Saturday, May 09, 2009

Help Me With This question Please

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Help me answer the question Please? What are we experiencing? Is this a bear market rally or cyclical bear rally?

Please understand, there are these nagging questions ever since 666 was hit on SPX. Is this rally
1) Secular Bull Market rally
2) Cyclical Bull Run within General Bear Market
3) Bear Market Rally
Ok, what the hell are these terms?
Here we go. Secular Bull market is , if you can imagine, when every 3,4 year we get new high in the market( on a real , noninflationary market bases). Examples are years 1949-1963 rally, and 1982-2000 rally. Cyclical bull run is a rally like 1973 rally and rallies till 1982 that, on inflation adjusted bases did not go over highs of 1967, but reached almost as high and higher on nominal bases. And then there are bear market rallies , like all rallies in the period of 1930-1932. where the market kept making newer lows and certainly not reaching the highs of previous 4-5 years.

Ok, now that we have defined, more or less , what we mean by terms. Where are we? Help me please!
I think we are in either Cyclical bull run or in Bear Market rally. Certainly not in the Secular Bull Market. Having that said, when Am I going to know and tell you that we are or are not in a Bear market rally. What difference does that make? Ok, here is the difference it makes. If we are in 1930-1932 type Bear market rally, then we should just about be crapping out and stopping any rise above where we are. Anything else would seem to be time and price wise out of character from that bear market. On the other hand if we are in the Cyclical bull run. Guess what? We could go as high as 1600 on SPX and at least 1060 may not too far for this rally eventually. Well looking at YBR one may get some answers, but I cannot divulge that at this point.

Regardless, I can let you in on the secret. There is only one category, ONE ONLY(YES, HALLELUJAH!) that will keep you above the water , housed and clothed and safe in all three market environments and even more so, if we are not in the SECULAR bull market( which we claim we are not in).


America, Do you Hear this? In spite of my broken ENGLISH that gets bad day by day, I hope I can still say this in a way that all of you can UNDERSTAND. Play of SAFE DIVIDEND was the PLAY and in many senses is still the Investment PLAY you want to go with, regardless of where you think market goes.

So, For DUMMIES LIKE me. It is was/is the easiest decision to put Portion of my money in the SAFE DIVIDEND PLAY that will keep my family supported No MATTER how well my brain perceives the current investment environment.

I LOVE TO DO OK, even when I am wrong and the method I preach Is the Methods I use and it is already proving a gold mine to anyone who listens.
While details are preserved for SUBSCRIBERS, I have told you FREE, Dear Fellow Citizen how to survive and what to do. God Bless you. I think, though I kept my promise of helping you through these tough times. I can only hope , you are listening and doing what needs to be done


D said...

Not the bottom. The dollar weakness will temporarily export some deflation to europe through the EUR/GBP. They will love that...not!

boris said...

Dear D,
I never said this was the BOttom, still do not.

But from here to say that this is 1929-1932 style bear market is a LOOOOOOOOOOng way. Of course, I said repeatedly that I expect new lows into 2010-2012, bet that smells more like the 1970s Inflrationary action than the 1930s deflation. And therein lies my original and now reinforced tilt towards this rally being a Cyclical Bull.

When can I tell you I am wrong? If and when this market is going to make new lows before September this year.

Then and only then I would assume that 1930 style deflation is back with us.

Good Trading Dear D

Good Trading Dear

Yad said...

How are you feeling about the shekel now. Is the June/July strength for dollar now a forgotten possibility based on the last few days/last week? Or do you think we are still in for quick dollar rally and then down to these lows again? This has been a pretty fast and steep cliff from 4.25/6 to 4.09 in less than 2 weeks?!

boris said...

Dear Yad,
$USD rally into Jun/July has not changed at all.

The question of the size different of course.

I have only assigned a 50/50 probablity of 4.25 evern bein bettered on SHEKEL and Shekel has stopped 10 or more times at that level. Amazing as that sounds, I think we could get there again and with the lesser probability acceed that level.

We shall, see.
I hav no doubt that rally is coming. Our Dollar Asset Oscillator is as oversold as I have ever seen it. Of course it get more so and , so I think Dollar has perhaps little more in time and price to suffer, but rally into JULY is not at all discarded at this point.

Good Trading Dear yad

xerxes said...

Hey Dear Boris...Doing a little Sunday work and I see you're at it again :-) Trust you had a great weekend...I was lookin' at some S&P charts just now and it looks like we could get an inverted H&S with the right shoulder needing to be made...
That would suggest that the buck made its high against the euro...But as there is no law that the right shoulder needs to be made so we could be lookin' at a one-armed bandit here :-) So my question for you is...What about gold here? If the buck doesn't have much of a rally coming, I figure that gold won't decline much. And if that is the case, it seems to me that it would offer far more speculative gains than simply a long EURUSD position... Your thoughts Dear Boris :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
We have send the GOLD asswet chart and SILVER cycle charts and discussed Dollar at lenght here and at the Dot Net site.
At this juncture we will refrain from too much public comments on anything short term as we are "watched".

Any, important questions will only be accepted and answered on the DotNet site for next few ctitical days in the market.

Good Trading Deaer Xerxes

xerxes said...

Good Morning Dear Boris

xerxes said...

Should we have a celebration now that EURUSD is off 40 pips...

Ivan said...

Good morning All!

Boris, do you have some link where I can see the exact different between emini and sp500 cash? Thanks

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Some of us can celebrate any time for any reason.
YOu decide(:-

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear Ivan,
Do not you get that

Besides we now have added the daily EMINI and Daily GOLD, did you see that?

Good Trading Dear Ivan

boris said...

LAdies and Gentlmen, let us move to new post
Good Trading

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