Friday, May 08, 2009

Sign Of Hope For Bears


My apologies for gettint to these pictures From Dear Ralph too late. Shame on me. Just forgot with all other things going. Thanks Dear Ralph








926.39 929.06 933.39 938.78 spx 915.13 912.46 908.13 902.74










89 comments:

xerxes said...

A break here would drop USDCHF to between your 3rd and 4th...Is that your thinking here Dear Boris...

Ivan said...

Good morning all!
Boris, when you find time, could you explain what exactly represent this PC Ratio graph? Is this your propriatary graph or? What represent points, red and blue line?

boris said...

Dear Xerxes, I collected my profits. On SWISSY.

I am now not long SWISSy any more

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear Ivan,
These lines are a propritary construction. For PCratio.

Good Trading Dear Ivan

xerxes said...

Stalled pattern on EURUSD and hammer on USDCHF

boris said...

Good Idea Dear Xerxes,
But need to be watching this situation. It cold go either way

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....Maybe one day, here or on dotnet you could explain this trade....If you were up at 4:00 am CET when a USDCHF short looked hot, I can see it...But that would mean that you don't sleep :-)

xerxes said...

Being a rookie at this Dear Boris, I vacillate between wow, what a great tool to, shit this indicator is pure BS...The sticks aren't bad when conflated with other indicators in a 'multiple technical technique' strategy...Unfortunately, they morph frequently, especially after you put on a trade :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
No I was not up, but close. In any case, I got on this bandwagon short a bit late, still made profit. Motivation here was that if SWISSY were to go higher I did not like to be missing that ( from the ASSET allocation point of view, AH... the AsAl again ha(:- ).

But once I realised we could be bottoming on USDCHF, I said to myself, hell with AsAl at this point let me take profits and then worry about AsAl. I thin I have time for that, even If I have to wait another 9 months.

I can not explain whee 9 months come from for now, but trust me.

So, you see, not all my considerations are in ome time frame( investmnet frame). I seem to go in and out ot these and I would have thought in the past that to be CRIME of the century. Now, I enjoy playing that game.

More later.

Good Trading Dear Xerxs

Ivan said...

Interesting and remarkable: more and more people are serching Google for keyword 'Boris Chikvashvili'. I think next year Boris could make preparation for writing of book. Boris, please do not go to much into public before your old friends earn first million :-)

xerxes said...

Dear Ivan...Yes, Dear Boris is all over the place...but only you and I are listening :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
The only millioner I will ever be is the one who has millions of satisfied followers. Now they themselves may become million(ers), but as for me.

I am satisfied with having a relatively calm and uneventful life after almost 60 years for GLOBTROTTING(:-

Good Trading Dear Ivan, and Thank you for all of your help in getting DotNet Site set up. Or I will be emailing still every word I write(:-

Good Trading My Dear Friend

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Looking at your trend table, seems we have a one-way bet :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Looks that way, ANTIDOLLAR is feeling its OATS, Unless my patters stop those GOD DAM ANTIDOLLAR, at least, temporarily(:-

Good Trading

Ivan said...

Dear xerxes, look this picture for google stats for DotNet site:
http://www.antisopitalist.net/Data/Sites/1/ivan/google_bc.jpg. We are not alone...

Mike Truong said...

Good Morning Boris,

How are you dear friend. I did look over what you said. I think my blowup on GBP was because I was trying to take a longer term trade with leverage which emotionally drained me. I will refrained from doing that. Onto the trading this week and next week. I think the pattern is playing out similiar to the period of March to June 2001. Therefore I think this week will be another upweek with a throwover next week (OPEX) then we go down. I think we will drift downward similar to the upward drift that we had so as to try the bulls and bears patience to hold on. Anyways that is just my reads on the market but I defer to your market calls.

Thanks dear friend,

Michael

xerxes said...

Dear Ivan...Hurry and get a chat room up and running on dotnet...that will slow things down for Dear Boris :-)

xerxes said...

