Friday, May 01, 2009

New Game?

Below, you see the Stocks at Startdom (AST) with dates. Nobody can mistake the breath of this market from low 100 to 1244 stocks that are above their own FAHAP( first Annual High Attracton Points). Are there any stocks left to joing the STARDOM?(:-. This is a very, very high number. And break in this uptrend will be one of the first signals for the end of the bull phase. So, far not seen that!
475 ast20080720
511 ast20080727
517 ast20080802
455 ast20080809
509 ast20080816
496 ast20080823
523 ast20080829
400 ast20080906
406 ast20080913
472 ast20080920
339 ast20080927
173 ast20081005
113 ast20081012
110 ast20081026
133 ast20081101
125 ast20081108
113 ast20081115
103 ast20081122
122 ast20081129
111 ast20081205
108 ast20081212
113 ast20081219
112 ast20081226
141 ast20090102
108 ast20090109
109 ast20090118
103 ast20090124
104 ast20090130
214 ast20090307
268 ast20090312
366 ast20090319
687 ast20090404
989 ast20090411
1022 ast20090418
1054 ast20090425
1244 ast20090503






















Did we start new game Yesterday? Well , we may have. As the Pressure chart indicates though, we got very deep with the orange ( Buy Average Oscillator) and that will have an echo right shoulder, which may well give us a higher prices in stocks. It is not over till it is over. So, keep current stops and collect some profits.

146 comments:

xerxes said...

Good Morning Dear Boris....May Day Today so that will leave me an an observer.....It you think the market can make new high for this round then buck can make a new low...But it seems to me the euro is losing steam....So I remain the student and look to the professor for guidance :-)

boris said...

Deaer Xerxes,
New High is not immediate prospect it is more like 2-4 days staff, into next week?

So, Today could be down, uneventful?

Yes EURO is losing momentum.
Which fits the script so far.

Good Traiding

xerxes said...

Before Monday, perhaps, Dear Boris, you can write on dotnet, or here if you'd like, the roadmap for the upcoming week or maybe two....I'm confused as to whether to expect dollar/equity moves up or down...

xerxes said...

Euro hit 2nd high hourly then collapsed...If I was short I'd be moving a trail tight now...but I'm spectating not speculating :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
We will do,
I thought though you already understand the terminology we use.
Which is, Pressure charts indicate that high may not be complete, because...

You see usually the top in stocks is made not when the Orange oscillator is at the lows ( which it is now, look at the chart), but at a later time when the same orange oscillator went up and declined again , without reaching the new lows below where it is today. In that case , we have the right shoulder higher than this low ( head, you know H&s concept ).

So, this is simple.

Then again this is an expectation, does not have to heppen.

Good Trading Dear Xerxes.

xerxes said...

The orange line looks like it made a right shoulder already

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Look again,
Orange line is lowest it has been at least in 3 months. Is not it

How could it haver right shoulder.

Good Trading

boris said...

Now what could happen , of course,is as follows:

1) Orange line keeps moving lower, which is really a bull case for stocks.
2) Orange line heads up and then declines back wihtout making new lows and heads up again.
That would be rally bearish case for stocks and

From those 2 scenarios arise all other probabilities for currencies gold etc.

Good trading

boris said...

Update about currencies at DotNet site

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Yes, Dear Boris...the orange line is as low as you say but it has come down from the horizontal line of the background...I thought that decline from the horizontal line was the right shoulder...there are h&s patterns all over the place....so maybe i'm not looking at the correct one...

xerxes said...

Meanwhile euro heading for northern third AP

boris said...

Yes, Deaer Xerxes,
We are already there, The configuration though is strange. It is not exactly how the rallies should happen, but it will do for now, I guess. I emphasise the market is thin and anything can happen. Do not know If I buy into what is going on right now with EURO. Clearly Hourly is heading higher and nobody can argue with that.

I will say again, these kind omves are realitivly difficult to get on.

Good Trading

boris said...

So far, aa very fast and poweful reaction exactly at 3rd.

If this is a vishy washy day, that should end the move. The 3rd should not acceeded.

Good Trading

( I speak about EURO , of course).

G

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Good morning.
I hope that you are well, and that you have an excellent weekend.
Thank you for all of your good work again this week.

Bert

John said...

Boris,

Good morning

old john

boris said...

Dear Bert,
Dear John,

Thank you My Very Dear Friends.
Long time together on the net.

It feels good to hear you every morning. Just makes my day.
I try hard to make your day(:-
I know you do.

Frankly, due to some imporvements in AP calculations and DotNet(Thanks Dear Ivan) site creation.

I find a lot more time to do some good for all of us.


Internet was down for two hours I alrady missed you Dear Readers and subscribers(:-

Good Trading

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

Good afternoon...So if I am reading this correctly, we could expect the orange line to start making a turn upward convincingly before we can say that the high is in?

good trading dear friend,

Michael

boris said...

