Saturday, May 30, 2009

Armageddon?

Our Long time subscriber Istvan Cezarfi send us this url: clickme-> Confused? Armageddon?
Ok, You can either stay confused or unconfused, but we can only tell you this. While we have as many questions as this article raises, we have infinitely more answers.

1) Our AP system has said in no uncertain terms that 666 was possible on SPX and it was a buy
2) While other moan of all the possibilities, we do have Major outlines and they are given 3-6-12 months or even 20-100 year ahead ( for the right price).
3) We know our infliction points and wait for them, till then play the game of stupid or relaxed as one would prefer to call it.

To make the world easier for you and present possible turning points in everything ( because currency turns lead all other turns).
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WhoIsBernankeStimulating?
Well, Look at the picture and tell me please, that is who our central bank cares for. That is who our multinationals care for as well, they run to invest our diminished Dollar into these countries. Dear Obama, I thought that was not what you campaigned for is it?

135 comments:

boris said...

Dear Subscribers,
Please verify that you got the emails with files as indicated in the email title.
If not I will retransmit.

Let me know please, if you did not get all you were supposoed to

Good Trading Dear Subscribers

John said...

Out house hunting sunday. A noticeable increase in foreclosures in the area since the last time we looked. The other side, bank owned homes are being bid upon by groups of investors.

old john

Mike Truong said...

dear John,

I think these investor groups are in for a rude awakening when they realize that they will not be able to get cash flow positive or even cash flow even for these properties as more and more people either double or triple up in family units or people will simply not pay rent for awhile due to job losses and such. I think this summer and fall we will see more activities by these investors but as the realization that they are early once again, we will see a huge dumping of properties at a loss.

Good trading dear friends,

Michael

Mike Truong said...

dear Boris,

Just got your emails and all I can say is wow if YBR is true...Maybe it is better for me to pay for a full year and be better prepared.

Good trading dear friend

Michael

John said...

Mike,

I agree totally. I got lucky when our house deal fell through a few months ago. Prices are a little lower now and I think they will be even lower in july and august. From what I gather, not many people buy homes in the heat in the summer out here. Maybe I can get a deal.
By the way, where in Vietnam are your parents from? I spent time in Phu Bai and Quang Tri about 42 years ago. I probably misspelled the cities, it has been a while.

old john

Klaatu said...

Mike et al,
My nephew adopted a 5 year old girl from Vietnam last fall.She's a sweetheart named Honore.

Haven't been in touch for awhile.Had a nasty relapse in my autoimmune response from the antibiotic -Levaquin.

Good trading to all,
Klaatu

John said...

Klaatu,

I was wondering where you were? I hope everything is ok.

old john

boris said...

Dear John,
Good To hear from you
My Dear Friend.

I guess the party season is over and house hunting is begining again(:-
Good Trading Dear Friend John

boris said...

Dear Michael.
Thanks for the info
Good Trading My Dear friend

boris said...

Hi, Deaer Klaatu,
I hope this realpse unwinds itself in reverse.

We need you healthy here.
You need yourself healthy.
God help us make it happen
My Dear Friend Klaatu

Mike Truong said...

Hi John,

My Parents are from the south, Tien Giang Province, about 50 miles from Saigon. I think you were station more in the upper part of the S curve (we referred to this area as the Middle Region). You are probably aware but each regions (North, Middle, and South) have their own special tonal accents as well as food. Thanks for your help in Vietnam. It was appreciated by those in South Vietnam.

dimitry said...

Good morning, Boris ! Do you put month first or day in YBR ? 03/02 would be 3 d of February or 2nd of March ?

John said...

Mike,

Yes, I spent most of my time in the North. We were flying into Hue during TET offensive. Phu Bai was about 10 miles away. Flew to Khe Sanh , Rock Pile and the rest of the northern border. It was an experience.

Boris,
Yes, the house hunting has started again. I am really tired of it but have to proceed. Since we started again, more foreclosures but the vultures ( investors groups) are out. do not know if that is good or bad for the economy. It does seem that the sellers have realized that the "old" prices are no longer valid. Across the street from where we are staying there is a house for sale - 360,000- I knew it was too high- we returned and they lowered it 30,000 - still too much. Very nice house but it is 2 story and I have to think about the wife and i in 10 yrs. - single story only

old john

boris said...