Dear Ivan...Also check if there is any correlation between my posting frequency and page views...I'm sure there will be a very high correlation..

xerxes said...

Forgot the :-)

boris said...

Dear Michael,
Good To hear from you My Dear Friend.

I tend to agree that moves may well be "CHANNELED", exactly as to confuse everybody.

Where is my YIELD trade(:-

Good Trading Dear Michael

xerxes said...

Seems like they're toying with us this morning Dear Boris...

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Daily gold made a shooter yesterday...Three methods could be unfolding in franc and euro...Maybe I'm delusional :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Dilusional, we all are.

Do you propose the three method is falling or rising?

Good Trading
Dear Xerxes

Ivan said...

Dear xerxes, for a coffee break, are you football fan? If yes, do you prefer Barcelona or Real? I must know that because my stance to you depends on that fact :-))

xerxes said...

Using the dark cloud cover stick from a few days ago as the first in the pattern for the euro, Dear Boris, I would project a falling method as a possibility if euro falters today... Opposite for the franc....But it could very well be just a fantasy :-)

xerxes said...

Dear Ivan...I don't follow sports anymore so I couldn't give you an honest answer...My kids seem to like any team that wins :-)

xerxes said...

The problem with a falling 3 is that it is usually a continuation pattern and the prior direction for EURUSD was up not down...So it seems not to be the likely configuration near term...Hence my 'fantasy'.

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
I think that is noe a ligitmate 3 falling three method, because none of those days are higher than the yesterday ( today)(:-

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

My understanding is that the first stick should be long and all the subsequent sticks should have their bodies fall within the 'range' of the first stick...The last stick should then take off making a new high or low for the configuration as the case may be...

xerxes said...

Breakaway gap and a soaring DAX this morning hasn't crushed the buck...yet

Ivan said...

Dear xerxes, I think this is a game to confuse the people. Stocks should go down here...

xerxes said...

I'm always confused Dear Ivan..That's why I keep asking Dear Boris to repeat himself :-)

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...loonie routing the buck

xerxes said...

Is the loonie a leading indicator for the buck's fate Dear Boris :-)

xerxes said...

past 4th intra low on loonie Dear Boris...looks like it is time for a punt...

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
I am not sure about Loone leading buck.

But could be,if you notice so.
I have not done as extensive research on CAD as I have done on other currencies.

Do not know why?

Good Trading

xerxes said...

The leading biz just seemed so at the moment...I have no idea if it is a general rule or not...Seems to me, Dear Boris, that what leads what, depends on what you look at first :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes, Perefect!
GOod Trading Dear Friend

xerxes said...

Dax up near 3% already...They must be smokin' some good stuff there Dear Boris...

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...There seems to be a H&S in play with the loonie...Target is under 1.12....You got an AP not far away from my back of envelope calculation...scary

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Great,
I know there will come a point you will be telling me what is worth looking at instead of the other way around.

Thanks My Dear Friend
Good Trading

xerxes said...

I'll just be your most humble assistant Dear Boris, carrying your tickets to the trading desk :-)

John said...

Boris,

good morning

old john

TwinGems said...

Good morning Boris,

I always check your blog everyday even though I don't write much. Ivan, I'm glad you asked the questions about the PC ratio graph etc.. because I don't understand how to look at those charts of what you're really pointing to..

Boris, can you look at xtrends today.. he has some graphs up today re: gold and the USD in relation to SPX.. I'm just wondering whether you agree with his charting.
http://xtrends.blogspot.com/

Thank you.. I might not respond right away because I have to go out soon but I really appreciate your thoughts..

Carol

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...we get the non-farm numbers in 35 minutes....EURUDSD up 11 pips from 8:00am CET... Everybody's waiting...Seems being short dollars is most prudent..
But I haven't a clue...

Ivan said...

Something is in the air. These numbers will be very positive or very negative, I think.

xerxes said...

They're leaning against the buck here Dear Ivan...Whether that means good numbers or bad numbers, I don't know...

boris said...

Dear John,
Good Morning to you.
Good Trading My Dear Friend

boris said...

