Wednesday, May 06, 2009

Looks Ripe For a test

915.2645
916.7145
919.0635
921.9925
spx
909.1455
907.6955
905.3465
902.4175


DID YOU REMEMBER OUR FAX RECOMMENDATION? SEE PICTURE


I mean the shorting test for the market. Kind of a "STRESS TEST" for DOW(n)? JONES(:-. Yesterday I suggested shorting at the top of the range and market has gone back above that overnight , reaching the old high area and now we are down over 12 points. So, one can not always play the COFFEE money stop and go away. EIther a small position should be played overnight or none. So, now, perhpas if market pops, we can administer a STRESS TEST of ours on it and sell it, but if market goes down without giving a chance that is fine too. We are never chasing anything. I personally have reduced more of my exposure to everhing and have either protected and/or rebalanced things in a way that I am now less in everything,but cash. So my cash is now at 50%, while stocks are protected , but 15% and Commodities and bonds have been reduced to 15 and 20% respectively.

86 comments:

xerxes said...

Good Morning Dear Boris....

boris said...

GooD Morning Dear Xerxes,

Good Trading Dear Friend

alexnewbee said...

Good Morning Dear Boris

My short from yesterday was left with SL 5 points above my entry and I am going to keep this position for a while for reasons I said yesterday.

Good Trading everybody.

alexnewbee said...

Dear Boris

tonight I opened a small short in soybeans on 1109, sl 1117.

what do you think of it?

Thank you.

Good Trading.

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Thank you for adding USDCAD to hourly AP's...Could you kindly report the price in inverse to what you wrote so that the numbers conform to the daily...Now the value of USDCAD is 1.1764 and it is too confusing to constantly invert...Thank you

Ivan said...

Dear xerxes,
for trading DAX, I can recommend one German site: www.godmode-trader.de (technical analysis).
Every morning they publich daily DAX outlook (for today http://www.godmode-trader.de/de/boerse-analyse/DAX-Tagesausblick-fuer-Mittwoch-06-Mai-2009,a1229617,c20.html). I think they are the best site for technical analysis in German 'Sprachraum'. I don't know if you speak German...
Using this together with Boris' APs it could be possible to make some money... Good luck

boris said...

Dear Alex,
If the thesa of Dollar needs to get stronger is correct,
Perhaps SOY short is not bad idea together with gold short etc.
It is all how the stops are played.
While Dollar is not out of the woods yet, when it is , it maybe a bit late to short things.
I do not closely follow soy market at this time, but , in general, commodities may have had it for a while at least.
Now, I am more constructive about commodities for later time of the year and do not aggressivly short any of them, but they have come up, perhaps too much.

Good Trading dEAR aLEX

boris said...

dEAR xErxes, I will try to redo the CAD

GOod Trading Dear Xerxes

boris said...

Silver looks, like tired at this point as well.
AGain, I like silver for later time, but it could be in for pull back.

GOod Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Ivan...Thank you for the info... Unfortunately, my German is a bit rusty....Is the pricing real-time or delayed? I didn't notice...

Ivan said...

xerxes, http://www.godmode-trader.de/realtimekurse/

Not professional real-time but OK...

xerxes said...

Dear Ivan...Thank you again....Great resource...

Ivan said...

One more good and free resource for forex traders:
http://www.dukascopy.com/plugins/fxMarketWatch/

xerxes said...

Dear Ivan...Thanks again...

Ivan said...

Boris, please read my question about Gold on AS.net site. Thanks

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...I was watching USDCAD this morning...When it went below the third intraday, I put in a buy order at the 4th....But it bounced and never looked back....So basically, I was either too greedy or too conservative and botched the trade...So what should I have done?

Ivan said...

Dear xerxes, that is what I mean under automated trading based on APs.
1) I can have as many systems as I want
2) Each system is for one pair
3) When the prise reaches the Third Hourly ->enter the position with tight stop loss. The same on Fourth and Fifth. If position is profitable take some profit and move stops. Very straightful. Systematic trading without much job.

