Tuesday, June 09, 2009

Game Of Chiken, Still On




949.26 952.04 956.54 962.16 spx 937.53 934.75 930.25 924.63

86 comments:

boris said...

Asset Oscillators have been uploaded on DotNet

Good Trading

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

In a game of chicken, only the undertaker wins. I am starting to understand your logic. Let the bulls and bears fight it out and we'll swoop in for the prize later after it has been mortally wounded.

Good trading dear friends,

Michael

boris said...

Dear Michael,
You can see how long this is taking.

My current assumption is that those that are long need buyer to distribute and they are not coming easy. So, the stalmemate?
Yes wating for actual confirmed break and pull back thereafter is the best way to approach this.

Of course nothing is wrong buying and selling APS either. Yesterdays example being perfect. ( that is for short term traders of course)

GOod Trading
Dear Michael

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

Does the stalemate affects your turn dates?

Good trading dear friend,

Michael

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...How are the distributors going to find buyers when they jack up the index a few minutes before closing?

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
That is how, Remember there are buyers in Australi/Japan/Europe in that sequence after the markets close here

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

The French are pikers compared to Obama/Bernanke...From Bloomberg:

The combined deficits of the central government, local authorities and the national welfare system this year may exceed the record shortfall of 6.4 percent of gross domestic product set in 1993, Budget Minister Eric Woerth said on June 4.

boris said...

Dear Michael,
It is clear that when the market is spinning in tight range the Turnd dates do not produce pronounced events. They have no concept of the size of of the moves that maybe initiated after reaching that time window

Good Trading Dear Michael

xerxes said...

But, Dear Boris....I thought one should buy BEFORE a big advance, not afterwards :-) Besides, when they buy US equities, they lose on the currency....I wouldn't think that is not a very attractive proposition... So lets see: (1) Buy High (2) Pay commissions/slippage on both equity and forex(3) Get creamed on the forex (4) Sell Low....And I thought I was a dummy :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
As I said, with the skills of a short term trader one can buy before and then , expect to convert the short term into intermediate term trade.
Alternatively bus comes often , so one can wait for a break and wait for buses to come after that. They invariably do If you watch the APS


Good Trading Dear Xerxes

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Good morning.
Good day.

Bert

boris said...

Dear Bert,
Very Good Morning to you
My Ver Dear Freind
Good Trading

xerxes said...

dear Boris...R We Gonna have a blowout sale on EURUSD...If we pass the 5th, 1st daily is a moonshot away :-)

boris said...

Yes, Dear Xerxes,
Noted(:-

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

boris said...

PIMPO says,

NOT SO FAST WITH RISING RATES!

Yes, Dear PIMPO,

are you reading www.antisopitalist.net ?
Or somebody is forwarding to you my emails to subscribers(:-

Good Trading Dear Readers

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....So if they push equities a bit higher, animal spirits could drive EURUSD to new highs for the move....So all those furriners that bought US equities after the brisk close yesterday will be a sufferin' Dear Boris....

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Are they gonna sacrifice the buck today to aid their distribution scheme? But then gold could breakout...So what does a good sopitalist do?

xerxes said...

I think they'll sell the buck hand over fist as they need euros while they wallow away those lazy hazy days on the cote de azure :-)

xerxes said...

It looks like they are gonna convert the shooter into a 3 inside up on the hourly Dear Boris....

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Excellent reporting(:-

Keep up the good work, My Dear Friend.

I have my hads full with other things at this moment.

Thanks Dear Friend Xerxes

Mike Truong said...

dear all,

what if we are in a totally new trading environment whereby the US GOV funnel money into agent banks (GS, MS, CITI, JPM, etc) to continue to buy the market with .gov money? Since in theory .GOV can continue to hold the loss indefinitely, there would be no need to sell to bagholders. This way the average person and companies can continue to believe in the miracle of Obama's policies. Maybe this is the secular bull cycle you mentioned about boris.

Good trading dear friends,

Michael

xerxes said...