Deaer Michael,
See few posts down, we actually have it illustrated with the lines back to similar cases.

Yes, we need this Oscillator to bottom, go up a bit ( market lower) then go down a bit ( market higher) and then start turning up for final top in the market!?

That top may or may not be higher than yesterday, but , most likely it would be close.

Good Trading Dear Michael

boris said...

Please Watch carefully the EMINI is now at the FILAP ( hourly).

We could go to 961 and if do not stop at third 961, than we could run to 950

Good Trading

boris said...

This entire rally from low 820s to 890 ( almost) was accompanied, if not inspired, by the decline in JPY ( ie the carry-trade cost). Now that JPY seems to be getting in trouble, I doubt stocks can make as much of a progress. So watch JPY carefully ( AGAIN)!

Good Trading

John said...

Boris.

sent you email

boris said...

Dear John,
Do not you see 5 min
On Dot Net?

I do see it?

John said...

Boris,

Same spx number ?

lagscrew said...

buy twm 49.8

boris said...

Dear John, I see,
It seems like SPX did not register the opening range on my ESIGNAL.

Let me look at it again and recalculate.

Thanks for pointing this out

Good Trading

boris said...

The system is so slow, I want to cry(:-

Good trading.
Trying to correct the DotNet site

Good Trading

boris said...

Please ignore 5 minute numbers,
I need to recupture them and there is no way I can do that now.

The formulas in Spreadsheet are not flexible enough.

Sorry, please lean on the Hourly numbers Ignore 5 minute info

Sorry about that and
Thanks Dear John, for noticing the problem.

Good Trading

boris said...

Well, Market did take q quick shoot to the 861 area as previously suggested and now it is higher.
It is possible that in this slow, low volume trading market could meander today. In fact the inside day is defined by us as a day when the

3rd is not acceeded on the high or low AP side. That is likely to be kind of day to day.

Need to keep shorts stopped, trailed nicely, unless you have collected the profits already.

Good Trading

boris said...

Due to the Cinco De Mayo aproaching and the May being considered international labor solidarity month the things are slow, slooooow, slooooooower today

and It looks like it has gottoen even to me(:-

Good Trading

boris said...

Please do not go over board, But I think a little UNG can not hurt anybody.

Please use caution.
Accumulate little by little and do that on decline not on rise.

One can also place it a bit differently. Once can go for spread of UNG-USO That would basically mean buying the UNG and selling USO of the same dollar amount.

Please Do not , under any circumstances jump into this.

Do it gradually and on declines not on rallies.

boris said...

What is slow in the approach to UNG play.

I would say it would be no more than 10% of your capital and no more than 1% purchase at one time and purchase only on declines of 3% or more.

As long as those conditions are satisfied, I will not be angry with you.

If you do not understand the conditions speak to me, please.

Good Trading

boris said...

I will repeate here.
My prefered way of playing the UNG is via UNG-USO spread

Good Trading

John said...

Boris,

bought ung the last few days under 13 after you mentioned it last week.

old john

boris said...

Dear John, Enjoy.

As long as the position remains small and managable.

We will all enjoy.

There always next trade.
The trick is making every trade work eventually.

Not necessarly because we always pick the bottoms and tops. No, even though , we do plenty of that, the reason we should be able to manage these trades into gains is the Correct strategy coupled with the value propsition that the trade offers to begin with.

Good Trading all

John said...

Boris,
I always stay small. Learned the hard way once. That is all it took.

old john

Aboot-Bull said...

Dear anyone....

a strange thing is that gov's bonds bubble exploding is holding equities.... thats strange...

A-B

boris said...

Dear A-B,
When we predicted the end of the BOND bubble ( GIGA CALL). It was not clear , that is how things will work out, but that is the way it is. Somehow we seem to knwo what is coming.

Stocks are held by the same conviction that causes the bond rates rise.

Good Trading Deaer A-B

Aboot-Bull said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Aboot-Bull said...

Dear Boris,

in general you are 100%right but this time the mechanism is different.
i'll explain, equities are going nowhere for almost two weeks now.
it looks like it's being held, every end of session is a battle on "closing levels" it must come off, i guess it will.
now, when the 10yr bond crossed 3.00% market said, ok this is it, this is what we were looking for, its all over we can jump on stocks now.... but stocks stand still...
they never thought of what if bonds are nowhere near their fair prices, and that them selling-off has got nothing to do with equities at this point.

A-B

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Dear Aboot brings up very interestingly the bond issue...
Should bonds keep sliding, that, I would think, hurts the buck...So even if equities sink the EURUSD will rise...It's always a lose lose situation for the dollar...Do I have that correct?

boris said...

Dear A-B
I agree, to seat here and , day in day out, rationalise each move, is like being a talking head at CNBC or BLOOMBERG, the have to that to justify their existance.

Wile there is a hidden order underneeth all market moves and intercorrelation, we cannot and need not follow Market action with explanations in what is going on in bonds.

