Sunday, August 16, 2009

AP triumph

994.34 998.82 1006.08 1015.13 spx 975.44 970.96 963.70 954.65

Dear Reader, We present here One of the clearest and pretty abundant examples of AP ( Attraction Point) confluences. I have discovered this method about 5 years ago. I am as excited as I was first time. I can never get over the beauty and usefulness of this concept in the market and especially when it is practiced in the confluence form, just like below.

60 comments:

boris said...

jimww said...
Dear boris great comment on the yen , it makes sense now why the s&p did not show any fear. Thank you and have a nice week end.

8/14/2009 3:44 PM


boris said...
Dear Jim,
Thanks.

Good Tradiang Dear Friend

8/14/2009 4:03 PM


xerxes said...
Maybe this is a bit long but revealing, to me anyways...I purloined this from an article posted this weekend on lewrockwell.com:

Furthermore, I drew up the following scenario over 30 years ago and no one had the courage to repeat it. "Three men were born in the U.S. on the same day. One was Caucasian, one was Hispanic, and the third was Black. They all had similar jobs during their working life and hence paid maximum into the Social Security scheme. They all achieved retirement age and drew their first SS check. But, one month later the Black man died. It is a statistical fact that Blacks don’t live as long as Hispanics and Caucasians. You can pass all the laws you want to and you can’t change that fact!

The next month the Black man’s widow died. How many times have you heard reports of one spouse dying and the surviving spouse dies shortly thereafter? I read an extensive study lately about the effects of loneliness on longevity. It is real! What happened to all the money the Black man paid into SS all of his working life? The fact is, it doesn’t exist! That money has already been spent by the US government and worthless IOUs are put into a file in a cave in West Virginia. There is no money in the SS Trust Fund!

The following month the Hispanic man dies – and the month after that his widow dies. What happened to all the money he put into SS? Same thing – it doesn’t exist!

The net result of the foregoing is that the money the Black man and the Hispanic man paid into SS goes to sustain the Ponzi scheme for a few more years for the benefit of the White man’s widow – because they outlive the White men. Please tell me how long that scheme will last when everyone catches onto this fact! This is totally unfair and is a sterling example of the Law of Unintended Consequences that is the hallmark of every government program.

8/15/2009 11:02 PM


boris said...
There is no doubt that there are many such

UNINTENDED

Consequences in our lives today.
And these will grow even more as government takes more more of our freedoms

GOod Trading Dear Xerxes

8/16/2009 1:21 AM


boris said...
Dear John,
Send us this info

Chicago Closed( see link in previous post).

Yes, that can happen!

Thanks Dear John,

GOod Trading My Dear Friend

8/16/2009 2:32 AM

John said...

Boris,

I watched it live- two years ago I would not have known. Friday- saw it coming.

old john

boris said...

Dear John,
I understand perfectly,
Even me it took some time to see the confluences and that took the simulateous watch to begin with, because, if one is not watching grapsh or numbers, one cannot "SEE" that is for sure.

Even This Friday, I was a bit late noticing the entire thing, because , frankly ,

I DID NOT EXPECTE IT

But martkes will always do the least expected. I guess, we are condemned to be watchfu or suffer(:-

It does take some elementary relationship understaing of assets, and that is why we are here commetning almost daily on matters relation/correlation and that makes the ability to "SEE" confluence develop and grow.

Of course for too many people daily staff does not matter. And Annual APS happen so not very often.

But anybody trading markets without AP confluence watching. I pitty them.

Good Trading Dear Friend John

John said...

Boris,

The beauty of the 5 minute APs-- just have to be disciplined if you are trading. Have to watch the index ( for me either spy or qqqq) and simultaneously watch the currencies. I am an old paper and pencil guy so I write down the APs- post them next to currency computer( very old lap top) and away I go. Probably not very sophisticated but I do ok. Also, always a quick scan to see where 5- hourly- daily may meet-
old john

boris said...

Dear John,
It is obvious that in a lopsided move like yesterday the 5 minutes become very important, because, that lopsided fast move down is what is captured by the volatitlity component of the AP calculator. And that often may be outside of the range Hourlies which did not capture the same!!!!!!!!!

Interesting ha. That is really interesting.

So Yes, 5 minutes may become very important to watch in fast(er) markets.

As far as the visual perception, you know, blind have the best hearing, because they need to...

The same may well be true , with people who are not visually/graphically used or adapt to looking at things ( i feel fortunate to be good both ways, but prefer charts) and maybe more adept to remembering numbers and relationships, while looking at them on the paper.

I can believe that. It is truly just numbers game. However one percieves those numbers.

Thanks Dear Friend John

xerxes said...

Seems to me Dear Boris that we are now correcting the move from 870 to 1020 before an impulsive move to, only dear Boris knows, how high (1100-1400?) :-) EURUSD rallied around 6 cents during that 870-1020 spx move and already has done a 50% retrace....Will it decline a bit more Dear Boris? And don't forget about the aussie Dear Boris :-)

John said...

Boris,

Having two glasses of red wine, almost a ritual. I see the good old euro is not doing well.

old john

John said...

Boris,

Having two glasses of red wine, almost a ritual. I see the good old euro is not doing well.

old john

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Good morning...Your cable AP's seem a bit strange

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
What makes you think so.

It looks ok to me

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

2nd low daily is bigger than 1st low hourly dear boris

boris said...

There is nothing wrong with that Dear Xerxes,

That happens when the day begins with volatile moves like today.

Numbers are correct.

There is no requirement for dailies to be bigger than hourlyies, just like there is no requirement that 5 minutes to be less than hourlies.

EVEN THOUGH , most of the time that is CORRECT!