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
This was a nice trade.
Hourly channel is bend down and market went to the second IHAP(HOURLY) and hit ABSOLUTE 100% BULLS EYE

AMAZING , just never amazes me this staff.

YOu did well, perhaps you sat just too much before, because it hit the bulls EYE. So, My advise is that next time either you place a stop a bit before the BULLS EYE and see it exectued or better yet.

YOu do not really know that it would turn, So, you would have waited watched the semblence of the turn happen and either made just below ideal entry point or still would have missed the trade. It, essentiall was a no test proposition. Just hit and run. BASTARDS.

You did what you had to do.

Now use the second rule of hours and repate with me

Never worry about the BUS that you missed. Wait for the next(:-

I would, really, though prefer that you would not place the stop , but would jump on them when the turn was becoming as more apparent event. I do not like for them to know I am there. I just spy on them and drop at the least expected for them time. But then I would hang there fo while to click the stop loss trade or put it in after the market got away substantially from where My stop will be placed.

YOu did good.

Thats all you could. Just suggesting a more refinement ans sophistication.

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

boris said...

Ok, Dear Ivan, that question was responded

Good Trading
My Dear Friend

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Thank you for the reply..I inverted the AP's and the 1.1735 low was between the 3rd and 4th intradays, no bulls eye as you said...It turned on a dime, yes...The reason I put a buy in below, at the 4th was because you said probability of success was higher at 4th than 3rd (duh); BUT had I had another indicator conflating about the 3rd it would have been a no brainer and I would have bought immediately, even if I would have paid 1.1745 or so, but I had nothing extra to work with...

xerxes said...

Dear Ivan...Now I understand what you want to automate...I don't know if the machine would outperform you yourself placing trades...You'd have to backtest it or do a prospective study for a while...I'd be interested in the results...

xerxes said...

Another thing Dear Ivan...It seems to me that these trades off the AP's is episodic and good trades are found in different crosses each day, so just having a program alert you to the presence of a potential trade could be enough as you could then decide if the ducks are aligned to your satisfaction...If Dear Boris likes that idea maybe its a go...

Ivan said...

Dear xerxes, yes, there is a option when you deploy automated trading system on Saxo Trader: do you want the trades are executed automatically or you will only get the alert and have to manually confirm the trade. I still think it's a good idea to research this stuff when I find the time. I know, my bigest problem in trading is mental control, so this is something for me...

Ivan said...

This morning I was looking for someone who would bump Brutish GBP ... It looks now, there is someone on horizon...

John said...

Boris,

Good morning. I remember the days when you would trade those Qs for a few cents. It was great.

old john

boris said...

Dear John,

You know markets are not same liquid any more, did you notice that My Dear Friend.

It is a bit harder to do it now, but I would not change anything If was still doing that.

Good Morning My Ver Dear Freind John

boris said...

Everybody , when you have a chance.

Would you like to see how one of our BOND like stocks, called FAX did?

See this body of this post. Not just comments. See the picture in the body.

Thanks and Good Trading Dear Readers

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Good morning.

Bert

boris said...

Dear Bert,
Very good morning to you My Very Dear Friend

boris said...

Have they cleaned the shorts or what?
That is what they would like to do bastards on the floor.
The stress test would start when we see markets back into the area of 901-895

Good Trading

boris said...

Please remember, there will be no STRESS TESTS until the market goes back to the 895-901 area.

No shorts of any kind yet please.
There is a resistacne right around 910-911 on EMINI Daily Third. But let us not do anthing yet.

Good Trading

boris said...

If you short here, it will be less than even COFFE money risk

Please, PLEASE, heed to this
idea

boris said...

remember, if we break here on the upside it will be 920 very quickly.

No or very low risk here and out instantly

Good Trading

boris said...

remember, if we break here on the upside it will be 920 very quickly.

No or very low risk here and out instantly

Good Trading

boris said...

Market is held here without being able to back off or break out of this 910-911 range.

It will do one of those shortly though!

Mike Truong said...

