Tuesday, August 04, 2009

Within, Striking Distance/time, is a local top?


1000.62
1001.88
1003.92
1006.47

spx
995.30
994.04
992.00
989.46


90 comments:

boris said...

Mike Truong said...
Boris,

Obviously we are now in a cyclical bull market within a secular bear market. My question is when does a cyclical bull becomes a secular bull and vice versa? Also you don't have to answer it here but was 666 the final low for this secular bear or do bear market ends on rounded zig-zag shape instead of a sharp V.

Thanks dear friend,

Michael

8/03/2009 5:49 PM


xerxes said...
Good Morning Dear Boris

8/04/2009 2:43 AM

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
GOod Morning, Dear Friend

boris said...

Dear Michael,
To me the Secular Bear ends, when inflation adjusted market is higher than the high of the previous bull top. So 2000(inflation adjusted high) when exeeded, I would have told you the secular Bear is over.

Low may come some time before that, and it could come sometime between 8-18 years from the top. So, there, Dear Michael.

Thanks for the question.

xerxes said...

Will EURUSD get to the 1st ILAP? Bloomberg says that we are in unprecedented times as this is first recovery ever to be led by Europe and China rather than USA...I didn't know Europe was in recovery...

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Shekel is a Canary!
Low yesterday 3.75, today 3.85 that is a 2.5% decline in one day( rise in quote , of course(:- )

Good Trading Dear Xerxs

xerxes said...

Maybe Dear Boris...BOI embarked on a program to weaken shmeck...This could obviate its canary function...EURUSD thumbing its nose :-)

xerxes said...

Czech Koruna Plunges Against Dollar

Finally Dear Boris, a USD bullish headline :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Best thing that can happen to American Public is that Dollar stops being the Worlds Reserve Currency.

Then the sharlatans in our financial system would have to live within their means and some other currency would have to be devalued to satisfy worlds need to "party".

USA prints Dollars, world gets geesed, Rich Americans invest oversees, poor Americans and pensioners get screwed. BRIC(Brazil, Russia, India, CHINA) screem bloody death to dollar ( but buy boat loads of it) and the circus continues in circles.

Notice the only loser is AMERICAN PUBLIC.

ENOUGH IS ENOUGH.
Let the Dollar Be for Americans only.

Let everyone else find their own favorite "thing" to devalue.

Feels sick from the average USA worker and especially retiree, cause the retiree is not making any new money , while the old money is melting under the UltraViolet rays of "purchase power destructor" SUN.

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

So true Dear Boris...The next thing to devalue will be the 'Phoenix' Dear Boris :-)

boris said...

Please note the emini141.gif is on dot net along with the new asset file

Good Trading Dear Subscriber

boris said...

I will be sparsly available between 10-12 AM

Good Trading Dear Readers

boris said...

Hi, I am back.
A lot has happened, in last hour so. Market managed to go lower and then higher. Our outline remains unchanged with the Gree arrow getting more favor, unless we drop down through VB top.

GOod Trading Dear Subscribers

boris said...

About GOld And Silver
Message at Dot Net
Please read Dear Subscribers

GiuseppeM said...

Hi Boris, which type of chart you use to study Sp Emini. Hourly without limitation, or tick chart... Thanks

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

How was your walk today? Another quiet day still huh? Topping action maybe?...

Good trading dear friend,

Michael

Mike Truong said...

I think in this market it best to trade with the trend. Trend is still up so no need to pick top and bottom. Seems like no one wants the market to drop just yet.

Interestingly, US consumer bitched and moaned about the cost of living but no one ever wants to question why prices on commodities go up. Bunch of sheep we are...

Someday Americans will wake up but it will be too late unless we collectively decide to default on all of our debts and starve the beast. All are still too clueless to do anything about it and the .gov is all too happy to keep them there...

boris said...

Dear GiussepeM,
I am using regular Hourly charts, but apply the APs on 5m inute, hourly and daily bases.

GOod Trading Dear Friend

boris said...

Sorry, I was under darkness for over 3 hours, the overload of electicity has caused half of the city being shut down from the grid!

Good Trading, And Terribly sorry being out of touch

boris said...

Well, In anticipation of not being able to anticipate exact tops and bottoms ( in spite of us having , perhaps the best record of doing that), I had advised to be in the nice safe yeild stocks and nobody wanted to listen then. Now it is too late. This market will go down one day and that will not be too long before it does, but if it does or not , I wanted to have people in a position to keep making money.

TOPS are much harder to predict than bottoms, because the bottoms are pointy.