Sometimes it is just as good that Patterns dictate what should happen , even if there is no actually connection between intermarket moves or there is one that we do not "YET" understand.

So, in that sense, All I say is that My GIGA call, was not that much corrlated and is not correlated with what stocks market does, but with a more standalone idea that The decennial support point at 2 in 10 year notes was the evnet on its own that did not require anything else to justify it, being the low.

If one really insists on "EXPLANATION" then here is the one.

People are more confident about the stocks market and move money into stocks , that partially comes out of TREASURIES?

In time we may find a more "PROFOUND" explanataion, but let us leave it there at this time.

Good Trading Deaer A-B

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Have heard of correlation between the YIELD spread and Currency valuation.

So, what makes you think that , initially the Rise of Dollar INterest rates coupled with declineing/stagnant EURO interest rates will not pull the money into Dollar?

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

Ivan said...

Hi Boris,
when I look at pressure graph, I can't see the possibility for strong stock rally from here. I can imagine 15-25 SPX points more but...
Could you see any possibility for direct move to 940-950 from here?
I fact, I expect strong gap down opening on Monday (or gap up). But yesterday's action of GBP makes me worry for bear case... Thanks

boris said...

Dear Ivan,
I feel exactly like you,

But I view Possibility of strong opening not only gap down opening.
I will get pressure numbers now and see the MDS numbers

I may have more definiteve thinking after that.

I wold not worry too much about GBP, as JPY seems to finally head down at the close and I do not think it is down moving down.

Good Trading

boris said...

Sorry, Imeand in previous comment that I do not think JPY is done going down yet.

Good Trading

Ivan said...

Boris, USDJPY went down at the close. You mean, this move down (YEN up) should continue?

boris said...

Yes,
Confusing is not it,
Thanks for putting it correctly.

YEN QUOTE went down, that means Yen Price went up.

That means the USDYEN went down.

Correct, and that move is not down.
Strangely enought most of that move down came after the USA markets have closed 16PM,
The currencies closed at 17PM.

While EMINI was closing USDJPY was still about 99.40 , I think. And then came down to 99.04.

I thought USDJPY was tired entire day and 99.57 I said was the risk if somebody went short.
It has never cleared that level and was took profits around 99.45 on previous longs on USDJPY.

We shall see if I was correct, but so far so good

Good Trading Dear Ivan

boris said...

God dam,

I meant the move down is not done!!!

boris said...

MDS Stauts,

FREAKIN

UNCHANGED!

This looks to me like not other situation.

Is market just about to fall off the cliff?

Or to shoot up!

I would say that one more day down or sideways, may spell a big down day to follow.

Good Trading

Muthu said...

Boris,
Just subscribed to the tailored service. Many Thanks for your help.

Regards,
Muthu

Aboot-Bull said...

Dear Boris,

Than go long some straddles....

A-B

boris said...

Dear Muthu,
Would you plelase register on the
www.antisopitalist.net site.

After that I will authorise your id to access the Market Report page and you will be on your way to another happy round of subership.

Thanks for comming back Dear Muthu.

I remember you wanted to stay ouf of the market , due to the belief that it was going lower last year and we have, together , accomplished that.

Again, WELCOME back.

Good Trading Dear Muthu.
I will also email you new current copies of YBR and SEEFUTURE and new ones soon to be out ( in a month or so).

NEMASTE my Dear Friend Muthu

boris said...

Dear A-B,
I have not yet build a vorking strategy on how to capitalist on rising rates, because it did not yet rach the stage I like it to. Before I committ, but Maybe getting closer.

I will think of somthing(:- then.

Good Trading Dear Freind A-B

John said...

Boris

Like the "New" old chart

old john

boris said...

Dear John,
Yes, I just had to get some other things, LIKE AP automation out of way before I got back here. I really was flying a bit blind without the benefit of this chart. Thank God I am getting back to this.

Thanks My Dear Friend John

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Good Sunday afternoon Dear Boris...
May Day kept me away Dear Boris...
Just reviewed your site and it looks like a good Monday strategy would be a USDJPY short with a stop reverse ard 99.60ish...Do I have your blessings on that :-) I see a 3 buddha top and a loss of internal strength so I think I should yearn for the yen and spurn the buck :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Not now,
I think we should wait for Monday and take a look there, I would prefer to USDjpy to come up a bit and then short if, but let us wait for Monday Dear Xerxes.

Let us hope all configurations are right before we jump into it.

Good Trading
Dear Xexrxs, and sorry I was out on a little walk for couple hours.

John said...

Boris,

good morning, walking is great for the body/mind

old john

boris said...

Dear John, Agree,
After finding some time to do you. I agree again!

Good Trading Dear John

xerxes said...

Good evening Dear Boris...You needn't apologize Dear Boris...Everything at the moment is just fine...

Mike Truong said...

