Sunday, July 19, 2009

At Goal line, Will Bears Erect Steel Curtain?


The chart above is for 7/21/2009, verus the chart below being for 7/20/2009
954.58 958.11 963.83 970.96 spx 939.69 936.16 930.44 923.31

The AntiDollar Is on one of the biggest offensive ever, 7% one week move does not happen very often and there is reason for it coming at this time. Nevertheless Bear could Master the Steel Curtain to stop the AntiDollar at the Goal Line. Will they manage? We are down to our shorter term tools to try and go with the flow, more like stay with the flow, as we are invested at minimal, but reasonable levels for retirement portfolios. Especially that we were not devastated by BEAR MARKET. So, we do not have to chase anything.

Of course, Younger subscribers, are entitled/should invest at higher levels depending on their age.


China, Nation Of Slavery, Sort of entering mainstream?

Not a chance Dear Readers. China is a country that according to the currency Renminbi setting, about 7 Rnminbi's to 1, is essentially set at the state the way a slave nation will be set. USA did not exactly stand aside, while China was allowed to become the second biggest economy in the world while keeping its currency below even SLAVE NATION standards. Of course many/most USA corportations like(d) very much to produce in China at slave vages and sell it in USA, thus turning USA into couch potato consumer nation and China into Manufacturing power.

Now that USA consumer is on life support and threatening to expire we still do not see Renminbi moving higher. Playing with the words , currency manipulation offender or not, USA and its law makers allowed this China BS to go too long and are still not doing anything to stop it. Well, I am not sure who does this policy help, but I do not think it helps USA workers, with unemployment edging to 10% and/or Chinese workers who continue to work at SLAVE wages.


So, how long this paradox of having a COMMUNISTS(haha - more like SOPITALIST) government in China running the Slave Labor Camps and being supported By USA Multinationals will be allowed by nature I mean ,( it is clear that Men/Governments in USA and China do not care) to persist. Well, I think the next world war may well be related to this issue. Unless, China allows its currency to float completely ans soon.

For China, to complain about USA polcies leading to Dollar weakness, while keeping RENMINBI at the current levels, is lie one PIG tellining the other... "YOU MY DEAR FRIEND PIG, HAVE BIG LIPS" (:-

72 comments:

John said...

Boris

Steel Curtain as in pittsburgh steelers?

old john

boris said...

Dear John,
That is the only thing that
can help Bears right now

Exactly ,

Like STEELERS

My Very Dear Friend John
Good Trading

Mike Truong said...

Good morning Boris,

I hope you have a nice weekend. We celebrated my son 9th birthday on sunday. It was a great pool party.

Well it look like we will have some throwover effect from a monster OPEX this week.

You know what really irks me is that I know I should get long on pullbacks but the fundamentalist inside of me keep arguing otherwise. It is a frustrating experience because deep down I know the US is in trouble but yet optimisms are everywhere. I feel this is like in late 2006 - early 2007 when I felt and saw things are deteriorating in the US housing market but the lenders/builders stock and the market continue to march higher and higher. It made no sense to me at all. I am having those same thoughts now. If it played out the same then we have almost until early 2010 before we see realizations come back to the market.

So why am I pondering this? Is it because the stock investing herd as a whole must be fleeced in order for the sopitalists and us to make money? I find myself having a hard time making money in this environment guiltlessly as I can see the same game playing out to the detriment family and friends.

Good trading dear Boris,

Michael

xerxes said...

Good Morning Dear Boris

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....We came close to 4th high on EURUSD...Bloomberg had a clown state that 1.45 then 1.50 is a comin'....S&P futures heading north....Gold on its long march to new highs...SF saw the future Dear Boris and its ugly for dollar bulls....

boris said...

Dear Michael.

I have and try endlessle and relentlessly to make sure that My subscribers/readers can seperate the investment from personal feelings. Investment has to become automatic( without thinking) ot it hearst the one's heart and pocket and none of those are good my subscribers.

EMOTIONS have to be destroyed before the investor in us shows up in full force.

Now, if I only spoke about this without providing example and guidance, I would be rightfully called hypocrite and any other bad names.

But that is not what I do.

I tell my subscribers/readers that there is only two ways to overcome the guilt in investment and remain emotionless ( as much as that is achivable).

1) Be there at the crashes and pick up, at least a little something, so that after the crash you can tell yourself. "See I did it. OK, I did not invest all my money, but I made money by being brave, subjugating my emotions and buying when everybody was selling"

after the first example, there will be another chance, we are still going to see few more buses no matter how old we are.