Euro is levitating Dear Boris....I bet your hands are full of euros and francs from those leveraged USD sales :-)

xerxes said...

Euro being help up by MAE 40 on 4 hr Dear Boris...Surely that won't hold long :-)

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...we need you to post more dailies :-)

John said...

Boris

Risk / reward is not there in this type of market- sidelines good place to be

old john

boris said...

Dear John,
Dear Xerxes,
Dear Michael,

All we can do know numbers and sticks with them.

First move up was stopped very near the third and turned as the currencies were already at the fifth or more and that did not give much room.

Then we cam down and broke the pivot point specified in email.
Then we expected follow up, but were watching the exit at the same pivot point on the upside and and truth be said, since we expect the next turn point where we expect, if that is a high then market is perhaps behaving right.

Not giving up much and slowely, surely inching towards that date higher.

Of course if things change and market brakes to new daily lows one can consider that drop on equal footing, buit till the market refuses to even make daily low one has to follow all opporotunities up ( short traders I mean).

Good Trading Dear Friends

Market is still circling around OUR PIVOT POINT

G

xerxes said...

Dear John...Goldman Sachs has some plays for you :-)

“The dollar has appreciated recently on the back of higher risk aversion,” the Goldman Sachs foreign-exchange research team wrote in a note to clients. “We think this offers a good entry point to go long the euro against the U.S. dollar and so does our Dear Friend Boris."

As the correlation between oil prices and the U.S. dollar re-emerges, “higher commodity prices will lead to a weaker dollar,” the Goldman analysts wrote today.

Goldman recommends taking a long position in the euro against the U.S. dollar “with a stop on a close below 1.3720 for an initial target of 1.45.”"

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Are these guys aCTUALLY BUYING eurusd? Or are they gonna rally the buck hard after I sold my last buck? :-)

Mike Truong said...

Xerxes,

There is your short-term target for a short to 1.37 as told by GS. Look like this is a blowoff top to get people into the EUR long before they pulled the rug on everybody and take it down to 1.37 and beyond.

Good trading dear friends,

Michael

xerxes said...

Dear Mike...It could very well be as you say...

boris said...

Dear Friends,
We have our own targets and they are there.
We are not going to fall suckers for anybodies announcments.

Remember it was GS who said OIL was going 200/250 when we screemed collapse was imminent.

So, While This GS advice had merit as it comes close to our own forecast ( short term), but we need to remain flexible with dates and numbers and adjust instantly as the wind blows wrong direction.

Good Trading Dear Friends

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...EURUSD lost 40 pips; 290 more to hit GS stop loss recommendation :-)

xerxes said...

Now this from Barclay Dear Boris:

Barclays Capital remains bullish on shekel The bank's model shows that the exchange rate should be around NIS 3.78/$.

The Shmeck and the Euro move in harmony against the buck so how can all the big banks be wrong Dear Boris :-)

boris said...

Did Dear Obama say, Health Insurers and WOODO doctors have been stealing from medicare?

I think that is what he said.
It is about time the WOOD doctors that often cure deseases that "never existed" will work for the same salary as the doctors in other countries are.

Nothing against the profession.
Being a Doctor was like being GOD when I grew as a child. But then again, GOD does not take inordinate amount for his services, as far as I know.

It is not Doctors problem that things are the way they are, but the system got this way over decades and it must change.

So, ONE FOR Dear OBAME. I hope he is not shot by SYCO somewhere for what he said today.

And I hope this is not to hid behind decalarations , while he is spending/feeding his constituents liek teachers and Police and Fire and municipal workers
Good Trading

John said...

Boris

The Police unions are no fans of BHO, not even close

old john

boris said...

Dear John,
It is obvious to me that Police and Fire fighters have never gotten to the levels of Doctor and Teacher Salaries.

Helathcare and Education has bean leading inflation for over 3 decades.

While, I do not think OBAMA has done too much favors to Police Or Fire Fighters, and especially with regards to the Pensions etc.

