Thursday, July 02, 2009

Looking ahead for rude awakening?

Levels , we thought the market would rally to,, have been reached, from here on, if the market rallies higher then it would display a formidable strength, which needs a new respect and evaluation of possibilities, but it looks to us like the weakness is setting in into the market and price break below 900 could be a rude awakening for bulls

40 comments:

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Good morning!
I hope that your move is going/has gone very well.
Thanks and good trading.

Bert

xerxes said...

Good Afternoon Dear Boris....Antidollar took a bit of a drubbing, so far today with EURUSD close to 3rd hourly low... Have equities commenced on C down of B down of B up :-) Dow and S&P have H&S's with downside targets 10% lower from here...That would suggest a big move down in EURUSD which seems unlikely...But Texas Tea could move down to resistance at 65 which could bring EURUSD down towards 1.37 or so

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....Tricky said today that he sees broad balance in EZ economy and expects improvement by mid 2010 with only minimal deterioration going forward....He doesn't think he needs to do much more....This should support EURUSD and it has popped 31 pips off its low of 1.4015

boris said...

Dear Bert,
Thanks and Very good trading to you
My Very Dear Friend.
I am getting slowly back up(:-

Good Trading Dear Bert

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Oil down 2 bucks and gold down 12 and EURUSD down 100 pips...Wave C down for equities has commenced, to complete by turn date? :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
All of this is, to keep the currencies in a

B R A
C K E T
And If you see our Dollar Projection You knew this way before it happened and you know, when it is likely to end.

Thanks for the comments

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

boris said...

5 mInute data
was updated
Good Trading Dear John

boris said...

i DID NOT LIKE TO BE profetic today. Frankly I did not know we could go below 900, but I knew once we killed the support bracket everything was possible.

So, what else.

Yes, here is what else
First we were freaks suggesting 10 year will go high in yields then we were freaks when we suggested that 4% was top ( even our Dear Subscribers, who are accustomed to wizardry,were thinking did Boris finally flipped?(:- .

Yes, we are not wizards, but we do things nobody does, so call whatever you like

Good Trading Dear Readers

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....My interpretation of the tools you provided along with a little EW :-) suggests that the future is now (Monday perhaps) and I'll be singing 'Na Na Hey Hey Kiss Him [USD] Goodbye' Helllloooo Euro, real soon :-)

John said...

Boris,

Got it- thanx.

Interesting with turn dates-

old john

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...It's uncanny how your work delivers so precisely...I thought Tricky's conference was somewhat supportive of the single currency, and it was to a degree, having tweezered at 1.4015 and bouncing to mid 60's....But that could have been a reaction bounce off your AP :-) I suspect that we get to first or 2nd daily by end of tomorrow's European session, maybe third if you will make a couple calls :-)

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

It is interesting that we got the Golden Cross on the SPX last week to now be testing the 200 for support. If we test it and successfully held several times, it will make the bulls case stronger. If not we are in for a long summer for the bulls.

Good trading dear friend,

Mike

boris said...

Dear Michael,
Thanks for you always thought provoking comments/questions
Good Trading My Very Dear Friend

John said...

Boris,

I had to be nimble because of the turn dates but did ok. Probably tried to make it more complex than what i said.

thanx again

old john

boris said...

Recent stock allocation at 106 or so was hit, so we should be out , the second one at 995 is still alive

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear John,
I can trust you being nimble and patient.

You see , Dear John,
Maybe policemen/former policeman are a good future traders , ha?

Good Trading Dear Joh(:-

John said...

Boris,

Former is much better. It is dangerous out there now, manpower dwindling, morale shot, many problems that people do not think of when the economy busts.
Futures? No way- have trouble doing what I do.
FYI- housing is getting worse out here- a huge flood of homes being foreclosed or short sales. What I would consider mid to higher level type homes. ( not for a retired policeman) Was at auto dealer yesterday for service, bumped into salesman who is doing ok I guess.
Older guy, conservative with money- just bought a house for 385,000- not quite finished- an acre of land- 5 bedrooms,etc.--last selling price was 1.1 million. now that is a price reduction.

boris said...