Dear Dmitry
6.08.2009
Would read June 08 2009

and so on, right?

Thanks Dear Dmitry

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear John
Good Hunting My Dear Friend

I am very anxious to see how your hunting comes out.

Your travails have been typical, all along the way, as far as I can see.

Good Trading Dear Friend

Ivan said...

Hi Boris,
hourly APs are not correct (the same numbers for all APs)!? Thanks

boris said...

Dear Ivan,
Thanks, Corrected it all
Good Trading My Dear friend

xerxes said...

Good Morning Dear Boris...I'm in the middle of a test and it looks like I'm flunking....May have to take a retake at the 4th on euro....

Now that S&P broke through 929/930, I'm surmising that the rally to 1000+ has begun, that the sideways correction has ended...Would you agree?

Mike Truong said...

wow

where is the strength of teh pound comes from. it ook like it wants to hit 1.70 by mid week. That is incredible....I guess GBP is not dead but it is the dollars instead...I just can't seem to get myself to buy the pound....although that would have been the correct play. it is in terrible shape econmically wise bt I just don't know...Also could all this strength coms from all the shorts like me who does not believe in the strength of the UK 's economic recovery?

Good trading dear friends,

Michael

boris said...

Deaer Xerxes,
We have the price targets stated often and ranges and the turn date is available.
If we need to clarify we shall at the DotNet soon. But Would not like to transmit it publically.

Good Morning to you Dear Xerxes.
We do know where trends are.
So, depending if you want to play the trend or oppose it one plays the game

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

boris said...

Dear Mike, the strength is , now, primarily coming from the recovery of OIL.

Remember only two things driver GBP.
Finance and OIL.

While finance is limping a bit lately , the OIL is chugging along

Good Trading Dear Michael.

Mike Truong said...

ahh thanks for that clarification boris. I have always equated oil with cad, financials with gbp, and gold with aud. i guessed the relationship is much more than that. Wow so with Goldman Sachs pushing oil up and away each day, this will effectively drive gbp and cad higher. hmmm I wonder how much longer obama will tolerate this oil play by GS before he pulls the plug on it. i guessed GS wants to suck in more money from hapless investors before dropping oil down...They can't lose since it is OPM at risk but the profits are theirs.

Good trading dear friends,

Michael

Ivan said...

Hi Boris, thanks.
It seems to me, daily APs are still old (from Friday)!

xerxes said...

Good Morning Dear Ivan...
The euro Daily AP's are very similar to Friday but different..

boris said...

Dear Ivan,
Thanks for looking over.
YOu are correct, Wrong copies of date edned up in there.

Now it is all corrected
Good Trading Dear Ivan

boris said...

Dear Michael,
I would not count on Dear Obama being in a hurry to pull the plug out of the OIL game. You have the Seefuture I presume so do we.

And remember, one of the only ways Obamanians can restore some tax revenue is O I L !

Get this Dear Michael, you are a very smart young man.

I am sure you know how large part of the O I L price ends up as taxes.

Just at the retail level we are talking 100s of BILLIONS!

GOod Trading Dear Michael

Mike Truong said...

yes that is true but if enough people start squealing about $3.00 gas or that enough stories comes out about trader hoarding oil on tankers to cause an artificial price increase, Obama may not want to waste his popularity trying to justify the high prices. Anyway that is just my thought. I am just a skeptic at heart thus it is hard for me to follow a model blindly without supporting evidence. Some day i will learn to accept things as they are but for now, the anger inside of me about the way real people are hurting while the chosen few are made whole or given the public largess sometimes overwhelmed my sense of the market.

Good trading dear friends,

Michael

xerxes said...

At the rate of ascent of the S&P 500 Dear Boris, your target could be reached in a matter of hours :-)

xerxes said...

xxxx I am sure you know how large part of the O I L price ends up as taxes. xxxx

Come on Dear Boris. This cash exits consumer wallets and largely ends up in the pockets of sopitalists through various channels...

xerxes said...

we have a match with 5th hourly and 2nd daily on euro...So that must be today's target...