Dear Carol,We have been recommending the Long Gold Short Dow "forever". No , especially from 2007 when DOW/GOLD ration was 43. We have often stated that ration must go back 5 or lower at some point.

Mark Faber speaks a lot about it. Frankly, this is no braner ASSET ALLOCATION(ist) dream. Historical DOW/GOLD ration is from 1 to 43 over last 150 years.

So, The author you refer to uses that ratio chart to illustrate simple resistance/support points.

That is a very valid thing to do. Now, what is stated about possibilities of the ratio outcome for next short period is not complete to my mind, but I will not get into it at this point.

I think that the statments made there are in agreement with mine in a longer time frame.

In a shorter time frame, I still support what is said, but se other types of actions.

In any case. The chart and view are good and acceptable.

I will stop here.

We express our own opinions about these things and they are expressed here, as well as protected site.

Our view is a bit more complicated in its shorter term outcome, while including this outcome in that short term and even more so in longer term

Good Trading Dear Carol

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
You have no clue,
that makes two of us.
I stay out of the market on these kind of days unless i notice something during the announcment action itself.

I think , newer highs here in EURO will certainly add to the notion that Dollar top maybe in place.

Remember we thought it my have come and gone just around the PASSOVER ( April 8 ) 2009.

So there.

The rest of the outlook into June/July still stays in place. The only quesion is , in my mind, from which level will Dollar start rally and this moment Only trade and test can discover that. Not a prediction

Good Trading
Dear Xerxes

boris said...

chf hitting the 1.12 area ABC projection down and bouncing from there for now

Good Trading

xerxes said...

What are newer highs here Dear Boris?

boris said...

It is possible that we have sen the low for the dollar for now, at least.

1.12 held with some SUCHKER overrun, which did not help them, cause I took my money out of the SUCKERS (:-
Quick 20pips to 1.1220 was enough for me
Good Trading

xerxes said...

Gold bought the rumor and sold the news Dear Boris...Seems like the euro will be the last man standing here Dear Boris...

boris said...

1.1250 is now a resistance. We shall see what happens when we get there.

Good Trading

boris said...

We shall see Dear Xerxes, but Trends have changed and until they change again one needs to respect the situation.

Good Trading Dear Xerxes.

it is a different matter to steal few cents when possible, but things have broken out or they look that way. If/when things will go back to unbroken, Dollar will start rally "for good"

Good Trading

Ivan said...

Boris, any NEW opinion for stocks today?

boris said...

My opinion is always the same , when market tests important AP,

GO TEST THE MARKET.

EMINI hit the fourth. It would have been nice to test the market then.

CHF hit the ABC test I tested CHF.
This how it works.

Opinions seem to create a lot of problems, especially in short term decision making.

One must plan, be ready to react.

4th Ihap was the place to try sell the market.

Good Trading

Ivan said...

Was this the key moment for EUR?

boris said...

It is clear that a lot of things have tome together to indicate that DOllar is losing ground. While Dollar could still show considerable strenght into June/July, my expectations, at least , are diminishing on this regard. The original forecast of PASSOVER high is more and more looking as longer standing and more correct.

My expectations are changing, that is for sure.

Good Trading

boris said...

Watch here,
If CHF , EURO are not able to make new highs next hafl-one hour, Dollar rally could develop.

Good Trading

Ivan said...

Boris, I thought just that when I asked: is this the key for EUR. Still can't go over third. GBP is weak, USDCHF holds 1.12,...

boris said...

927 On EMINI is the fifth.
Watch carefully that level

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear Ivan,
You are correct.

Good Trading Dear Ivan

boris said...

Ok, Talking heads are talking about UNG.

We should have bought some around and below 13 !!!

15.64 NOW NOW NWO NOW

GOd How many times can we do that.
OIL , STOCKS, OIL/GOLD , GOLD/OIL
UNG.

Talking heads. THey seem to have 20/20 vision all the time

From the rearview mirror!

Good Trading

boris said...

Stocks market was not able to clear much beyond The 4th.
And is now falling.