2) Embark on a dollar cost averaging, which will discipline you on that front.

3) Invest in safe dividend paying stocks to guarantee some income.

All of these steps, while not being hard, as one trys to build the wealth a confidence little by little will pay off VERY BIG WAY.

Examples will fortify one's willingness to engage when the world seems to be about to end and invest, bigger and bigger chunks at a time, but never big enough to regret.

Time heals, time reaches.
My friend that is what I preach. Please, do not be discouraged with your experiences fo far. You are still young. I wish I was learning this much when I was at your age.

I am here to teach. Take the most advantage of it.

Good Trading Dear Michael.

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
GOod Morning

I Hear you, the AntiDollar is On the Attack, but stocks are not responding yet.

It should be interesting.
Trend In EURO is proving correct so far

GOod Trading Dear Xerxes

boris said...

Dear Michael,
I wish all the best to your son with his 9th birthday, may you see his 90th birthday as well(:- !
Call me then ha,to let me know that you are no longer an emotional investor.

Good Trading Dear Friend Michael

xerxes said...

One more hurrah for the buckeroo till late summer Dear Boris? Then maybe the single currency will get a left hook...boom

xerxes said...

Talking of equities Dear Boris...At 9:59pm on Friday, you signed off and then the S&P surged north in the final seconds...So Dear Boris, don't go away until GS finishes trading :-)

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...EURUSD is outperforming GOLDUSD at the moment....but for how long?

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
I am not sure staying till 16:15 on Friday would have changed my judgement much. But we shall see, if this is one of those unusual situations we could go 8-9 days up. It could happen. Nothing anybody can do. Markets tend to overdo it on both sides long and short.

Good Trading Dear Xerxes
I am not predicting that is going to happen, just saying it is a possibility.

xerxes said...

Equities on the rise Dear Boris...
It appears that we're experiencing Pamplona II :-)

xerxes said...

>>>I am not predicting that is going to happen, just saying it is a possibility.>>>

The fact that you even contemplate it means one should take it seriously :-)

What you mentioned about the asset allocators last week got me off the fence and into the bullish mode....

Just keep posting Dear Boris, just keep posting :-)

xerxes said...

Goldman and Gold: Why Is GS Loading up on December Gold?

This from goldmansachs666.com Dear Boris....

I wonder if Hank, Robert and Dudley are doing the same DeaR bORIS

John said...

Boris,

good morning

old john

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....On Tuesday and Wednesday Bernanke testifies before the House Financial Services Committee and Senate Banking Committee in DC....If you recall Dear Boris, when Uncle Ben spoke in March, with his 'green shoot' bs, he stopped the buck from rising further and made the 666 bottom for the S&P...

boris said...

Dear John, very Good Morning to you my Dear Friend

Good Trading Dear John

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Please keep excellent work of reporting what is going on.
I appreciate it and readers do to.

GOod Trading Dear Friend
Xerxes

John said...

xerxes,

good point about Ben- come out with some pre-scripted nonsense about a strong dollar and there is a turn. Probably getting the script from Gs this morning

old john

boris said...

Dear Xerxes
With all the modesty, I can master , will tell you that you have this all wrong.

History is not that Dear Ben caused the market bottom by his GREEN SHOOT BS.

No, history will note it was yours truly , I , Boris Son of Chikva, that has predicted the 666 to be the likely low in the market and Unkle Ben had Aspolutely( I mean this(:- ) , no choice, but roll the "GROON SHOOTS" of his tongue.

History will note , that is exactly how it happened(:-

GOod Trading Dear Xerxes and thanks for the opportunity to prove that I have seen GREEN SHOOTS in February and told my subscribers about them. Way before Unkle Ben shamelessly copied it(:-

boris said...

And Dear Xerxes,
Just to fortify my case, it was not UNKLE BEN causing the dollar to go down, but my SHEKELS ON DOLLAR deliberations, the best ever one year precise prediction of currency movement predictions, which nailed the PASASOVER OF 2008(April 21, one day apart from the top in EURO) as the bottom for Dollar and PASSOVER of 2009 ( APril 8 , ZERO day apart from the top in SHEKEL/DOLLAR).

That is who turned the Dollars and Stock market around not some Governmet apartchik , even if his name is UnKle Ben the Bernanke.

And note this, the top in Dollar prediction was made 3 full years ahead, before Bernanke was even named to be the Chairman of Federal (un)Reserve of USA.

I hope you go the facts right and will not need me to remind you , how to state the facts correctly.

OK(:-

That is it for now Dear Xerxes

boris said...

