Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Degree Of Sopitalism, Measure Of Freedom


I have , humbly, developed the measure of system/country , therefore citizens , ability to survive and I call it a degree of SOPITALISM.
DS=max(TX,ND)
where
DS=Degree Of Sopitalism( degree of survivability)
TX=tax as a percentage of personal income
ND=national debt as a percentage of National income

This is based on the assumption that one's government taxes directly or indirectly
Direct taxes show up in the personal taxes
Indirect taxes, show up in national debt

National Dept grows, apparently mostly, because government wants to blind people to the fact that they are taxed, so the taxes are reduced(BUSH) or kept low( OBAMA) and the HIDDEN TAX ( national debt) is let to grow.

On this bases, currently the the countries that are most restrictive in the freedoms and rich in SOPITALISM are JAPAN,UK, UNIED STATES, ITALY and few others with national debt being out of the sight for all of them.

Of course distinctions should be made about who does the country owe money and in which currency? which has its own advantages and disadvantages, but I am not sure it makes the difference to individuals freedom and survivability.
So country default swap(CDS) , otherwise called the DEGREE OF SOPITALISM(DS) is simply the highest of the taxation rate and national debt to income ratio.Now you know , how free you are. No matter where you live(:-

68 comments:

John said...

Boris

Good point about he immigrants to Israel.
The problem is that the work ethic seems to die after a few generations.

old john

boris said...

Dear JOhn,
Exactly, that was my point at the end of it, exactly.

I see my kids, not that they are not good kids, in fact, by all , CURRENT measures , they are good kids. But You are right second generation, already , is not what it was. It will never be, until the situation gets bad again and teaches them lessons, that I was able to intenalise in my young age.

Good Trading Dear John

Ivan said...

Dear Boris, small correction (if I understood well), the equation is: DS=max(TX, ND) :))

boris said...

emini193 on DotNet

boris said...

Dear Ivan,
Thanks, I was not trying to follow any formal definiton of the funtion. IN different notations it could be different. EXCEL may have different notation and other languages may have different notations for parsers to understand. This one was written for humand parsers to parse(:-

Thanks Dear Ivan

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Good morning.
Thanks and good trading.

Bert

boris said...

Dear Bert,
Good Morning and
Good Trading My very Dear Friend

boris said...

If short , please lock some profits below 1057

boris said...

If EURO does not stop here
We have , at least, one more point down!

boris said...

There has to be something wrong with EURO when it cannot rally as USA consumer confidence goes into TOILET!

xerxes said...

Better red than dead today Dear Boris :-)

xerxes said...

I thought that weak US data was dollar supportive Dear Boris and strong US data was pro euro/antidollar ....

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
We do not get for thinking, we , as traders, get paid for anticipating and then reacting(:-

Markets can do any god dam thing they want to do and we are nobody to question why.

At the end of the day the question is have we anticipated, have we reacted?

That is all. As I have explained today the trends have changed ( see the table in market report ).


Our inicators speak to us and they better anticipate or flow with news, not the other way around

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

consumer confidence came in well below expectations. The Conference Board says Tuesday its Consumer Confidence Index fell to 47.7 in October, well below a forecast of 53.1.

Well, Dear Boris, of course, confidence is on the wane....36 million are on food stamps; the remaining 271 million are worried the well will be dry when their time comes :-)

xerxes said...

Bloomberg says that steel prices in china are plummeting (down 23%) but that hasn't stopped them from making more....the mills keep pumping out more steel; each month they make more steel than the prior month.....Now they make 1/2 of the world's steel and increasing....they lack the discipline to control production and its flooding the world's markets .....

China --- wild, ill-disciplined and out-of-control Dear Boris; central planning with free money is a beautiful combo --- And when it comes to printing Dear Boris they make Bernanke/Obama look like pikers :-)

xerxes said...

Our inicators speak to us and they better anticipate or flow with news, not the other way around

Exactly, and that's what happened, so far .....

boris said...

Frankly,
Dear Xerxes,
China, is as desperate of a country as ours is. It is like dead carry the dead to cemetary.