Good penetration below 915 we could go 900 very fast.

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear Readers, Subscribers.
Thanks Dear Ralph, for providing the pictures right at the top of this POST.
Please see it

Good Trading

boris said...

We do have a penetration below 915 ( good one) and that means , most likely , that we will see 900 today or close to it. In any case, if you risked a little at 4th and went short, then please keep the stops at breakeven and/or if you employed a lot of capital, just take profits on 1/2 and let the rest ride.

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Seems to me Dear Boris that if the buck gets movin' a bit it will just provide an opportunity to sell it again...Maybe everybody is thinkin' that, I don't know....When I draw a line from mid December high I get ard 1.32 as the point below which EURUSD must fall to restore some semblance of a dollar bull...

boris said...

If EURO pulls below 1.3450 could cause the weakness next week. As I said though, now it is the trades time.

It is no more clear which we things go day by day.

Our Dollar Asset oscillator is really, really oversold, so it is possible that a strong bounce will insue sometime soon.

For Dollar bulls, it better happen SOON

Good Trading

xerxes said...

That hump before the drop is very cool...I wonder if it can be found elsewhere like in currency land?

boris said...

you see the CHF was flirting with the 1.1200 level for 5 days now , sizing the run to it and it was held back 5 days from doing so, to do it in the most SCAM way, in 30 minutes right arount the jobs number announcment.

You tell me if the SUCKERS that move this market do not know what they want to do and when.

So, within that 30 minutes they dropped the bottom out of USD chf all the way to 1.1175 and now we are about 55 points above that.

Nothing happens for no reason in these markets. THE SUCKERS like the panicks, because that is where public is trapped and hands them money willingly and voluntarily!


HALLELUJAH!

Welcome to worldwide SOPITALIST casino.

If you are not ANTISOPITALIST you are as good as dead facing these SCAMSTERS on the tradiang floors.

You know who those are donot you. I hope I do not have to explain again who these people are.

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Boy, you're quite liberal Dear Boris...A mere 25 pips and the euro goes down...:-)

xerxes said...

Well Dear Boris..You are spot on again...They can't even print 1.345 before they fade away

boris said...

Those who have sold around 4th and a bit higher. Please do as instructed about markets. keep stops AT breakeven or so. And should have collected some under 910 if you have too much shorts.

Good Tradiang

boris said...

Emini, needs to drop below 915 again to cause the move lower.
Until it survives that reentry there it should not be touched.

Good Trading

boris said...

Please see UNG chart at the top of this POST.

See where we advised to by the UNG or UNG-USO spread

Good Trading Dear Readers

xerxes said...

With the buck in freefall might as well exchange the quarters in the jar to euros as well Dear Boris :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
You did not want to belive that I was still holding 50/50 in EURO versus dollars.

Well, you see there is a season for every event.
The kind that we see today was the one I could not rule out.

Now you understand

Good Trading

xerxes said...

The technical damage is massive...Buck will never make a real recovery from here I guess...

xerxes said...

The weekly opened with a gap...And they don't call 'em breakaway without reason :-)

xerxes said...

It's Friday night Dear Boris and it's close to respect paying time so I'm done posting for now :-) And Thank You for indulging me :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes, Have a nice day.
Enjoy the weekend
My Dear Freind

valry777 said...

hi BORIS,
i like ask to you how work MDS SIGNALS.
on april 9 was start ,,SELL SIGNAL,, and indexes april 8 cloused was: dow 7,837 / nq 1,590 /
s&p 825.
today start ,,BUY SIGNAL,, and indexes opened: 8,410 / 1,733 / 919.
looks like priveos signal was ,,BUY,, ,-not ,,SELL,, .
how work your SIGNAL? ,-if it's work...
thanks,
valry

boris said...

Dear Valery,
These are not signals, Any more, we call them warnings.

The trading character of the market changed and we did not change the system, but realised what needs to be done is to follow the pressure chart wait unti it turns. That has not been adequatlely expressed in the system, it is not as easy as it sounds.

