Monday, May 04, 2009

Markets Waiting For resolution


This info os for 5/5/2009

Please make correction to the text inside Arrow ( better make higher shoulder is what I meant there).





Markets are still , mostly meandering in the trends started last month, but things need to come to resolutions soon. We shorted EMINI at 883, and got to 862 , I hope nobody is holding too much shorts and collected profits along the way. Whatever shorts are left should be stopped at break even.

153 comments:

John said...

Boris,

good morning, no shorts here, just waiting

old john

boris said...

Good Morning Dear JOhn,
And Good Trading
My Dear Friend

waldo said...

Good morning Ladies and gentlemen, The market has been acting like a runaway train without the engineer at the controls. The question is when is it going to crash. Apparently not all is aboard. waldo.

boris said...

Pending home sales
jump the markets

Good Trading

boris said...

Dollar is taking hit , it is not more needed as a crisis investment!

Mike Truong said...

good morning dear boris,

It is an interesting development of the march pending numbers. The catalyst to make that take the orange oscillator lower(?)

Good trading dear friend,

Michael

boris said...

Dear Micheal,
There is no a lot one can do , but wait for the makets to come to us. We are patiend.

The currency moves this morning are a bit too much, but still within the realm of nothing new.
IF euro was able to jump over 1.35 I would get more interested, but so far , I stand where I have been for last 3 monnths 50/50 in my Currency allocation USD versus EUROS.

GOod Trading

Mike Truong said...

interesting that currencies rallied back to its pre-US market high and stalled....hmmm

Good trading dear friend,

Michael

boris said...

Exactly Dear Michael,
So for now we are

UNCHANGED almost.


in currencies.
But stocks market , probably is not done rallying, so Currencies may still appreciate as stocks do .

I think Stocks could go to 899 sometime today tomorrow.

Good Trading

boris said...

And did you just hear this?

Now you can buy home or portion of it ( like kitchen + TOilet) buy bying security UMM and sell the same with security DMM

HALLELUJAH!

I used to say houses are like stocks and here we go, apparently this is

OFFICIAL NOW

(:-

GOod Trading

boris said...

I just want to know how at the home address mapped to these ETFs

UMM/DMM ?(:-

Good Trading

boris said...

One of the subscribers,
writhe to me.

Deaer Boris
"Lost a job. Can not pay for our service, but I really am in need to have it."

I wrote,
Dear XXXXX, Please user our service for next 3 months, and hopefully you will find a job and pay us. We will after that revisit the situation.

XXXXX writes

Dear Boris.

Thanks for your generosity.
I have some prospects that may well come true.




I SAY, In Public,

Dear XXXXX,
Let GOD be with you.

Well, that is what we do and did in the past as well

Good Trading

Mike Truong said...

dear boris,

You are indeed a good man.

Maybe we should just follow the YBR and buy every dips until otherwise. Too many of us are like salmon swimming upstream. many will falter along the way with only a few making it all the way. Hopefully unlike the salmon we will have enough energy left to go back to the sea.:-)

Good trading dear friend,

Michael

boris said...

Dear Michael,
We/I have made sure that at least, minimum I need to survive is invested in stocks and have done well. Unfortunately, I may not have been able to convince everybody of that

Good Trading

boris said...

Together with GOLD and commodity and bond allocations, we are doing fine.

If some us do not listen.

Well, perhpas they learn little by little

Good Trading

boris said...

Stocks may have hit the area of restistance. too close.

Good Trading

waldo said...

By looking at the ultra short etf, SRS no one believed the housing numbers this morning. waldo

syndroma said...

Good morning all,

Long time no see ...

Just my 2 cents, I am going to short this overbought market today.

Hope it will pay off.

Good trading to you all

boris said...

Not a bad idear Dear Syndroma, especially considering what I just said that we hit the very cose the resistance area, some shorts with tight stops would not bother me here Either. But with tightest of stops.

Good Trading

boris said...

I am not making this official short, because

a) we are not shorting site,
we are asset allocators
b) I would want only very sophisticated people to have gone short, Remember we announced the numbers way before they were hit.

syndroma said...

Dear Boris,

All the merit is yours.

My guess is that the risk/reward is on my side but I'd be the first one to recognize that shorting here is no less than a gamble.

The way to go for wealth accumulation is and will remain asset allocation. No question about that.

boris said...

Dear Syndroma

Thank you.
Good Luck and Good Trading

boris said...

I am collecting on my USDJPY shorts
at 99.03

Good Tradiang

boris said...

Why did I collect at 99 USDJPY
Because that was the 4th and bounce

Good Trading

boris said...

We expected 898 on spx, we got 897 almost so, only on point below the expectations.

Good Trading

boris said...

Gold is just frustrating everybody, by gyarating like a mad.
I still not favor gold , Until it goes over 955, but

OF COURSE,

I HAVE MY CORE GOLD HOLDING.

Not touching it, sorry, not even thinking it

Good Trading

waldo said...

looking at the volume no one is buying into this crap. waldo.

boris said...

usdjpy hits the fifth and comes back
Good Trading

boris said...