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
That has a good, worthwhile target to watch.
Good Trading Deaer Xerxes

boris said...

Dear Xerxes

Exits Individual pockets and ends up in sopitalist pockets.

Did I say something to contradict that Dear Xerxes,
I thought We do not disagree on that.

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear Michael,
I am trying to make you cold blooded trader.
Good warm hearted Human you already are!

Good Trading Dear Michael

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Remember, this is another one of those light days as EUROPEAN banks are on vacation?

So, do not spend too much energy on things that may turn out to be a worthless effort.

Good Trading

xerxes said...

What ate you talking about Dear Boris???

boris said...

Well, I know few traders in EUROPe that are not in the offices today!

That should say something

GOod Trading

xerxes said...

Maybe those are (1)rich (2)winning traders Dear Boris...I'm the opposite on both accounts so I need to keep speculating ;-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
They may or may not be rich, but they get payed regular salary.
So, it is ok for them

Good Trading

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

I am confused about your predictions for oil in bigpicture vs seefuture. Seem kinda opposite of each other or am I reading these in the wrong time frame?

Thanks dear friend,

Michael

boris said...

Dear Michael.
Why should there be a confusion between the two.

One SEEFUTURE has outline
BIGPICTURE kind of says what is possible in terms of BUS stations.
IS not it how it works.

Not that one can not infer other things.

But In general. SEEFUTURE is outline ( Possible PATH, which seems to work great on a genral bases, but could fail badly on a short term bases), while the Bigpicture shows where the stations are on the road.

Good Trading Dear Michael.

If you need more on this let us move the discussion to DotNet.
Thee we can talk in more detail.

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Good morning.
I have yet to receive the currency email you wrote about. In fact, the emails I did get indicate my subscription ending tomorrow. I recently renewed, so that is not the case.
Good trading AND a great day!

Bert

boris said...

Dear John
Aps have been posted
Good Trading Dear Friend John

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...On the emini98, that long black arrow has its head on a red diagonal line..What is that red diagonal line?

boris said...

Dear Bert,
Currency, emails have not gone out.
I am in preparation of those.

It will take 3-4 days to do all of them

You would like CAD I presume right?

The access termination email was incorrect and happened due to the double entry of emails ( you had two different emails, I will clean that up too).

Thanks Dear Bert

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
that is prevailing trend lines that prices have respected since March 9

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Thank YOU:)!

Bert

xerxes said...

xxxx that is prevailing trend lines that prices have respected xxx

Does the buck have something that respects it as well Dear Boris :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
I notice these things as I chart. If it does not jump at me, I will not report it.
I can take harder look if any are identifiable in EURO or GBP or CHF

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

boris said...

There is quiet war at the second High Attraction Point on a Daily basis.

Good Trading

xerxes said...

emini going to the 200 Dear Boris...
I guess we have a clear break from the congestion zone...4 digits coming to a theatre near you :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Could be,
Meanwhile the 3rd DHAP must be taken out.

One thing at a time Dear Xerxes.
If that happens , perhaps you want to take an action in the direction you describe.

Good Trading

waldo said...

Yes all is good, two of the largest car manufactures in bankrupsy and market rallies hard. To get the market back to the highs we all american citizens should run to our attornys and file also. The good old days will be back. WOW. waldo.

boris said...

Dear Waldo,
Good To hear from you.

Yes, Mass Bankruptsy is what we need
Good Trading Dear Friend Waldo

boris said...

Market has broken the resistence at the 3rd DHAP, now it is going higher or one must wait for a reversal on longer time frame, hourly or daily

xerxes said...

Once they pushed beyond 930 Dear Boris it was a clear breakout just like "The Doors" sung: Break on through to the other side, break on through yeah...

It is better with music Dear Boris :-)

boris said...

Wait Some music is played faultly and this break may prove to be that, but you should only play that if you know how.

Good Trading

boris said...

BREAK OUT
FAK OUT
?

boris said...