Now, anybody that reads my writings knows today that these are not signals but WARNINGS, under whtich we need to conitinue monitor other things.

Signal to sell, is If I say so, not if MDS says so.

I hope this is clear , espeially to people that have been subscribers long time.

Every time I told you sell is possible money was possible to be made, not much perhaps , but no loss.

And our asset allocation has made money and keeps making money until things go up.

I hope this is clear.

it is a long time that we do not really use MDS signals as signals, but as warnings

Proper logic to follow is my writings, because I interpret those warnings and convey the actions to subscribers

I hope there has been no question that I have not caused any losses, even as venerable BUFFET seems to have lost shirt in this decline

Good Trading

boris said...

Perhaps, my best course of action is to remove MDS quotes completely until such time that it has been automated.

But as I said, I do not have much hope for easy automation of MDS. It was complex as it was and now with logic piling up, I probably should give up ever updating it.

I should also give up ever quiting it as signal and USE word warning.

Obviously word signal is confusing to some people , perhaps rightfully so.

Ok. Will do.

MDS signals will no more be refered as signals any more.

Only Warnings

Good Trading

boris said...

Let us remember when we bought the market at 666 MDS was on BUY for 17 days, before then.

Was it useful to know that MDS was on by warning/signal

You bet it was supremely useful

But MDS did not decide to buy the market.

I did and told so the subscribers.

This is just an example why I keep this SIGNAL/WARNING around.

Because it is extremely USEFUL tool

GOod Tradiang

boris said...

Ok,
How can I compare usefulness of MDS to something else that woulc be clear.

Suppose one is a professional robber.

Now robber needs to work at night. At least, he prefers to work at night.

Now, let us say he invented system that tells him that it is night or day.

( just like sell and buy singlas, wornings)

Why would robber not use the wrist watch for that warning( I do not know did not ask(:- )

Ok, so now the system tells him it is night time. Now the robber looks in his appointmne tbook and figures out if he has meetings that could prevent from going to rob bank tonight.

He may also check his health and fiture out he is not fit for robbery tonight and on and on.

So, I hope it is clear.

Even though the robber had the best nigh/day predictor system he could not use it for robbery ( SELL/BUY) signal becuase the success of his action was dependent on other conditions.


WOLLA!

All of a sudden it becomes clear that his incredible system is not really a signal for him, but a warning, as he must check other things before he goes to rob somebody tonight.


(:-

I hope this makes the usefulness of MDS unquestionable.

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear Readers, Subscribers,
The investmenet game has changed and a lot of people do not want to accept the facts.

There are bull markets.
There bear Markets.
There markets that ago nowere, but gyrate a lot widely at times and in a narro channel at times.

The third case comes actually as part of a prolonged bear market.

Recognising this

I have advised the subscribers, readers that the best course of investment to take was to go for SAFE YIELD.

All of those safe YIELD investments have earned exceptional interest rates and they are still around ( did not disappear, at least not my recommendations (:- ).

We had DVY advise initially that we soon recognise would not work for us, but everything else we touched was turned GOLD if peusued ad accumuation ( asset allocation ) process.

Now people are frusttrated and think that there any ( repeate any) system that can predict every turn in the market ( we have come close(:- ).

Well, I will announce to all readers, that, to best of my knowlege

THERE IS NO SUCH SYSTEM.

So, what does a person do who missed our previous advise, because they joined later in time.

Well, there is still the process for all of that.

A) we do generate the signals and one can play short term if they wish.
b) Better yet, the asset allocation system is still there and people that have joined lately , must take their time and work through the allocation scheme over time.

There is no other choice.

only two

1) find a system that gives profits every day or hour ( good luck)
2) Work through allocation system and wait for our EXCELLENT AP system to generate ONCE in Lifetime events.

Or listen when we advise 300% GOLD-USO
OR 40% USO-GOLD spread
OR UNG.

OR OIL itself purchase at 23 for USO.

There is little else anybody can do. But of course, everybody is entitled to search.

Good Trading