And if anybody has any doubts about the

VERACITY
of my muzings above, I suggest they go and read with
FEROCITY

My articles at
http://www.safehaven.com

For, even if i can falsify my site, which I can( how nice have not you noticed how I am constantly changing history on my site(:- ), I am Aspolutely( I mean that (:- ) cannot do and am not allowed at safehaven.com.

That place is a history which will be read after thousands of years I am gone from the earth and people will still be saying.

Yes, for all these years, there was only one men that GOD has endowed with the clearvoiance to see the US Dollar actions 3 years ahead and document it.

And by then they would have seen and marveled at my prediction of US DOLLAR chart for and till the year 3010 and would have reafirmed.

Yes, there was never a man/woman/or anything thinking that was able to guess precisely the US Dollar actions for 1000 years ahead(:-

HALLELUJAH!

I can not wait for that moment
How about you Dear Xerxes
(:-

Good Trading Dear Friends

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Good morning.
Good trading.
Good day!

Bert

boris said...

Dear Bert,
Very Good morning and
Good Trading My Very Dear Friend

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...You are very funny... What I think you didn't take into account was that the Fed reads your blog (has a subscriber mole?), reads safehaven, and, therefore, knew as well when the turns would occur, and simply made statements at the correct time, so as to look perspicacious, to appear to be the moving force, when in fact, they were just reading your script :-)

xerxes said...

Well Dear Boris, EURUSD is still above the 3rd hourly...Will it even give us a chance to buy under 1.42???
The relic hasn't even pulled back to the 13 EMA on the hourly yet today..

xerxes said...

Dear John...

good point about Ben-

I started paying attention to all the clowns that talk as they seem to be market movers like the NFP, depending on what they say and they usually say bullish bs these days...

For instance, tomorrow the Bank of Canada has its meeting and will make a statement...It looked like the loonie was the first to catch fire recently and has soared....Will they say something to slow it down and allow us a chance to buy in a bit cheaper...

boris said...

Emini131 is your way.
Should be there for all, around 5 min from now

Good Trading Dear Subscribers

boris said...

If somebody does not have the emini131, please let me know instantly

Good Trading Dear Subscribers

xerxes said...

Any modification to the emini graph at this juncture Dear Boris.... Antidollar seems quite resilient here...

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
If you mean , the higher probability of Gree Arrow outcome, then I would say I still do not think it is a high probability, but with each point going up in EMINI it may become more and more probable.

Good Trading Dear Xerxes,
Which is not modification, that is the way it was , pretty much, stated in the EMINI dispatch also

Good Trading Dear Xerxes
New Highs for today would, certainly increase the odds for green arrow outcome.

xerxes said...

Yes, Dear Boris, a green kinda day...

xerxes said...

It's amazing how weak the buck is Dear Boris...It can't even rally past the 3rd hourly EURUSD high...
Pathetic...

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...I got this from another blog......

When Paulson took the Treasury job in 2006, he sold $500 million of his Goldman Sachs holdings and put them into to Treasuries, tax free, and sold another $100 million in Goldman Stock, from which he realized a $40 million dollar profit, tax free, and put them into a family trust, the Bobolink Foundation. Then he resigned as President, leaving his son and wife in charge of over $106 million. Here were some of the foundation's holdings when Paulson was Treasury Secretary:

$53 million Goldman Sachs
$397,000 Bank of America
$250,000 Countrywide (taken over with BAC bailout money)
$8.5 million Freddie and Fanny
$650,000 Hartford Insurance Group
$730,000 HSBC
$798,000 JPM
$730,000 Morgan Stanley
$830,000 PNC
$772,000 Regions Bank
$962,000 Wells Fargo
$500,000 Whacovia (which Wells Fargo acquired using TARP money that Paulson gave them)
$500,000 Sovereign Bank
$243,000 WaMu (which JPM acquired using TARP money that Paulson gave them)

What do all these financial institutions have in common? They were holding Paulson family trust assets and he bailed them out with taxpayers' money.

boris said...

See how not so blind the

B L I N D

Trust can be

You got to love this

No words

Good Trading Dear Xerxes
Thank My Dear Friend

Mike Truong said...

Dear boris,
Today seem like a replay of last Monday but in the opposite direction. I would not be surprise if we end the day red.

Also dear boris, I am not involving emotions in my last post about my ambivalent feelings regarding trading this market. I just feel that the continued fleecing of the general public by those in powers are just despicable, and the general public willingness to be led around like sheep make me sad. Maybe that is why I enjoyed trading bulll markets rather than bear markets.