ONE MORE TIME

BREAK OUT
FAKE OUT?

Only if market is able to make new highs today could we say that this was not a fake out

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...isn't 948 a breakout???

Anyways Bloomberg says:

Incomes climbed 0.5 percent, the biggest gain in almost a year, reflecting increases in unemployment insurance benefits and social benefit payments associated with the Obama administration’s stimulus plan.

Now Dear Boris, please explain to me how people on the dole can account for the rising incomes needed to spur the consumption economy :-))

boris said...

Well,
It is not clear if this is a break out or not , but
it is certainly not break down.

Decisions , decisions.
Tomorrow is another day

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
We define break out against our own system

You know that
Or should know that

Obviously market is up and has broken SOME areas
Not the one we think is important at this time.

we are close though

Good Trading

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

Can a cylical bull market within a secular bear market exceed the secular bear market high? Increasingly I am confused about how people can continue to looked through rose-colored glasses that we will get better in 6 to 12 months while their economic conditions worsened everyday. I just cannot convince myself to buy this market until I see that people get disgusted with those in charge and the market makers (sopitalists).

Good trading dear friends,

Michael

boris said...

Dear Michael.
Stocks, among other things are ANTIDOLLAR( original one, biggest one).

So, Market could go up while expecting inflation and devaluation of Dollar.

Stocks even did better than inflation... WHERE?

In WAYMAR REPUBLIC ( Yes Germany of 1920s).

Yes, and would you like newer example?

Yes, 1973 a Bear market rally ( cyclical rally within Secular Bear that lasted into 1982) has actually, bettered the highs of 1968!

HALLELUJAH

Nothing is new under the SUN

Good Trading Dear Michael

xerxes said...

Nothing is new under the SUN...

That's why sopitalists are sun worshipers Dear Boris :-)

xerxes said...

Dear Boris..Heliben speaks wednesday and Thursday and another fed clown on Friday...So even if the buck gets some legs, these jokers can cut the buck down once again...Bernanke, recently, you may recall, sparked an 800 pip euro rally with some s*it talk about how he was gonna do a little extra printing :-)

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

So a secular bear is one that goes down eventually even if it goes much much higher before that? So in your view we are in a cyclical bull of unknown duration thus it is better to ride the uptrend than trade against it? Also does that mean we take quick short positions at exhaustions (APs) and ride the trend up at rallies (APs)? Why did I not understand this 3 months ago? Seems like I am still stuck in the theme that with the real economy in the dump, we can't go up.

Good trading dear friend,

Michael

John said...

Now Government Motors exists. I am waiting for the chicago type announcement. THEY are going to pack the company with out of work loyal POLS, just like they did at Fannie and Freddie.
two weeks until some out of work Pol is elevated to the vice presidency of government motors

In a few years we should have the " peoples" car. Remember the last country that had a "peoples" car and what type of government existed.

boris said...

Dear Michael,
You just needed to ask(:-
I am glad you asked now.

GOod Trading Dear Michael

boris said...

Dear John,
Thank you for a well placed thoughts here(:-

Peoples Car(e) (:- I like that!

Good Trading Dear Friend John

xerxes said...

Good Tuesday Morning Dear Boris...
Of the 4 trends you list on dotnet, what levels need to be reached to reverse the direction on the daily?
If you can't answer that off the top of your head then forget it :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
It does not work that way, It is impossible to know before it happens. Unfortunately, so this particular trend indicator is a dynamic one.

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

..........It is impossible to know before it happens........

Since when did that present a problem for you :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
It is a clculated value and calculation is not simplistic one.
That is the reason.

I can have some idea, usually it takes one or two reversal days in a row, but not possible to know the combination of things that will cause it.


As to that never preventing from to know future(:-

Well, I do not think future is knowable, but it can be approximated and adjusted as we go. In that sence it alos is a process of constant valuation and evaluation(:-

I/we are lucky if we can do multiyear forecasts without changes on the way. I guess , That makes me very lucky with the Dollar forecast for last 3 years.

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

So what is that gold oscillator saying now Dear Boris?

boris said...

