Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Caution Bulls



954.08 955.14 956.85 959.00 spx 949.60 948.54 946.83 944.69
We have sold off some of our former purchases around this area. Which indicates where we stand. We would like to be cuatios at this time. End of Story for now.

39 comments:

boris said...

Stocks(EMINI) just hit the 5th on the ILAP.

Good Trading All

xerxes said...

Good Morning Dear Boris...No AP's today?

xerxes said...

Did we take out the June 11th highs Dear Boris?

boris said...

Good Monring Dear Xerxes,
We did take out the June 11 high

Good Trading Dear Friend Xerxes
APs are at DotNet

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Some guy, I think from Barclay's Capital, on Bloomberg, said, this morning, that sterling should drift down to 1.57ish vis-a-vis the buck...

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....If June 11th highs were surpassed, that would suggest that a move towards 1100 is very likely now...Would you agree with that statement?

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
I would like to buy when market is about to go up and sell when it stops going up.

So, I will wait for the time. As far as price? Let it go where it wants. We do have big picture with the levels and looking at them we can figure out what are the next possible levels.

Thanks Dear Friend Xerxes

xerxes said...

I would like to buy when market is about to go up and sell when it stops going up.........

Hard to argue with that statement Dear Boris :-)

John said...

Boris,

Good morning
old john

boris said...

Good Morning Dear John

Very good Trading to you
My Dear Friend

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Every single DOW stock that has reported, before today, has beaten estimates :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
That means estimates were lower than they should have been(:-

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

Exactly, Dear Boris....Got to have some reason to energize shares so why not lowball... :-)

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Will EURUSD make it to 1st low today? :-)

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Yesterday, Dear Ben told the world how he shorted the buck to the tune of 1/2 trillion so as to engineer an end to its ascent and engender its reversal...

So what will he say today?

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Good morning.
Good trading.
Good day.

Bert

boris said...

Dear Bert,
Good Trading to you and Good Morning
My Very Dear Friend Bert

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Dear Ben did not say it.

It was extracted out of him(:-

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

Yes Dear Boris, it was 'extracted' from him...But with the smirk on his face and the glee in his voice, he ranted on 'eem kaff' :-)

Mike Truong said...

I have been turning this thought in my head for awhile now. It is as if Obama has effectively declare an all out war on market decline in his simple but implicit uging of Americans to buy stocks back in March. At the time many people mocked him but he has been correct. What if we will not get any meaningful corrections for a while as now wall street has the implicit backing of the US government to continue to game the market higher? I am not saying market go up everyday, but this is starting to look like the game plan is to grow our way out of this depression is through mainpulating the psyche of the US public. Many of the professional bear funds are either sitting on their hands or have folded. The ship may be starting to be stacked on the bullish side but the US gov is using all its might to counter balance the other side.

Just my random thoughts. Good trading everyone

Michael

John said...

Mike,

Sure they are doing it. They have to in order to save the public pension funds. Do you think any POL would get reelected if you had no fire or police service? Not a chance in hell. Also, many of the public servants are nothing but extensions of the pols. Middle level types are put in there to run things, rewards , whatever.

old john

boris said...

Dear Michael,
You are not mistaken thinking the way you do, except , there are natural laws that at some point take over and right what looks wrong!

If for example the bears have died then there is no fuel for the market to go up because, for goldman to make money(on upside, as you suggest) somebeody must take the other side is not it. Somebody big at that.

Who is that if not bear funds.

So, 100% agree that government has and is doing all it can to pump the market as this is the main window , for Americans, into confidence for the future and spend into oblivion.

So, yes, market can be manipulated , often, for a long time ( agree) , but eventually it all crashes.

Best way I know how to mesure that is via my forecasting tools.

They are not without failure, but that is all I have and it seems to be working to considerable extent.

Good Trading Dear Michael,thanks for your thought

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....Antidollar is sizzlin' hot...Dear Ben is Dear Relic's best friend....EURUSD between 2nd and 3rd

Dear Uncle Ben is suggesting rationing of medical care.....

xerxes said...

Dear Uncle Ben also admonished these Senators to control health care spend as his banking buddies need a refill :-)

xerxes said...

Did we not make a new high in the S&P 500 Dear Boris...

xerxes said...

We started the march north on EURUSD to the 4th hourly Dear Boris...Is there any hope for dollar bulls?

xerxes said...

Rampaging antidollar bulls after Dear Ben left the hearing...Does that mean that Dear Ben is a USD support figure?

xerxes said...

We don't talk much about the JPY Dear Boris, especially EURJPY....Are we going to revisit the lows soon?

boris said...

Dear Xerxes
I need to do some fresh research on this pair, before I can say something intelligable(:-

So, let me take a look and respond sometime late today or tomorrow

GOod Trading Dear Xerxes,
Of the top of my head I prefer JPY over EURO for next few weeks

xerxes said...

