Friday, July 03, 2009

getting the systems up


Of, course, lot of people could have substituted EURO or CHF for SHEKEL in this chart and there would only be slight difference. That is how predictive this chart has been. So the Predictive precision of unheard dimentions and accuracy over couple years continues. Incredible indeed. If you asked me two years ago, if I could be so precise, I would have told yu no way! In fact, I can tell you the same thing today(:-




Dear Readers, getting all the systems back up, after the move. Thank you for your patience. We did achieve what we thought would happen though. Simply patiently waiting for the July 3 and 930 for the turn and got it. Updates later. Good Trading

73 comments:

xerxes said...

Good morning Dear Boris

boris said...

Good Morning Dear Xerxes
Sorry,

Slow day for you(:-

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

Why 'sorry' Dear Boris?

xerxes said...

With all these rapid fire turn dates, Dear Boris, how is one supposed to know if, next one, we're going up or down :-)

John said...

Boris,

Are you still near the sea?

old john

boris said...

Dear John,
I am at the see,
I can almost jump into water from my 18th floor apartement(:-

I will place a picture later on. The view is magnificent.

I was lucky to catch this place , at right time as the prices were sagging under the threath of worldwide depression.

Of course, the mood is better now and the rents would be about 10-15% higher if I did not catch at the ritght price of amazing 1200/month bucks!

Good Trading Dear John

boris said...

Sorry,
I could not respond fast(:-

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

John said...

Boris,

You are like me, patiently waiting to jump on a deal.
That is great for you and your family
Still waiting patiently- I was just on the real estate site, more mid-level homes came up in foreclosure this week.

old john

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

Can I ask you about your short term (1 month or less) view of the USD in the dotnet site?

Thanks and good trading dear friend,

Michael

boris said...

Dear John,
I admit,

You thought me patience
I thought you markets

Good Dear For both of us(:-

Good Trading Dear John

boris said...

Dear Michael,
I send you email
Please look at the info

GOod Trading Dear Michael

boris said...

I have send the dollar projection into SEPTEMBER, even to those who did not subscribe to one year Service.

I am doing it only one time
and will not repeate it.

ENjoy Dear Subscribers

John said...

Boris,

Thanx for the dollar predictions, gives me a nice look at stock market if the correlation holds true

old john

boris said...

Dear John,
Between the YBR/WBR and Dollar Prediction and SEEFUTURE, the truth of kind or the other always comes out.

It is true, sometimes they are pointing in different directions, but that is a good information too , indicating too much uncertainty or trading range or something else.

Information is power.
That is what I try to produce.
Frankly, it was due to the Dollar chart that I wrote number of options in currencies granting the rights for moves up or down, but as it has been shown clearly , in confromance with our projections, the trading range prevailed and all those options I wrote expired worthless. Giving me the premiums as income.

That is what I call the

POWER of information

Good Trading Dear John

Phil said...

Hope someone can explain this to me. Thursday's economic numbers were not good for the US. I would have expected the USD to fall but it did not, it went up. The USD/JPY pair fell telling me that JPY went up relatively more than the USD. Why would it do this?
Thanks

John said...

Phil,

Boris can answer you much better than I.

I will put it in a layman's terms- It ain't legit.


old john

boris said...

Dear Phil,

On a given Day, my beloves Pitssburg Steelers can lose to any mediocre team...

But at the end they become champions, why is that?

Exactly for the same reasons.

Fundamentasl ( economic news for dollar and stats for STEELERS) may indicate one thing, but on a given day balance in the markets can be such that fundamentals are put away and market does what it wants to do on that day. Especially that would be true if the markets are shallow( low volume).

So, in the context of the fundamentals day or week and often years are powerless. At the same time this dilly-dully BS going in currency, where nobody knows what the next day brings but noting is moving anywhere fast, was well telegraphed by Our Dollar Projection which shows congestion area for a while.

So, combination of summer dolldrums and the general inability of the market go always comply with fundamentals conspire to give us the result we are getting. On the other hand there may well be a message here... Dollar may want to go to the stronger side of the trading range regardless whatever BS comes out in the news(:- !

News, also are past and extrapolating them into future is how the billions are lost often.

So, while we have somethings to hang on, basic answer to your question is that on a given day only APS and their interaction with FIBOS can be trusted, fudamentals are meaningless if the market is not expecting to take them and run with them.