Let me update all oscillators and place them on the DotnetSite Dear Xerxs

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Now that we are in the midst of a USD carry trade, a myriad of potential pernicious consequences can present at any time it seems...

boris said...

Dear Subscribers
the Asset oscillators file has been uploaded on DotNet site

Good Trading

xerxes said...

So Dear Boris, do we test the breakout at 930 before liftoff? There are old gaps that need filling up over 1000 :-)

xerxes said...

4 pips from new high in EURUSD Dear Boris

xerxes said...

EURUSD pushing 4th Dear Boris

boris said...

So has CHF/SWISSY
Dear Xerxes,
It takes time to create turns even if it is coming

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

alexnewbee said...

Good afternoon Dear Boris

just curious, what do you think about this "armageddon" article? It does not look (until now) like what is written there really occurs. or was it just some provoking writing from a scared bear, deep underwater?
of course anything can happen yet...

xerxes said...

.... It takes time to create turns even if it is coming ...

It'll turn into the roadside ditch Dear Boris :-)

boris said...

We are breaking the multi hour high, market seems to want to go higher this morning.

GOod Trading

boris said...

Dear Alex ,
Anything can happen is exactly the sentiment.

The question is how to quantify the
"ANYTHING"

That is what we do. We think we know where some things CAN GO.

Which is incredibly important info to begin with.

Good Trading Dear Alex
Everything else is just words.
Show me the numbers!

boris said...

Market is, most likely , waiting for the 10 AM news about pending home sales. And could react violently to that news.

Good Trading

boris said...

Only if you can react fast
the home pending news may act as a catalist to push the market strong either way.

Remember, if you are not fast on draw then forget this is not for you

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...USDX bounced off the 62% retrace twice already...Will it be 3 times lucky :-)

boris said...

I am trying to guess,
Only guess, that market may react positively to initial announcment and then may reverse down fast.

Just a guess!
Good Trading

xerxes said...

There are 2 things with those numbers...Guessing what it will be and then how the market will react...
Not an easy task no matter how fast you shoot :-)

alexnewbee said...

Dear Boris

as regarding numbers - I would say there are following marks to watch - 955, 980, 1025 (to the upside)

boris said...

Market hits 5th and currency response MUTE so far

alexnewbee said...

as for GBP - tried my luck at 1.6525 now.
if goes below 1.65 - double and stop in between.

boris said...

Yes, We got so far, what we though,
Initial push higher, but not too strong and with no follow up , so far.

xerxes said...

If they short the USD any faster than they are already, we'll have hyperinflation in a jiffy dear Boris :-) so a muted response is welcome here for USD longs but a real bummer for euro longs :-)

xerxes said...

Dear Alex...Last you told us about shorting sterling it was 15 cents lower or so IIRC, and just a couple weeks ago...

alexnewbee said...

Dear Xerxes - I wrote shorting at 1.6080 (if I remember correctly) and doubling if it goes below 1.60 with stop in between.

it did and was stopped. you can recheck.
I also will tell if this one goes wrong when I stop it.

xerxes said...

Dear Alex...I wasn't questioning the veracity of what you say...I was just commenting on how fast and how high sterling had risen since you last posted about it :-)

alexnewbee said...

Dear Xerxes
oh, sorry, I misunderstood your question.

that is why I try to pick a top now - think it can go as fast down...

together with oil and GS.

xerxes said...

Seems like everything hits the 5th everyday Dear Boris...

DXB said...

Boris:
USD longs are being tested like never before in history!
Do you have better memory than me, dear Boris?

Speculative retirement long trade still has time, still has margin to work with.

What on earth makes people bid up the pound over 13-15% and much more in 2 months? Hahaha

The world, not just the FX world, is a funny place...

Still alive!

DXB

alexnewbee said...

Dear DXB,

I think these are the same forces which bid oil to 147 and gold to 1.000 - greed and fear.

xerxes said...

Dear Boris..Went short the euro at the 5th...I don't know how you do it Dear Boris but thank you...I for sure thought I was going to lose a couple packs of Blue Mountain..Thank you again :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Good For you.
Good Trading My Dear Friend

xerxes said...