Dear John,
I agree with you.
I spoke incorrectly about futures instead of FUTURE(:- trader.

I appreciate you reporting on the latest about housing in USArizona these days.

Good Trading Dear John
Always informative never deviating too much from a straight line.
That is why we love you Dear John

xerxes said...

(Bloomberg) -- China hopes that the dollar’s exchange rate will “remain stable” as the world’s international reserve currency, Vice Foreign Minister He Yafei told reporters in Beijing.

With a couple trillion to unload, they sure do need things to be stable Dear Boris....

John said...

Boris,

My realtor and every realtor I talk to out here still talks "investment". They do not get it, try to talk to them about Japan and this just dismiss me as a stupid retired guy.
I am looking for a place to live not invest. Like I said, I would rent but wife will not allow it.
That "flipping" attitude has still not changed so I do not think the bottom has been found
old john

boris said...

Dear John,
Yes, Investment, now the government is doing it for us, like AIG, GM, etc.

If you do not invest , we will invest for you deal(:-

I agree, the average American is not aware of Japanese experience.

So, why should they believe that real eastate is not an investment.

Good Trading Dear John

boris said...

Dear Xerxes, do not you think the Chinese are talking to much about Dollar lately. they have mastered the the art of speculation ( sorry I a meant manipulation(:- )

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

Vishal said...

Dear John and Boris, exactly why I keep delaying purchasing a home even though I can afford to buy, prices have no where to go but lower with all the "bullish" crap that folks are spewing out here.

Single (so far) so no rush.....will try to be as patient as you John, gotta learn to.....

John said...

Vishal,

We have been out here since 6 jan- still no house. One deal that I walked away from and glad I did. I would be where I am now, next year if I were not married.

I have a low ball bid on a house now, if the bank accepts it, great if not. Many more to choose from. Drives the realtor nuts but I do not care
old john

xerxes said...

Dear John....You may want to consider this information for your home purchase.....

The 1,400-page cap-and-trade legislation pushed through by House Democrats contains a new federal policy that residential, commercial, and government buildings be retrofitted to increase energy efficiency, leaving it up to the states to figure out exactly how to do that.

This means that homeowners, for example, could be required to retrofit their homes to meet federal “green” guidelines in order to sell their homes, if the cap-and-trade bill becomes law.

boris said...

Dear John,
Dear Vishal,
It is hard, even for me(:-, to time the housing market.

This is not a market, this a gov controlled boondogle, more so than any other market.

Housing is a way for SOPITALISTS to inslave people , often voluntarily.

All I can say is that if our call for lower interest rates, which almost to me sounded unebelievable when I made it, continue and we get big(er) drop in interest rates, we could have some revival in the housing in not too distant future. Now, that is not a call for a bottom. Like John says, it is 20 years nonstop that Japanese real estate is falling, so I am not dillusional about prospects for real estate, but if gov is succesful in reflation, we could have bouts of surges in real estate prices.

Good Trading Dear Friends
John,Vishal

xerxes said...

I think Cap and Trade is a done deal as Goldman Sachs is behind it...they own large holdings in the Chicago Merc and the CME has a sulfur contract ready for trade....

xerxes said...

Those damn AP's Dear Boris are tightly clustered, blocking the buck's ascent :-)

Vishal said...

Dear Boris and John, for me I want to buy outright, dont want the mortgage.

I did the math several times, it makes sense to rent unless, like John says....the bank accepts a SUPER-LOW-BALL bid, so that u can cover the unrealistic taxes and association fees for many years to come.

Even if association fees are covered for years or are reasonable, there is always nasty surprises with ASSESSMENTS these days, since you have to pay for those who cannot.

You save money renting, and you are more flexible, plus u can use the money in the meantime.....now if I do get married (chances have gone up very recently) and have a kid, that may get me a little more motivated (just a teensy weensy bit more), lol.