USA, can get back up on its feet if it goes down, China CanNot. At least not this regime of half COMMIES , half CAPITALISTS, who are terrified with any slowdown, as it may cuase them to emplode and be deposed.

Frankly, I do not think this is a stable situation. Somthing tells me this does not end well.

COMMIE Pretenders playing the SOPITALIST games with CAPIpretenders , I mean US, of course.

Does not add up, somehow.
I know it worked so far, if you call this working(:-

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

When the next 'Great Leap Forward' comes to pass, I wonder, Dear Boris, how the new Chairman Paulson Zedong and his assistant Deng Bernanke will save the day for GS :-)

boris said...

Yes, Indeed.
Count me among the wonderers too

Dear Xerxes

Mike Truong said...

GBP looks like it is grinding out the overbought condition and coiling for a spring back into the hourly up channel bring it to test the yearly high of 1.70 while EUR seems to be breaking down. I have a potential target of 1.45 for the next week or so while there is a potential move to 1.37. Just a bit of chart readings

Mike

boris said...

Dear Michael,
Good To hear from you

Dear Friend. I agree with most of your musings here. I think GBP , under your assumptions, may have espcially good times against EUROS!

Good Trading Dear Michael

boris said...

Please note
new message regarding Currencies/Stocks on DotNet

xerxes said...

Dear Mike .... The 4th hourly conflated with the 38% retrace of the crash the other day and squid was rejected from there...There was also a MACD histogram divergence at the same point ... Three strikes so I shorted ... Reversed after it hit the ETB 13;0.33 tweezered and rose ... Because the buck has legs these days, surprises should favor the buckeroo, as Dear Boris once told me, so I suspect further gains against antidollar, but I cashed out anyways as I got bills to pay :-) But I see what your saying about the up channel ...

Dear Boris told me about the 3 strike rule and I saw that on EURUSD hourly so I unloaded some euros just before the waterfall... I was pissed that I only did a small wad but Mr. Market always gives you a 2nd chance and I sold some more near 1.49 this morning but I'm still stuck with too many euros .... But I'm not convinced that the buck won't sink back down soon as the SPX is still inside its ascending wedge formation and so it could surprise with an upthrust, sinking the buck ....

dimitry said...

Xerxes, what is ETB 13 0.33 ? Thank you in advance

xerxes said...

Dear Dimitry .... ETB = Envelope trading band 13 = time period and .33 = the variance

xerxes said...

The buck seems to be running out of steam against many of its competitors...The pause that refreshes or disaster Dear Boris....

Aboot-Bull said...

Dear Boris,

Wanted to ask you for some time now... what u think of real-estate prices in the holy-land ??????

tnx ;-)
A-B

Mike Truong said...

Dear Xerxes,

Watch CAD this and next week. My feeling is we will get some major weakness (strong USD) as many things will be in play. Oil, commodities, etc...Also the Canadian governement hinted that fair value for CAD should be around 86-90 US cents. I think they are getting ready to intervene if the players keep pushing for parity. Else I think we will churn for another day or two around this area before leaving for 1.09 to 1.12 sometime next 2 weeks.

boris said...

Dear A-B,
I think real estate prices in Israel, are out of sight.

It only costs about $120.0000.00 to build and apartment of 150 square meter size. But they are sold for over 500.000.00 in central Israel. That is now very expensive on an average salary being less than $2000.00 /month, places Israel in one of the last places , in terms of affordability of real esate. It is expensive on all measures.

Why?

