand is it .... Congrats again :-)

It is not easy to make those calls.
People listen and take positions and I have to punish myself , if I cause undue losses(that is the way I am, care a lot).
Thanks for remembering.

Absolute statements are TROUBLE in our business, but I repeatedly said that March April should mark the top in Dollar. There is still time for markets to prove me wrong

(:-

Good Trading Dear Xerxes
I do not Waffle, I do allow that I am wrong. Arrogance and/or confidence has its limits(:-

I am still not 100% sure, but after hitting the 9pips from AHAP1=82.59 I could resist to make that statement, which I hope I will not regret!

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

boris said...

Now as I said above

I am still not 100% sure, but after hitting the 9pips from AHAP1=82.59 I could resist to make that statement, which I hope I will not regret!

If you are not a subscriber, you are a bit removed from the top, but subscribers could have gone short with a reasonable, now profitable stop.


In any case, if you act on this then I , as emphatically , suggest have a very small risk stop loss in!!!

Please! and see disclaimers
on the front page

Good Trading All

boris said...

Ok, so, what was It I really said on the day UDX hit 82.50?

Now, context first. We waited for that number a LONG time( almost 3 months).

And All I said, really, Quoting myself.

"we may look at today back and say, that was the day the USDollar Died"

Mow that is not arrogant. Neither is it super confident. It is for us a just matter statement. Why?

Because any of our subscribers may say that. They had all the same info I did. AHAP1 at 82.59 and target months February/April. Centered around March.

Sorry, this is not glorious. ANybody can see it the rear-view mirror. That is all we are going to do. Except that there was something we knew at the time of making that statement.

The facts I just listed. Our cycle date/month and our AHAP1.

Yes, we still don not know if that statement was correct and I am nor ready to accept any congrats.

I just do my work(:-

Good Trading

boris said...

Oh,
Ok,
AHAP1 - in English means

Annual High Attraction Point ( first)

xerxes said...

As fast as Ben prints 'em they're exchanging them for francs and euros Dear Boris ....

Klaatu said...

Dear Boris,
Any thoughts on the YEN turning here?
The Tankin survey comes out today at 19:30 EST and might show some strength.
Good trading,
Klaatu

boris said...

That is a million Dollar Question(:-
Dear Klaatu. Coming at the heels of the USDYEN being at the highs of Early January. One would be remiss if one does not think there is going to be some reaction to this Former High.

More of the answer at Market Report

Good Trading Dear Klaatu

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

I left a question on dotorg that I hope you will have time to answer. It is not urgent so please take your time. Thank you,

Michael

Klaatu said...

Many thanks, Boris,

Good trading,
Klaatu

boris said...

Dear Michael,
I shall respond tomorrow
Thanks for your question
Dear Friend Michael

xerxes said...

Good morning Dear Boris

boris said...

Good Morning Dear Xerxes
Good Trading Very Dear Friend

boris said...

Please note
the updates on DotOrg

xerxes said...

The Goldmen have put China on top of their recommendation list today Dear Boris ... They also like long GBPNZD

xerxes said...

90,000 (concensus expectation) + 140,000 (weather related from February) + 100,000 (census workers)
= 330,000+ Boom Dear Boris

B-berg

boris said...

Microsoft HOHM
Oh, Ok, you do not know what it stands for. I do not either, except it is related to HOME ENERGY(OBJECTS in geekys language) Management Sysem.

Actually at first I thought they have borrowed the Hebrew word HOHMA, which means smart, but you cannot accuse MICROSOFTIES of that , do you?


Microsoft and Ford announce a partnership ahead of the New York International Auto Show that will see upcoming Ford electric vehicles integrated with Microsoft's Hohm software, which monitors utility consumption in homes and makes recommendations on what users can do to save energy. Electric cars have the potential to become the most energy-intensive item in drivers' homes and to exert great pressure on the electrical grid. In order to make the process more efficient, Microsoft and Ford intend to use Hohm to provide information to customers and utilities on the steps they can take to make electric cars less of a resource drain.


Now, did you know that? If Government cannot get into your home MICROSOFTIES can!

Hallelujah

Also, did you imagine what happens when all drivers plug their cars in the electric grid at 6PM as they came back from work

HUH!!!!!!!!!!!

boris said...

So,
Would you like to buy Microsoft(ies) as a future utility company for you?

Well, who says information utility is less important than the Electric utility or water utility or SexCounter utility , or any other management needs you may have at home.

Who do you think is going to do all of that?