Good morning Boris,

Look like GBP is going through one of its flat channel period maybe (200 pips wide channel) we have had about 3 of these the last month or so. The duration is about 4-6 days. As of right now Brutish is still in an hourly up channel, daily up channel, monthly up, weekly up but turning. Only the shorter time frame are flat. Maybe 2-4 more days before we get resolutions?

Good trading dear friend,

Michael

boris said...

At this point right here, Market and trading has nothing to do with knowlege, if you do not understand this level is important , you do not need to be trading.
Market unable to move away from this point for over half an hour now.

Imagene that(:-

This is now the game of nerves(intellectual capital).

Those that brought the market here are threatenning to take the market higher and those that shorted are hoping that market backs off finally.

meanwhile a lot of INTELLECUTAL CAPITL is expanded here on both sides.

The only problem is that BULLS have an advantage in this phsycological game. They have profits to hold them over and shorts do not!

Ok. If you stressed get out.
If you can risk COFFEE ( or two) money stay in.

Levels are clear, we break here and 920 will be a very possible.

Good Trading

xerxes said...

They opened with a boom Dear Boris....Are they gonna fade away now?

alexnewbee said...

when I look at Euro I would say the chances are high, but I was wrong last time.

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Look at the war at 910 and tell me!

As I said I am trader not fortune teller.

I frankly do not know , but brobability seems to shape up for this being a strong resistance. at 911.

Good Trading
Dear Xerxes

boris said...

I agree With Alex,
Watch the currencies

Good Tradoing

xerxes said...

Dear Boris/Alex...Gold and euro are fading it seems....You may not be a fortune teller Dear Boris but your prognostications are far better then mine :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
No you are thinking like me.
Looking for clues, rather than looking for abstruct answers.
Good, You are really looking at right things . Stocks are backing off and GOLD and EURO seem to fade

So, what do you do, you lower the stop to break even in stocks now and go for a walk(:-

Good Dear Xerxes, Next time I will ask you what is bound to happen(:-

Good Tradiang

boris said...

This now is another test of nerves for shorts.

If next 10 minutes does not break the 911 level strong , expect sharp pull back

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...I was looking at the S&P for clues to the direction of currencies, not the other way around :-)

boris said...

Ok, Dear Xerxes,
This is improvment today. We start looking both ways OK!(:-

Agreed(:- ?

Good Trading My Very Dear Friend Xerxes,

One day I will sit here you will be telling world , what is going to happne to the securities and I will be (second) happiest man after you(:-

Good Trading

boris said...

Bulls could not be helped even as they dialed 911,

Sory on the other side there was silence.

No help for you bulls at this point!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Esentially COFFEE stop worked .

Who said you can not have 1-1.5 stop in EMINI. Only Inexpereienced think so.

It woeked like charm,

It took somebodies heart for 1 hour , but it survived


Hallelujah!@

Are you people learning that it does not take billions to play the market and it does not take big risks.

Big risks mean big losses.

Small/SMART ( AP based risks) mean profits

Keep that god dam stop at 911 or brak even and see if you can make million pesos today

Good Trading

boris said...

This may be one more chance to stick it to the bulls and take their horns away.

Shoot for all or NO loss here.
Stand at breakeven and teach these suckers lesson that when they bring prices to APS , we will be there to stick to them every time

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...They did call 911 and Ben was in the lieu...Just wait a bit till he boots up his laptop :-)

boris said...

Yes, I have heared Dear Ben takes a long time to reboot(:-

Good Trading

boris said...

Stick it to the BULLS, take half of the positions profits.

let the rest ride, till we tell you to stop

Good Trading

waldo said...

Good morning all, I have been drawing trendlines from the lows and the spx daily chart has a bearish rising wedge and it needs to break the 880 to 900 level and the measured tgt is 772. A move to 940 would be a complete retrace from the january highs. The fib tgts for the down move is 836.46, 804..38 and 772.61. Hope I said this right. waldo.

boris said...

Dear Waldo, welcome back
Good Trading to you Dear Friend.

boris said...

