Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Time To Go Down a bit

Dear Readers,
This market has resisted all selloff attempts, but no market is immuned forever, After 5 Straight weeks up, to have another 6h has a avery low probability to begin with!


846.18 848.93 853.44 858.83 emini
840.07 837.32 832.81 827.31


32.75 32.82 32.93 33.11 qqqq
32.57 32.46 32.28 32.06


458.59 459.29 460.44 461.81 rut
457.03 456.33 455.19 453.79

848.28 849.78 852.24 855.18 spx
844.95 843.45 840.99 837.99


99.44 99.58 99.81 100.08 jpy
99.12 98.98 98.76 98.48

1.3262 1.3271 1.3286 1.3304 eur
1.3243 1.3234 1.3219 1.3201

68 comments:

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Good morning.
Have a great day!

Bert

boris said...

Dear Bert,
Thanks My Dear Friend

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Good Afternoon Dear Boris

boris said...

Indeed Dear Xerxes,
Good Afternoon(:-

Good Trading

boris said...

840.28 was a theoretical THIRD ILAP ( hourly).

Market , so far has hit it, with, rounding error at 840.50 and bounced.

Revisiting this point could prove painful for this pretty tired market

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....For every trader in pain there is another sipping champagne :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Are you talking about the GOLDMAN SACKS Report.

Did you see where their gains come from?

HALLELUJAH!

SOPITALISM at work.

Did I tell you that "THEY will create the volatility that you have never seen before, just so that you will SELL to them when it is the LOW and you will buy from them when it is the HIGH"


Do they have master obfuscators in government or what?

You bet.

Listen, Dear Xerxes, I am sure you could say all the same things. You are a very politally astuate man.

the difference with me saying that is that I have some Idea when its coming and can act on it.


But you are right.

you can say it in one sentence like above. No problem My Dear Friend Xerxes

Good Trading

xerxes said...

zzz the difference with me saying that is that I have some Idea when its coming and can act on it. zzz

Exactly Dear Boris...That's why I'll always be here :-)

And if I didn't mention it earlier, thank you lag for the forex site you recommended earlier...

boris said...

Well, I know now, some will say,
How could that be?
Can not be!?
No Way, Jose!

Sorry to disappoint you my Dear Friend.

SOPITALISTS do not need to have the "ISNIDER" law apply to them.

HELL, how could they obtain inside information, when they are the inside.

Do you see the insanity of the system we live in.

Well, the entire world lives in even more insane world.

So, take charge, of you individual destiny, because they already are in charge of IT!

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...We did a 50% retrace of the move from 1.3089 to 1.3391...So do you think EurUsd bulls take over from here or the bears move the cross in concordance with the imminent equity decline...

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
I hate to give that much info online.

See my response at DotNet site

Good Trading My Dear Xerxes.

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

Thank you for the comment on GBP. It does help me look at it differently. Also I had to take a loss because of the nature of my trade which is that if a delta negative >5% of my account has been reach I have to step out of the trade. I will look for a better entry later. Perhaps later this week.

Good trading dear friend,

Michael

xerxes said...

Thank You Dear Boris for the nice response...Now I know better what to do :-)

boris said...

Dear Michael,
I believe, you need to look at your trades a bit more as a position builder.

You see, lot of people will say, Ok never add to the losing trade.

Now that is a meaning less statement, EXCUSME me!

It makes world of difference if I have 0.1% at risk and 10% at risk.

I can have 10 positions of 0.1% to get to the god damn 1% risk, which maybe my limit!

Ok, exegerating, perhaps portions of 0.2-0.25 will/should do

You see, incredibly , enough, I find making intermediate trades , almost like I trade the long term ASSET ALLOCATION MODEL

God help me(:-

Good Trading

boris said...

Yes, you are laughing ha!(:-

I meant 1% not 10% there

Good Trading

Mike Truong said...

Thank you Boris...I will work on how to allocate my trades accordingly. I do try to build position but I do have a certain number that I must cut the cord. What I find interesting the last 2 days is how strong GBP in relation to USD as compare to the rest of the G7 - Yen. Foreboding or foretelling I wondered?

Good trading dear Boris,

Michael

boris said...

Thanks Dear Mike

Good Trading

boris said...

1 1108 0.45
2 586 0.53 0.24
3 340 0.58 0.14
4 192 0.56 0.08
5 113 0.59 0.05
6 52 0.46 0.02
7 26 0.50 0.01
8 18 0.69 0.01
9 7 0.39 0.00
10 4 0.57 0.00
11 3 0.75 0.00
12 2 0.67 0.00

wow! what are these numbers?

Ok the first is the number of weeks down was up.
Second number is the number of times that happened.
third number is , probability of going one more week up, if we are already up x weeks.
fourth number is the probability of the number of weeks up occuring

So, the probabiliry of two weeks up is 0.24 ( 25%).
But the probability of having 2 weeks up after 1 week up is .5 ( 53%)
So, probability of 3 weeks up is .14 ( 14%) and the probability of 3rd week being up after we are up for 2 weeks is 0.58 ( 58% ).


so, probability of having this week up ( 6th) is .46 ( 46%).