A) Goverment, being in total control of land, supports high prices, that way they can collect more taxes , more money when they sell the land and in general, higher prices, more taxes on evrything. Israel style. Israeli's do not need anybody to tech them how to screw their population
B) Speaking of population, it is growing (natural birth) and it is educated, due to the influx of Old USSR academics ( thousands of them) and the Israelis/Jews from around the world found the Israel to be best place to speculate in (Un)real estate and hide money as well.
C)Peace, Yes, Israel, is in relative peace, IRAN's threat notwithstanding, the Franch Jews, especially, feel safer here than in France, where Arab population is large and growing fast and makes Jews threatened( remember disturbencies two years ago). Once ZARPATI(Franch) Jews came over and tasted the money safety and appreciation in Real Estate , they continued it.
D)BOIsrael is keeping interest rates near zero( raised a bit recently) and that is helping Israelis think of Real Estate as the only investment that held up last few years.
E)Shekel appreciated and that helped INVESTORS to keep the money in Israel. Especially In real estate.
F) Cherche La Fam, say the Franch. Look for the women. And that is true many times over in Israel. Most Israeli women see the husbands as a way to get to HOUSE, place , castle of their own. I do not think this is very different all across the world, but I reapeate, this is especially strong in ISrael. Women are the main driving force behind the PURCHASE/OWNERSHIP of property. They feel safe that way. Who can blame them(:-.

Ok, now, how and when will this end? Many of these processes are retractable. Israeli population will stop gworing in next 5-6 years, Peace is threatened by Iran and it's clients Hisbolla(Lebanon) and HAMAS( Gaza). If anything, and it is sad to feel that way, for Israeli/Jewish enemies, Israel is the last and the biggest Ghetto of Jews and if they can strike thig Ghetto, they can cause Another 2000 years of wondering in the desert! The Generation of USSR born academics that fed the technology boom in Israel will be diminishing as that population fades. The foreigners seeing these problems in affordability,peace and growth will start deserting insrael in drowes and that may create situation very similar to Ireland( Iron man of EUROPE for 15 years), which is now in shambles being the victim of the success(access(:- ) of last 15 years.

So,the short way to say all of the above is simple. Israel is not on healthy path. And the Government forgot its own roots and is working hard to enrich themselves and created "Country Of Tel-Aviv"(More like the Ghetto of Tel-Aviv), by abandoing the principle of development of population of periphery(actually, I see this as a total failure of ZIONISM, and I am not an enemy of ZIONISTS). while things appear to be OK everybody is dancing and music is playing. As Citibank Exectuive Prince said, hard to imagine what happens when the Music stops and stop it will. Israeli (Un)Real investor may have anywhiere from 2-5 years before this all explodes in their faces. It is hard to time this situation, but it is not in next generation. It is much closer than anybody thinks

Good Trading Dear A-B

xerxes said...

When I see the word zionism, I think of Rudolf Kastner ....

boris said...

Well, Dear Xerxes,
It hurts me very much to describe, what I see. I love USA and I love Israel and I hated USSR, but sometimes I wonder if we have not become much worse than what old USSR was.

It is all about money now. Money is not a problem for me in general, but when the "money UBER Alles" policies are supported, I cannot admire that policy or those politicians.

Unfortunately that is what we have though. Endless recycling of money from the hands of those that have earned it honestly to those that have not earned it at all or earned dishonestly.

I hope things change, but know enought about history to not deceive myself.

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

Oppenheimer described the 'political' vs 'economic' strategies ... Clearly, the former trumps the latter making those that choose industry to be simple fools ...

boris said...

Well,
I guess, Dear Xerxes, This Oppenheimer Dude knew a lot about the world and human beings(:-

xerxes said...

Franz Oppenheimer (born 30 March 1864 in Berlin; died 30 September 1943 in Los Angeles) was a German-Jewish sociologist and political economist, who published also in the area of the fundamental sociology of the state.

"There are two fundamentally opposed means whereby man, requiring sustenance, is impelled to obtain the necessary means for satisfying his desires. These are work and robbery, one's own labor and the forcible appropriation of the labor of others.

I propose the following discussion to call one's own labor and the equivalent exchange of one's own labor for the labor of others, the “economic means" for the satisfaction of needs, while the unrequited appropriation of the labor of others will be called the "political means."

xerxes said...

What's the gig with th JPY Dear Boris...It is stronger than the buck now...Is it the new hegemon

xerxes said...