Does everybody see why This trade worked.

ONly because There was an incredible 4th DAILY(HUH!) AP around 911.

Do you see why we make money or at least never lose money?

There is only one thing responsible for that AP system

END OF STORY


AP SYSTEM IS THE GREATEST MONEY MACHINE EVER BORN

Good Trading

xerxes said...

EURUSD putting in a hammer Dear Boris and when all you got is a hammer, all the shorts will look like nails :-)

boris said...

Deaer Xerxes, I see that and that is why profits should have been taken and only half or less shorts should be active in the market at this point.

Hammers do now always worl out though. Ofthen do though(:-

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....Scuttlebutt is that Ben is workin' the repo desk himself and he won't stop until every last antisopitalist capitulates :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
there is exactly ZERO(0) chance that this ANTISOPITALIST will capitulate.

I am not the kind of a beast anybody can get.

Long Time tested rules keep me in the game foroever.
And everybody who dears to learn form us will be the same

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

Now isn't this the truth Dear Boris :-)

Stocks mostly rise on hope
13 minutes ago
By SARA LEPRO
AP Business Writer

(AP:NEW YORK) Investors found another reason to buy up stocks Wednesday after a report indicated job losses might be slowing.

The ADP National Employment Report, an unofficial gauge of the labor market, said that private sector employment fell by 491,000 last month, a huge improvement from the 708,000 jobs lost in March. The ADP report said unemployment is likely to rise for several more months, but at a slower rate.

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

I am still trying to find the 911 Emini you reference early. Is that from yesterday 5-5 file or today's file 5-6?

Thanks,

Michael

boris said...

Dear Micheal.

You have SPX daily, you do ot have EMINI daily.

Just need to take the SPX daily ans subtract difference of 3 or so points between futures and Cash

Good Trading Dear Michael

boris said...

I think, it is important for clarity that I will add

EMINI into daily list as well.

Dear Michael, I appreiciate you pointing out confusion.

I shall make it easier for you.
I can and I will Dear friend

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear Readers,
Profits were taken,
The market is trying to move higher, Not much to do , but wait for another day. Just keep the stops where they were at breakeven if you have any shorts left.

Enjoy the gains. The battle is won the war goes on.

Good Trading

boris said...

Well, So far the Short Positions , left over are alive,
Do not give any profits away.
Break even is the worst Position you should assume.

Good Trading And Keep up the good work

boris said...

Shorts are still working

Keep stops at BreakEven

Good Trading

boris said...

Well, I must assume that every breakeven is now out.

Enjoy the gains.
Look foro next time

Good Trading

waldo said...

I am so glad to be a taxpayer so I can help the banks with more billions of dollars to help the poor rich ceo's. BAC only needs another 35 billion to do the job and there stock is getting rewarded today with a very large gain. What a joke this govt. is. waldo.

waldo said...

The treasury is doing controlled leaks to the press about the banks so called stree test of who needs it and who don't. waldo.

boris said...

Dear Wadlo,
Unfortunately, instead of being the market driven situtuation. Now we got the Government driven Situation.

There is very little we can do now. Until revolution comes(:-, but to follow what comes our way.

Good Trading

boris said...

OK,
EMINI is not the only place where our readers could have made money.

How about UNG ?

UP 7% today

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear Subscribers
See comments about GBP , GOLD, SILVER at the DotNet site

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Have a good night Dear Boris...
Same to everybody else...

Beavis said...

This move is so contrived. Low volatility like this makes me suspicious of an eventual murderous decline.

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Thanks and have a good night.

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear Beavis.

Move is a move, even if contrived.
This level of 920 was predicted by us as eventual resistebce area.

Frankly much more than that would be hard to understand at this time. But so, fare , while not forecast, the move can be justfied.

After all we just where we where before drop in January!

Good Trading

waldo said...