Not your brain damaged Electric utility(:- , they have a hard time pushing coal into the burner.

Water utility(:- ?

Kidding me.

So, HAIL new CHIEF, new UBER-UTILITY. MICRO SOFTIE

They, will need this business as nobody will buy computers any more as all the computing is going to be done in the CLOUDS

Ok , that is a subject for another day, I mean CLOUD computing.

I will just say as an introduction here that they let the clouds compute in this method instead of electrons( inside transistors).

Ok, for now
Micro-softies are afraid of clouds so, they are now joining it as UTILITY( UBER UTILITY ) company.

How smart is that for Microsoft.
Do you want ot buy some shares?

See disclaimers before you do that(:-

Good Trading All

boris said...

Ok, before we all go crazy about cloud computing.

Think of it this way.
You now have computer box, display, mouse and keyboard at home.

Imagine now, your computer was taken away from you. POOF! Gone. No computer, but you are still reading and saving the files and doing all the things you always did, but must make sure your internet is connected or you will be able to do none of these,
CAUSE YOUR COMPUTER WAS RELOCATED to some KGB or CIA headquarters and
you are told( to calm you , of course) that your computer is really in CLOUDS.

Not that is much easier to swallow than "SIR YOUR COMPUTER AND DISK AND ALL THAT GOOD STAFF IS AT CIA+KGB HEAQUARTERS"

Now you see, why they called the CLOUD COMPUTING.

It is the same way they called the DOLLAR , well DOLLAR.
Because , you would never agree if they told you .

"SIR DOLLAR IS A CONFISCATION TOOL"

Now you would have never saved, deposited or held such thing would you.

Well, same way with CLOUD COMPUTING. CLOUDS are only in our heads.

All the info is and processing power is in the hands of KGB+CIA and can be turned off at any moment.

LIGHTS OUT, WITH CLOUD COMPUTING.

(:------------

GOod Trading

boris said...

Well,
all i can say is
I now, perfectly understand why
Microsofties are afraid of clouds.

As windows(operating system) is taken away( with the computer) and ,most likely is NOT running windows any more( but LINUX or some variant of UNIX), Microsoft better become KGB+CIA or Bill Gates has nothing left to do! But Charity, of course.

Hallelujah!

boris said...

Ok,
From CLOUDS to Dollalr
You know the connection right( read above)(:-

Dollar rally of late and what is left ( or right ) of it, was an illusion. Worst than CLOUD computing.

Why you ask. Because brunt of came with the MANAGED(HUH!!!) appreciation against EURO(54% or ANtidollar currency basket). You see now, why they had to create dark CLOUDS above GREECE to cause ( make believe ) you to trust the Dollar and Bonds( courtesy Dear Big Ben Bernanke, referred to as BBB).

Ok, so one CLOUD after the another our ELITE is jumping us among them to keep us guessing which CLOUD is coming up next.

Great Job, Modern they enslavers!

GOod Trading All

boris said...

Emini291
at

Both
MarketReport
and
files Area

Mike Truong said...

thanks for the response Boris. I have my mental stops in place. Also look at SRS. I have a small lotto play on with some july 6 calls.

Good trading friend,

Michael

boris said...

Dear Michael
Enjoy
My Very Dear Friend

boris said...

Another,
Almost
Perfect route executed
to our DHAP3 and down heading to Area top?

Good Trading

Hopper said...

Hi Boris,

The market must be playing an April Fools Day Joke on us today.

Good Trading Dear Boris

Hopper said...

Hi Boris,

The market must be playing an April Fools Day Joke on us today.

Good Trading Dear Boris

boris said...

Dear Hopper,
We are not so stupid to let the market play April Fools Day(:-

According to our plan the most likely path today was to go upto 1176 and come back to 1171 and we have done that almost perfectly , just add 1 point to both.

(:-

No fools here just stupid people who love trading(:

xerxes said...

Dear Boooorrrrriiiiisssssss!!!!!!! FFFFFFRRRRRRRAAAAAANNNNNNNCCCCCCSSSSSS!!!

boris said...

Well,
Dear Hopper,
I will tell you why we are sutpid
all of us on the earth.
Everybody who believes in FIAT money are stupid.

And what choice do we have.
We are put in play even if we do not want.

Once the FIAT money is given to us then it is impossible to do anything but trade. Because Elite always manipulates things to its advantage.

So, there, we are not stupid that we realize we have to do something but we are stupid for accepting the conditions we are in

That is living under FIAT money standard

My younger daughter was asked once, why do we have to trade and her answer was very simple.