Good Trading Dear Phil and Dear John

boris said...

Dear Phil,
In a shorter version of what I saidy above, i can add this...

The news you are looking at, have been discounted by the market a while ago!

Good Trading Dear Phil

daveo said...

Hello Dear Boris, I did not receive the dollar projection, I also have not been receiving the daily emini charts. Congrats on your move. Daveo

boris said...

Dear Dave,
Thanks,
I have not send Emini last couple days as I was moving.

are you saying that you did never receive the emini charts?

Wow! that is a shame.
How come you did not alert me before?

That is bad

That is stupid, you email is misspelled in the bulk emailer list with .comd at the end instead of .com.

GOd help me...

How come you did not alert me?

I am correcting the problem and sending you info.

Sorry about all of this.

Good Trading My very Dear and Patient friend Dave

John said...

Boris

sent you an email about GS

old john

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...I read that the selloff on Thursday was the worst pre-independence day selloff ever...And you called it :-)

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

Thanks for your help on my question on the dollar. I really appreaciate it.

Good trading dear friend,

Michael

PS. Do you find it somewhat odd that the currencies perceived to be weakest tend to rally hardest? For example, all during 2007 to mid 2008, all we heard was the upcoming demise of the US dollars, but yet we had a huge rally. Then in early 2009 we keep hearing about EUR and GBP as being very weak yet they rallied quite nicely. The currency du jour seems to be beat up the USD and buy AUD and NZD which to me seems to signal some kind of tops for these currencies. Meanwhile JPY seems to have fallen off the map as no one is talking about it anymore. Could be some kind of rally coming for JPY...?

Good trading dear friend

xerxes said...

Black gold up almost 1% in early trade Dear Boris...

daveo said...

Dear Boris, No problem my friend. I must swing trade. I have no time for day trading, but would love to do so one day. Sometimes I get a chance to look intraday, but not alway. Currently looking at third consecutive winner on short trades. Thanks to you. Would be 6 straight if I could go long. Daveo

boris said...

Dear Michael,
Your observations are very pertinent.

Banks and big institutions would love to get people involved in currencies.

THey think they have an edge and it does not look as compromised as stock market in ordinary peoples minds.

So, this , truly prostituted market is manipulated by the powers in the most disgusting manner.

Ok, the rest is known and you know how we are not taken by their lies.

GOod Trading Dear Michael

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Thanks My Very Dear Friend
We try

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear John,
Thanks

And Good Trading My Very Dear Friend

boris said...

Dear Dave
All the best my very Dear Friend

Good Trading to you

Mike Truong said...

Thank you dear boris.

I have to confess that although I caught the top of the downtrend fairly good (929) using PUTs on SPY, I exited way too early (net gain 15%, roughly at SPX 919) instead of holding on. I was afraid of possible games play by the Sopitalists to run everyone stops. Anyway looking forward to trying again.

PS. Boris, do you give much credence to "golden crosses" and "death crosses" in currencies? Also if MACD, and Stoch are falling but we are in the middle of a golden cross or vice versa (death cross with rising MACD and Stoch) do you think we are looking at potential rollover?

Thanks and good trading dear boris,

Michael

boris said...

Dear Michael,
It is clear that statistically speaking the GOLDEN crosses are to be given respect.

Only problem I have is using the word "statistically"

10 samples does not statistically significant sample make!

Good Trading Dear Michael

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

Thanks for your answer. Also when we are looking at APs, if we see that a certain hourly AP and a certain daily AP match up fairly well (ie within a few pips or points) are though potentially higher support/resistance areas than say just hourly APs alone?

Thanks dear friend,

Michael

boris said...

Dear John,
provided us with this

Is Goldman Getting Caught?

Well you judge
Thanks My very Dear Freind John
GOod Trading

boris said...

Dear Readers,
There is no love lost between me and Goldman Sacks and Wall Street In general.

I try to make money with my pattern capabilities. I can not compete with GOLDMAN or LEHMAN( OH lehman is dead now(:- ). In the speed of gathering data and automating them to take advantage of instant imbalances or general information in the markets. I can not know if Goldman and Others get special Info that nobody else get. For example the stop orders are not supposed to be visible until the market trades at those levels. ARE THEY INVISIBLE?