Good Morning Boris,

Brutish is pushing stronger again. Possibly a fore-warn to the bear that financials are going to run again and take SPX up to 910 or so.

So much bullish sentiments out there but I think politics has intertwine with the market much more now. It is almost as if Obama needs the market to continue to grind upward so that he can convince America to stay the course with his economic plans. I used to think that Wall Street will do its own thing but more and more I think there is some master plan out there to get Americans to feel good so that they will continue to spend. After all Americans as a whole only care about the next week/month maybe year but not 5 years, 10 years, and definitely 30 years down the road. I had thought that we had hit the wall of spending but I may be wrong. Americans will spend until we are broke then we asked for government help, even if it means bringing forward our children future productivities.

Anyways that is just my soapbox ranting. Good trading dear friend.

Michael

John said...

Mike,
remember. Obama is a chicago politician, nothing more, nothing less.

old john

Boris.

good morning to you,
see you in my morning

old john

boris said...

Well, Right now, there is a small risk on USDJPY only 12 pips will get you short with a coffee money stop. If it does not work RISKREWARD would have been big.
Frankly I would prefer this day to pass and see that next day also could not make high above 99.59. Then it would be even more probable USDYEN going down, but RR ratio will not be as good.

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear Michael,
I think GBp is tired here. It will take quite a bit of bogus news to move it higher here. But it certainly can.

Good Trading Dear Michael

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

GBP does appears to be tired but I would not rule out a jamjob from something to spike it toward 1.50 again. Also how high have you ever seen those stardom stocks numbers go? >1500?

Thanks,

Michael

boris said...

Dear Michael,
Unfortunately I have not kept the records of all of those, but I will see if there is a way I can reconstruct that and see what was the high, say in Octob 2007 or so.

Good Trading Deaer Michael,
Let me get back to you on this
Yes, agree, a single news can push the currencies here. Patterns though suggest that BRUTISH should have topped for a short period of time at least.

boris said...

Ok, Dear Mike,
It appears like, I have been overwritting these files all along before the records start to show up, about mid last year of 2008.

My Memory is not good enough to remember, these numbers, but perhaps one of the subscribers, if they kept these files according to dates sent could come back and tell us the way it was.

At this poinr I do not have all records going back, but it is clear that out of 8000 there may well have been over half 4000 stocks at some point AT STARDOM!

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Good Morning Dear Boris, Mike, John....

USDJPY reached 99.56...

boris said...

Well, Dear Xerxes, did you risk 10 pips?(:-

Good Trading Dear Friend Xerxes.

boris said...

Dear John,
See you in the morning

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...What was I suppossed to do? I must have missed the memo :-)

xerxes said...

I think I got it now Dear Boris...Short USDJPY right here...
I see 99.50 now....10 pip stop loss is a bit tight but why not :-)

xerxes said...

Well Dear Boris...I'm short USDJPY here

xerxes said...

What is so special about 99.56 Dear Boris? The daily shows that the 3rd Buddha is beginning to etch out the rounding top so it seems that 99.56 could be taken out...But anyways I'm strapped in....The EURUSD short seemed more of a sure thing :-)

Ivan said...

Hi xerxes,
are you maybe using Saxo Bank Trader as forex trading platform?

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Remember,
WE do not know,
We have some probebility of some things hapenning and if that is the case, the new high on USDJPY is not desireable and RISK is very low. That is all that matters here. I do not ever mind a small loss, as long as one of three or four trades produces a big gain to wipe out all those losses.

As I said, I would not do anything at this time, but if you are itching to do somethng, that is fine.

It is an easy trade and even if you lose coffee money you will quikly forget it.(:-

Good Trading Deaer Xerxes

xerxes said...

Well Dear Boris....Even small losing trades can buy a lot of coffee :-)

Dear Ivan...I don't use saxo Dear Ivan...I found that those platforms tempt me to over trade. Under those conditions I'm not thinking and if I'm not thinking I'm going to be a loser and Dear Boris doesn't like losers :-) But I think their platform is very good....

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....According to your hourlies, USDJPY probably won't fall that far so risk/reward not so 'life-changing' Dear Boris :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
98.50 being a target makes this RR
1 to 10.

That is not bad dear Xerxes, not at all. Becuase that says that We need two of these 10 such trades to be succesful and we will be making like gangbusters.

I do not know about you, but I am sold.

first We are usually better than 1 in 5 success cadidates and even if we are not better, that is a pretty good odds

Good Trading Dear Xerxes
We just need to make sure that we do not give up more than 10 pips and MATH will work.
Not matter what.

Ivan said...

Thanks xexces. I am using Saxo platform. It's very good in my opinion. They have recently added TradeCommander for automated trading on this platform. I think, I will try to implement trading system that will work with Boris' hourly and daily APs. I expect, such a one system should book more profits than losses. The idea is: every morning change the systems parameters (values for APs) and deploy the strategy... Should be interesting to see how it works. The only one problem is that's (almost)not possible to do backtesting. What do you thinkk about this?

boris said...