Even if one things he/she is not trading/investing , he/she is doing so.

Just the fact that we got cash makes us trades.

After all we decided to keep it in US dollar and got hit. Or we kept it in house and got hit and we kept in gold and go hit in 90s and we kept it in EURO and got hit recently.

There is no safe place once you are put in play.

And let me tell you.

WE ARE ALL IN PLAY, Regardless of how much we may hate it.

That is a stupid part of trading/investing.


Good Trading Dear Hopper

boris said...

That is fine Dear Xerxes
Nothing goes up one way all the time

It is clear everybody is trying to hide in SWISSY and sometimes
SWISSY GOVERNMENT will interfere to cool things down

That is all

xerxes said...

Dear Boris .... If they don't keep punching the intervention won't last more than a couple hours .... But the buck would have been in Davey Jones' Locker by the end of the session had they not put in a bid

boris said...

I hope you are all watching
the Bloomberg, going all out
with IPAD BS
From Apple.
Venture funds Of Perkin BSers
It is incredible, it is like 2000 again. They want , trying to recreate the tech Bubble again.

Good going Dear Friends

Couple people get into garage and reprogram a bit differently software that identifies where you are and delivers ads from PIZA and company.

WOW!

What a BS

THis is the most ridiculous thing I heard since I was involved in HIGH tech high scam( I did not know then , of course(:- ).

Well, you cannot change the world.

Dear GreenShade did it( create tech boom) trust Big Ben to create one of his own.

Good Luck Dear BSers from Bloomberg and Silly CON valley(:-

It is breath taking to watch all the BS that goes on about IPAD, as if it is the best thing from the days of Wheel Invention.

Nothing ever changes
Nothing

And the beat goes on As Dear John said!

boris said...

Ok, we are just informed
that there is a shortage if IPADS
not everybody got it you know
So, go spend a night at the
"GOD CHOSEN" store that has it

And see the pictures of yourself at Bloomberg. These guys became worst than CNBC ever was. They are modern day Cheer leaders for GEEKS

(:-

This is instructive, observe the hysteria the are trying to create about nothing called IPAd.

WOW! you can touch the screen
Did you see that.

Apple Touch.

In F Credible

boris said...

Well,
Greece is out of news
So, what it is time for
Apple and IPAD again.

I hope you are watching and learning
how the elite dupes the world.

You cannot live without IPOD
and then without Iphone
and then without IPAD, which is just grown up IPHONE

IN F Credible!

Watch Dear Friend and Learn how BSers from the elite operate
how the corrupt(inapt ) media supports them.

How Fed prints the money to make it all happen.

If you are not learning from this. You wall fall for IT(:- again

alexnewbee said...

dear Boris, I never realised that хохма - Hohma is a Hebrew word. Always thought it was Russian )).
thanks for some new knowledge.

boris said...

Welcome Dear Alex

john said...

Boris

But they will be successful with the IPAD nonsense. When my wife bowls, I sometimes go to the bar for a couple of beers. The bartender probably earns 12 an hour-- he has a 400 IPHONE-- . I have a TMOBILE for 29 dollars and I add about 1000 minutes a year for a 100 dollars. So I pay about 8 or 9 dollars a month for a phone which I do not need very often.

Difference in mentality -- the live for the moment generation

old john

boris said...

Dear John,
YOu are right, there will be some success, no doubt. I just do not want anybody of our readers to get hurt, because, I do not think any of those
APP writer companies will , eventually, make any money.

How many companies are successful in WINDOWS application development business. Where is VISICALC now or NETSCAPE or anybody else. The most successful WINDOWS developer company today is ADOBE and who is next... well I do not know and I am/was in this field.

In any case, my point was to let our readers know that when IPOs will come and Bloombergers hail them as the best thing since slice of bread do not get duped. If ever get into any one of these, just sell as soon as you see good profits( if you are lucky).

I for one, do not think , they will be successful in recreating the tech mania.

IPAD is just an incremental product without much innovation, but nice styling and ONLY APPLE will, eventually benefit from it

And the beat goes on

Good Trading All

boris said...

Yes, and I was going to mention

If CLOUDS are our future then why cannot the IPAD BS run from Internet, these are pure internet devices anyway.

There are hundreds of Companies working on ANDROID based Iphone type of devices.

I am sure they prefer GOOGLE CLOUD instead of APPLE dominated IPAD based platform.