TOPS ARE NOT
THEY ARE LIKE MOUNTAINS SPREAD
ACROSS LONG PERIOD

Nevertheless, if anything I am prone to sell more of my holdings if/when markets go up.

I am not prone bying it.
For a day trade perhaps.

What if you could make money , if market goes up or down and we know it will do both.

JP MOrgan said ( STOCKS WILL FLUCTUATE) in answer to what the maekts are going to do.

He must have known something , which a lot of people do not to this day!!!!!!!!!!


Good Trading Dear Michael

boris said...

The point of my musings above is simple.

It attempts to answer a quesion.

What do you do now???

That depends where you are.
Nobody comes to this point without having prior life(:-


Ok then here it is

1) If you have nice Yield safe stocks hold them, even if they go below where you bought them overtime they will make money as you get payed to wait.
2) If you do not have any stocks, please do not chase, perhaps you can do some longer term accumulation to get to the core( over 2-3 years period)
3) If you have too many momentum stocks please, sell more than few of those, cause if/when ( and it will one day) markets go down they will be crashed again.

So here, this is not a sciense( perhaps they trading is), but investment is not. Well, it maybe bit of a sciense, but it is not so difficult.

THat still leaves the question of, when do we buy in the accumulation regime.

Have courage to accelerate accumulation when markets are sharply down, but otherwise go at the original pace ( 2-3 years 24-36 month equal amounts accumulation.


Now, really, this not sciense.

What could be a science , knowing/feeling when is the market really down, cause down market can dow downer(or I should have said lower).

GOod Trading All

Mike Truong said...

dear Boris,

Thanks for the advice. That's has been what I thought you would say.

It is just frustrating when I look at the big picture and see things are not right or maybe I am still looking at the trees in a forest and missing the whole world.

I say frustrating because it seems like there is an agreed accord among all the major players in the world (sopitalists) to drive the markets higher and higher using the devalued dollar as the vehicle. I do not trade (only on paper) but even when I don't lose real money, I can still feel angry. After all, apporximately everyday 15-30 minutes before the close we get a ramp in everything against the dollars (stocks, commodities, FX markets). What kind of market does that continually and not be looked at as manipulated...Or maybe it is "trained" short specialists who has learned the lessons well and front run the ramp thus creating the ramp...

Thanks for your teachings dear Boris,

Michael

boris said...

Fortunately, The patterns are still recognisable. You See Dear Michael nothing happens that did not happen before. We are human beings after all.

And your frustration is understood on a human level. I express it too. On the trading level, it is disastrous to do so.

Need to turns it off.

Yes the Retirees and Savers are thrown to Dogs. That is the way it has been.

And Yes, I appreciate and encourage the revulsion at the human level and support that. It cannot be any other way. But I also urge when looking at the markets, turn them off. If you want to profit from the markets one must.

GOod Trading Dear Michael

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

I noticed that rarely do you call for shorting but rather to sell assets then wait for all the right pieces to fall into place and buy assets. In a way that is probably the best advice one could take in learning to trade. Looking back at when you decide to sell/buy assets corresponded well with major turning points/dates. Also I noticed that not all turn dates are important to you, although you can't tell before hand. That is interesting and am planning on learning more. I know my subscription to your service will be worth more than any money I would have lost trying to learn the market on my own. Thanks for being a good and patient trading teacher...

Michael

Hopper said...

Hi Boris,

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) is not breaking its upper resistance and looks to be slowly sinking. It is used by some as an early fundemental indicator...

Cheers & Good Trading

boris said...

Dear Michael,
Concept of shorting as in selling something one does not have is not a problem for me. And we do provide possible actions on this in daily update ( long or short, for a day trade it matters none). But the service as a whole is for asset allocators indeed.


Mankind always needed basic neccesities from the inception and that did not change.

CORE HOLDINGS are neccessities. Yes that is what I teach and if can go beyond core do it at "right times" then that is the thing to do.

Buy Buying any asset we are always shorting.

YES WE ARE SHORTING DOLLARS and that is the part of asset allocation as well( CASH ).

Not all my cash is in DOllars, btu Yes, we , as asset allocators, short all the time (when we buy), we short CASH ( DOLLAR, EURO, etc)


Good Trading Dear Michael.
ANd Yes, enjoy the learing as it will last you lifetime.

boris said...

I am having problems with my AP calculators, looks like yesterdays power outage may have damaged some important files.

Chekcing out

xerxes said...

Good Morning Dear Boris...

xerxes said...

Looks like maybe a rising wedge, emphasis on maybe, forming in the S&P, Dear Boris...

boris said...