Right now,
I am only ready to give 2-3 cents risk no more.

If YEN wants to go higher it must do it now.
No risk here
Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Ivan...That is for Dear Boris to answer...I'm not a 'rocket scientist' so I can't say if what you're contemplating is sound...

Well, Dear Boris, I look at each trade on its own merits...I don't trade yen so I'm relying on your judgement which seems to be pretty good :-)

boris said...

I would stop 99.54 max

Good Trading

xerxes said...

10 pips is what you suggested Dear Boris...that's what I did...

Ivan said...

Dear xerxes, I know what is Boris' answer... He is not the fan of automated trading...

xerxes said...

DAX is screaming north Dear Boris and EURUSD not surging, yet, anyways

boris said...

10pips from 99.50 or higher.
Now that we got closer, I do not want risk a penny more than 4 cents

at 99.40 that is it
That is less than coffee money
Good Trading
Dear Xerxes

boris said...

If you want to take it up to 99.56 that would kill me/you, but
I would not rik absolutely nothing above that

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Ivan...I never tried automating....I have no opinion but if Dear Boris thinks it isn't a great idea, I myself wouldn't do it....

boris said...

High of last 5 minutes is 99.53.
As I said, I do not want to give this market any chance for anything.

99.54 would be my stop, but one can stretch it to 99.56

Good Trading All

Ivan said...

Boris, what is a difference between to short stocks here and to short USDJPY? Thanks

boris said...

Dear Ivan,
If you can not back test it , automating it is not a good Idea.
If you can back testet then that would be great.

Now, when automating, just APS will not do alone, one needs to incoorporate some other short term momentum/pattern help to help you to assertain the turn.

Dear Ivan , if you can write something in Tradstation Code, then I can back test it , but I would have done that , If i thought it is too easy. It is time consuming and while we know most of what we need . It really is a challenge to translate that into EASYLANGUAGE.


JPY BROKE wihtout reachint 99.53

Now the stop is at breakeven and no ifs and no buts

Good Trading Dear Ivan,Xerxes

boris said...

Frankly Dear Ivan,
I see better setup on USDJPY than stocks, but in general stocks should, perhaps with some delay, follow the USDJPY

GOod Trading Dear Ivan

Ivan said...

Xerxes, I would never use any automated trading system based on oscilators, MA,...
But it's differnt with APs. How many times have we seen how powerful are those points? That is the reason I want to experiment and to free myself of stressed decision making.

Ivan said...

Boris, backtesting is the problem because each day has new values for APs. I am not sure if I can use array of parameters...

Ivan said...

If the stocks don't sell-off today or tomorow, this rally will last untill the end of the world... :-))

boris said...

Well, We advised to short around 883+ , meanwhile we got down as low as 862 or so and I must assume that most of people took , at least enough profits to place a comfortable Breakeven stop on the rest of the holdings.

We did warn on Friday that bot breaking 861 would indicate the turn higher.
Or , only break below 861 would confirm further down move.

So, we shall see.

One thing should be clear. We must make money of this trade or should have made already.

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Ivan...No way to eliminate stress except through hard thinking and well placed stops....i could never trust a machine :-)

Ivan said...

Boris, do you follow the Atilla's blog (xtrends.blogspot.com)?
You know what I think about your market knowledge but Atilla seems to be great IT trader, too. And yes, you are investor not a trader :-)).
In short, he is fairly convinced, this is the top.

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
If you trade Attila, all the respect to you.

I trade with risks of of coffee money, he is playing martingale.

Excuse me Dear Xerxes, If you have trillions you could fast become billioner with martingales and/or will get a hear attach and will need treatment.

Sorry,

1) I do not trust that he does trades he says
2) I would never do them even if he did

Ok, Enough is enough.
I respect everybody in this business who can tell me they went long this market at 666 with less than 1 point stop

Come on Dear Xerxes.

I hope you will soon understand better what is going on in the market or you will be a victim of that nonsense.

Good Trading
I do not really want to touch other people and their methods.

They are all good until you try them.

I try to make money with almost ZERO risk

When you find another service like this , that you can actually trade please report again
While I want people here to devleop investor mentality, I would put my SHORT TERM trading skills with anybodies

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....You used my name in your last post but it was Dear Ivan that talked about Atilla the Hun, not I...I'm firmly in your camp :-)

boris said...

In this regard,
I hope everybod coming to this site will reread the comments by DXB on the first subscriber/reader comments section at the first page of this site.

That My Deaer Friend seperates me from from others. I do not do or pretend ( make believe) things that are not possible. Like dobling when I lose and if I do advocate that, mostly in the case of ASSET allocation scheme

But to double in the losing direction you have to have TRILLIONS and as I said you hope that you will end up with millions some day.

Good Trading

boris said...