If you took the shorts, please keep it at .25 above the top of todoay. That should be less than 1.5 pt stop if emini is your game.

If you got enough, take some profits now( like half) and keep the rest ride FREE

Good Tradiang

boris said...

Stay short the market and lower the stops at break even

Good Trading

boris said...

Keep the shorts in place
and keep the stop at breakeven, should be above 894 or above 896.75 if you have taken profits and would like the rest to ride FREE trade

Good Trading

boris said...

If you have gains to hold you over 900 level in spx then place stop right above 900.60 spx based.

Remember only if you have gainst from shorting and collecting this morning

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...USD Index looks like it is ready to rollover...Not much time left for the buck it seems...

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
I do not have that view, not yet anyway.

But if it comes, I am ready ( half ready actually(:- )

Good Trading

boris said...

SPX high so far

899.98, hos doest that grab you?

Good Trading

boris said...

Hold you stops 900.01 On SPX bases

Good Trading

xerxes said...

I really have no idea about the dollar's trajectory in the future... I'm relying on you to show me the way.. But if you are chetzi chetzi now, that suggests to me that you lack confidence in your own predictions...Besides 50/50 split is what I do all the time Dear Boris cause I'm never sure about tomorrow :-)

boris said...

Ok, we leave this alone for a while.

There should be no loss anywhere which is what is imporant

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Short and long apart.

In a longer term, I have no questions whatever, I think Dollar is going down, but I am waiting for the Mid year to take advantage of that.

I can not see how you feel about asset allocation in general.

But this is exactly what it means.
Asset allocation means that right now I want to be 50% in USD and 50% not in USD and that is the end of the story.

Confidence is for those that confuse luck with brains.

My predictions being most spectacualr of any, do not onfuse me at all.

I know I could be

W R O N G

That is why I am where I am.

For all people you should know where the date is for me to be more aggressively cutting dollar out

so, I hope that it is a clear as I can be and was as clear as I could have been.

for months now I say I am waiting for the dates of Jun/July Break.

This has nothing to do with confidence. And yes, inspite of my stellar record of preditions, i do not put much weight in my ability to repeate it in future.

If this is not honest and direct enought , I do not know what is?

Again, I do not know future, I just play asset allocator best I can.

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

Remember my post earlier about Americans? Here is a biting satire from the Onion. Seems appropos for today run-up on fumes and hopes...

http://www.theonion.com/content/news/nation_ready_to_be_lied_to_about?utm_source=a-section

Michael

boris said...

Dear michael,
Thanks, Very remarkable

Good Trading Dear michael

waldo said...

Back from doing a little yard work, I feel like a fool for missing the biggest and strongest rally off the bottom of 666 in history. The boyz wants the upmove all to there selves because indicators has not worked since the 740 area. waldo.

boris said...

OK,

UNG is up 5% and doing well.
I do not suggest to increase the allocations here too much.

Please wait for pullback to add to the postions

Good Trading

Beavis said...

Market is simply biding time and preparing for a dump. The participation after the 20th has been nearly nonexistent. And, in fact we are only a hair higher than the 20th and that was nearly two weeks ago. It looks like players are bouncing and dumping from some data points.

Boris, do you have a potential downside target? I am dubious that we will retest the lows.

boris said...

Dear Beavis,
At this point I am more concerned where the highs might be , in time and price. Frankly, I can not see it, until I see the Pressure osicllator recycles and Until we see the Put call ratios smile to bears again.

So, it is premarture for me to be prognosticating the lows.

We could get any of the 50/62 FIBO corrections or even new lows, but first Let us see the highs, which could go to 920 or higher.
I will claim highs are in place when I see what I said ( PCRatio and Pressure oscillator, where I want them)

Good Trading Dear Beavis

I do agree this move is mostly deliberite and tired, but that is how bull moves LOOK
Surprise
Surprise

I am glad that My allocations are working well almost on all fronts.

20% stocks, 35% cahse, 20% In commodities( including gold) and 25% In short term maturity Bonds

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

Please let me know if my anti-establishment (antisopitalists) rant is distracting from your converation with other readers/subcribers. If not please indulge me in one more tiny rant.

I remembered when GWB started to bend the rules of law under the guise of national security. it seems now that BHO is willing to bend the rules of law under the guise of economic security. Ironically were we that much more secured under GWB's reign? And now will we have economic security under BHO's reign? I used to take offense at commenter (from another blog) characterization of Americans as "Dopes." I find myself agreeing with is assertion more each days....Very sad state of affairs in my opinion.

Thanks Boris - Please delete if you do not want this here.

Good trading dear friends,

Michael

jill said...

Re:COT report:

"...record levels for this cycle"

http://tinyurl.com/cz6qls

boris said...

Dear Michael,
It is your opinionn that rules are bend.

I have no disagreement that, either regarding the Last President or this one.