Subcontinent gold buyers must be on strike dear Boris

boris said...

propose the following discussion to call one's own labor and the equivalent exchange of one's own labor for the labor of others, the “economic means" for the satisfaction of needs, while the unrequited appropriation of the labor of others will be called the "political means."

Howdy Dear Oppenheimer.
Please Oppen it more if you can(:-
This is fascinating!

xerxes said...

Now Now Dear Boris ...no need to mock me ... He wrote his opus long before we were born ... And I read his works before I read yours :-)

xerxes said...

Jimmy Rogers says the dollar rally will last quite a while; so it will end when, Dear Boris, today, tomorrow or Friday :-)

boris said...

O, Dear Jimmy,
For once he seems to be in sync with me and he is always right, when he is in synch with me.

But give him time, he will lost that synch soon(er) or later(:-

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

boris said...

Howdy AUD(:-

boris said...

But please contain youselves.
AUD maybe approaching a local extreme(low)!

xerxes said...

Your AUD AP's were a bit screwy today Dear Boris; I'm not in on that trade, unfortunately ...

boris said...

What makes you think AUD is SCREWY
I do not see that
Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

First hourly low is lower than 2nd daily low....2nd hourly low is higher than 4th daily low

boris said...

That is not a problem
AUD makes big moves in AUD time frame and that makes things work the way they do.

The same can be seen if GOld makes big moves around AUD time 18-24 ET
That is not a problem, that is the way it is
Good Trading Dear Xerxes

boris said...

out for a little walk

John said...

Boris

an hour walk a day

old john

boris said...

Dear John,
Just Comming back.
Short(er) walk but in conjunction with the weight-lifting done this morning I keep the promis!(:-

Good Trding my Dearest Friend John

boris said...

Comments ON Market Report page DotNet. May not have chart today

boris said...

For EURO the same parmaters apply as yesterday. IF we do not hold the 1.48 we are likely to hit 1.47 today

boris said...

5 minute APs coming

boris said...

If you are still in short positions take some profits around 1045-1048 area

boris said...

Let EURO CRASH TO 1.47 BEFORE COLLECTING SOME , MOST!!!

boris said...

bOY Do the Suckers play this game ha! they take 20 cents down 18 up and repeate that again , how mant times now.

Well!

Maybe here it comes again.

(:-

xerxes said...

SPX fell below 3rd daily Dear Boris ...

boris said...

Yes, that has not happend in a long time ha!(:-
Maybe Bulls are PIP when they see that(:-

boris said...

Please note , Cash SPX did hit 61 Fibo retrace.
So, trail intelligently if you still have some shorts

boris said...

I am willing here to buy back what I sold at 1084

boris said...

Please note, Also sold my UUP position for now, very small one, ended up with a miniscule loss on that. Most likely will reestablish again

Good Trading

boris said...

If you would like to see our performance now and total from March 2009, please see the link below or just look at the post( you are now reading the comments section)

Now And ALL

Good Trading

boris said...

I would like for all to know.
What we did here does not speak to any of our implications of the lows having being reached for this decline , etc.

No, we do not know yet(:-, Yes we are stupid to know those things. They seem to be only knowable in the rear mirror!

All we did is to complete some roundtrip trade, that is all.

GOod Trading Dear Readers

xerxes said...

NDX broke down below its rising wedge Dear Boris on the 60 minute ...
Looks like the DOW has been making a descending wedge over the last number of days; a bounce in the cards?

Looks like its curtains for antidollar Dear Boris .....

boris said...

I have very few problems with that statment dEAR xERXES,
that
Looks like its curtains for antidollar...

I can live with that, at least, temporarily(:-

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

boris said...

UPdate On "Market Report"

xerxes said...

Loonie already off by 6% Dear Boris ... Maybe 'Mark Carney' is really 'Art Carney' Dear Boris :-)

xerxes said...

When Turkish cab drivers are happy accepting payment in USD's Dear Boris, it will be time to go long EURUSD once again :-)

boris said...

That is good one Dear Xerxes,
The only problem is how would I know. I am close, but do not live in Turky(:-

Good Trading Dear Xerxes