Well, this is something BLOOMBERG will have to play with at times when the CRISIS no more exists are ELITE tries to hide and instructs the Dear Michael(BLOOMBERG) to tone deaf people again

And the Beat goes on

john said...

Another Bus is always coming

And the beat goes on

Mike Truong said...

interesting development as oil is being pushed right now to begin the quarter on a high note. Get energy funds to show good results to get sheeples to commit to buying oil from Goldmanites..hehe

alexnewbee said...

I subscribed to alerts from the FED on MBS purchase. right now I received mail "New York Fed purchases $6 billion net ($6 billion gross) in agency mortgage-backed securities" can somebody pls explain how it could be? Was not MBS purchase finished by march 2010? thanks

john said...

Alex

It is easy-- they lie


old john

boris said...

Dear Alex,
I do not have an Idea
It looks like they may have retained the rights( as if somebody can take it away from them(:- ) to interfere on case by case bases

Good Trading Dear Alex

alexnewbee said...

John

when? that they stop buying by march? or that they bought 6 bln. worth of shit?

boris said...

I like Dear John's answer
!!!!!!!!!!!

alexnewbee said...

Dear Boris

and this case by case comes when the market dips from the high more then 0,5%? :-)))
thks.

john said...

Either way, they lied. I am sure if confronted they will come up with some legaleeze nonsense. I expect nothing else.

old john

Mike Truong said...

alex,

they are not lying but this is an artifact in that although they stopped buying MBS on March 31, they were still buying up to March 31 and those purchases have not been settled yet. Calculated Risk had several posts about this. In effect we will see these purchases still going through for the next couple weeks or so.

Good trading,

Michael

alexnewbee said...

Thank you Mike. The question I am interested in - when do the banks get this money? did they get them already up to 31 of march, or can we still expect this liquidity pouring into stocks "for the next couple weeks or so"? thank you.

alexnewbee said...

ok Mike, I found it on Calc. risk now, published at 26th of march: "Since the inception of the program in January 2009, the Fed has spent $1.244 trillion in the agency MBS market, or 99.5 percent of the allocated $1.25 trillion, which is scheduled to run out next Wednesday. With one week left in the program, there is now only $6.1 billion in funding remaining"
so looks like they just postponed the last purchase, may be for the last ramp in the futs. over the weekend.

Mike Truong said...

I really don't know but the last number quoted by CR suggested about 6 billions in hist post on March 26 so the number you have may indeed be the last batch. Supposedly it will take some time for the purchases to settled and be reflected in the FED BS.

Here is his quote about when the contract for purchase are settled on the FED BS.

"The Fed's balance sheet released today shows "only" $1.027 trillion in MBS. The difference is that the NY Fed announces the purchases when they contract to buy; the Federal Reserve places the MBS on the balance sheet when the contract settles. Most of the agency MBS market is "To-Be-Announced" trading, and many of the contracts will not settle for a couple of months."

Mike Truong said...

Have a good weekend Boris. Things are plodding along like you said it would...

boris said...

Dear Michael
Have a good Weekend too

Everybody so.

Thanks all subscribers, readers
For being here today

xerxes said...

Here's what Jimmy Roger's says you should do to get rich:

Take your money, put it in Treasury bills or a money-market fund. Just sit back, go to the beach, go to the movies, play checkers, do whatever you want to.

Then something will come along where you know it's right. Take all your money out of the money-market fund, put it in whatever it happens to be and stay with it for three or four or five or 10 years, whatever it is.

You'll know when to sell again, because you'll know more about it than anybody else. Take your money out, put it back in the money-market fund, and wait for the next thing to come along. When it does, you'll make a whole lot of money.

xerxes said...

Jimmy also said this Dear Boris:

If you're a trader, you're a loser.

That's what a Journal of Finance study found.

As the two Journal of Finance researchers said in their article, "Trading is hazardous to your wealth."

They studied over 66,465 online trading accounts for a period of six years, from 1991 through 1996. They found that the average trader's returns were about 6.5% less than the overall market. That's even worse than most mutual fund managers, who routinely do about 4.8% worse than the market.

xerxes said...

They should do a study of your subscribers Dear Boris ... The Journal of Finance would get, I suspect, a run for their money ... Thank you again Dear Boris :-)

xerxes said...

Advance Notice of a Meeting
under Expedited Procedures .....