I Can Certainly see that possibility Dear Xerxes
GoodMorning My Very Dear Friend

xerxes said...

It looks like we'll get to 1000 on the relic soon Dear Boris, next week?

xerxes said...

Bloomberg sez that in a Chinese survey, Real estate developers were noted as the least trustworthy group in the country, Dear Boris

xerxes said...

EURUSD not running this morning...Feels like a bit of a top...

xerxes said...

I wonder if Bernanke could drive the buck higher just as Fischer has the last couple days dear Boris :-)

xerxes said...

Purloined this from another blog, Dear Boris:

Look at what happened in that first quarter GDP number — total GDP contracted around $30 billion at an annual rate, but when you strip out all the government activity, ranging from spending, to tax reductions, to benefit payouts, the decline exceeded $300 billion. In other words, without all the government intervention, the decline in GDP in 1Q would have been closer to an 8% annual rate, not 1%.

boris said...

AP's have now been updated
Good Tradig Dear Subscribers

xerxes said...

Euroland retail sales disappoint, printing a negative number when a positive was expected...But yesterday Bloomberg said that the euroland was moving out of recession...

boris said...

Also, the europroj2.gif was placed
in place of today's market commentaries. See Comments in Market Report.

Good Trading

xerxes said...

ISM and ADP today Dear Boris...They say the latter is less important than the former in moving EURUSD...
(-) 350 and 48 are consensus numbers...

xerxes said...

Survey released this morning and Bloomberg sez that respondents are more concerned about federal budget deficit than health care reform, that the latter should be abandoned if the deficit would rise...Also, 72% said they don't believe the big O when he says that the reform will be deficit neutral...

I guess, Dear Boris, that they surveyed a bunch of fx traders, unwittingly :-)

xerxes said...

Bloomberg sez that investors in US equities should pray for a falling dollar on fx markets as it is likely to spur gains in their shares....

So Dear Boris, I should be happy that I got plenty of kitchen cabinets to burn in my fireplace during the winter months...I can save on heating oil :-)

xerxes said...

Surging to/past 1st IHAP for EURUSD Dear Boris

xerxes said...

Dear Boris, GS reported that they made a 100 million USD, of trading profits, on 46 separate days during Q2.....Nice

xerxes said...

ADP number was (-) 371k with consensus having been (-) 350k....
This trimmed EURUSD gains, knocking it down to support at the 200 simple on the 15 min...

xerxes said...

ISM Nion-Manufacturing,at 10:00 am EST...Consensus was 48

boris said...

What are the chances, the ISM will be interpreted Bearish or Bullsish

Please see Dot Net

GOod Trading Dear Subscriber

xerxes said...

Nice piece on the ISM....That's how I'm positioned Dear Boris....

boris said...

emini42
is on DotNet

Dear SUbscribers

boris said...

Deare Xerxes, Thanks
GOod Trading and be careful

Dear Friend

boris said...

While, Market is down the Currencies are not that much down from the ISM point, so, act accordingly.

Good Trading

boris said...

Stocks have supported on the parallel channels we charted today. We did not assign too much probability to getting there, but anything is possible.

YOu all know where we are visa-vis the Turn date

Meanwhile, really still, Currencies have not lost too much from ISM announcement, whil markets did.

Buy the way, that may be part of the theory I have advinced about gold relative strenght that has tie in about currencies.

I will provide comment for that in Dot Net soon as well.

GOod Trading

boris said...

I have provided that comment on DOTNET about relative strenght within the ANTIDOLLAR world

Good Trading Dear Subscribers

xerxes said...

In conjunction with your always prescient comments, this time on the ISM, I snagged EURUSD right at the 3rd Dear Boris...

xerxes said...

looks like we follow the yellow today Dear Boris...

boris said...

careful with this stocks market it has broken every bit of support idea upto now. The Yellow Arrow maybe becoming reality If this mid parallel channel at 991 is taken out

GOod Trading Dear Subscribers.

Relative of STOCKS

S U C K S

GOod Trading Dear SUbscribers

boris said...

If this market survives here , it will rally back to 999-1002
Survival means it should not break below 990

Good Trading Dear Subscribers

boris said...

I believe the fact that it was not able to stage immediate rally by 1030 AM is to worry bulls here.
As I said one misstep here and almost full moon may have finally gotten the bulls.

Of course, we have different projections to account for this(:-

GOod Trading Dear Subscribers

boris said...

We did not assign big probability to the Lower area of VB around or after ISM, once we got it, something was wrong with the Dark arros scenario(:-

Good Trading Dear Subscribers

boris said...