I do not know.

I can not trust NYSE and AMEX or NASDAQ ( remember Madoff was nasdaq chair before he started another PONZI(:- ).

The thruth is the trading should be a free enterprise.

The trading systems should be based on the Publicly based algorithms and the trading platforms themselves should be black boxes in terms of being able to access anything, but what public can access in general. It should be distributed in a way that nobody should be able to obtain an advantage to the bigger/faster communications networks, routers etc. leading to the trading core platforms. In that case the system

a) will be totally transparent and managed balck box, where even people managing the sytems will not be able to get any information that can be (mis)used
b) There should be no ability by anybody to take advantage of the faster and/or multiple communications systems to be used to gain advantage over other investors
c) The Trading systems provider should be a non profit organisation not a private or public corporation, so that no amount of ties, political or other can influence the decisions and operations of such trading systems( EXCHANGES).

This sort of a system , whcih I would call OPEN SOURCE TRADING SYSTEM is possible, but will mean death to GOLDMAN and its kinds and that is why it will not , unfortunately, happen.

Now take this from someone, that on the technical basis knows a lot more about programming,systems, communications and trading a lot more than many others who are trying to attack the problems of GOLDMAN type today.

Their attempts are welcome. Do not get me wrong.But I think though those are very, very inadequate and in the long run not workable.

Perhaps giving the public a way to beat the system by taking the profits out of it , is , eventually , better revnge than trying to defeat the enemy on its own turf. That means regulations, systems etc.


Good Trading Dear Reader and Sincere wish of success to all that try to get more transparency and clarity to the markets.

boris said...

Dear Michael,
What you are describing is what we call CONFLUENCE trading.

YOU BET!!!

THe confluence of the set of multi time frame APs and/or FIBOS and any other trading system events ( be it ROC/MACD/BOLLINGER etc) is what mekes the trader more confident in the trade to be just initiated!

Good Trading Dear Michael
PLEASE REMEMBER we REALY ARE

CONFLUENCE TRADERS

Mike Truong said...

thanks boris!!!

I have noticed that normally we have some decision/reversal at first hourly APs. If that bus doesn't stop there, usually it travel all the way to the 4th or 5th hourly or first daily AP. So in a sense, we can sit at the first hourly AP to see if the bus stop. If not we take the loss toll and wait for the 4th or 5th hourly to pay the toll again right? No sense in chasing the bus to every stations..:-) . Anyway I am still learning but i do truly enjoy this. Incidentally most of your APs seems to be around some major important pivots that I found on my own. Kinda nice to see confirmation that I am somewhat on the right track. Anyway my next challenge for myself is to trust your APs and my research and not second guess them. I must learn to pay the toll as minimally as possible and get the most distance for my travel. Thanks again for helping me learn how to trade and patience in trading...

Good trading dear friend,

Michael

boris said...

Dear Michael,
YOu are right the the first AP often can stop things, especially if it conflates with something else. Usually if first is penetrated it is likely that we could go at least 4th or 5th, but we do see turns at second and third sometimes. Again one must watch the confluence at those points to see if that gives them special strenght.

On of the great usages of APs is exactly how you desctibed it.

It is highly likely that on a given day marke(SPX) will hit one side of the 4th or higher.

That is saying that go with the trend when it is before first ( in hopes it will get to first and perhaps 5th(:- ) and if stopped do thing the other way.

You are practically guaranteed to see one of the 4ths on a given day.

That is a very, very powerful information.

Good Trading Dear Michael and
Yes, one must trust the points and take losses like a gentmmen if that what it comes to. But those losses should be tiny. The big loss at these points is indeed a

DECLARATION of MISTRUST of the points ability to turn the market.

Once trader made the mind that turn or through is occuring at this point the risk should be made small.

There is only two ways to do so.

Make a very close stop ( and get risk being stoopped out, because the position is big compared to traders capital).
Make a reasonably close stop, but still far because the position size is small and allows this.


As John, says

"stay small and stay in business"

The only question here is what is samll

For most/all purposes I call small 30-50 dollars.

That is it.

One just must adjust the size to make that happen.

Good Trading Dear Michael


Good t

xerxes said...

Good Morning Dear Boris...The euro seems to have been branded by Tefal today...

boris said...