Good trading dear friend,

Michael

jimww said...

Dear John Just wanted to say thanks for keeping us imformed sbout BHO , I had a little hope he would be a little different from the rest, now that I see he is
just the same as all the rest, sigh, I guess I will go back to my cynic ways and understand there will never be a great man in the white house, sad. Back to my bunker. Jim

boris said...

Dear Michael,
Thanks for sharing your view, candidly.

That is the sign of honesty and being grwon up.

I salute every step you have made and will be making in seperation of your trading from emotions.

I welcome whatever level of seperation you already achieved.

And I would say that we can all use more of such speration, including myself
(:-

Good Trading Dear Michael

boris said...

Dear Jim,
with your permission, I would like to offer US all hope in that, that your sentence stipulated not being able to see the

"great man"

in white house.

I would say to that, that I would settle for a

"great Women"

As perhaps that lady, whoever she is will bring with her the famininie sensitivity to the job, which our kind, MAN, have not mastered as they became puppets of their MASTERS, without having courage to do right thing for people.

So, there is a hope for US Dear Jim. Just that it may have to be a

GREAT WOMAN

To do the job

Good Trading Dear Friend Jim

xerxes said...

Do we get the 4 o'clock surprise again today?

jimww said...

Dear Boris I never thought of that, Who was that woman way back in Israel Golda Mehar? sorry about the spelling. It seems she was pretty fair to everyone from what I remmember. I could be wrong about that since I never lived there.

boris said...

Yes, Dear JIm,
Gold Mayer, was an American Citizen
with an orignal name of
Gold Mayerson!

Great Lady Indeed

Good Trading Dear Jim

xerxes said...

We hit 950 on S&P 500 Dear Boris...Did we do a Jim Morrison and 'Break on thru to the other side' :-)
Or is it a head fake? 45 minutes more Dear Boris and we get the answer

xerxes said...

Golda smoked a carton a day and lived into her 90's

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
It was a special Carton(:-

Good Trading My Dear Friend
Xerxes

Market Is Being Rejected at Confluence of Daily THird and Intraday Fifth.

Interesting to observe
Maybe The EODay Trick will not work today!

Mike Truong said...

Currency signaling a flattish close but who knows...

boris said...

The day has come very close to the scenario ( dar, arrows , we outlined). Just a bit higher close, does leave the possibility of a sudden reversal tomorrow , after tomorrow.

At the same time, we stay with our long allocations as long as we can see no break down!

Good Trading Dear Subscrbers/Readers

Mike Truong said...

Well that was the least excitement in the last 15 minutes I have seen in awhile... I still say currencies is not really buying this bounce but who knows...Maybe the SOPs have figure out that people are watching the bonds and FX markets now and they are going to do their best to manipulate it.

MIke

boris said...

Realistically this market will probabily not breathe, before it hits the recent recovery high , at least. That is where I personally think some profits should/will be taken.
The other way is to see the break, but we do not see any break in this market and so it goes up, unitl we see the break. What is break? As a minimun it must turn the hourly channel down.

Nop! it is streight up for 6 days now
Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....We are experiencing the break now...The break is a slower decline, rather than a fast decline, of the dollar :-)

xerxes said...

July 16 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil will collapse to $20 a barrel this year as the recession takes a deeper toll on fuel demand, according to academic and former U.S. government adviser Philip Verleger.

A crude surplus of 100 million barrels will accumulate by the end of the year, straining global storage capacity and sending prices to a seven-year low, said Verleger, who correctly predicted in 2007 that prices were set to exceed $100. Supply is outpacing demand by about 1 million barrels a day, he said.

“The economic situation is not getting better,” Verleger, 64, a professor at the University of Calgary and head of consultant PKVerleger LLC, said in a telephone interview yesterday. “Global refinery runs are going to be much lower in the fall. If the recession continues and it’s a warm winter, it’s going to be devastating.”

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

I read something interesting tonight on hussman's site. Essentially I am a reactive trader/investor instead of a responding investor. Now as I applied this thinking to your daily eminis, weekly big picture, and quarterly WBR/YBR updates, I start to realize that you are providing the road maps on all the time line to trade, invest. It is up to us to create the plans, and respond to the market instead of reacting to the market. I realized that lately I have been reacting and not responding. I'll give you a quick example. Last Monday, after receiving your emini and going over the big picture graphs, I was somewhat certain of a antidollar rally and the corresponding market rally. My plan was to buy some front month in the money QQQQ at about 50/contract (roughly 5 -10 contracts). The plan was there but as the sunday night early Monday morning drop shook me out of my conviction thus creating doubts and I dropped my plan. It was a small but costly mistake.