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

okay dear boris....futures weak

xerxes said...

loonie hit 5th hourly already dear boris...is the buck gonna rout them again...

xerxes said...

huge gap between 2nd and 3rd hourlies on EURUSD Dear Boris...
an omen?

xerxes said...

freefall across the board dear boris...should i step up to the plate and halt the carnage dear boris a la jpmorgan ;-)

xerxes said...

V bottom here formed inverted H&S

xerxes said...

We've retraced about 24% of the move from 870 to 1019

xerxes said...

I guess that inverted H&S was a failure

xerxes said...

soon, dear boris, they may be trading quids at the 4th daily low and the boys in nyc are still asleep :-)

xerxes said...

984.30 boommm

xerxes said...

concern about growth in china and japan have investors saying no to risky assets dear boris...

stocks falling around the world...msci biggest drop in 5 months...

investors appetitie for safety of government debt rising...

xerxes said...

footsie has 1, the cac zero and the dax has only 2 stocks in the green...

gloom and doom is here dear boris

xerxes said...

materials and miners leading the declines of commodity selloffs

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Thanks for updates.

GOod Trading Dear Friend

xerxes said...

Dear Boris H&S on 15 min EURUSD has 1.40 minimum target

H&S on hourly quids has target of 1.57ish....

carnage dear boris carnage

xerxes said...

still no bottom dear boris...next stop is a 3 handle on eurusd

xerxes said...

must have hit 2nd daily on emini

xerxes said...

pitiful bounces off ap's dear boris...frustrating

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
I would not get to excited until EMINI hits the second daily and you know where that is.

It was not hit yet.

I am thinkin as Asset allocator now.

THis is not EXACTLY a short term thinking even though it may work out in short term

GOod Trading Dear Xerxes

boris said...

Sorty Dear Xerxes,
YOur terminology is more correct.

IT is the third that we need to meet on EMINI the second was hit already. Correct

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

looks like some kind of basing is taking place with s&p dear boris...could be a plateau before another plunge

xerxes said...

we hit 3rd daily low dear boris on emini

boris said...

I need a test and support Dear Xerxes

GOod Trading Dear Xerxes

boris said...

Ok, bought the portion I sold at 1013.

On the test of the third

xerxes said...

what does that mean dear boris..

xerxes said...

retesting eurusd lows....4 pip bounce

xerxes said...

gs says, recesssion is ending and no double dip expected

xerxes said...

Looks like doomsday for the euro dear boris....gold past 3rd daily and is approaching its last significant low at 924

boris said...

Well,
Somebody here said that Metals will suffer first.

Who was that man?

Good Trading Deaer Xerxes

John said...

Boris,

will GDX hold 35-36

???

old john

boris said...

Dear John,
I do not see much reason for GDX to hold that level when it gets there, pattern wise it should continue.

Now, for a very short time, it perhaps will hold.

Thanks My Very Dear Friend

boris said...

Now, one of the good reasons could be our asset indicator to show BUY around that area, but just chart wise, I do not see really good reason for GDX to stop there.
Dear John Good Trading Dear Friend

John said...

Boris

thanx- my favorite way to play gold.

old john

I was looking at asset allocator

boris said...

Yes, Dear JOhn,
A desirable event will be another reading above 80 by Yellow oscillator with a simultaneous or follow up by the Green oscillator making a distint appearence above the Pink and brown oscillators.

That would a nice signal to nibble or do more depending on where we are at that time

GOod Trading My Very Dear Friend John

boris said...

Msg At Dot Net
Good Trading Dear Subscribers

xerxes said...

Are we basing dear boris or getting ready to jump off a cliff...Long live obamabucks!

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
I do not know the answer to that question, but I am comfortable the way I am invested.

Basing and timing are addressed in the Timing section of the DotNet and the EUROPROJ3 I gave subscribers.

On a temporary basis , I really do not know.

GOod Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

the loonie seems to signal that the worst is over for antidollar dear boris, at least to my thinking....so maybe eurusd looked into the abyss and pulled back

xerxes said...

bloomberg spent all day babbling about the 'worldwide equity sell off'...was nauseating to hear that phrase every 5 minutes....then they have one shmuck after another saying how it was obvious that a retrace would happen now because of coupon repatriation to japan along with china having took a dump last week; that it had to hit the usa and europe...funny how everybody is so prescient, ex post dear boris.... they should first 'show me the money' then they can talk :-)

Mike Truong said...

Dear Xerxes,

Loonie tends to peak early in the NY session then pulling back. If indeed what Boris wrote on dotnet will come to pass then we may see loonie losing more to USD which implied that antidollar may have a bit more to drop yet...I took a short on USDCAD at the first DHAP with a trigger to close the trade if we reach the 5 hourly. I don't think we will so I am also trailing the stops at 30 pips. I may tightened the stops at the close and leading into Asian session.

Mike

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Dear Michael,
Dear John
Thanks for nice posting.

ENjoy the Evenying
GOod Trading Dear Freinds, all subscribers and readers

xerxes said...

Thanks for the tip on the loonie Dear Mike...

xerxes said...

Good Morning Dear Boris

boris said...

Good Morning Dear Xerxes
Good Trading Dear Friend

xerxes said...

So today Dear Boris i'm wondering about adding more core euro...i'm thinking that the buck has some more to rally....maybe we get back to a 3 handle...then i figure that whatever high the dollar makes will be the best level to sell them at for quite a while....

boris said...

Dear Xerxes, Your thinking is good, You maybe few hours/days off, though, I never know, anyway.

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

2 sets of emini ap's today dear boris...which do you prefer :-)

boris said...

One Glass too many(:-
Dear Friend Xerxes

boris said...

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