Friday, May 22, 2009

Would like to see some rally, but may not

Gold, is moving ahead. We thought that we need one more decline in GOLD to go long, see the GOLD asset oscillator few posts below. Well, guess what, right after that post we got a quick retrace of 17 dollars back, but that was exactly top of the daily channel we watched. Now, that was a critical point and I certainly could not ignore the fact that GOLD did not brak down at that critical point and therefore that changed my critical thinking about it. Regardless of what I thought, gold seemed ready to go and I s tarted advising that while one might SHORT TERM test gold at some resistance points, the intermediate trend seems to have changed and after market fell hard, it became even clearer that Gold was to be left alone or ride it if you ar long. I am long in my Assset Allocation at the core level, but not long at the speculative , investment level. Well, you can not get them all. IF Silver also clears the 14.99 then it would joing gold into the uptrend all the way. Needless to say that Currencies are in the uptrends as well.
Now, none of that means anything , we could crash tomorrow in all ANTIDOLLAR, but facts are facts. Trends are up for ANTIDOLLAR.

30 comments:

daveo said...

Dear Boris, sent email, have to go work for now, have a good day, Daveo

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...USDCAD hits 5th and passes 2nd daily...Are these guys loonie or what :-)

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Good morning.
A happy long weekend to all!
Good trading.

Bert

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
USDCAD is LOONIE, you are correct(:-

Good Trading

boris said...

Good Morning Very Dear Friend Wanderer

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Is the loon gettin' legs Dear Boris

Ivan said...

Hi Boris, could you resend last emini, this time with attachement :-) Thanks

xerxes said...

It's not a coincidence that the dollar has been sold-off almost non stop since 1400 EST yesterday. That's when the FOMC minutes came out and since then the dollar and USD Index have done nothing but devalue. No trader on earth has the liquidity to fight against these kind of fundamentals and monetary policy issues because there's almost no risk in selling the dollar when you know the central bank give its full blessing to do so.

When the Fed says "please sell our currency, please devalue and depreciate it" that's exactly what's going to happen. It doesn't matter what any analyst, chart, or tech indicator says, the dollar will get sold-off and any trader that fights against this gets steamrolled. There's not really much more to add on this topic, it's as clear. And for the ten kabillionth time I'll repeat the same mantra I've been repeating for a month -- DO NOT BUY THE DOLLAR. It's not worth fighting the fundamentals, the monetary policy, and the actions of the Fed.

I'm writing this part of the update with a very serious tone because based on all of the emails I've received today I know traders tried to fight the Fed by shorting the euro against the dollar last night and early this morning. All I can say is, when I repeat something like don't buy the dollar every day in every update, there's a reason why..

xerxes said...

dear Ivan...Where have you been?

Ivan said...

Hard question, dear xerxes :-)

xerxes said...

Glad that you're back Dear Ivan :-)

daveo said...

Dear Boris, saw your comments from yesterday ?? Sorry to bother you about it. Daveo

xerxes said...

Well Dear Boris the loonie looks like it is in freefall country

boris said...

Dear Dave
Got it.
Thanks My Dear Friend

Dear Xerxes,
Thanks

Good Trading Dear Friend

boris said...

Here we go again, Seem like the
Stocks want to follow Red arrows?

Good Trading Dear Subsscribers

DXB said...

xerxes
I can't see a better time to add to long USD positions!
Sentiment is horrible. There are articles claiming UK is in better financial position than USA, and the numbers are intentionally or unintentionally wrong.
That's how things work. We get worked up by the information networks.

See you at US DX 82.00 at the minimum! I will come back and say hi at 89 if I am in good health !

Ciao

boris said...

Dear DXB,
Thanks for your input.
Never to be ignored!

We will welcome you back when you see it fit

Good Trading

DXB said...

Boris said:
"Talk is cheap and getting cheaper
day by day.

Except it can be expensive to follow that Cheap talk."

Hahaha So true, Boris.
Words and talk are cheap , very cheap tools.

What is amazing is that the market has still fooled itself into "believing" letters like AA or AAA mean something.

boris said...

See the post about gold in the body of this post.

Good Trading Dear Readers

boris said...

So, in light of the post in the body of this post. What does a SHORT TERM Trade do in light of the trends and oscillators being at odds ( by the way , they almost always are).

here is what to do.
1) if you do not know how to trade short term leave things alone!
2) If you know how to play shor term trades, it almost is immatterial what where the market goes. On a given day the security can/will do whatever it wants to do.

So the only thing to do is to play APs and that is it ( if you take into account trends then that is fine too , but that is up to you).

Good Trading Dear Subscribers.

For asset allocators these questions do not really exist, pretty much.

boris said...

To give you example.
For last 3 days, I must have traded over 150 times in the GBP, most of it on the short side.

I could not give a dam that it is in the uptrend ( actually I think it could be topping).
Now, it is possible that I could have made more if I traded GBP long instead of short, but that is not clear and that is not what I wanted to do. And that is it.

As a short term trader all that matters is to be quick and trade cheap like a gourilla.

Good Trading

tim9lives said...

Hello dear Boris,,,just a gut feeling I have,,nothing more.
With New York markets closed Monday,,,if a dollar / Gold reversal were to occcur,,,Monday would be the day IMO.
Gold Longs and dollar shorts had better put in their stops,,,,as I would not be surprised to see the dollar strength come back next week.
Anyway,,,good trading friends--Tim

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....Your post sounds like you are capitulating...

xerxes said...

Dear tim9lives...It could be that EURUSD is heading to its 50% fibo of the move of 160 to 123...It's close..

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....What's up with the body temp of 108?

boris said...

Dear Tim,
Thanks.

Good To hear from you.

Good Trading My Dear Friend

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
I never capitulate, because I am never in that state

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

boris said...

Boy this is a slow market.

It is even less exciting than watching the grass grow
Good Trading

DXB said...

Interesting and going according to plan for China, Geithner, Bernanke and the boys at PIMCO, Gross and El Erian before a major bond offering next week?
Nice racket... Talk down the dollar the past week. You know who they are, and the past 2 months, thank you China.
How much oil and commodities can you buy, store (oil anyone?) and hold with reserves. Yes, not very much, China.
Last data show that not much interest in eurozone or british paper, yes?
Yields are up but the dollar has been whacked by the poobahs and now gov paper looks real attaractive in price for antidollar holders. Pimco can buy cheaper bonds now.
That AAA talk was a low blow, yes? To shortterm traders trying to short antidollar. But who cares about them when there are bigger things happening?
Have a nice weekend

boris said...

Dear DXB, Thanks
Very percepritve.

And That SOPITALIST from PIMPO ( OOPS! nice mistake(:- )
He will say anything to move the markets where he and bodies want!

Good Trading Dear DXB