Friday, May 15, 2009

Going for the top?

892.85 895.62 900.11 905.71 spx 881.17 878.40 873.91 868.31

We rallied yesterday. Not too strong, but nevertheless gain. We could come down today, but equal possibility exists to plow higher here, which is where we can make some important decisions.


xerxes said...

Dear Boris...I watched part of a piece by Alex Jones on Obama and there was a short segment within it where Alex interviewed somebody that had contacts with members of the Bilderbergers...Anyways, the info that was passed on was that these guys were going to drive oil to 150 and equities to 1998/99 levels...Of course, this info was supposedly provided ex ante...The equity run is intended to suck J6P back in with whatever he has left from the housing debacle...Then they crash the thing, wiping out Joe for good...The youtube piece is called: "The Obama Deception HQ Full length version" in case you or anyone else is interested...

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Good Trading My Dear Friend.
You are just pointing to what I already knew for years.

Presidents are nothing more than men/women in front of the curtain, the real operators are behind it and they are determined to destroy average American.


GOod Trading
Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

The point of the post was to relate the target for the S&P and the supposed source of the info and if it conflates with your work, Dear Boris

boris said...

This comes from Dear John

Shorting These Stocks Verboten Good Trading Dear friend John

Ivan said...

Hi Boris, is the JPY sign of hope for stocks today?

boris said...

Dear Ivan,
I am not sure, it can go both ways.
IT is the trader that has to find where things will work.

Sometimes it is hard(er) to tell what is coming.

The best way ever is to test, smart , intteligent way against APs

Good Trading Dear Ivan

Ivan said...

Dear Boris, in fact, I knew what will be your answer.
Every day I understand more and more what you are speaking...
No forecasting, only facts and decisions based on key points (APs). That is the formula.

boris said...

Dear Ivan,
Forecasting is ALWAYS dangerous.
GOD KNOWS WE MADE FORECASTS that would stand human hair on and succeeded.

Sometimes it is a relatively easy call, because valueations or oscillators are so stretched, that one can try and make forecast.

But in the end what counts is what happens at the local decision point.

If it turns out to be success, then one can ride it longer and call it a forecast/foresight or whatever.

But in the end. There is on thing.

TRADER and MARKET and that is very simply a proposition lf trader haveing an idea and testing it.

Is not this even how science works.

Did not Dear Edison try 1000 differenc things before he stopped on some alloy of volfram?

If Trading can be equating to science then one must test and verify and test and verify constantly.

Now, theoreticians like Dear ALbert Einstain and Boris Chikvashvili( I am theoritical phyisicist too(:-) can think and build thought experiments all they want, but if they want to prove it is correct they must test it in the LAB ( that is when I left the physics upon finding that it would TRILLIOS of dollars investment to test the quark confinment theory, hello(:- ).

For trader the same way the LAB is the markekt.

Anybody who thinks Somebody can give them digest trades to swallow ( we do come close sometimes) is loony and does not understand elementary thing about markets.

Now, There is another part of the trading. Gradual, Asset Valuation based and that has a relatively more statistaclly grounded science that basically compares assets and makes decisions about where STOCKS should be verys metals or where GOLD should be versus OIL and etc.

While these change as well, they have more historically stable relationships and more mean reversion qualities.

Like the stocks can go up on AIR for 20 years ( 1982 1999) but the relantionship between the Stocks And Gold Has to eventually come back to the mean. Which means either one ( stocks) have to come down or the other ( Gold) has to go up to make the reversal to the mean possible.

But A stock or the Stock Market can be in a multi year moves without reversions to mean.

In any case, there is what I call an ASSET ALLOCATION trading and there is speculative trading.

First is playing two or more securities against each other. The latter is just evaluation of single securirity against DOLLAR!

I think the latter is much harder to do in short term.

But again thanks for the question. I find it very difficult to communicate with people who do not grasp these relatively simple principles.

Trading is a personal event and even I I was the best short time trader, those follwoing me will see two/three trades that I have lost and will NOT ( repeate WILLNOT) take the fourth trade. Which most likely, statistically will be susccess! Rermember I am the best trader and statistically I should be succesfful

Also the risk levels and duration tollerances are so varied between individuals.

Unless I could have somebody working with me for months on a one or two trades a day, I do not think they will eventually learn what I do. No two humans are the same.