But LIONS SHARE of the Eco Recovery/STIMULUS money went to local government, which , I am sure made , at least, well connected units of Police and Fire Departments happy.

1) By not cutting teir services
2) By keeping their salaries high
with the taxpayers money.

So, All in all, I am sure , lions share of what OBAMA calls the STIMULUS is to
keep the teachers salaries high as they have elected HIM

Good Trading Dear John

jimww said...

Dear John I think you brought some really nice weather . What part of town are you looking to settle in now that you have been in phoenix valley of the sun for a little while? Jim

John said...

Jim

Probably sun city grand, wife going out now to look at another house.

old john

John said...

Boris,

In BHOs hometown, it is not going to Police. They had 13000 sworn police officer 3 yrs ago, now just over 10000. Attrition is huge now -. From what I hear, equipment like cars are also all broken down, etc.
So I do think they are getting the money, my guess, the Pols will use it for roads, bridges, whatever. Easier to get kickbacks.

old john

boris said...

Dear John,
It is clear to me that POLICE never got rich in any country.
Perhaps some in GESTAPO. But we are not at that stage ( thank GOD not yet).

So, it makes sense that until the local CROOKS find themselves under the gun of the MOB( citizens) the CROOKS will do just what you said.

Good Trading Dear John,

One Still Wonders about the LEVEL of directness and CHUZPA Dear Obama found to say what he sayd about medicare.

Obiously, everybody knows what he said, but nobody ever at his level has come real close to his words.

Healthcare industry must have pissed him off very badly in the election process

Good Trading Dear John

jimww said...

Dear John I see your wife really likes that part of the valley , glendale and peoria sure have come a long way in the last 15 years , I hope you find just what your looking for, lots to look at . Get ready for the summer maybe get lucky this year with sun spot cycle being very low , maybe keep the temp under 110 for the marjorety of the summer.

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Gold gained 35 cents today...S&P 500 gained 0.36%....But the friggin Euro gains over 1%...

Maybe the distribution is the USD and not equities Dear Boris...Maybe this is nothing more than a reaction to the ongoing monetary debauchery..

Maybe Barclays And Goldman read your blog......Viva AP'S :-)

boris said...

CHIKEN continued today.

Incredible. Is not it?

But one could see this coming

The cure for this BS is

D I V I D E N D

Good Trading

boris said...

I never send them DOLLAR PREDICTOR.
I hope nobody has provided it to them(:-

Good Trading

xerxes said...

But Barclays saw your shmeck work on safehaven DeaR bORIS...I'm sure they can deconstruct then reconstruct :-)

They're saying..Look boys we rally this thing to 1.45...We start talking this eurorotz up big like to 1.75 and beyond. When all the lemmings pile in for the big enchilda run, we hammer it down under 1.37..And remember, we didn't say how much under 1.37, hehehe..Piece of cake...We pocket billions, fleecing all the sheep worldwide, enough to pay back the TARP shmarp and hand out hefty bonuses around the office... We'll even have a little leftover to thank Geith and Ben for playing along...

boris said...

This came from Dear John,

Subject: The Police Policy Studies Council

When I mentioned the police, this is one aspect of it. I spent almost 30 years on the job and I do not know one police officer that live past 76, Just the way it is. - most die before 70. They mention in this article. stress, rotating shifts, bad diet( no place to eat in the ghetto), chance of getting hurt, suicide is a huge one ( about 20 times more likely in a retired police officer than someone else retired- that is right 20 times) I could go on and on. We were not teaching in some school from 9- 3.
Shift-Survival

Good Trading Dear John,

Mike Truong said...

boris,

I left you a question on the dotnet site. Hopefully you will have a chance to answer it.

Thanks and good trading dear friend,

Michael

boris said...

As I said,
I do not know any POLICEMAN who get really rich from the job.

And I certainly agree that the police jobs is a stressful as they come.

Placing them at the level of Doctors and Teachers, was not my idea, but being municipal workers I had to. Doctors are not municpal workers of course, but we were referring to medicare in this case as well.