It is anticipated that a closed meeting of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System at 11:30 a.m. on Monday, April 5, 2010, will be held under expedited procedures,
------
So how should we position Dear Boris ...
---------
Matters to be Considerd:
Review and determination by the Board of Governors of the advance and discount rates to be charged by Federal Reserve Banks.

It's Easter Monday on the Continent Dear Boris and the houses are closed ... Are they gonna jack'em up Dear Boris sending the buck to the moon, sandbagging the Europeans?

john said...

xerxes,

It all depends what positions THEIR trading desks have. Slick move though


old john

xerxes said...

Yes, Dear John ... I was just assuming that most must be long EURUSD as that is the direction of the trends these days, but of course, the big houses may know better :-)

john said...

Xerxes,
I agree, most must be long but the Biggest house knew .

old john

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
People get an impression that We are short term traders.

At least, most of us are not.
What we do is fine tune the short term trades in the direction of where the asset allocation would have taken us. What that means is that we(ought) trade with the big picture in mind and take advantage of short term corrections against expected long term direction.

Now, in that context, I really care not much if market goes up one day or down another or next week or two.

But If we can find a good move against our preferred direction of the asset then we will increase that asset in our basket.

Now, how is that different from what Dear Rogers says.

Well: here are the differences


1) What Jimmy Rogers calls one in a life time opportunities one has to wait for, is a only for him or people like him who know the markets. I had a very hard time convincing too many to invest and invest between 11/2008 and 4/2009 when it was the "once in a life opportunity", because people are so scared when they see that even. They want to run not invest. Is not it why this is called a "once in life opportunity". Nobody saw it before(:-. So, how does Mr. Jimmy expect average Joe to invest when his/her heart stopped working and the world looks like going to hell, I do not know. Well I do know and I do exactly that, but it took me a lot of trading and reading and repetition before I got used to being comfortable with those "once in a life opportunities" and FRANKLY SO DID HE. He traded a lot before he learned to differentiate those situations.
2) Another difference between him and other is that EVEN IF/WHEN average investor understand approach Jimmy recommends, that investor may fail, because he/she does not have the same staying power as he does. Example, Before Soros Sole Billion Dollars from BOE , he was 20% under water. Do you think average person will deal with situations where he/she is 20-40% under water? Good Luck Dear Xerxes. Knowing you, you cannot even stand 5%. Really, Many of Jimmy's market calls where off by as much as two years at a time. Nobody would have stuck with investments that long except few strong hands like him.


So, thank you for Advice Dear Jimmy. But we got work to do not to listen to BS.

Now, I have seen that study you refer to and it is correct.

I also know Jimmy and how he works

Therefore I can say, from my own experience that even as much as Know, I could not operate the way he does( and assume now, that I know something about that God Dam thing called "once in a life event" )


Thanks Dear Friend Xerxes

boris said...

I guess, I need to summarize the above

Recognition of the opportunities Jimmy refers to is a matter of trading and experiencing, not READING!

Even when one is endowed oneself with such capability it is still practically impossible to follow long term trades like him as the staying power of average investor is not there.

Jimmy would have told you the same
except the person who wrote that took the matters out of context

Ok
Good Trading All

boris said...

What we really try is to get a FUTURE investor to learn to contribute step by step towards the Big Picture, so that he/she do not undergo shocks that forces them to make huge difficult decisions all at once( once in a ten years). At the same time we are precise enough to shorten even that 2 year or so that big investor can withstand .

That is what we do.

We instill in a person a soul of a trader and body of an investor with the asset allocation approach and trading expertise.

xerxes said...

I'm not sure I could handle 5% without experiencing an acute coronary event Dear Boris :-)

xerxes said...

In March, the US government issued a massive amount of debt: $332.8 billion - the biggest amount ever since the all time record of $545 billion raised (most of it purchased by the Fed) during the apex of the financial crisis in October 2008. The US Treasury had $12.717 trillion in debt subject to limit at the end of March, compared to just $12.384 trillion in the beginning of the month.

xerxes said...

Bill Dudley of Goldman Sachs, wait, formerly Goldman Sachs, now just of the New York Fed, who implores Americans to be patriotic and stop saving. Dudley hints at the inevitable endgame:

"The fact that our foreign indebtedness is for the most part denominated in our own currency is a huge advantage in the event the dollar were to come under significant downward pressure."

Did we just get an early Christmas present yesterday from the SNB Dear Boris :-)

boris said...

Updates
On DotOrg

john said...

Boris

Got them, thanks. The vix notes were great


old john

boris said...

Dear John,
Thanks Very Dear Friend
Good Trading