Sorry, Dear Xerxes,

Name did not matter in the response as the response would have been the same.

the only thing I would say that, I hope Ivan develops better sense of what Mister A does and how he does it.

Nobody excep GOLDMAN SACKS with MONOPOLY money can trade like that.

Absolutely nobody.

Ivan said...

Boris, you are right.
But at the end, it's a metter of someone's attitude to the risk.
It is proven that big gains in accounts can't be achived without big drawdowns. This is the only truth.
Small risk-> small profit.
Big risk -> maybe big profit but the most probable outcome is a BIG LOSS!

boris said...

Most of people coming to us are seasoned, experienced and in some cases senior citizens.

I could , would never put them into the stressful environment. Even young people I would not, because it damages their nerves system just as much.

There is something in the investment field that measures the efficiency of an advisor.

it is called

Lo and Behold

RISK ADJUSTED RETURN

I hope everyone comeing to this site reads up about this concept. Anybody playing monopoly game can claim to have made money in the market.

But nobody can hide from this concept of
RAR ( risk adjusted return)

The simple point is that no human will ever follow the RISKy System.

One they they will break down mentally and physically.

That is reason I do not even want my subscribers to trade MDS.

So, Let us make sure, anybody that come here understands why they really come here.

This a site totally dedicated to the stress free investing, which is the only way for 99.99999999% of humans to invest.

As I said the only exception would be GOLDMAN SACKS

because

1) they have MONOPOLY money
2) They are insiders

Good Trading

boris said...

Deare Ivan,
Nowhere it has been proven that bigger risk means bigger gains.

That is only on a temprorary bases.

On a sustainable bases there is absolutely inverse correlation between risk and return.

Let us not confuse the RiskReward Ration with the RISK

Risk is absolute value

Risk reward is how much risk on took to gain certain Reward.


I challenge anybody to have made 100pts in SPX with 1 point stop.

that is 100 RR!

Hellow!

It does not matter how much money you play.

It matters what yoru RR is.

So, somebody investing with me 100 dollars would have had 10000 dollars on that trade ,

And somebody investing Million dollars would have ended up with 100 million.


The point is that RR was the same for both.

Now, I can sit here and let the trades go against me 60-100 points and then double and doubel again and hope that enough move will happen to bail me out, but do I have the money to double?

Did anybody ask?

Ok, I really Do not want to discuss Mr A.

God bless him.

Anybody who wants to have same elongated faces like his reades have everyday is invited to go there.

Good Trading

xerxes said...

I used to double down in vegas when I was given 2 picture cards in the game of 21 Dear Boris :-)

boris said...

Ok,
I have selected bad trade today.
While we should have not lost more than 5 cents on USDJPY, Deaer Xerxes was correct the USEEUOR short was a better idea.

Besides,I did say that once the initial break happened I would have been at break even. No risk at.

All , yes, this is a prefect example how I trade and it matters none if one had BILLION at staage or 100 bucks , RR was the same

Good Trading

Ivan said...

Boris, I wrote:
'It is proven that big gains in accounts can't be achived without big drawdowns. This is the only truth.'

I think it's clear what I wrote.
The people who claim to have 100-200% profits per year must have some significant drawdown in account (at least 20-30% in my opinion) in some moment.
I don't advice anybody to trade on this way.
I have only mentioned some person who seems to have good market understanding. I would stop with this.

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...It seems like the tight stop was toooo tight....One should give the trade a chance to unfold...
When stops are too tight, random movements take you out....

boris said...

Here is my short term trading approach.

If you must trade short term then please.

Never allow to lose more than 1/10 th of average dialy market move.

That will guaranatee that even if only 1 trade out of ten goes in your direction . You will break even!!!

The truth with my trades is that I end up, usually with either small gain . or maximum of 1/20th of the average daily move.

Can you imagaine that you need 20 trades to get only one good move to wipe out all your losses.

On has to be a very bad trader not to win with this approach.

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear Ivan,
OK, sorry, looks like I missted exactly what you said.

I think people have their EYEs and Ears and nobody is preventing them from going there and checking them out.

I would like to attend our own business. And help our own readers get educated and situatied mentally , so that even they can do it themselves.

Thanks for helping me in that effort.

And sorry, if I misunderstood you

Good Trading Dear Ivan

boris said...

Actually, the levels of 99.56 if somebody was standing there still have not been touched and USDJPY is still heading a bit lower.

Frankly, I would have been out by now, without any loss, but staying in does involve loss. That loss is intellectual captial. Need to watch the market across couple hours can be very tiring.
So, Please , if you are still in, save grief, put the stop at break even and get over with it if it comes up again

Good Trading

boris said...

I belive the main takeaway for us this morning is that DOllar is stronger.

That is a good sign for our intermediate outlook. With all the ramifications that come out of it.

Funny enough, EMINI still does not feel the heath. So perhaps if Dollar gains deeper today we can see that reflect in stocks as well.

