Monday, May 11, 2009

From Passover To Passover, Challenge

920.99 925.06 931.65 939.87 spx 903.82 899.74 893.15 884.9


Please see MEGA CALLS on this site or "Shekels on Dollar" at the http://www.safehaven.com/ , archives "boris chikvashvili"

This picture here is a challenge to anyone who thinks they can forecast. If they can produce any forecast of over one year long with this precision, I will warship the land they walk on!

And more so, if anybody can produce the YBR ( see next post) type of prediction for 2 years with that precision, I will , forever, bow to that person.
We have sold the market today 0.5 away from the daily session high of 916.50. Hallelujah!

61 comments:

Ivan said...

Boris, what is Long Term MDS? Is that your new 'MDS' that you have just published for the first time?
If yes, one suggestion from me: I think these similar names could confuse the people and you could choose more unique names for these different systems.

boris said...

Dear Ivan,
This is the same MDS with a longer term information been fed recalculated.

What I will be doing, even if not publishing this long term system, is that I will be taking it as a warning, instead of the short term MDS as a warning.

This has not been modified to accomodate the prolonged market moves, but THE FACT THAT DATA NOW INCLUDES samples of that kind( Market went through, at least, couple cycles of that kind of BULL /BEAR phase), makes it capbale of with markets better. In a way it diminishes my need to spoon feed it, because Markets may have done enough of that already.

GOod trading Dear Ivan,

boris said...

On DotNet, latest comments on markets 07:34 ET AM

Good Trading

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Good morning.
Thanks for all the great material.
Good living.

Bert

John said...

Boris,

Good morning. a lot to digest this morning


old john

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Silver cycle chart??? I don't ever recollect ever hearing that there was one :-)

Ivan said...

Dear xerxes, it was yesterday in my mail box...

boris said...

Dear Bet,
Nothing but the best for the best on the net.

That is my subscribers

Good Traing Dear Bert

boris said...

Dear John,
Thanks My Deaer Friend.

Out of the deluge comes CONFLUENCE!

GOod Trading
Ny Dear Friend

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Yese Xear IVan is right,

It is in your EMAIL BOX

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

boris said...

Dear Subscriberd,

Investmnet,

The truth be told is a boring business. I wish we did not need money.

I feel that confusing you with unneccessary wizardness during uinimportant times is like crying wolf one too many times.

Because, when the time comes and I want you to listen to me, you may bave become TONE deaf.

I would hate that.
(:-

Good Trading

boris said...

This from the man I really, really admire.

JEREMY GRANTHAM

For the biblical record, Joseph, consigliere to the Pharaoh,
advised him that seven lean years were sure to follow
the string of bountiful years that Egypt was then having.
This shows an admirable belief in mean reversion, but
unfortunately the weather does not work that way. It,
unlike markets, really is random, so Joseph’s forecast
was like predicting that after hitting seven reds on
a roulette wheel, you are likely to get a run of blacks.
This is absolutely how not to make predictions unless,
like Joseph, you have divine assistance, which, frankly,
in the prediction business is considered cheating. Now,
however, and defi nitely without divine help but with
masses of help from incompetent leadership, we probably
do face a period that will look and feel painfully like seven
lean years, and they will indeed be following about seven
overstimulated very fat ones.


GOod Trading
From Boris

boris said...

Now,
WHy in the world can not i write like that ha?

God dam it, apparently there is curse in being multicultural(:-
Even if you are of Jewish origin and Joseph was your forefather(:-
But please do not forget, Moses was my forefather as well and he could talk straight ( that is what I am told (:- )
Good Trading

TwinGems said...

Hi Boris,

I've a new subscriber of 2 months and to be honest I could still use spoon feeding :-). My question is re:the long term MDS.. what period of time do you use to define long term? When you say the short term has been not as reliable do you mean for example the last MDS sell which was 23 days.. even as the market continued to go up? I know that new MDS signals only act as a warning and one should not act on them right away.. but when is the time to really start paying attention to the new MDS? Or is it even more relevant to watch for APS crossovers after a certain number of MDS days? Does the MDS follow the YBR? Is it MDS more like the white line?

Thank you
Carol

boris said...

Yes,
YOu see again,
I have correct myself.

(:-

Moses could NOT talk straight

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...I didn't get any e-mail this weekend from you...Last e-mail was the Big Picture from May 7th...

boris said...

Dear Carol,
System, if designed well,
should work in all time frames and under various parameters.

I explained many times how I had to keep in my head that longer trends will require for me to watch other things besides MDS .

It would be nice for MDS to watch more of what it can.

ANd that is where the longer time frames ( as input to MDS ) come in.

But two years of data did not give enough statistical witght to it to allow that.

