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Help me answer the question Please? What are we experiencing? Is this a bear market rally or cyclical bear rally?
Please understand, there are these nagging questions ever since 666 was hit on SPX. Is this rally
1) Secular Bull Market rally
2) Cyclical Bull Run within General Bear Market
3) Bear Market Rally
Ok, what the hell are these terms?
Here we go. Secular Bull market is , if you can imagine, when every 3,4 year we get new high in the market( on a real , noninflationary market bases). Examples are years 1949-1963 rally, and 1982-2000 rally. Cyclical bull run is a rally like 1973 rally and rallies till 1982 that, on inflation adjusted bases did not go over highs of 1967, but reached almost as high and higher on nominal bases. And then there are bear market rallies , like all rallies in the period of 1930-1932. where the market kept making newer lows and certainly not reaching the highs of previous 4-5 years.
Ok, now that we have defined, more or less , what we mean by terms. Where are we? Help me please!
I think we are in either Cyclical bull run or in Bear Market rally. Certainly not in the Secular Bull Market. Having that said, when Am I going to know and tell you that we are or are not in a Bear market rally. What difference does that make? Ok, here is the difference it makes. If we are in 1930-1932 type Bear market rally, then we should just about be crapping out and stopping any rise above where we are. Anything else would seem to be time and price wise out of character from that bear market. On the other hand if we are in the Cyclical bull run. Guess what? We could go as high as 1600 on SPX and at least 1060 may not too far for this rally eventually. Well looking at YBR one may get some answers, but I cannot divulge that at this point.
Regardless, I can let you in on the secret. There is only one category, ONE ONLY(YES, HALLELUJAH!) that will keep you above the water , housed and clothed and safe in all three market environments and even more so, if we are not in the SECULAR bull market( which we claim we are not in).
YES , that is a SAFE DIVIDEND PLAY.
America, Do you Hear this? In spite of my broken ENGLISH that gets bad day by day, I hope I can still say this in a way that all of you can UNDERSTAND. Play of SAFE DIVIDEND was the PLAY and in many senses is still the Investment PLAY you want to go with, regardless of where you think market goes.
So, For DUMMIES LIKE me. It is was/is the easiest decision to put Portion of my money in the SAFE DIVIDEND PLAY that will keep my family supported No MATTER how well my brain perceives the current investment environment.
I LOVE TO DO OK, even when I am wrong and the method I preach Is the Methods I use and it is already proving a gold mine to anyone who listens.
While details are preserved for SUBSCRIBERS, I have told you FREE, Dear Fellow Citizen how to survive and what to do. God Bless you. I think, though I kept my promise of helping you through these tough times. I can only hope , you are listening and doing what needs to be done