Good Trading

Ivan said...

OK Boris. Sorry if I wrote something that you don't like.

If I may to notice, you are a little cocked in the recent time.
I would friendly recommend to you (and other readers) the books that changed my life: 'Power of now' and 'New earth' (Eckhart Tolle). I really think, these books are somethink the best what I can recommend to the friends and to the people of all religions and nations.

boris said...

Dear Ivan,
It is not what I like or not.
It is what is healthy for people that come here.

We offer the chance to get educated without stress and mental and monetary distruction.

In that sense, it is not what I like or not.

It is that Lot of people have hard time deciding and it is not healthy for them to be introduced to people playing martingale.

I am sorry. I do care about people coming, here.

pehrpaps some of us can take care of ourselves. Some can not and need to be protected.

Those that do not need protection will already be familiar with the site you mention and they have their own opinion about it.

But , I will , repeate. Yes, I would rather protect early investors from giving them those kind of sites.
They do not have enough tools to judge and what My response was to you , was actually act of protection for those who need it.

In that sense it has nothing to do with my liking. But it has to do with the following:

My goal is to teach people without stress and what you suggested , was not appropriate for that goal.

As I said, seasoned , among us already know , so I do not care.

Ok.

I will repeate. I consider my goal to learn good habits. They will find bad habits later( hopefully) and will know how to avoid it.

So, again, nothinkg to like or not like. But something to respond in proper context.

Proper context is simple. The person you mentioned is not a model for starting subscribers.

I hope this is clear. it has nothing to do with my parnoya, it has to do with my good goals

it is the same with People coming here and making misstatments about what wi do.

It is natural. It is not stress. It is healthy reaction to what is not correct and/or desireable

Good Trading Dear Ivan.
Books can help and thanks. But there is nothing like practicing.

Same way one can not be thought SEX without practice, One can not be thought trading without Trading.

It never worked and will not work. No book was ever able to help me in my trading. The only book that did is was the trading and hard work in understanding markets by getteing perls of knowlege from people like myself( before I was myself(:- )

Good Trading Dear Ivan

boris said...

USDjpy broke, again,

Perhaps for good tis time, but if you still in, Now for sure, stand at break even and let this very triky market alone.

If it makes money good.
If not, nothing lost and that is MUSIC to my EARS

Good Trading

Ivan said...

Boris, those books are not related to trading. They are for spiritual development. Though they can (and will) help in trading, too.

boris said...

Dear Ivan,
I understand,
That is why I say thanks for introducing it to our readers.

I am just saying that those kind of books are not on my reading list for traders.

Many good traders, never read a book let alone spiritual books.

That is not that I reject books.
They are good if the teach something.

I am just saying that to learn trading one does not have to read books about spritualism. I understand it helped you. And it helped me too.

But I state that Trader needs to trade, in order to become GOOD trader. Nothing else even comes close, even if it perhaps can not hurt to make one a better person.

Good Trading

Ivan said...

Dear Boris,
mental fitness is very important for traders. OK?

boris said...

Yead Dear Ivan,
And Most/all of it does/can come from correct trading.
If one can not figure RR no spiritualism will help, but if RR is understood , speiritualism sets in automatically.
Again nothing against , being spiritualist.

Good Trading Dear Ivan.

boris said...

By the way many more succesful traders were nonspititual and downright bad than the spiritual and good people.

That is an unfortunate fact.
Again , I would prefer to be in the spiritual camp,in and out of trading, but I do not find it to be the requirement for success.

Trading is most a robotic action and what really helps is to be become more and more abstract and indifferent and wiew your traders a spurely mechanical thing, ( ALMOST BORING, like any other JOB).

You know most of good traders, they are so SICK of their job that they want to make enough money for 1-2 hours in the morning and run aways fot LAS VEGAS.

How about that. Now that is not very spiritual, but I can grant you, that exactly what most succesfull of traders do.

They like to take the DAY off and entertain themselves.(:-
IT is almost the same like Michael Jordan and MAGIC being the compulsive LAS VEGAS junkies, after being almost sick of their day JOB, BASKETBALL.(:-

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Looks like i was stopped needlessly, especially if it manages to get below 99.26....

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Say thank you. You have been stopeed(:-
Lost 4 cents, Do not go to starbbucks today(:-

Actually, believe or not, I have reshorted when it started faltering again at 99.50.

That is an example, of being able to trade almost mechanically.

You run away when loss looks at you in the EYES and you sneak in back again when it goes away.

I suggested shorting above .50, at 54 you could have only lost 4cents(:-, If standing at 56 ( which I said was a stretch), you would have survived. So, you know I am happy.

For less than coffe money you had a shot and missed it.
Big deal wait for another bus.

I will deduce your today's loss from your subscription renewal, Remind me please(:-

Conditioned if this keeps moving lower and I make good money(:-

Now, if you lost more than 4 centimos, please let me know. I will YELL at you(:-

GOod Trading

Ivan said...

