Wednesday, October 07, 2009

Still In the War Zone


Market Shaped UP , but market is still in the war zone. Its faith unclear. War , usually has casualties

81 comments:

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Good morning.
Thanks and good trading.

Bert

boris said...

Dear Bert,
Very, Very good morning to you
My Dear Friend

Good Trading Dear Bert

boris said...

Emini Info oN Dot Net, In the Market Report Area
No graph yet,

boris said...

Possible scenarious outlined on DotNet "Market Report"
No Graph Today

boris said...

Message On DotNet "Market Report"

boris said...

This is called BS day
BS stands for BoolShit(:-

I kind had a feeling today maybe exactly of this nature, but there is still possibility sharper trend will appear.

Do not hold your breath(:-

Good Trading Dear Readers

John said...

Boris

thanks


old john

boris said...

Dear John,
Good Trading
My Very Dear Friend
Welcome and good trading

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Would you please share your current thoughts on U.S. 10 year notes when you have a chance?
Over on the DotNet, of course:-)
Thanks and good trading.

Bert

xerxes said...

BS for the SPX, perhaps, Dear Boris..
For excitement, just get a yen for life :-)

boris said...

Dear Bert,
Thanks for your timely question
Please see answer in the body of today's Market Report
Good Trading Dear Friend Bert

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Thanks a lot!
Good trading.

Bert

xerxes said...

Good morning Dear Boris....

xerxes said...

Looks like there was a big party during the Asia session Dear Boris, especially down under...

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Good Morning,
YOu know what comes after party,

RIGHT(:-

Good Trading Dear Xerxes,

boris said...

See the Update DotNet
"Market Report"
+
Files in the files area
Good Trading

xerxes said...

AUD AP's are MIA again Dear Boris...

xerxes said...

YOu know what comes after party,

RIGHT(:-


I need constant reminders Dear Boris :-)

xerxes said...

The aussies said that their unemployment rate declined last night....Participation rate improved...Aussie commentators claim that the land down under never really had a recession....They're jacking interest rates....What's not to like Dear Boris.....

boris said...

When, you are on the top of the mountain!

GOod Trading Dear Xerxes
But remember, all in good time.
Let everybody be clear, our
SEEFUTURE
document said
UNEQUIVACALLy
Last year
that COme October 2009 The Gold will be KING, just about in any currency.

We told our subscribers at the break of Septemeber, BUY Gold In any currency ( that would have been fantastically profitable, with a bit less profits in AUSSIE purchase(:- ).

Please do not go and buy GOLD now.
I am just telling you what our subscribers knew months/years ago.

Good Trading all

xerxes said...

When will these false dawns translate into parity Dear Boris :-)

Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of England policy makers will consider expanding their bond purchase plan when they review its progress in November on concern the economy’s recovery may be a “false dawn,” former Deputy Governor John Gieve said.

boris said...

Not this year Dear Xerxes,
And not next,

We shall talk 3 years down for another look
Good Trading Dear Xerxes

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Good morning.
Thanks again for your update on the ten year.
Good trading, dear friend.

Bert

xerxes said...

Bummer...Will have to wait to get some digs on St. James Place :-)

xerxes said...

buck got smacked by the yen just now dear boris...

xerxes said...

The Bank of England....Thursday... held off from any further moves to expand the money supply _ for now.

No more rocket fuel for the FTSE...

boris said...

Dear Bert,
Welcome
Very, Very Dear Friend
Any time.
I shall do what I can.

Good Trading Dearest Friend

gorli said...

good morning, boris. the "out.tar" files on tje.net site, how do you read them?
thanks,
gorli

xerxes said...

what's with the out.tar dear boris

boris said...

emini182 on dot net

xerxes said...

Aussie Trades At Fresh 14-month High Of 1.6297 Against Euro And 0.9074 Against Greenback

P - A - R - I - T - Y

whats that spell ... can't hear you ... louder ... whats that spell :-)

Mike Truong said...

dear boris,

trying to pick top in gbp has been a bloody experience today...

good trading dear friend,

mike

xerxes said...

SPX hit 4th daily Dear Boris ...
This is an antidollar bacchanalia

boom boom kaboom :-)

boris said...

Dear Micahel,
Picking tops and bottoms is the hardest thing to do. That is known to all.

I certainly did not think that it was worth , yet fighting the market. Our timing calls for that some time later in the future.

I would have suggested nt to fight today and if at all only once and if that with the smallest of the stops.

We did not have any shorting announced today. In fact, we think this trend of Dollar Down has , some more to go and the date is prominently located on the title of our page(s).

In any case, I belive, that one should minimise "market fighting" with the proper control of size where some more adversity can be tolerated.