The cast of chartacters that come to Washington these days consider themselves, basically entitled to do to us, whatever their wish is.

goverenment, is nothing but a MAFIA and with American Permissiveness regarding government has reached the alarming state.

Too many people are corrupt. As I said, every administration FEEDS enough on boths sides ( right or left) to have the support for whatever they do.

Nothing new in this.
From what I understand you wrote, I have no quarrel(s)(:-

Good Trading

John said...

Mike

THEY want Americans to be uneducated. I go back to George Carlin and his talks about the lack of critical thinking. One can have a masters degree in whatever and still not critically think.

old john

Mike Truong said...

Der john.

The sad part is when you try to educate people about this, they stare at you like you are an alien or something. Worse are those who livelihood depends upon favors from the government. I think unfortunately America will have to truly be brought to her knees before these doe-eyed Americans will wake up.

Good trading dear friend,

Michael

xerxes said...

Okay Dear Boris....

920 is around the corner

John said...

Mike,

If you get a chance , pick up a copy of Empire of Debt--- great read. USA will not wake up, just like england did not wake up, or spain , or rome , or greece. A nation becomes THE empire, grows too proud, too righteous and its people the same way.
It then issues debt to supports its empire and then the downhill starts.

By the way, I am an American, fought in Vietnam in 67-68 and consider myself loyal. But, sometimes history is correct.

old john

John said...

Boris,

The pressure charts are working their magic. Called for this little run up.

old john

xerxes said...

Dear Mike...What leads you to believe that Americans will ever wake up?

boris said...

Dear Michael,
American people have learned that it is not the eduction that gets them somewhere, but hard cold cash in the pocket and if polititians can buy enought of them with your and my money so be it.

They do not want to be educated as the article says. They want to be treated like "CHILDREN"


GOod Trading

Mike Truong said...

Because I still have hope for America. I see the truth but I also knows that American people are inherently good just as all people of the world are. The problems always seems to be the govenments that although elected by the people, have so insulated themselves from the general public.

Michael

boris said...

Well, does anybody remember what woke up AMERICA in 1979.

When Dear President Carter send the army to execute in Iran and all they managed is to break down in the desert.

USA then has realised that something was wrong with Dear Carters message ( Beyond Smile(:- )

Dear Obama will have his moment too. The only problem is that whoever comes after Deaer Obama, will be worse than GWB was and Worse than OBame was because they all figure out ....

These Dummys In america , they are suckers for bogus solutions and more bogus soluttion polititians give them , more appealing int looks.

So, Until we get somebody Hitler like this will continue.

Now you ask , when?

Good Question.

Maybe our next president!!!!!!!!

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Mike....I view gov't as having the following functions:
(1) counterfeiting (FED/Treasury)
(2) kidnapping (prisons filled with victimless crimes or those who commit crimes against gov't edicts)
(3) murder (waging overt and covert wars, instigating insurrection/revolutions, sanctioning sale of drugs through FDA that maim and kill and countless other examples)
(4) robbery (taxes/inflation/fines confiscations, seizures...
(5) enslavement (military draft and upcoming national service)

They use the MSM and teaching utilities to help consolidate their usurpations and direct the vulgar masses as they deem appropriate..

So what is your 'hope for America' based upon?

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Well said(:-

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Thank you dear boris...Any thought for tomorrow?

gorli said...

Hi guys, if America cannot wake up, then there is no hope. No other nation has the wherewithal to be the moral guide for humankind. We shall see! Meanwhile, let us be good traders under "guru" Boris.
gorli

boris said...

Dear Gorli,
Amen,

As much as I like to be and teach investment, which is working, I must note that these crazy markets require someone, to trade, it is fine to be doing that within the context of asset allocation, or outside of it.

Now, if I am correct though, and the administration is succesful in creating the the crazy up and down market with inflation and deflation exchanging punches daily , starting late this year, then we better be good traders and keep the rule

DO NOT LOSE MONEY

and next.

Here is my belief.

If indeed USA is succesful in turning this situation around , then it will cause interest rates ( GIGA CALL?) to rise fast and over all beat the stocks market by even being in TBILSS.

Does that make sense? Is it is the only thing that makes sense.

Being in GOLD as insurance and In bonds of short maturities ladderd 1-5 years. One will recapture inflation two ways interest rates rising and Gold(commoditey) prices soaring. I just can not see how the stocks market will go sky high without causing the same with COMMODITIES. So, the allocation we follow has done a splendid job of preserving and providing protection against runaway markets as well.

Good Trading Dear Gorli.

Well, Dear Gorli, regarding wakeup in America, it maybe becoming more important that people in BRIC ( Brazil Russia India China) will become more like americans, because we are talking about mass of numbers of people that dwarfs America.

If these masses can be put into credit cards and zero down loans, can you imagine that?

Let us imagine
It probably is coming
They will have to do it as Americans inspite all efforts of administration, will probably change , at least , on margin their spending hapbits.

Good Trading

Mike Truong said...