Good trading dear friend,

Mike

boris said...

Dear Michael,

Your observations are absolutely correct.

I provide a road and leave the driving to you if you so desire.

THose roadmaps are real maps. NO BS of some kind.

What you are all holding in your hands is graph of future Stocks(YBR/WBR), graph of future OIL ( seefuture) and Graph of DOllar( Dollar Projection).

ON top of that I provide my own actions, which people can follow in timing, but could aplify in size according to their age and resulting aggressivness.

Yes, that is how we work and that is what we provide.

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

boris said...

Yes, in short,

We allow our subscribers to plan their investments, in addition to following what we do.

I do belive, that in all the humbleness I can master, we are unique in that sense.

Good Trading Dear Michael

xerxes said...

Good Morning Dear Boris

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Good Morning and Good Trading
My Dear Freind

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Some clown on Bloomberg said that 1.65 is probably the top for GBPUSD as US economy is improving faster than everywhere else and this should manifest as USD strength going forward....He must be a hurtin' dollar bull :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
I think....


He is close to truth

Hurtin or not

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

boris said...

Remember I did not say he is right.

Because he is not.

Not in time and not in price.

Our susbscribers should know better

Good Trading Dear Xerxes
(:-

boris said...

Dear John
send this link to us
Yes, Dear Paulsen worried about little guy when he imbarked on saving the world. Of course, did you every doubt that(:-

Paulsen Worries About US(:-

Good Trading Dear Friend Xerxes

xerxes said...

Please remind your subscribers Dear Boris :-)

xerxes said...

Dear Boris, John....Did you know Hank was a history major....when I was a kid they told me that humanity majors would starve....Go into science, medicine, law, engineering to get ahead...yeah riiiight :-)

xerxes said...

Uncle Ben, Dear Boris, has already printed up and spent 200 billion of the 300 billion he pledged to buy treasuries....Ben speaks today to congress...Will he announce an increase? I think the treasury plans on issuance, going forward, of about a trillion...

xerxes said...

We have a rally in the buck Dear Boris....6 pip gain from its open :-)

xerxes said...

Futures soaring Dear Boris...

boris said...

Der Xerxes,
Thanks for your reporting.

Good Trading My Very Dear Friend Xerxes

boris said...

Dear Subscribers

EMINI132 went out
should be at your mailbox in less than 5 minutes

Good Trading Dear Subscribers

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Seems like sky's the limit here...Are we gonna hit the 4th on EURUSD or even the 5th...Seems that 4th/5th is the new daily norm :-)

xerxes said...

Crude surging Dear Boris...This must be 1999 redux :-)

xerxes said...

Blowout earnings Dear Boris from CAT Coke Merck Freeport...and on and on..

Do you hear those pops Dear Boris? No, they're not gunshots, it's the sound of champagne corks across Manhattan and every antidollar war room across the world :-)

Mike Truong said...

dear boris,

I am continued to be amazed at the power of positive thinking. I think so many people are in the recession is ending in 6-9 months and are buying anything in preparation for such an event. I still don't see fundamentals improving but almost all of the bearish econmist (roubini, faber, etc) are predicting a small but positive 4th qtr GDP along with the end of this recession. What I don't see are

1. Housing prices in aggregate are still falling with the mid-low and low end stabilizing while the mid and high end are cliff diving. (Please see mr mortgage site)

2. JOBS are still hard to come by. The rate of job losses may be sowing down but still these are losses not gain in jobs. Everyone keep harping about Unemployment is a lagging indicator. However this time we are experiencing lowered official unemployment due to people falling off the rolls. The extended unemployment benefits are masking the true numbers. Why the BLS does not include those who collect the extended unemployment in the official number is perplexing.

3. Commercial real estate is starting to show some major cracks. I think the breaking of this dam is probably worse than the Residential RE bursting as there are more money tied into CRE.

4. I do not see much consumer spending. Almost everyone I know are in retrench mode (but I am in California so it may be different).

5. The real growth in the US market since march 09 has been on the back of the dollar decline. It is ironic that President Obama is cheerleading the market as a indicator of the economy improving but never mentioned that the US dollar has been in decline by almost the same amount since April 09.

6. BRIC growth has been largely base on the dollar decline also.

My thinking is that the MSM as well as the SOPs has trained the US public to equate the equity market to the REAL economy. It is a sad commentary on the level of the US populace intelligence to fall for such hubris...

Good trading dear Boris,

Michael