Dear Boris,
the facts are facts. I know it's true what you are writing.

I tried to suggest to you and to other people that the better way is to order the internal side of our human being at first. When you do that you will be succesful in external world, whatever you are doing (almost). I don't think I found your blog accidentally couple years ago...

Ok, this blog is dia(b)log today. I am stopping...

Ivan said...

Be careful, my broker just says:
Trade Idea - 11:11:08
Sostratos FX Daily Strategy: Buy USDJPY: 99,08, Target: 100,73, Stoploss: 98,63

boris said...

Dear Ivan,
Thanks,

You see, to conclude todays discussions i would say the following.

1) this was all useful
2) If we were not spiritual we would not give away so much info every day
3) If we were paranoyed we would remove the names of other site referenes , instead of arguing its merits
4) I appreciate that issues were raised and allowed us to address them.

You are right there is no point to flush these points to death, but enough has been said.

Thanks A lot Dear Ivan

Good trading

boris said...

Dear Ivan,
Never in my life, would I advise somebody to make the 50 Cent stop on a trade.
I do not understand that trade from the Risk Reward point of view.
It could work, I would not touch it with a 10 foot poll.

Well, besides, at 99.08 I would already have 40 pip gains!

Again, this is how we trade.
The simple truth is that nobody is able to trade like we do. Our risks are always small. And that is the only we will EVER trade.
Good Trading.

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...EURUSD hit 4th hourly low...What is up next in your estimation...

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
you know that we just bounced from fourth( exactly), trend is still down, but next stops down are fifth ( please look it up) and the one before at 1.3222

If it goes to fifth , it has a chance of really going down hard.
Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

Well Dear Boris, left to my own devices I would go long here...Do you see any strong confluences here?

boris said...

Deaer Xerxes,
I will levae you to your judgment, but I would not go long Dollar here, It is just too much of move already.

I wish I encouraged you to take that trade instead of USDJPY, when you first noted it, but now, I am reserved and , indeed leave to your devices.(:-

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

Dear Ivan...I like the long USDJPY here...But as it has been going sideways for past 24 hours, anything could happen. I don't think I have enough info that I'd label 'sui genesis' but the uptrend as I define it has remained unbroken since April 28th...I'm afraid to go long as Dear Boris is short :-)

boris said...

Actually,
If you guys read the BIGPICTURE comments, it specifically said that We think USDJPY is going 102 and meand higher, but we also said, there will be lower move before. So, there is absolutely no contradiction between our views, except short term consideration(;-!

Good Trading

Ivan said...

Dear xerxes, I understand you fully.
The first rule (even before Do Not Lose Money :-)) is: Do not be in position oposite to Boris' forecast!

Sorry, I can't help you for currencies. For forex, I am following Boris only. For stocks, I dare sometimes to trade against Boris' view ... But I do not advice that.

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...I view EURUSD as being in a trading range since it completed the move from 1.2965 to 1.3340...As such it has been bouncing from side to side of its ETB 13;0.5...It could go to the 5th AP which creates risk towards the 2nd daily low...But if one (and I don't mean The One) :-)) thinks that those lower numbers are in the cards, then one should also be long USDJPY :-)

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....I'm thinking of going long EURUSD not long dollar

boris said...

Deaer Xerxes, I can not support that either. But it is probably more supportable than the other way around for short term!!

Good Trading
Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

Well, Dear Boris...One can only go long or short :-)

boris said...

No Dear Xerxes,

wrong. That is the downfall fro compulsive traders(gamblers)

1) go long
2) go short
3) Stay out

These are the real choices

I hope this is the last time I have to remind you the elementaryity of this choice(:_

Good Trading

boris said...

Actually, Dear Readers, Dear Xerxes,
I am amazed that I have to address this issue.

Markets spend 75%+ in going nowhere. Whe is not the NEUTRAL position ( No position) an excellent choice is BEYOND ME and frankly, Beyond Comprehention

Good Trading

boris said...

I could rephrase my musings another way.

Why do people have hard time with the following.

MArkets are not knowable at all times to anybody.

I would rephrase it even more...

ONLY STUPID and encapable of changing that ( CHINES CURSE) will think and act like he/she know where the market is headed all times(:-

Good Trading

boris said...

Ok, I heared that...

What does it mean market is not knowable.

Here is what it means for me...

Risk Reward, Ratio is either not estiamable or bad enough for me to stay out. And that is all if I actually haveo some idea about direction up or down.

So, You see the complexcity of the decision.

a) I am not sure to begin with
2) I try to estimate RR and can not find it palatable or clear.

I hope that makes many things clear, why we could not be clear at all times about markets

Good Trading

xerxes said...

I wish I had gone long EURUSd Dear Boris....It looked like a clear trade to me...I won't ask next time :-)

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...with weak showing of USD today, how does that change your view going forward.....

xerxes said...

Anybody here?