I think it will be a looooong time b4 I buy.

John said...

Vishal,

Different situations. If there any women monitoring this board they may not appreciate this_ a man seems to need less than a woman to survive happily and contented. Just seems that way to me

old john

Vishal said...

Im also looking at single family homes (SFH), and I just cannot afford to buy them outright, compared to a similarly sized townhome here in south florida, plus Ive never done math/research for how much it costs to maintain a 3-bedroom SFH....so I dont know.....maybe one of you who have done some math can educate me, appreciate it.

Just to give an example, I recently seriously considered 2 different similarly sized townhomes in the 120-140 range, a similar SFH with same living area has an asking price in low 200s. Im not counting the small front and back yards, that are too small to be of any use to me. Also the townhomes are in much nicer neighbourhoods than the SFH.

The Townhomes have an association fee of 300/month with possibility of assessments now that more and more folks are defaulting, the SFH does not have any such fee but I dont know what are resonable costs I should assume.

Also the townhomes are much newer (2005-2007), the SFH are generally 15-20 years older, unless you want to go the newere more expensive neighbourhoods.

Vishal said...

Dear John, I have always SINCERELY believed that we men need women more than they need us.

But when it comes to finances, I think women need us to be a little forceful, else they can lead us to financial difficulties, if not ruin. If I had followed my ex-wife's advice, we would be $200K in the never ending BLACK-hole that is a mortgage contract signed in 2006. Instead we are in the positive even after paying rent for the last 3 years.....

And that was just one financial decision, there were several other financial decisions that affected our life negatively, I let them go because I loved her, and Im not always a money-minded person, but the big black-holes Im definitely going to avoid.....

John said...

Vishal,

I would not buy anything that has a HOA fee that comes with it. Just the way I am. Either I do the chores or I hire someone to do it. I have control. Wife and I differ over this also.

old john

Vishal said...

Dear John, what are reasonable costs to upkeep a SFH, if you are not good with tools/mechanical stuff ? Any idea ?

John said...

Vishal,

I really do not know. I am not handy myself and when I was working ( 60 hrs a week) I did not have time so I usually hired someone- I just feel more in control - also, what happens if the HOA runs out of money??? Do they forgo insurance on the pool? Then are the homeowners liable? What do they stop paying or how high can rates go??
I trust myself more.

old john

Mike Truong said...

HI Vishal,

I have owned 2 SFH, both with HOA but the rule of thumb is about 10% of payment for yearly upkeep. Of course with less expensive/more expensive houses the percentage can vary. In general though you should save about 10% of the payment for upkeep and repairs. Insurance for you in FL is probably $1000/year right? That is probably 1/2 to 3/4 monthly house payment. Then you have taxes. I do not know the tax rate in FL but I presumed it is probably about 3000 to 4000 for a 200K SFH. That should come out to about 1.5 to 2.5 times the monthly payment. SO that should cover your P(rincipal) I(nterest) T(axes) I(nsurance).

Good trading dear friend,

Michael

Vishal said...

Thanks for your thoughts, John and Michael. Like i said, i plan to rent for a loooooong time, lol :)

Mike Truong said...

Hi Vishal,

Also if I was to buy again in the distant future, I would hunt around for a 1950-1970 house as they were built better then. I would have to update the plumbing and heating/cooling but in general, much better material were used. Nowaday almost all the new houses (tract houses - not custom) use very cheap material. Also there is not a lot of pride in workmanship anymore. Take an old house, take it down to a structural level, then remodel it to your liking. About the only thing good in the new houses is the foundation and maybe the insulation.

Good trading dear friend,

Michael

John said...

Mike,

You mean when Americans actually took pride in their craftsmanship? Like he cars up until about 1970 or so>?

old john

Mike Truong said...

Dear John,

I don not know cars but have always been fond of the ways car (pre-1970s) looked and drive. I believed that the feminization of the car (rounded shapes, extensive use of plastics, and mundane drivability) have been a disaster.

Good trading dear friend,

Michael