Good morning to you dear Boris...I hope you had a restful night. I noticed that GBP hit the confluence of 4 hourly high and 2 daily high and quickly reverses down. I am still amazed at how scray accurate these APs are...

PS Last rant then no more ranting from me. America can stand on her on as I washed my hands of her doings. For now it is about my family well-being. I will not be my brother's keeper if he refuse to wake up.

Good trading dear friends,

Michael

boris said...

Dear Michael,
You are as entitled as any of us to express your thinking, hopes, about where you would like our country to be.

I do not mind your musings, I am not too far from you stands, perhaps I am a bit more cynical , age difference?(:-, because I have seen more of comings and goings.

In any case, you are working on your preception of the world when you vocalise it and that is not bad in itself.

Good Trading Dear Michael.

Yes, Those APs they are just as incredible as ever Even SPX has hit the 4th Daily, which is like having an earthquke( on probability bases).

Good Trading Dear Michael.

boris said...

Dear Xerxes, I think 1.12 area is important in Swissy today. In EURO 1.35 and 1.36 are both very important areas.
Do not know if we reach there, but if we do above 1.36 that would have changed a lot. As it is, the Weekly and daily trends have become positive now and that can not be ignored in EURO. Gold is threatening to do the same if it can jump over 918.

Dollar is over sold on the asset chart, but hey, we have seen oversold things become more oversold. I do not depart from pattern prediction that Dollar should get stronger into June/July, but if gets much weaker before then, perhaps Dollar has indeed donw what we preached for 3 years ( Bottom Passover 2008 and top 3 weeks before Passover 2009).

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

Mike Truong said...

Wow is all I can say. Maybe it is time to re-examine the bull's case. We know the market do not like to have too many on one side of the boat but in this case, the coordinated effort of the cabal banks with the blessings of their mafia governments have taken control of the market even if temporarily.

I think maybe they all have figure out that if everyone plays beggar thy neighbors, then no one has the advantage but the market will be flush with cash/credit again.

The sopitalists have figured out how to make a vast majority of people blissfully ignorant debt-slaves from cradle to grave. This eerily parallels the sci-fi film "the matrix." Hmmm...

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...So is short EURUSD the trade of the day? It has moved nearly 90 pips already so maybe it's getting old...

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
the markets work in one two three counts.
While I did not know the trade of the day will be EURUSD short, I COULDhave ventured in shorting it early this morning and risk no more than 10-15 cents.

It would have been based on knowlege. It almost never is.

it would have been based on reasonable RR, just like yesterdays USDJPY trade. I had a hunch, but it was really RR that pushed me to take position.

Now the RR is no more good. The train left the station. it was good this ZERO am(ET) when USDCHF was pulling back towards the lows. That was a place to strike.

Now, I am not a player or recommender. I am out again.

Good Trading

xerxes said...

dear Boris...what is this 1, 2, 3 count biz...
The eurUsd has hit support on 4 hr 1 hr and 15 min chaRTS...Moment of truth?

boris said...

Dear Xerxes, what I mean by 1 2 3 is that when the market tests the lows or highs 3 times and is not able to break lows ( highs) that is the place to take the risk in the other direction.

That is what I mean.
and that case was this morning

Good Trading

Mike Truong said...

Dear boris,

Well i had to finally capitulate what I thought would be longer time frame Short GBP. I had it at 1.49 but a draw down of 200 pips was too painful. I will wait for the setup again as I do not trust going long GBP right now. Hopefully that bigpicture pattern prediction of GBP will come true. Good Trading dear fried,

Michael

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

To think I had predicted that GBP would get back to 1.53 before turning over but I did not trust myself to hold that view. Still much to learn for me...

Good trading dear friend,

Michael

boris said...

Dear Mike,
GBP,
I do not think you should let GBP or anything go more than 25-40 pips , let alone 200 pips.

I am feeling bad the trade got that deep into deficit.

This is not the way we advise to trade.

you have seen glimpse of the we trade , in my discussions with Dear Xerxes, and Ivan,

I can not and will not ever let any trade go that far against me and I must have tailed to communicate the same to you.

Please, any time , you are set and feel quite and rested to discuss the issue. Give me your phone. We will go throught that trade and discuss it we will discuss other pointers you can use for improving your odds to begin with, but Never letting the trade go that far away.

This is fundamental.

Please accept that the call is on me to USA and I will spend as much time as needed for us to go over this and future trades.

Dear Michael. Please look around well, and reread examples of my recommendations and trades. Note how close my stops are and I do not care if I lost few cents or Dollars, but never the trade will run from us that much.

Unacceptable and I take resposibility to try and work with you that this does not happen again.

Love you Dear Michael.
That is what I m here fore to make you a trader that can stand on his/her lags.

If you faile, I have failed and I feel bad about it.

But I know after couple discussions and examples we will overcome this and you will never risk that much on a trade again.