Now that we have more and more of the data, I can experiment with a longer time parameters.

Systems that do not evolve die and MDS can learn more "SIMPLY BY OBSERVING" so be it.

As I said, I watched shorter time frame MDS and interpreted the distortions of longer timeframe nature.

Hopefully I may have to less of that as MDS accumulates more longer range date and time frames.

If you never developed system this may not be so easy to grasp, but if you did than I should stop here

Good Trading
Dear Carol

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Can you check your SPAm.

Did you get ASSET files
SIlver Cycle,
Subscription notice

did you get any of this?

did you get alret today?

GOod Trading

boris said...

OK,
Perhaps best comparison
to short and long time based systems I can bring the YBR

Do you see how YBR seems to be much smoogther and more precise, while WBR jumpy and lot less precise?

Same way, there may come SUPER YBR one day which will smooth out the YBR itself, because it had had couple pretty bad errors in its 20 year chart I once displayed.

That is how it works.

the longer time frames exert a more poweful and lasting influences and they are not visible from the systems designed with a short time frame in mind.

Just the same...

One can not see the big flow of the reiver by being stuck in a littel inlet of it.

Good Trading all

boris said...

Dear Carol,
As far you paying attention.
Please do not pay any attention to MDS

MDS os not an aggregator. In fact we have now assigned it a warning only role.

I, BORIS , am the aggrigator. I had said this many times and it will not change

You look at my comments, based on total picture.
If you would know more about my systems you could that too. But I do not think that is or will ever be case.

Simply, I do not give away the system design.

So, What you watch if my comments.
And APs to take care of evnironment it describes

Good Trading

boris said...

I can breing another comparison

Say one had the neural network that learns from the input.

Like a computer, any neural system is


a


G I G O garbage in garbage out

system

why?

simply becuase quality of the output depends 100% on quality of the input.

Now with smaller number of sets the learning system can not learn as much ( facts ar missing(:- )

Larger number of inputs require more coputeing power and analytical power.

There is no free lunch(:-

THat is why doctors spend 10 years at university.

In any case.

Experience of the designer and dataset matters

that is what I am saying.

I could SUPER SMART and know and program all the possible patterns into system from the begining.

But I am not that smart!

GOod Trading

TwinGems said...

Dear boris

You're right the system is cryptic to me. I am glad you are here to decipher for us. I will follow your comments and try to learn the ape better.

TwinGems said...

I meant APs not ape typing on itouch

boris said...

Now, here is interesting thing

WHile , bigger pciture MDS has done well, looking at the places where the market was choppy , it has frastrated the user of it and that is where the confluence of the MDSLONG and MDSSHORT come in, because when the BIGBIG PICTURE is a MUD, one needs to get closer and that leaves us with conflunce of both MDS.

Later on as multi YEAR data develops, there probably will come a SUPERLONG MDS, just a warning(:-

GOod Trading

boris said...

I think this market could correct back to 917 area and resistance there could recoil it down again. It may not even be able to do that, but so care 907 was really the only good place it could support and it has.

Now is the make or break time.

Market was able during all this time before to rally on any news of "better than" this, "better than that" and the sucked out of the fingure stress test and etc. etc.

Nowis the time to see how market reacts good or bad news and if it is unable to make another rally when "half good" news comes along it will show that it has not left much in it.

Good Trading

boris said...

This came from Dear John,

Interesting how TARP money is spend

UseOffunds thanks Dear John
Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Nothing in spam...I never got anything...Check your e-mailer to make sure I'm in there...

boris said...

Again, While I am not shorting and this is not officially a shorting site, I could indorse a low risk, small risk short trade to test the market at these levels.

See the the disclaimers and if you do not keep risks small that is only your fault. Shorting or Longing market is not a get rich quick scheme.

Good Trading
The shorts are best initiated against 916-917 levels

boris said...

Remember, YOu can not, ever, make money buy risking big. Risk small and see it grow or never bogher that it was lost.

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...USDCAD approaching 5th...

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
I HATE when you are right(:-

How in the world(:-

You must have spoken too much that day (:-

See your email

Good Trading

boris said...

Market is oversold on a very, very short term oscillators, so need to take care of the shorts if you ever initiate one.

Once it break 917-918 it could easily go to 925 or higher. So, the risk again. That is very important 4 letter word

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...I'm seeing things again, like Cups and Incipient Handles....15 min USDCAD...Instead of shorting I should be targeting 1st Daily High instead....

boris said...

Good For you Dear Xerxes
What you see is one
man's opinion

Could be correct
Could be wrong

Good Trading(:- My Dear Friend

xerxes said...

i would feel a lot better about it Dear Boris, if you agreed with me :-)

boris said...