Perhaps, the best way for some, of us not to play the tops and bottoms, but to play the trends as defined in our trend sections.

TREDNS ARE ALL UP today.

By definition picking the top is the hardest thing todo as the trends are strongest at the perceived tops and bottoms and that is why we end up with few tops on the way, because there is a fight between contrarians and TRENDERS. Usually TRenders have an advantage, unless the top bottom picker is much more skilled player.

I would like to repeate that we did not have any action issued today, because we belive that the TREND up is not yet exahuasted.

GOod Trading Dear Michael

xerxes said...

Who will be the bag holder when this is all said and done Dear Boris ...
J6P has already been tossed under the bus ---- Maybe the busy professional doc, dentist, lawyer who is too busy to do their own trading; they'll get pimped by PIMCO :-)

boris said...

Sorry, For all
OUT.Tar
Files are internal files form for me and they have been removed
Sorry for confusion.

Again My Apologies to all

GOod Trading

xerxes said...

The whole world knows the top is near, theoretically ...
So we're in the last wave up and to conform to rules, this one can't be longer than the 3rd wave (which was shorter than first) which was a 100 points; so the S&P 500 shouldn't exceed 1120 ...
But I'm not a believer in that religion as I worship at the (A)bsolutely (P)erfect Church of Currency, led by the High Cohen, the beloved, Dear Boris :-) Amen

And being close to the Wailing Wall adds a lot of confidence...

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Thanks for being
a member of our

"Church Of Currency"
some say
"Temple of Currency"

No Problem, we will keep asking the all mighty to make our predictions as good or better than were for all these years.

The rest if up to him!

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

I suppose you are correct. I was playing for an interday counter trend play using the 4th and 5th intraday APs on GBP as my guidance but those got taken out quicker than I could do anything about it. In your opinion, when is a counter-trend play a good play and when is it best to sit on my hand? Also we have had so much choppiness in everything the last month or so. Going with an established trend either made no money because of stops etc.. or worse, you come into an established trend close to the top/bottom and get taken out hard. This is similar to the Feb and March 2009 before the really good uptrend was established. Right now it is hard to be bull up and bears are being sniped from every corner. Interestingly, the pros and dumb moneys made gobs of money in the trend while the semi-literate and fundamentally aware traders got their heads handed to them over and over again.

Thanks dear Boris

Michael

boris said...

Dear Miachael,
There Is a trend table published every day on our site.
Now these can be supplemented by yourself , if you like to within the day.

YOu may say , the trend is down if 3 hourly bars low has been broken the trend is down.

So, this way now you have an hourly trend added to 3 trends on dotnet.

Now you say that at least three of the trends( including , always the hourly) must be in my direction or I will not trade in that direction.

Not that this will make you money always, but , at least you would have established that , you have a system, you can follow.

Now why I say, it is better to play the trend. It is because, I do not think many of our subscribers are truly ready for prime time TOP/BOTTOM picking for at least a year or so and within that year, one has to play the tops and bottoms with a very small amount and with a lot of patience.

One way to know how much can you play is this. Think about it this way. Play the size( I always come back to size) that even if you lose threee full points in GBP, you will not worry about it. It has to be so little money that you should not even feel it emotionally.

That depends on the amount of money one has and the way one looks at money and gets emotional about it.

SO it is a presonal thing.

But rule is that, if you got emotionally disturned after the trade, you traded wrong size.

It is true that it is hard to know exactly when the top or bottom has arrived, that is why, What I do is wait for large confluences.

Without those confluences, the single indication of top is suspect.

When a lot of confluence has been seen/observed then the level has more validity, but the rule stil( IRONE RULE) remains the small size, that can not get you emotionally, upset.

boris said...

Being Cool is the only way.
If one ever reads the Books on trading wizards, it is always one thing that clearly comes out.

The succesful trade is emotionally detached. He/she does not think about money. Just about trade. And execute it with the rules preconcived and followed clearly.

Again that is different. Coolness and degree of it is variable.

Some people can lose a lot and take it easy and some can lose little and be very upset about it.

SO THE SIZE MATTERS IN EVERY TRADE.

One should never trade money that he regrets losing. For more than 10 seconds or AT ALL.

I know that could mean just playing around if one is undercapitalised, but guess what, playing around is where WE ALL LEARN.

That is our eduction playing around.

Best way to learn is to play around, but apply analytical mind in the after the act analysis.

Trading is a long time education and one must make it cheap by playing around.

When one feels some progress has been made the size will increase and maybe too fast and that will get trader in emotional bind again .

As soon as that is notices trader must go back to whatever size lookd comfortable before the new one.