Good Trading

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

don't worry about that. It is a loss that although somewhat painful is also a revealing experience. I have learned quite a bit from this about my trading habits, risk tolerance, and emotional state when I made that trade. As for the phone call, I will take you up on that offer in the future. PS. I normlly do not risk more than 15 pips on a trade. I am going to review my charts and my thoughts of why I stayed in the trade long after it had blown up. Thanks again for looking out for all of us. As they say, you teach us to fish but I must still cast out my line and take my chances on catching the fish. I am learning from you and other everyday that one should way for the best possible combination in our favor before we set out on a fishing trip.

Good trading dear friend,

Michael

boris said...

Dear Michael,
I am always here.
If phone is not convenient there is email.

Please, do what you said. God Loves you Dear Friend. you will find your mistake.

If you can not fiture out the way to put a small stop and play with it, perhaps that bus is not for you . Wait for another bus.

Dear Michael.
I am here, anyway you would like to communicate with me.

Please do your home work. I trust you will find a way

1) to control you urge to trade.
Take only good RR trades.
2) Never let the stop lapse. if you are not able to watch it. Just put the stop in and that is it.


How to evaluate RR?

Ok let us say you are at 3rd and looks like securit may turn. What is your reasonable assumption about potential move?

I would say conservative estimate is 3rd on the other side ( iside day). What is maximum potential?

I would say the 2nd Daily.

So, you know your loss is 15-25Pips
Your gain is min and max described above.

You devide these and you have your RR.

That is it. Trade did not work? some more analysis and no coffee for you for two days(:- because you lost that much. But you come back with one more "CHEAP" lesson from the Mr. market.

Thanks Dear Michael

xerxes said...

Dear Mike...Holding dollars has been a mug's game since April 28th...That makes me a sucker as well :-) I am way too chicken to short GPDUSD... You must be a Brit with gigante cojones :-) Dear Boris' stops are so tight they can even slide under a pregnant ant, right Dear Boris :-)

Ivan said...

Hi Boris,
do you see any significant possibility for today to be reversal day for stocks? Thanks

boris said...

There is a trade potential.

I want everybody to listen to me well.

The sell is at 896.75 on Emini or equivalent.

Now this means that the risk is high the stop initially must be at 905.50.

Now, the only way you can play this is as follows:

1) take a small position in Long SDS and watch the EMINI for equivalent stop( take , really , really small position), your stop is probably about 100 SDS points worth. So, you could lose 100 dollars with 100 shares of SdS or 20 Dollars with 20 shares of SDS.

If you are playing the Coffee money, then that is what you will do, maximum 20-25 shares long SDS. OK?

even if you lose, this would be an education to you. First you would have tried to short a very overbought market with a reasonable chance to go down. Then you would risk only couple cups of coffee money and your loss can be written of as SBUX es loss as ou will not go there for two days(:-

The other way to do is for those who have a lot of money to play with, to make this trade still a lowr risk by not risking more than 0.25% of your risk money. That means that if you play with 100000 dollars your risk will be no more than $250 dollars. Now , if you lose that , that meas that you do not go to California Pizza Kitchen this week. That is all, but you would have gotten education on how to play market.

This is a freebe and I do not guarantee that you will make money. In fact, it is almost as likely you lose money.

So, if you do that, you would do only because it is fun way to learn about markets.

Remember no more than COffee money at risk for enexperienced and undercapitalised traders

(:-

Read the disclaimers on this page, Please

Good Trading

boris said...

A jump here in SWISSY will could open a way for a strong move for a dollar against the EUROs
Good Trading
If failed to clear 1.13 then Dollar is in trouble again(:-

Good Trading

xerxes said...

So Dear Boris...What is a good RR number...

xerxes said...

The sticks are dollar bullish against the franc and possibly euro on the hourly

boris said...

Dear Xerxes

RR=1/5 is good
as it means that your risk reward is 1 to 5, which means at that rate you can win only one out of five and still not lose in the market that is great.

That is a minimum RR, I would play with.

Of course I am better than 1 to 5 in my probability of winning trade, but I am greede on RR. I wnat it on my side all the way.

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear Ivan,
We mentioned that 7th +-1 day is the Potential turn date.

Well we are very close!

Good Trading

boris said...

Gold seems to be getting serious again?

If it jumps over 919, we could be in a new ball game with GOLD

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Feels like they're getting ready to decimate the dollar

xerxes said...

Hit first on euro

Lawrence Chiu said...

I am new to this website. In the last 2 months, I have been shorting the market and this has been a disaster for me and my family. I have lost almost 50% of my life savings. It's a horrific outcome that never in my dreams, I could imagine.

I have registered on Boris' antisopitalist website. Can someone explain how to use it to trade? I don't see any trade recommendations, but I do see the AP numbers. Can someone go through an example of a trade using these AP's?

Boris says "Yoare given, on a given day set of numbers and you wathc the market go there, if the market shows loss of momentum while approaching one of these points then we fade the approach to that point and go in the opposite direction fo the Attraction Point reached."

How do I detect market shows loss of momentum? Thank you.

alexnewbee said...