Yes, sir,
for the Nth time the YBR/WBR are setting the turn points and directions with the SWATCH precision(:-

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

STRONG DOLLAR MANTRA

European Central Bank Jean-Claude Trichet said it was important that the United States stayed committed to a strong currency.

"On this issue, I am very, very clear. I have just one message ... It is extremely important that the United States of America ... has been ...saying that a strong dollar is in the interests of the United States of America," Trichet said.

"I consider that extremely important and I welcome this declaration," he added.
-------
So when the WBR bottoms, Trichet will start talking up the Euro Dear Boris :-)

boris said...

Or Dear Xerxes,
He will let Chinese talk for him
Or perhaps Indians this time

Or better yet, Brazilians will talk, as the Russians are busy with hosting Dearest OBama

Good trading

xerxes said...

I find it funny Dear Boris, that there was this continuous drumbeat as to how the buck needed to be dethroned....Now it has been decided that to prevent the animal spirits from getting carried away, they jawbone EURUSD the other way....

John said...

Boris.

good morning

old john

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Yes, Yes,
You are learning and we are all learing and noticing manipulation.

The problem is that without the projection tools, pinpointing where the peak of the manipulation is , is very hard to predict.

Thankfully we can superimpose that BS on our time table of projected prices and have a reasonable chance of catching the tops of that

M A N I P U L A T I O N

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

boris said...

Dear John
GOod Morning
and Good Trading to you
My Very Dear Friend

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Without your exquisite tools it's a mug's game...

This from bloomberg...but we already knew this :-)

Deutsche Bank AG, which Euromoney Institutional Investor Plc ranks as last year’s biggest foreign-exchange trader, predicted in April that “extremely weak trends” among Group of 10 currencies in the previous six months “augers strong trends in the coming six months.”

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

There is an interesting observation I made today. All of last week NZD was much weaker than AUD but starting this week so far NZD is showing strength compare to AUD. I noticed something similiar in Late January to early March that NZD was weaker than AUD. During the recent 4 months rally, NZD was much stronger than AUD. Maybe we may be at a movement change although several hours of action does not make a trend. I'll keep a lookout on this relationship to see what develop.

Good trading dear Boris,

Michael

boris said...

Sorry, I was late to capture 5 min info
But we got it now

Good Trading all ANd Dear John
Especially

boris said...

This was one of those perfect cases where the First IHAP ( intraday hourly Attraction Point) was just below the Value area and market ran up from the ILAP this morning to IHAP ( both first).
and then, now turned down.

Dear Michaels post from this morning is a perfect prophecy for this kind of move in the markets.

Incredible indeed

Good Trading Dear Rreaders

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,

Yeah, RIGHT!

GOod Trading Dear Xerxes

boris said...

Please see the image at the front page of these comment at borisc.blogspot.com for what I described above.

Perfection does exist in trading and do not let anybody tell you otherwise.
You may not get it everyday, but here and now you see and example of it

GOod Trading Dear Readers

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...You mentioned what was required to reverse the weekly trend in EURUSD but you didn't mention what was required to reverse the monthly trend :-)

boris said...

Do Some people remember I termed GOLDMANS prediction of 86 Dollar/Barrel OIL as BS?

OK then tat was when OIL was at 72, now it is at 64 and I would say that OIL may get to 86 or even 100, but secret is that it will have to through minimum of 59 before.

How about giving a bit more to fellow citizens instead of BS GOLDMAN does, which is a pure MANIPULATION. Did YOu ask who was selling at 76?
Well, please do.

GOod Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....Have you noticed how the Dax and the nikk are putting on the finishing touches to the right shoulder of a H&S top that has a huge drop potential.....Maybe DB is correct when they see EURUSD as a teenager in heat :-)

boris said...

Yes, Dear Xerxes
I do notice that and I see it almost on all major indices.
Is not it?
Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Is there any rule as to gow long EURUSD can stick to one of those damn AP's :-)

xerxes said...

Yes, Dear Boris, those H&S's are everywhere....The downside target for the DAX is about zero..So does that mean GS is up to some trick or is it TEOTWAWKI :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,

That all depends on how
A T R A C T I V E
The Attraction Point is(:-

GOod Trading Dear Xerxes

John said...