In any case.

Yes, Market is very artful science. And remember GOD does throw dies, so by saying science we DO NOT MEAN THE SCIENCE OR MARKET ARE DETERMINISTIC! far from it , bot are qunatumly uncertain and therefore undeterministic.

Nevertheless being a science!

PRACTICE (trade exectution)

Repeate that billion times and you have a trader in MAKING.

Good Trading

boris said...

Ok, I can not correct it all, but I will correct few.

GOD Does Throw dice!


Good Trading

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Good morning.
Good trading.
Good living.


Good weekend:)!

boris said...

Ok, we put a trade Yesterday and it was profitable.
We suggested short term traders take all profits and the Assset allocators to keep the position with a stop at 884. This morning we suggested that those who could place a stop 887 by 7 Am NY TIME and that has been hit as market traded 886 at 7ET. So again gain, but small one.

Now, for those that due to the market day time trading being closed, the ASSET trade is still on and keep it there with a 884 stop again for today.

Such is our approach.

We never risk much and almost always trade profitably.

So you add up what what we do.

We make money without developing ulcers, instead of losing money and developing ulcers.

We do not believe in high risk trading and somebody does, we are willing to teach.

On the other hand somebody requriing constant gains and risky trades is invited to go check out other "get rich quick" places.

We will never be that.

We are , actually, ASSET Allocation shop that happens to have best short term trading mechanism AP system.

Those who can not understand why it is the best ever system I say, it is because , at those AP points one can tarde with low risk stops and thus we almost never lose money. And when we make it, it is almost pure profit because of no loss.

We could have stayed with yesterdays long , but risk was too much


A good short term trader could have tested market at todays 5th LOW ILAP, but nobody becomes a good traders wihtout a good practice with APs.

Good Trading Dear Subscribers,Readers

boris said...

Deaer bert,
Good Morning
and Good Trading My Dear Friend


matt13 said...

Dear Boris,

An EXCELLANT post on the protected site, especially for those that are not able to follow the markets and the blog hour by hour. Really like the protected site. Looking forward to your timimg reccomendation on metals and S&P, remaining patient which has been hard for me to learn.
Love the education that you provide each and everyday on the blog. Please keep teaching, I need to learn the lessons that you provide to novice investors and sometimes trader. I like to reveiw the blog content every evening when I cannot be on line everyday.

Thanks for the offer to renew our subsciption at original fees. I look forward to another year of all you have to offer. Will renew soon.


boris said...

Dear Matt,
I understand that there are many people that appreciate no noncense approach to investing.

No sugarcoating of any amount will help if ones advise lost money, but people of much bigger ego and money have lost money , while we have succesfully navigated

THE WORST ( agree ? )

Investment period I have ever seen and I am not 29 you know? Actually I am not even 49 any more(:-

Dear Matt, I appreciate that the seasoned people understand that the investment is a hard and patient work and we do all we can.

1) to protect your money
2) to keep your purchasing power
with inflation.

If we can do that the rest will com on its own.

Good Trading Dear Matt,
Always appreciated your statetsman view of money managment.
Good Trading

boris said...

If you did not trade overnight and ASSET allocation trade is still with you, just raise the stops up to 887 now and watch what happens.

Good Trading

boris said...

Look at the sector status in the body of the post, please.

I am not sure how far can this market go without tech and finance?

Having doubts for sure.
But keep the stops if you are in

boris said...

If emini was to drop below 891 then the 893 will become a do or die level

Good Trading

boris said...

Lower the stop at 885.75 If it is above breakeven for you

Good Trading

boris said...

Market hits 885.75 and so far reverses up. The stop is taken out when it is bettered by .25 below, that means 885.50
So, I presume that position is still alive

Good Trading

boris said...

Ok, that trade is dead,
Even or gains.

Does not matter.

Main thing is NO loss anywhere

Good Trading

boris said...

I did not think that leadership will last, did you?

Good Tradiang(:-

boris said...

quick Update at DotNet site.

Good Trading Dear Subscribers

boris said...

The Utilities sector seems to be taking this phase of decline on the chin.

SDP is the way to play utility shorts.

While we do not officially advice to short utilties, I would urge you to look into discarding some/all utilities from your portfolio or even go short.

Good Trading