SPX must take out the 999 on cash( note that is about 3 pts higher than EMINI) or bulls are in for a deep dudu today

xerxes said...

We got to ard 999.30, now sitting at 998.75 on cash S&P....So how are the bulls doin' Dear Boris :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes, that and no crashyet before 1pm is a plus for bulls within the big minus of entire action today.

But there is even more formidable are that SPX has now challenge at 1001, on closing basis 30 minute bars.

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

When BOE announced its QE policy cable was 142.xx..Today 1.70xx...So, it seems, Dear Boris, that printing does make one wealthier :-)

xerxes said...

So Mervyn King has the Midas touch while Bernanke has the Mugabe touch :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
it is either that or on purchase parity bases at 135 GBP was cheap, but that is not true at 1.70, so I'd say just give BRUTISH time it will find real desrved place(:-

GOod Trading Dear Xerxs

xerxes said...

Bloomberg says that cable is going to outperform all the major antidollars into September

boris said...

While Currencies are still following to large extent the timing I outlined this morning, the Stock Market is not, which again goes with my message about the relative realignments going on in the ANTIDOLLAR WORLD

GOod Trading Dear SUbscribers

boris said...

I cannot refute or support that at this time.

Dear Xerxes

Mike Truong said...

dear boris,

For the leader of the antidollar, do you recommend, when the time is right, to buy it or to buy those you recommended awhile ago?

Thanks,

Michael

xerxes said...

Now Bloomberg says that if the BOE ends QE tomorrow then cable will rally...Why? Cuz that means that they will stop diluting the value of the pound....

So, Dear Boris, when they dilute cable it soars and when they stop diluting it soars, then what conditions cause a decline? :-)

So, Dear Boris, you think on a PPP basis, cable at 1.35 was cheap...Right, 3 quids for a cup of crappy coffee is not cheap :-)

boris said...

I am not kidding , this market has the looks like it could pull out the crash before 1201 ET today!

THat would be something.

I can not really ascribe probability realiably, but there at least a 25% chance that this kind crash could take place, right here right now within next 20 minutes. Notice the slow sneakly draft lower, if it can accelearte and drop 10 points in no time...

If it did not happen by 1210 ET, then it would have passed the danger

Good Trading All

xerxes said...

Bloomberg says that a survey this week shows that only 3% of traders are bullish on the dollar...Still some fools about Dear Boris :-)

xerxes said...

Deare Boris....Bloomberg sez that the USD carry trade has gone big time now and will keep relentless pressure on the buck....

If this is as big as they suggest, makes you wonder what will stop a rapid advance into freefall...1.75xx by September?

boris said...

I have to readjust my timing, instead of the 1210 it is now around 1235 ET. So, not predicting, just considering the time frame as dangerous. Of course , if market , instead rallies, then that would be that. Not suggesting selling or anything, obviously for a crash to occure, fist we need to break today's lows, so, that would be a minimum before taking action, if any, until then, let us observe

Good Trading Dear Subscribers

xerxes said...

Bloomberg says that the employment number is going to be bad, 100's of 1000's in job losses with the UE rate hitting 9.6% at least...

xerxes said...

The Big O says, we gave trillions to wall street but now we'll give you 2.2 billion to develop batteries that can get you 100 miles, and we'll build them right here in America

xerxes said...

S&P passed 1000 Dear Boris....

They loved the Big O as he talked about responsibility and doing the right thing...

boris said...

Dear Xerxes, Subscribers, Readers,
the crashet window has come and gone the original GBP timing I gave to subscribers won over the Bad stock internal timing and pulled the market up just a bit, still bad bat "not as bad"(:- to use the BLOOMBERG+CNN terminology.

I am putting the Emini142update on the DotNet, for subscribers

ENJJOY

xerxes said...

CNBC says crude is being stockpiled Dear Boris

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
We have huge Stockpile for OIL, largetst, of course , we need to keep it fool or should I have said full. Well, regardless(:-

The tankers on the high seas got cheap, why not Dear Xerxes, as lnog as there is "BACKWARDATION" in futures contracts that is nice way to make money. If you can survive pirates that is(:-

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

Vishal said...

Dear Boris

I clicked the "Services" tab on the dotnet site, but I do not see any "Emini" file....

boris said...

Dear Vishal,
Sorry for confustion
The file is in the same place where the Asset files are

Good Trading My Very Dear Friend and I have send you email relating to this

boris said...

Yes, and in continuation of OIL stockpile thing...