I reversed Dear Boris...I don't trust the dollar :-)

DXB said...

alexnewbee:
must agree with you on that!

xerxes said...

The 1st and 2nd dailies are real close....Seems likely that the euro will pay those bus stops a visit before the big turn :-)

xerxes said...

looks like I left too much on the table Dear Boris...I have steel cajones on order; these wooden ones just aren't good enough :-)

boris said...

Dear DXB, welcome,
I would like to answer technically, but out of respect to my subscribers, I can not.

The main theme of investment is PAIN.

More Pain felt due to certain trade , sooner that trend will end.

Right now Dollar may have too few constituents. Because being lower, scares people into spending.

That means scaring people all over the world. DOLLAR IS STILL THE RESERVE CURRENCY!

Only when Low Dollar seems to perpetuate the DEPRESSION in EXPORT countries ( EVERYBODY except USA) the world will wake up and say.

STOP, STOP,

WE are dying. WE can not export and our cititezens UNLIKE Americans save a lot.

Please Raise the DOLLAR,
Please ,Please, MERCEDES is going bankrupt Dear OBAMA
Please raise the DOLLAR!


Yes that will come, but the timing is reserved for subscribers

Good Trading

alexnewbee said...

Dear Boris

you are 100% right.
but the thing is, Mercedes is already dying.

bw. killed my short on brutish, at 1.6517 (last retrace).

was not a good trade.

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Got a doji after the long bullish stick on the 4 hr EURUSD so maybe the rally stalls here then again maybe not :-)

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...S&P is negative so far this session despite a strong decline in USD...Equity holders are now quadruple losers :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
I hate when that happens

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

boris said...

Dear Readers,
Please note, From 3 days ago when I asked you to BUY UNG, It is up from 12.50 or so to 15.70.
That is 20% higher in 3-4 trading days.

I N C R E D I B L E

waldo said...

Tin can Timmy and helicopter Ben doesn't want to see the market red for just a little bit. waldo

xerxes said...

I hate when that happens....

Seems the message is to divorce yourself from US assets/paper/scrip of any kind...Why fight them?

boris said...

Dear Waldo,
That is good,
I like the TCT
Tin Can Timmy

(:-

Good Trading Dear Friend Waldo

xerxes said...

Zeroing in on the EURUSD high dailies now Dear Boris :-)

alexnewbee said...

is not it strange, that gold hardly mmoves when currencies are so much up?

xerxes said...

Wonder if we get a surge to 960 in final 1/4 hour...

xerxes said...

Dear Alex...Euro has gone from 1.4180 to 1.4305 and gold from 975.7 to 982.07....Aren't those similar % moves?

That's why I think we surge in equities to catch up

xerxes said...

EurUsd reaches dailies, finally....Will we hit the 3rd today or leave that lifting till manana?

alexnewbee said...

Dear Xerxes

problem is that gold was 988 yesterday.

xerxes said...

Dear Alex....It's giving us time to load...That H&S on the weekly has a target over 1300 :-)

alexnewbee said...

Dear Xerxes

to me it looks more like distribution of gold.

boris said...

I think GOld will get to 1300
the only question is when.
One can lose lot of money by (NOT) knowing that answer.

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

Dear Alex....You could be correct... There is supposedly a bearish antidollar move coming...We'll see soon :-)

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...The H&S should play out over next few months...I shouldn't tread on your predictions as I'm sure to be wrong :-)

xerxes said...

Pushin' on the 2nd daily Dear Boris...Do we hit the 3rd? :-)

xerxes said...

Almost made the hit Dear Boris...Next run should do it...
So who's buying these dollars Dear Boris..

boris said...

Dear John,
Information you requested has been send to you via email

Good Trading Dear Friend John

John said...

Boris,

thanx- got it

old john

waldo said...

Looks like timmy and benny got there check books out again. Won't let the spy go below the critical 94.50 area. waldo

waldo said...

Timmy and benny can't make this market go up without destroying the dollar. They should be jailed along with every crook on wall street. waldo.

boris said...

Dear Waldo,
Thanks for your comments Dear Friennd