I know, but we will not discuss any of the currency and/or gold positions for a while on line.

You all are welcome to write at DotNet or email me.

But not online

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

boris said...

For all subscsribers attention.
The Cycle Chart I gave you this weekend was/is based on weekly cyles, that means that there is at least 5 day or more margin of error in hitting the exact day. And as you could see not all times the big moves happen even though most of the time it is profitable.

So, you need to wait for an appropriate day if this cycle is going to work. Pehaps, today looked like it, but may not be. Remember it is in the cycle turn days that the BIG BOYS will be active to remove any possibility for "little boys" to make any money and that means they can , certainly exegerate the moves that will come along and in the first place it will most likely be in the opposite direction which the signal is calling!

So, never take anything as gospel, need to make your own trading decisions based on what APs is the security hitting

Good Trading

boris said...

Did I say sell 916-917 area.

How FREAKIN PRECISE can I be?

EMINI hits 916.50 and recoils

Not gloating just pointing out that there is almost incredible precision in all the things we attache numbers to!

Good Trading

boris said...

And Yes,
If you shorted
Now stand at breakeven and enjoy FREE(king) trade
Good Trading

xerxes said...

I've noticed a pattern Dear Boris...Stock up - dollar down...
Stocks down - dollar down....Makes life quite easy :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
I though it depends on what you look first AT(:-

Good Trading

boris said...

So, Dear Xerxes, what currency did you buy when I said sell emini(:-

You do not have to answer that(:-

Good Trading

boris said...

Keep the stops at or above 914 and not above break point 916

Good Trading

boris said...

Another quote from

JEREMY GRANTHAM

We allow ourselves to be terrified by the “fi nancial-industrial complex” as Eisenhower might
have said, much to their advantage.

AMEN,
IS OBAMA LISTENING?

John said...

Boris,
You saw what the administration did to the chrysler bondholders- They gangstered them. Straight out chicago style gangster move. Any type of contract law or any law means nothing to a gangster. I get a kick out of those who backed him with money and are now shocked at what his administration is doing. What a joke.

old john

boris said...

Dear John,

How can I argue,
Just allow me to use the word
MAFIA, alongside Gangster(:-

In our search to protect ourselves from streat gangs( how can we do it the arms have been taken away) we created the biggest and most powerful mafia in the world, which we call USA goverhment.

They start wars at will, Take our money at will. Distribut it at will and I will not be surprised if they start killing us at will.

It is disgusting what i see.
I knew when I saw it in USSR that this paper tiger was on its way out, but this MAFIA CONGRESS, WHITE HOSE ( dems reps no difference) is not in its way out yet and will take a lot of vitims before it is ousted.

I hope I am wrong, but have seen too many things to just dismiss my own feelings

Good Trading My Dearest Friend
Dear John

I am sure you have seen a lot more and ordinary mortals have seen , at least, on USA side of Atlantic

boris said...

I would suggest that You take the profits on half position right now and stand breakeven on the other half.

Good Trading Dear Readers, Subscriber

jimww said...

Dear boris You are very correct there are way too many gangsters running the show. I am to old to get all worry up about it. That is why I like you , since you teach people how to steal money back from the thieves.

Aboot-Bull said...

Dear Boris,

are u saying USD/ILS is done ?

A-B

boris said...

Dear Jim,
Yes, That and at least how not give it to them.

God Help us!
My Dear Friend Jim

boris said...

Dear A-B,
Unfortunately, I can not address this issue in public at this time.
Reserved for SUBSCRIBERS.

Good Trading My Dear Friend

jimww said...

Dear Boris Well one hour to go , this is a coin flip up or down and I am to scared to flip the coin. LOL. I think LDK is still good earnings are may 21.

boris said...

Dear Jim,
Man's got to do what man's got to do(:-

ENjoy whatever you do.

Good Trading

boris said...

Well, for some of you this is a decision time.

If you can not hold the positions overnight. They are larger than you would like to hold, then please
1) terminate position with prfits 8 EMINI points
2) Terminate enough to leave you with positions you can take overnight.

Good Trading And Enjoy the gains

boris said...

9 Points and gaining.
Keep the position managable if you are planning to take this short overnight.

Good Trading

Aboot-Bull said...

Dear Boris,

np, tnx

A-B

lagscrew said...

you have to listen to this-please!!!!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXlxBeAvsB8&feature=player_embedded

xerxes said...

Good Morning Dear Boris...

boris said...

Good Monrning Dear Xerxes
Good Trading Dear Friend

Ivan said...

Good Morning!

Dear xerxes, free and real-time source:
http://j4.forexpf.ru/delta/graph_popup.jsp

xerxes said...

Thank You Dear Ivan....I'm trying to download it now...