That is a signal from the body/mind of not being ready for this size of trading.

So, as the game continues, the trader becomes better and better.And as the emotions are out, the mind keeps concentrated on what happened and what not , but the main thing is repetitions are needed to learn.

Is not this how we learn everyting.

Most of traders, think they found something new they did not know before and that is why they became good traders.

All they have really learned is what is the optimal size of the positions they are able to trade.

That allowed them to concentrate on learning more and more on every trade.

So, Perhpas, there is still something missing in the way you veiw your trading size.

If you think you may need on average 3-4 try to search for top/bottom and find it or stop it then simply make sure that the size*3 money , if lost, will not bother you AT ALL.

Going back, to the idea that every trade teaches you something humans need repetitions to learn/observe.

Trending, can be alternated with the top/bottom play, to see how the "OTHER GUY" feels.

Again it is a learning process.

At some point the baiscs will become intrnalised and trader gets better faster.

Unfortunately, I do not know the shortcut to this process.

It maybe helpful to view the trades in the context of asset allocation, where the pace is easier and CORRECTABLE across the longer times and small steps( Asset allocation is by definition THAT). Like say Dollar is in long term decline some say( who knows) ok then you buy EURO 5% at a time until you reach 25% of EURO. Just having postion and following it daily( not trading , just followint) also developes ones understaing of the market and also teaches how ASSET ALLOCATOR trades. It helps to know who yur enemies are when you go trading. By experiencing some of all of what they do , makes us better trader. In my humble opinion, you will need, because you want to be a short term trader, at least half a year before you learn how to control money management aspects of your trading. Again,
Good Trading Dear Michael

John said...

Boris

Stay small and stay in business


Another bus is coming


old john

xerxes said...

Dear John....How are things in Arizona....Have you settled in well....BTW, and I say it in jest :-) but many women would conclude that if you stay small you are out of biz :-) So everything is relative :-) I think :-)

John said...

xerxes,

My wife and i are mostly settled. That is a very good line about women.

old john

xerxes said...

Dear Mike...I don't remember if I thanked you before but now I am...
For what, you must be asking yourself...Well, you noted the general behavior of USDCAD once to me, here, on this board, which worked, a lot ... Accurate information breeds confidence ... Maybe I should have realized it on my own; you shortened my learning curve ... Thank you again ...

Mike Truong said...

Dear xeres,

It is too bad that I do not follow my own advice. It is interesting as I look at so many pairs in FX that my head hurts and I forget about what I should be looking for. Coupled that with Boris APs and my emotional state lately, I have let losers run and cut short my winners ...truly the opposite of what one needs to do. I'll give you some examples. Last Friday I pinged the bottom of AUD/USD by about 10 pips or so (.8575) using boris's APs but bailed with only 40 pips gain because I wanted to lock in my gains whereas the night prior, using the APs of the same day, I sold AUDUSD and kept chasing it up because I couldn't stomach the trade as wrong. Still a lot to learn. Even today, I had sold AUDUSD and NZDUSD at the top .9085 and .7450 respectively but chickened out when things wouldn't move and bailed at a slight gain. Bottom picked USDCAD at 1.0510 and bailed with 10 pips when things didn't move again. Frustating to say the least.

boris said...

Dear Miachael,
Two issues,

It is ok , somewhat, if you did not let ther market run, while having winners, that happens to me a lot too. Im not saying this is so great, but it is acceptable, as the flip side is that I cut the losers even faster. So, that gives me an ability not to lose.

One of the , almost inevitable, things associated with that is that I also, often do not let my winniers run, but I achieve , my primary goal. I do not lose.

If/when I am coupling this with a truly succesful trades when it counts( big confluence ) days I get large winniers then. Because thing moves so fast for me that I stay in.

It is better to be this way than let the losers run. Once there, it is easier to concentrate on improcing on lettring winners run and improve that side of the equation.

I am an emotional trader. I know that. That is why this method suites me better.

Alternatively I take such a small ridiculous positions that I literally laugh at myslef, and that is a good position to be in. Lauging is better than crying.

I notice that you, and many traders, are close to my emotionality level and I know what helps there.

Now, besides looking for trades with larger confluence, therefore, critical stages, that could run winners, I would ask to add your favorite indicators.

For example, Directional MOvement Indicator, which can tell you that trends maybe exhahusting, can give you better confidence and entry points.

Set it for 1 minute, for emotional traders.

Have enough of the peacks on the graph for DMI to see what the "usual" peack looks like and when it gets close to there and market seems to be showing AP CONFLUENCES ( across indices, currencies etc) then it will be easier to strike the position. Still need to exit with small stop or gain, actually, because these situations, quickly give you the gains and you must instanly go breakeven then.