You see the Contango(no backwardation) exists so that those who can store oil can make money.
Now I hear from grape wine that BIG BAD BS GS( Goldman Sacks) of rouse, knows all of this and hires pirates, so that nobody else will try to do the same. This way they have the entire field left to themslves to profit from

CONTANGO(:-

Let us tango to that.
Well, to fully disclose, what I just said is not from any reliable source.

I just dreamed it up, but I , usually , have very realistic dreams(:-

boris said...

What if, the Market?

See update on DOt Net Comment
Good Trading

Vishal said...

cheers Boris, I got it now.

check this out about over favorite "bank"

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/08/goldman-sachs-q2-winning-percentage-97.html

boris said...

Dear Vishal,
Dear Subscribers,
Dear Readers,

When one has monopoly status, one does not need PHD's or secret programs and front running and all that BS Ok!

There is a lot of misinformation going around, some of deliberate(:-

That GS found genious way of making money by front running and haveing faster computers.

Now, let me say this.

You do not need genious when when the entire market is worth 6 Trillion Dollars and FED backs you up with 9 trillion dollars( where did that money go that nobody know fed lend to).

Ha! market is woth 6 trillion and you can play 9 trillion Monopoly money.

DO you need a front running?
Come again?

I know as much about networks and computers and trading as 99% of wall streeters do.

Do you think you can make money that way.

No, You can make money, by having information nobody has and or being the information that nobody is.

Did you get that?

GOldman does not need inside information.

GOldman is inside information.

So, the market is down all bears are exhausted for a day and have some 100-100000 dollars working for them then comes the GS BS and puts a bid for 10000000 dollars, what do you think happens.

SO, you think GOldman JPM need your information.

No they do not.

They have monopoly money at play that far acceeds entire market valuation.

Excuse me Dear all readers and blogers.

Technology apart, it is not vizards like me that make money for GOLDman.

It is the GOLDMAN power to move the market that makes money for GOLDMAN

CPAISH and I Hope the story is claer now!
F I N A L L Y!

Vishal said...

capiche....Its just astonishing that they can have a 97% trading day win record....of course if you look at it as how Boris puts it, then it makes perfect sense

cheers

boris said...

OH! do not get me wrong.
The faster computers help to execute more and fast so that you can make more rounds of the same

"INSIDE INFORMATION" trade
without having inside iformation.
And You Need at least copule people who know how to turn coputers and code FIX protocol exectution and query orders and you need the colocation with the closesest router to the exachange and on and on..


BS . None of that will do what GM and JPM get out of rhose, for you , UNLESS you are GS and JPM.

OK!

Good Trading

boris said...

Maybe I can state this in
ENGLISH, so that people do not need to think about technology.

Emagine you have a stock.
That you regularily trade and there few others much less capitalised or similarily capitalised. So you are not afraid they can/will take the security to the moon or ZEORO and make you bankrupt in one day.


Now you and your few friends gang up on the stoack and put bids from different machines and all of a sudden fellow traders "SEE" that.

What do you think happens they start buying, but before you and bodies put the deception in, you will buy some for sure.

Now Market "saw" the bids and prices go higher and your bodies start selling.

Now, faster computers help, but this is how stocks were run up and down in the days of Jessey Livermore ( reminiscense of speculator ) or some such book, you can look up.


Ok, now, if you can do that with some screwy stocks, why GS can not do it with indices.

Why not, As I said they are the inside information, they do not need to watch anybody. They just have to do it , due to their share size...

Now, Even with my broken English, this should be clearer. If not please dear reader go read the book I mentioned.

In any case.

I am hear to teach you honest, direct ways of doing things right, wihtout the need to fifht likes of GS( you can not) believe me.

As to why GS is allowed to become so big, well ask "them" they made if bigger by killing/bankrupting the entire competition.

So, I agree with REGULATION thing there.

Ok, next issue

Good Trading all

boris said...

By the way runing up the stocks by ganging is

ILLEGAL,

NOw, from the best I know it would not illegal, if one huge organisation simply acts like a different entity and/or feeds the orders from many different machines and or different exchanges and/or takes advantage of the arbitrage available on different exachanges.

I, would never call on anybody to break the laws. Unfortunately for some too big to be above the law firms it is legal, what may look illegal for individuals ganging together.

Good Trading Dear Readers

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....Those who have the gold make the rules...They don't call them Gold Men for nothin' :-)

boris said...

I guess so, Dear Xerxes
But seriously, if I was backstopped by FED with monopoly money, I can make money too.

GOod Trading Dear Xerxes