Dear Boris

thanks for your site and your time. trying to learn from you. just shorted gbp/usdt 1.5162, sl 1,5181.
what do you think of this trade?

boris said...

Dear Alex,
Dear Lawrence,

Look at this example, GBP has fourth at 1.5177, that is usually a good place to see if market can be shorted.

I would approve it with a very tight stop about 1.5159.

Small risk, big gain possible.

Dear lawurence do you see that?

That is what I call small risk.

See also Risk Reward Discussion above with Dear Xerxes.

Good Trading all

alexnewbee said...

edit: changed sl to 1.5161, so it is free ride now.

boris said...

Dear Alex,
with 1.5159 you are already in profit.

Nothing to worry, FREE TRADE for you

GOod Trading

boris said...

Dear lawrence,
Did you see how micely Alex played this game.

He is not even subscriber.

I do not care if Alex makes money on this trade or not.

I know he will not lose
And I 100% aprove his actions.

It is almost the way I would have played this.

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear Lawrence,
Also please read the reco about the EMINI trade. It is right up in this comment pages.

Good Trading Dear Lawrence

boris said...

Dear Lawrence,
I do not know if we can jump you from loses to gains immediately, but I can guarantee you that you will quicly learn value of APs

WHY!?

They and only they allow US to play the game with small losses.

Only because we know the are there we short/long market near them and place small stops


Is this easy or what?

Forget the way you lost money.
that is not our way.

Welcome Dear Friend

boris said...

Dear Alex,
Readers,
Now that I gave you FREEBE GBP

4th at 1.5177

the
56h is at 1.5262

boris said...

I meant the
5th is at 1.5262

boris said...

Ok,
Dear Lawrence,
Looking for an example.

If was Alex, and had considerable money on this trade.

I would take 50% profit here

Good Trading

boris said...

Here menat the 1.5130

that is a 30 cents gain and
half now rides all the way it can go

Good Trading

boris said...

CONGRATS
Dear Alex,
YOU should give the lessons here instead of me

Good Trade My Dear Friend.
I should just provide numbers(:-

alexnewbee said...

Dear Boris

thanks a lot.
I shorted 50 k only, so it is just a coffe money, if it were 5000 k, I would follow your kind advise, but since it is just small change, I will let it go.

boris said...

Dear Alex,
Great.
Just trying to examplify, your really , really excellent trade today.

That is kind of trades I love.
It is such a plelasure.

Good Trading Dear Friend

alexnewbee said...

Dear Boris

my reason - if the markets start to roll over, and considering this "the Treasury Department will auction $71 billion in notes and bonds this week, its largest ever quarterly refunding. See details on Treasury’s Web site" chances are high, I think GBP could go much lower, may be below 1.5 so let it be.
I am very thankful that you brought me to the idea of GBP.

Good Trading.

boris said...

Very good reasoning Dear Alex,
But frankly, I view your tecnique the most beautiful thing. And that would be if I COULD NOT TELL GBP from WHEAT.

I would not care why you did this trade, but Your execution is something I would like everybody new to see on this site.

This is how we work.
We risk COFFEE money and will try to make the MOVE MONEY ( POPCORN included and the transportation included(:- )

Good Trading

boris said...

Remember,
This is not a little peoples game either.

I could not care less how much money player has.

He/she would just go for the max of 0.25% of the holdings loss.

For people who play for millions of dollars that means few contracts in currency futures markets and thousands of dollars at risk and 10s of thousands as reward.

It is all matter of proprtions related to your amount of capital.

Ok.

So that this is cleear.

We follow exactly the same purcantage rules for all. Those that have Billions will risk and make Billions.

Those that have hundreds of dollars will risk and make COFFE money.

That is just the way it is.

Nothing we do here dependes and/or restricts any player of any size

Good Trading

boris said...

I am now canceling the reco to sell the stocks market EMINI at 897. For ventursome it is even better to sell market somewhere higher and take even smaller risk.

Be careful, I am not specific here, but I am always specific about the amount of money you play.

Ok it is for COFFEE money you play.

Some people have 1000 Dollar COffee though(:-

Good Trading

alexnewbee said...

I love GBP now!

sorry for too much emotions.

boris said...

Show Of hands for Dear Alex

80 points in profits and counting

Good Trading Dear Alex

alexnewbee said...

I will be modest - changed sl to 1.5127, so it is abt 40 points.

what is Your opinion, Dear Boris?

boris said...

Dear Alex,
I have no problem with your stop placement, Perhaps I would take profit here and let it come up a bit.

80 points are a good profit.

But either way. I like your game plan.

Good Trading Dear Alex

alexnewbee said...

Dear Boris

now I follow your kind advise and close it at 1.5062, for 100 points.
Thank you dear Boris and Good Trading.

alexnewbee said...

instead I short ES mini here at 904, also as per your kind advise.

waldo said...

The fed chairman is lieing again saying housing is stabilizing. They showed on tv this morning that banks in california that has foreclosed on homes is tearing them down, even new homes that was not quite completed. What is wrong with this country? Why can't the banks let the homeless veterans live in them. The greedy ##$$**. Waldo.

boris said...