Nevertheless, I am sure that some of OBAMA Fluff, will go

1) to some areas where police is not working so hard. Affluent neighborhoods, where crime is not high and salaries are high
2) Has prevented , reduction in forces , at some places where it could have helped Municipal financies.

I repeate, though that Neither Police Nor Fire Fighters get rich,Nevertheless their salaries rose and their pension commitments are pressuring the municipality finances. But the really big money is stolen by plenty of Doctors stealing from Medicare and plenty of teachers with lifetime defined benefit pension plans of over $80000, whose pension commitements are bursting the municipal finances. Yes you see right. You and I were FORCED to DONATE to all of that.

A kind of a simpler point I make is that without OBAMA taking it from us and giving to municipalities, a lot of bloated commitments they made would have been reduced and that would have helped all taxpayers and municipal finances.

Good Trading

boris said...

Having all of that said.

I agree with Dear John, that since the money is fungable, A lot of Crooks at the local municpal level will spend money away even from these somewhat more palatable expenses as expenses for Polica and Fire departments.

They will probably spend it on $30 an hour Janitorial contracts and Waste removal and all kinds of nebulous things that you know and I do not have to get into.

Good Trading Dear Readers

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....Goldman Sachs said to be short the buck against everything and anything and so far they spoke the truth...target 1.45....Too bad they didn't mention gold...Will they take out 1033.++ Will gold rise faster than the euro Dear Boris?

I'm thinking about 1050 on the S&P 500 about 10% higher from here...
1.4085 + 10% = 1.55 Dear Boris

xerxes said...

And we mustn't forget Dear Boris that Mr. Goldman also suggested 85 for WTIC, back when it was 65...Now it is close to 71...Who am I to argue with the Politburo?

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
I would take it easy for now. I doubt GOLD is going to new highs on this move, but a short term trader can follow the move higher as long as it lasts.

GOod Trading Dear Xerxes

boris said...

Well, Goldman also suggested OIL at 200 when it was 140!

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

boris said...

GS just forgot to tell us that the road to 200 was via 33!

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

Mike Truong said...

dear xerxes,

I have notice that G$ calls are often correct in the short-term (3-7) days before turning. They must have plausible deniability in their pump and dump.

Good trading dear xerxes,

Michael

xerxes said...

vvv GS just forgot to tell us that the road to 200 was via 33! vvv

Well Dear Boris...Does it matter to a long-term investor? :-)

Dear Mike....I'm being a bit tongue in cheek here and you're probably correct about plausibility...They make a 100 calls, 97 are wrong but everyone will remember the 3 that were spot on....

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Are they gonna mow down your hourly high AP's again today? :-) S&P target getting closer, now only 102.50 away...With the 70 billion TARP money returned the PPT has the cash to easily hit the 1050 target :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
For a long term investor it does not matter, as long as the 200 is not reached via 9!

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

Consider the city's [Oakland, CA] cash position: Out of next year's general fund of approximately $415 million, police costs are estimated at $212 million, fire protection service $103 million and $41 million in debt service payments. That leaves about $60 million to pay for everything else, from library services to recreation centers to public works.

And that calculation doesn't include $50 million more in deferred debt service.....

Hopper said...

Hi Boris and Friends,

I hope you all are trading well.

Just wanted to say Hi.

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...S&P 500 target now sub 100...:-)

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Shmeck is skyrocketing

xerxes said...

I must thank Dear Ivan for suggesting that German site with the live indices indications...

99.50 Dear Boris :-)

boris said...

Dear Hopper thaks
Dear Friend
GOod Trading

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,

Yes, I hear you.
Yo Know Oakland California, perhaps has one of the highest crimes in the state.

No wonder Half of their money is going for POLICE.

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...US Supreme Court ruled that cops have no obligation to help anybody, ever...They don't work for the taxpayer...

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...10 year today...I wonder how much Ben is gonna buy today? I guess we'll see how much via the EURUSD movements :-)
3rd high looks like a no-brainer today, 5th if Ben has to pick up extra slack

xerxes said...