It maybe advisable to wait for On minute bar reversal, if you can not stomach hitting it while it is flying up.

Need to develop short term trading skills to the highest degree, if you want to play the

HARDEST GAME IN THE TRADING

Striking tops and bottoms

Good Traing Dear Michael

boris said...

One thing is clear, Dear Michael,
once you get the gains going, do not get to cut the winner by taking profits. No, just place the stop at breakeven.

And as I said do that almost as fast as within first 2-3 minutes after the "apparent turn"

Good Trading Dear Michael.

boris said...

Dear John,
Thanks Very Dear Friend

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Good morning dear boris

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Good Morning to you as well

Good Trading Dear Freiend

xerxes said...

German exports declining and imports rising...It's good to have the currency king on your side :-)

Banner performances in Shanghai/Tokyo today Dear Boris...

Down under not nearly so euphoric... Maybe my talk of P-A-R-I-T-Y had them spoooooooked :-)

xerxes said...

Change won the Nobel Peace Prize ... WTF?

boris said...

"Change won the Nobel Peace Prise"
We are in the wrong business Dear Xerxes

We should be in the change bsiness.

well, Change this!

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

Thugs are good for the change biz and I wouldn't make a good thug Dear Boris :-)

xerxes said...

Today seems to be shaping up for a USD disaster Dear Boris...

Loonie approached 2nd daily and the buck only managed a 10 pip bounce ..

Maybe I should shift the P-A-R-I-T-Y talk to the loonie Dear Boris...It could even get there later today, per the AP's :-)

xerxes said...

Headline:

US stock futures drift lower as dollar strengthens...

I'm wondering, Dear Boris, if the buck is considered to be strengthening when it declines at a slower pace...Orwellian doublespeak? :-)

xerxes said...

Antidollar has been on a roll since last Friday...AUDUSD rallied 6% ... that's over 300% yearly pace ...booommm

John said...

Boris,

Good morning
Very important that THEY keep this guy in power- popularity starts slipping-THEY make sure it is propped up. Seen it all now

old john

xerxes said...

With Mr change, being the commander in chief of a couple dog breakfasts, they made a mockery of the prize and themselves...The prize committee tried to make him look like the dog's dinner but it just appears to be nothing more than sheer lampoonery

boris said...

Emini on DotNet

xerxes said...

Dear John...Trade report said that oil imports were way down...Is everybody walking in the US these days :-)

John said...

xerxes,

have not been on the road lately, but two months ago, interstate traffic was very light. It was the height of vacation time and not much traffic at all

old john

boris said...

5 Minute AP
date a bit delayed
GOod Trading All

boris said...

Dear John,
Yes, We need appearences up.

Good Trading Dear Friend JOhn

boris said...

Market is trapped within the Area
so far
Good Trading

xerxes said...

The relic fell asleep today Dear Boris...

boris said...

I fell asleep too(:-
freakin day

waldo said...

Hello all, bond market closed early and will be closed monday also. Stocks could just wonder without the bond market pointing the way. waldo

John said...

market up-- dollar up

boris said...

What do you know
about

TUANA MEY

Just listen to
I'm Ok - Tuana Mey [Christina Aguilera]

Christina is big.

This Turkish Girl

is a devastation to anybody with any senses. It is maginificent to the point of being destructive,seductive, infinitely exiciting.

See other staff from her. She is the 10th wonder (:- 9th being Seniro Bocelli.

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear John,
Somebody said that may happen
I wonder who

Good Trading Dearest friend John

boris said...

Dear Waldo,
Good TO hear from you very Dear Friend

John said...

that is why i mentioned it

gorli said...

hello boris, is there any change in your outlook on u.s.bonds?
gorli

boris said...

Do people observe how strong the JPY move has been, with 2 point loss in last two days against Dollar.

I thought this will come at the begining of October, but I will take it on 9th(:-

Good Trading Dear Readers

boris said...

Frankly, I do not like this action, even though I would like to remain constructive on bonds.

I would wait for the date we have for stocks to "slow down" in our Market Reports and after that bonds keep making new lows, I would lighten up on all NONCORE bond holdings

Good Trading Dear Gorli

boris said...

I have a bit more update on bonds on DOTNET

boris said...

Most/all day so far, has been spend within the area outlined by us

Good Trading

xerxes said...

I mentioned here how I developed a yen for life the other day Dear Boris ... :-)

xerxes said...

S&P 500 Index Level Fundamentals

Ratio

2Q 2009

2008

2007
PE
122.384

60.688

22.190