Dear Alex, this must be your day.
Good Luck My Dear Friend.

ENjoy.
Just be as careful here as you have been on GBP. You will do well today if you be careful now. Do not let the success let you guard down. Stops in right places and there we go.

With GOds help you can make more or just make enough today

Good Trading Dear Alex

boris said...

Dear Waldo,
Yes, Dear Waldo,
Money, which they produce at will!

Got through their heads and they are out there to destroy anybody who stands their way towards destruction of our beautiful country.

Good Trading Dear Waldo

xerxes said...

Has the fever broken for good Dear Boris?

alexnewbee said...

Thank you Dear Boris, I am just a humble student of yours.

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
We see what we see. All of us see that something seems to be changing today is not it.

Even Dear Alex coming from Greenis very nice blog is a surprise today and see how well he seems to be learning what we should do , even as he never was my subscriber and never asked me questions before.

Apparently thoug , Dear Alex was watching us to learn.

All the respect. To Alex,

In any case. Yes Dear Xerxes,

Looks to me like there is summer coming with some changes. It does not mean the Stock market rally is done, but it may mean, that this phase is perhpas done.

Good Trading Dear Friend Xerxes

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...It doesn't really matter if EURUSD goes up or down...I just want to know which way the wind is blowing so that I may trade with the wind at my back :-) Anyways Dear Boris, what I learned from you and Dear Alex today was that we need a lot more hourly AP's for currencies... The more there are the better to find good RR trades :-) BTW, why USDCAD daily but not hourly??

boris said...

Dear Alex, we can have USDCad hourly if you are very much interested in it, I just did not think too many people trade this pair intraday.

Our intraday info is not very limited, but it is not unlimited eitehr. Frankly I can hadrly follow what we have so far, so(:-

Good Trading

Let me know if you really must have USDcAD hourly we will put it there. But I warn you that I dot watch that pair that much and may not be as useful with information on it.

boris said...

This last comment was addressed to XERXES, not Alex really

Good Trading

Ivan said...

Hi Boris/xerxes/All,
I think it's a great improvement of your service since you have started to publish hourly APs every European morning. I have recognized many times how powerful they are.
It would be great if you could expand the list of securities for hourly APs. It seems to me they are more important (useful) than 5 min APs.

xerxes said...

Anyways, Dear Boris, EURO and Quids are still in an uptrend, at least hourly, resting on support....Dollar bulls have a lot of work to do, still yet...

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....Dear Ivan and I have a confluence of views on the hourlies, so please expand them...Please add USDCAD....Actually, if subscribers would post that a promising pair had moved to a 4th or fifth, the community as a whole would benefit...More eyes= more trades..

boris said...

Dear Ivan,
Let us expend if we need to, but I would like expension to be voted and then approved.

No problem we can perhaps easily accomodate few more and I do agree,

Hourly APS are worth a GOLD of their weight. And gold reversing for today without breaking 919 may make it worth even more(:-

Thanks Deaer Ivan,
I would accept proposals for expension, perhaps 2-3 items can be addes without much burden
Good Trading Dear Ivan
And thank you for your help with the web site.

I would not be as comfortable now, If you did not creat this for me.

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Agree, the DOllar bulls are not out of woods.

Indeed agree with that

USDCAD, fine that is one choice that we will present.

As I said I am ready to entertain only 2-3 securities at this point, in addition to 6 that we already do.

Good Trading

boris said...

Just in case you wondered the traders are out to lunch in New York and they care not what happens with the market until next hour(:-

Good Trading

xerxes said...

caveat emptor:

May 5th, 1893: The stock market crashed on Wall Street, resulting in the closure of 600 banks, the bankruptcy of thousands of businesses and the unemployment of 15 to 20 percent of the U.S. work force.

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Very interesting peace of info.

(:-

Good Trading

boris said...

New Lows , if reached today in the markets, we could have a pretty bad day today.

Good Trading

boris said...

Ok, hear this.

Talking head at Bloomberg.

Dollar is higher because Fed Chair Dear Bernanke repeated what was already reported already yesterday...
Namely that Housing Pending sales numbers were higher than expected and the PMI numbers were showing a "less bad" diffusion index state at 43 compared to 3.2 few months ago.


Ok, So, then what the same talking hads say yesterday when the numbers were announced.

they said that...

Dollar went weaker, because the stronger numbers suggested the end of "crisis trade"

Now did you get that dear Readers?

Do you really understand what, so called, experts at BLOOMBERG and CNBC are telling you.

I hope you do(:- ?!

Good Trading

alexnewbee said...

Dear Boris

I think it is really easy to understand what these talking heads want to tell us - that they have no clue, but if they want to find an explanation for enything, they will suck it out of their finger.

boris said...

Dear Alex
As somebody that worked at Bloomberg, As a trading systems Architect, I can tell you that you are sblotely right...