May 06
wednesday update
SHORT TERM: banks need more capital - market rallies, DOW +102
Overnight the Asian markets were mixed. Europe opened lower but closed +1.0%. USSA index futures were lower overnight, gradually drifted higher in european trading, and then spiked higher when ADP's generally unreliable employment index reported job loss at 491K v 708K. At the open the SPX hit 911 and rallied to 915 by 10:00. The market then immediately pulled back to 904 by 10:30. That was the low for the day. The rally then resumed as the SPX hit 914 by 12:30, 908 by 1:30, and made a new uptrend high at SPX 920 (+38%) by 2:30. A pullback into the close was followed by another rally at the SPX closed at 920. For the day the SPX/DOW were +2.0%, but the NDX/NAZ were +0.15%. Bonds were +2 ticks, Crude rallied $2.40, Gold rose $8.00, and the Euro was higher. Support for the SPX now notches up to 912 and then 848, with resistance at 935 and then 961. Short term momentum again got overbought and displays a slight negative divergence. Tomorrow, the weekly Jobless claims, Productivity and Unit labor costs at 8:30, and then Consumer credit at 3:00.
At the open we adjusted the short term count to reflect the SPX rallying above 906. The irregular B wave we had been counting exceeded the 1.618A relationship. The adjusted preferred count now reflects that Major A has not occurred yet. We maintained Intermediate wave A at SPX 833 and Intermediate wave B at SPX 780. At the SPX 876 high we have placed a Minor wave A of Intermediate C, and a Minor B at SPX 827. The rally from that low appears to be an impulsive Minor wave C of Intermediate C which should complete Major A. Thus far, this uptrend has rallied 38% from the low at SPX 667. A similar event occurred in 1929, when the initial surge of that Primary B wave rallied 37%. However, that rally occurred over weeks, this one has taken two months. There are some interesting fibonacci relationships with this new count. Minor C = A at SPX 923, and Intermediate C = A at SPX 946. With the OEW 912 pivot being exceeded today the next resistive pivot is at 935. This is in the middle of both fibonacci relationships. The market is now about as overbought as it was during Intermediate wave A on the daily charts. The weekly's display the most overbought condition since the bear market began. Also there are negative divergences on all lesser timeframes. In other markets, while we have been waiting for Gold to confirm an uptrend it's companion Silver has already confirmed a new uptrend from its recent mid-April low. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend hits SPX 920
LONG TERM: bear market
Waldo

Muthu said...

Boris,
Kindly let me know if you send me the turn dates to my email ID.

Regards,
Muthu

Wanderer said...

Hi Waldo,
Thanks for the update.
Would you please credit the author of that update?
If it's you, then double thanks as I have enjoyed your updates and charts for a few months now.
All the best to you.

Bert

Hopper said...

Hi Boris,

I haven't been trading for a while. My day job had me traveling and working crazy hrs for more than a month, now my work load is drying up. I been learning more about trading (picked up Dynamic Trading - Miner, and more) and have been polishing my indicators (and trading system) further.
For the past 2 years, You, the MDS, APs, YBR, etc. have all been insprations to me.
Thank-You

This blog is growing, I see comments numbering to 150!! My problem is I can't find the time to read them all.

Good Trading and Cheers to you all

Hopper said...

Hi Bert,
Waldo's comment looks like it came from OEW Tony.
Cheers

xerxes said...

Good Morning Dear Boris...

xerxes said...

Dear Ivan...Had you automated AP trading, yesterday you would have lost on the CAD as it blew past the fifth and then stagnated...

boris said...

Dear Waldo,
Thanks for your update.
whereever it comes from. I do think that we should give people the credit if it comes from some place that is not our own thinking.

Thanks for updates again My Dear Friend.

boris said...

Dear Hopper,
Welcome back Dear Friend

Good Trading to you.

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...workin' today??

valry777 said...

hi BORIS,
today MDS give ,,BUY SIGNAL,,
in april 9 was start ,,SELL SIGNAL,,
and index cloused april 8:
dow 7,837:s&p825:nq 1,590.
today indexes open 8,400/1,733/919.
looks like it's was ,,buy signal,, .
how signal work? if it's work...
thanks,
valry