Nobody is buying the buck Dear Boris...Only sellers...

xerxes said...

We need another 18% to hit GS crude target...Shouldn't take long with the upcoming 10 year auction bust...

xerxes said...

Nearly hit 2nd Dear Boris...30 billion in notes and bonds today Dear Boris...Will the Chinese and arabs step up to the plate? If the Sheiks stay home I wonder if GS will 'discover' long lost 'inventory'. :-)
Do we have a C&H on the hourly?

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
All in good time(:-

Good Trading Dear Friend

xerxes said...

For the next 15 to 30 minutes Dear Boris, I'm bearish on the euro :-)

xerxes said...

When will they emit a golden renminbi Dear Boris...:-)

China Car Sales Jump ‘Beyond Imagination,’ Bring Two-Month Wait

Beijing drivers, now have to wait about three weeks for a Hyundai Motor Co. Yuedong Elantra, China’s bestselling car, or as long as eight months for a Honda Motor Co. CRV sport-utility vehicle.

xerxes said...

Target now 95.5 away Dear Boris...

alexnewbee said...

Good afternoon everybody.

"If the Sheiks stay home I wonder if GS will 'discover' long lost 'inventory'. :-)"

don't you think it is part of the deal - banks drive up price of oil, scheikhs with extra money buy bonds, everybody is happy (at the expence of oil consumers). If I remember correctly, it started with Kissinger...

xerxes said...

Yes Dear Alex...That is the deal..
Everything you said I agree with exactly...Have you joined the long euro camp, even temporarily, Dear Alex? :-)

alexnewbee said...

Dear Xerxes

no, I do not like long Eur, even for couple of pips.
first it is ovevalued, and you do not want trade against fundamentals.
second, I am afraid we are somwhere similar to 29 of Dec. 08 (EUR/USD).

but could be wrong, so I do not touch it.

xerxes said...

Dear Alex....It seems many economic commentators and traders state that euroland fundamentals are bad...I don't have an intelligent repartee to that idea so I can't comment but I do ask myself if those fundamentals, whatever they are, can actually be worse than America's fundamentals...But it does appear to be the case that the euro's fortunes have a positive correlation to the performance of equities and commodities and so, with my short-term outlook, I find myself forced into holding euros...

I live in euroland Dear Alex, and I must say things are smokin' here...There's a lot of loose change everywhere...Flights are full, as are restaurants, I couldn't even find a car to rent last week as they were all let out...Many countries would probably enjoy these bad fundamentals :-)

alexnewbee said...

Dear Xerxes

I live in Germany, can say that situation is not that bad (yet), but getting worse. a lot of new bankrupcies.

but looks like you trade is correct for the moment.
good trading.

xerxes said...

Thank you Dear Alex and good trading to you as well...

xerxes said...

Well Dear Boris...It's official now. We've been instructed to sell bonds and the buck and buy equities, the new asset allocation scheme :-)

'Asset Allocation’

“We’re not calling for more bank failures or even lower GDP,” said Suvrat Prakash, an interest-rate strategist in New York and survey participant at BNP Paribas Securities Corp., a primary Treasury dealer.

“If you think things can’t get worse, it might not be such a bad idea to buy the stock market.

There’s bound to be some asset allocation” out of government bonds, Prakash said.

The survey’s index for expectations on the U.S. dollar fell by the most since March 2008 to 31.61, the lowest since then. The dollar has fallen against 11 of the 16 most traded currencies this year, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

“Dollar weakness prevailed before the breakout of the credit crisis,” said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at TD Securities Inc. in Toronto, who participated in the survey. “That trend is going to re-emerge.”

John said...

Boris.

good morning. That annual AP on QQQQ may get hit very soon

old john

Ivan said...

Hi Boris,
please resend emini with attachement!

boris said...

Dear John,
Thanks for reminding us
Good Trading Dear John

boris said...

Dear Ivan,
BEing Resend
Thank you Dear Friend

Good Trading

boris said...

Moved to new post