About fingure sucking (:-

Good Trading My Dear Friend

Ivan said...

Boris,
do you agree with me that EUR should be stronger against GBP in the next 1-2 months (if USD gets stronger)? Thanks

boris said...

Dear Ivan,
I do,
IF that is the case, GBP may end up being one of the weakest currencies in that period.
But I would especially say that against SWISSY as well.

Good Trading

boris said...

The only saving grace for GBP maybe if JPY takes a dive, which it could.
So, one would have to watch carefully the GBPJPY as well.

Good Trading

boris said...

I would also say that the AUD may fare really bad in those circumstances.

Good Trading

xerxes said...

So Dear Boris...Do you have a vision for equities tomorrow? Was today a 'pause that refreshes' on the way to 940?

xerxes said...

The euro still looks good Dear Boris...It hasn't cracked, yet...

boris said...

I think one has to sell tomorrow against the highs of lalst couple days. and if that does not work take a small loss or even go long from that loss stop point.

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

Beavis said...

This rally is done. Well, except for rounding errors. Liquidity is being withdrawn from the markets over the past two weeks. That is the real driver of this rally and the real downfall. We may fill the gap at 920-ish but those are simply rounding errors.

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
There is not point in knowing what market is going to do.

It is EXTREMELY important though to know

WHAT YOU AS A TRADER ARE YOU GOING TO DO!
I am not joking either.

I really really hope that one day people understand that what makes me what I am is not the considerable knowlege of the markets, but the recognition that inspite of that knowlege, I really know nothing and all I can do is trade and control that trade.

I believe you will also , would have grown up when you understand that much of what you are asking , really has no answer(:-

At least from me(:-

Good Trading DearXerxes.
I do not want to stop asking questions though(:-

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
I meant

I wnat you to keep asking questions though(:-

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear Beavis,
Thanks for your answer/opinion Dear Friend

Thanks and welcome back

Good Tradiang

Beavis said...

It's not an opinion. Money moves markets. All of the technicals are simply self-fulfilling realities of abundant or lack of liquidity. Cheers.......

boris said...

Deaer Beavis,
Who can argue with

"Money Moves Markets"

That 3m or Mcubed again(:-

Thanks Dear friend Beavis

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...I know diddly about the markets...All I have are charts and you...Dear Beavis seems to know about liquidity levels, from whence I don't know, but I'm happy he informed us....You have tools and experience that give you a feel of the rhythm of things, so I ask that you verbalize that...The chat helps to keep me sane as trading is a bit solitary Dear Boris. :-)

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...I never trade S&P...I only look at it as you suggested to do so. I thought about trading DAX...I wanted to ask Tina what instrument she uses but she doesn't seem to be around anymore...

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
I am with your sentiment.
I understand what you say.

Cheers Dear Xerxes

Good Trading

boris said...

Now that you mentioned Tina Dear Xerxes,
I am sure she will hear you and answer(:-

Good Trading

John said...

Boris,

a little action tonight with the currencies.

talk to you in morning, should be interesting

Mike Truong said...

Good morning Boris,

I wondered if today's top in GBP was the top of the rebound as alluded by you recently or are we in for one more turn up? I really hate counter-trend rallies.

Good trading dear friend,

Michael

boris said...

Dear Micheal,
As you will know , we think that there is one more MDS cycle between a more pronounced top and here. That is surmised from the Pressure Chart among other things.

If we assume that as a working plan then we must accept the possibility that this top in GBP is the top or near top, in time and space. That is we could see higher GBP, but likelihood is not better than 50/50%

I will let you in something interesting also.

BKX has hit the FAHAP( Frist Annual High Attraction Point) two weeks ago and this top of two days in the stocks market did not cause the BKX to acceed that!

Now that is a divergence and at the VERY IMPORTAN AP at that.

I pay attention to those things and since the GBP faith was pretty much tied to the financials lately...

We all need to make some decisions here.

Have that all said and done, I would say that what really works is a "TEST" not the knowlege.

Like yesterday ALEX requested test of GBP and sold with an overbought condition and small stop loss.

It worked, It may have not. there was no guarantee whatever, but RR looked good and GBP looked tired and stop was small/acceptable.

As part of me tranfering what I know works for me to our subscribers and readers. That trade , which I approved, is a classic me, and classic how this site is build.

It is build on making people happy, even if they lose. because when losing a little and getting a lesson from the market , that is a good event. Of course, winning comes when not losing much. And winning is even better.

But it all starts at not losing.

That is where APS are absolute brilliant tools. They allow us to enter a trade and put the stop loss with a smallest risk possible

Anybody that has ever seen me trade, go crazey how I play with 2-10 cents tops in QQQQ's for example.

No I am not crazy. I trust the AP system. It should either work or give me a small loss that I can laugh and spit at , all I want to(:-

Good Trading Dear Micheal.

I do not mean to load on you, but I use every opportunity to educated the audience.

Thanks for the opportunity My Very Dear Friend

boris said...

Let us move to new post Dear Readers
Good Trading