Boris,

5 minutes were fine, a little patience on my part. On the phone with someone laughing about the most political law enforcement unit in the whole USA- the FBI. All the bs TV shows to make them look good - just look how they jumped through hoops for good old GS

old john

rfhjr said...

I think to be a good trader you have to think like a criminal because in dealing with Goldman and the like that is how they operate. The only good thing about it; is at least by thinking this way you can anticipate their next move. Goldman reports earnings on 07/14/09 and it should be a good number through all the manipulation they have overseen this past quarter.

boris said...

Dear JOhn,
Dear Rfhjr,

There is now doubt the views you both express are considering the GS entity from the point of view of the law and adharence or the lack of it in GS case.

I cannot disagree for the need thinking like a criminal and/or the law protector ( POLICE FBI, CIA) agency. It is helpful in all situations and especially in the markets.

All we do here is help that process by our AP and other methods

GOod Trading Dear John and rfhjr

John said...

Boris,

you are right- think like they do

old john

xerxes said...

Does anybody know how to get rid of a groundhog family? Bit off topic :-)

Klaatu said...

XERES-
Re:Groundhogs..you might try sprinkling mothballs around.
Or you could hire Bill Murray (Caddyshack) :-))

Good trading,
Klaatu

rfhjr said...

If you know someone who has a Jack Russell Terrier you may invite them over. But sometimes dogs won't work on running a Groundhog off. Other options would be a live cage trap or electric fence, the cattle type, just to make sure they get the point when they touch it. They can be difficult to trap. I usually leave the trap open a couple of days to get the groundhog used to eating out of it. Then I set it to close once they are comfortable around the cage. Just make sure the trap is set up in their traffic area. Final option as always is a shotgun with a cold beer and a lawn chair.

boris said...

Dear Klaatu,
Welcome Back, my Very Dear Friend
If anybody would know this groundhog thing(:-

Good To hear you Dear Klaatu

boris said...

Dear Rfhjr
Thanks My Dear Friend

Good Trading

Klaatu said...

Thanks Boris-
Feeling much better..and working hard..
Good trading to all...

John said...

Klaatu,

I second the welcome back, hope all is well

old john

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

I hope you have a good night sleep. Currencies were interesting today...I wondered if this is what "we" think it is or is it more trickery being played...Good trading dear Boris,

Michael

xerxes said...

Dear Klaatu...Thank you for your kind input...I called Bill's cell but I got voicemail :-)

Dear rfhjr...Thank you for all your kind recommendations...

(1) Jack Russell Terrier ... good idea especially if I knew where they play flyball ....
(2) Live cage trap or electric fence, the cattle type ... I could use one for my daughter's boyfriends...
(3) A shotgun with a cold beer and a lawn chair.

I like the last one but I thought that pouring cloudy ammonia down the burrow was an easier and darn more humane idea but wasn't sure it would be as effective as option #3 :-)

Klaatu said...

Dear John,
Thanks for the well wishes.
I had a relapse on a reaction from an antibiotic I took in May2004. It turns out they give it to cattle,chickens,turkeys and farm fed fish. As I felt better I imbibed and I paid for it.They give it to animals in strengths as much as 50x humans. So starting in the new year I became cognitive dysfunctional.."brain fog".Seldom sleep more than 2-3 hrs straight. The major symptom for other people has been tendon problems..particularly the rupture of the Achilles tendon. I never had any problems..now I have foot and hand problems..but my brain is clearer most days. The first class action suit against the drug(LEVAQUIN) maker,
JOHNSON & JOHNSON WAS FILED on May13th. And now there are ads on local t.v. looking for victims to start more suits. The sister drug is CIPRO, by BAYER. It is the biggest selling antibiotic in the world.After a 91 year old man died from being given Levaquin, Mayo clinic issued a recommendation that
no one over 60 or under 20 be given this killer. Remember the Gulf War Syndrome..the drug of choice to fight antrax was Cipro. The symptoms are very similar to what I have. The Sopitalist drug companies and FDA bury everything.
PLEASE, my fellow antisopitalists, be careful of any antibitics you get..particularly for older folks and children.
NICE TO BE BACK.LETS HAVE A GREAT TRADING WEEK..
Klaatu

xerxes said...

Good Morning Dear Boris....