Interesting, Dear Boris....The chart looked like JPY strength against the euro but strength in the yen would obviously be unwelcomed by the BOJ ,so I would think that it would be better to go long....

xerxes said...

Long EURJPY...

dimitry said...

I think,Dear Boris, we, probably, should return to older version of turn dates.

Mike Truong said...

Dear Xerxes,

I am on the other side of your bet. We have to do the unexpected sometimes. Remember in feb-mar when everyone was saying (including me) that brutish and euro were going to go to par. Well we have had huge rally in both and now all the talk is about dollar decline again. I don't doubt that but can everyone be on the same side of the trade and not tip the boat over? In that respect, the conventiional wisdom is for the BOJ to ease but I think we may test 89-90 range on usd/jpy again before we have the BOJ intervene.

Good trading dear friend,

Michael

boris said...

Dear Dmitry,
As the trading range got tight(er) it became more and more difficult to see the turnd dates.

Unfortunately that is what happens under these conditions.

Nevertheless, I must say that the essense of our call for such tight range in currencies last 5 weeks is , in my opinion, one of our best calls this year.

We can , hopefully simplify our turn dates, when the charts simplify themsleves(prediction charts I mean).

Thanks My Dear Friend DMitry

dimitry said...

Thank you, Boris for your respond.

xerxes said...

Dear Michael....I haven't placed any bets yet....Most of my trades are EURUSD, in case you haven't noticed :-) So I put in an S.O.S. to Dear Boris to get a glimpse, thru the thick fog, of the road ahead :-)
I'm bullish on the euro as I think equities and antidollar will continue to rally....I'm thinking that the JPY needs to decline against both the USD and Euro and will decline more against the latter...But maybe you're correct and I'm wrong so I stay out of yen trades until Boris gets off the hotline :-)

Mike Truong said...

Dear friends,

I think I am going to shutdown from trading for a while. The whipsaws and the blatant market manipulations (IMHO) are just too much for me to trade. I will check in with you guys occasionally but I will wait for normalcy to return to the market again. I don't have a big enough account to invest like dear boris advocates so I tried to make some trades that would give me enough profits to offset the trading costs but it is too hard to do so. Good luck to you all and I'll see you again in the future when I can feel like I see the trades correctly again.

Ciao all,

Michael

John said...

Mike,

take care of yourself, it is good to get away sometimes. by the the way, there is no normal market:)

old john

boris said...

Dear Michael,
Good Luck to you. It is normal for traders to go through the process you went through. Discipline and investment mentalisty is what is needed to stay in these markets, fortified with even more disciplined trading at asset changing times. I hope that you will, later, go more thoroughly true the actions you took and put together the clear picture where you strayed from needed discipline. I was subject to the same for years. We all are.

Frankly I have seen very few people that got it almost instantly and that is Dear John. Who , perhaps due to his life and professional expereiences, showed even me what real patience is.
Actually, I was still wilder couple years ago, when I started and his coolness ( even as he new much less than i did in trading) has stuck with me as well.

I honestly believe that any attempt to make money fast and very short trading is a road to disaster.
That is why we have posted the kind of articles we posted here.

Trading WIthoug ulcers and other warnings. We do not like our subscribers to lose money or get dissapointed, but it will happen nevertheless.

If I could not escape it for many years, I figure few people will be able to escape it.

On the other hand people with solid approach and patient views on the market will succeed. That is the kind of "grown up" , battle tested kind of investors that will suvive eventually and those are the kind we like to create.

It takes time.
As I said, it took me a lot of time.

It also comes, with age, easier as the "grown ups"( nicer word for older people(:- ), have a different attitude towards money and investment.

Dear Michael, Wish you all the best and as one word advice.
Please see the markets as a place where you try to make, grow your money. Not as a place where you cannot afford to let your societal views interfere with your decisions.

Please Understand, I was the same. I couldnot seperate market from my societal views and thought of it as an evil place, where I should/could "teach them lesson".

It should have been easy, with all my experience.

It was not. No lies , not pretending here. I had the most frustrating decade or more in trading before I finally put the market where it need to be in my thinkng. Hate or love it. It is just a business ( however small if one has a little capital). It requires a lot patience, avoidence of trades, where the entry and exit points are not clearly defined and where the size is managable for one not to be adrift due to the thinking about loss/gain, when the real thinking should be about "is this position still right".

It is hard to give that kind of a discipline over a short time, but the teachings we provide will linger in everybodies mind and will trigger the calm/patient approach to markets later on. That is my hope that we have seeded that sort of a trigger in you and soon it will trigger. And that will make you a better investor/trader.

Tools and methods, which are differnt and unique, will also produce its impring as you will know how the succesful investors think/operate.

Thanks My Very Dear Friend for being with us and God Bless all you do.

Yet, Please come back and keep posting whenever you like. Consider us as a sounding board for your thoughts.