So, which number of weeks up is hardest to achive after we got to the number - 1 weeks previous week?

answer is 9 th week is the hardest get after we got 8 weeks. Only 39% of those moves up with 8 week streak go to 9 th

WOW!

Ok use this in healh , write it down and remind me when I forget
OK, DEAL

Good Trading

boris said...

I meant WEEKS DOW WAS UP IN A ROW

boris said...

And Last
Please note, it is almost ZERO chance that we get to the 11 weak streak, but if you got there, you have a 75% chacne that next week will be higher ( Please do not belive this, sample of these points , is only 3 , which does not statisitics make!)


A better read of this info is placed on DotNet Site

Jason said...

Boris,

YEN approaching 4th Daily AP. Do you think it holds today?

I think I see a little more downside.

Jason

boris said...

Dear Jason,

IT is always hard to follow on such moves, but, add to the support around 98.60, which is an ABC 100% decline and I think YEN either stops here or it takes the HOUSE down ( I mean Stock market house down)(:-

For my money, I would play this only as a support line, that means watching bounce and the speed of it and being ready to cut quickly if we are wrong. But, Even As I do not like giving this thing online, I would play it that way.

Good Trading Dear Jason

Jason said...

Thanks Boris. Confirming exactly what I am thinking.

The USD seems to have some short term strength now but the GBP is not backing away from 1.5 key area. Why is the GBP bucking the group? Thoughts?

Jason

boris said...

Dear Jason,
In my thoughts about correlation between GBP and markets , I indicated that it has been tight lately, which I think is explained among other things by the fact that UK is esentially a paper based economy ( especially LONDON). which is heavily dependent on FINANCIAL WORLD!

I think the dependence on UK and ( POUND ?) on finance, and financial world is not questionable

Good Trading Dear Jason

boris said...

And recovery of finance related EQUTIES lately, has directly been fed into POUND strength!?

I hope so.

Good Trading

jimww said...

Dear Boris Just want to say thanks for your comments in general it helps me and alot of little people in the world. I think you are turning into a cowboy since the currency markets are a bucking bronco. YEE HAA.Good work and sleep well you are tuned into the markets it is TIME you make a great fortune this is what you are born to do....good luck.

boris said...

Dear Jim,
Thanks for you evaluation of my personality.

I will probably never be a big money person, because I do not have the initial capital to make one or two big hits.

When one starts from my levels, it takes more than 2 o 3 good hits to get there. Well, from your lips to Gods Ears, I hope I can hit 2-4 smaller ones to get big, but probabilities are not high, due to my age and risk profile.

But that is Ok, I do not have to be Millioner to enjoy life.

Perhaps the inverse! I may lose interest if I were(:-

And Yes, I hope that a lot of people are learning from me. That is my goal, really.

Thanks Dear Jim,
Thank you My Dear Friend

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

GBP is trying really hard to get to the 2nd IHAP. I may reshort there or @ the 1st Daily High AP. Wish me luck on this one.

Good trading dear friend,

Michael

boris said...

Stock Market seems to have supported on th 4th ILAP, just could not break that in almost 4 attempts.

Well, perhaps We are ready to rally again, as JPY going lower( if that was to happen from here) could support another move up, which could finally hit the next real resistance 875

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear Mike,
You may want to place very tight stops and/or chose to short on a proven move ( such as Dark Candle on an hourly bases).

Alternately, perhaps wait for it to get even higher , closer to 1.50 and keep it very thigh, in case You may want to reshort higher or another indication of lower move ( Dar Candle breaking two previous closes)

Good Trading Dear Michael

John said...

Boris,

A run to 875 now would be the last move anyone would expect. Covered my short from yesterday, did ok.
thanx

old john

John said...

The second I posted, market started to tank.

boris said...

Well,
So far , it is not hapenning, even as JPY is stable or ready to turn up, Stocks are coming to the lows of the day.

I am not sure this can judged properly yet, but if Market Does not respond to JPY rally tomorrow, that could open the door to the notion that Correction will be deeper, before we rally again

Good Trading

John said...

Boris,

thanx

old john

boris said...

Dear John,
Welcome My Dear Friend

Good Trading

Jason said...

Boris

Looks like some short term USD strength might be shaping up here.

Do you think GBP will take the 1.5 area today? It has held tight for a while right under it.

Jason

boris said...

Dear Jason,
I do not think I can reliably tell you that, but the resistance area is all the way from 1.4903 to 1.4945.
If this area is bettered today, chances are that 1.50 will b reached.

One needs to monitor and perhaps short into this area ( if it goes there) with minimal ( 25 pip ) protection.

Good Trading Dear Friend Jason

Right at this point the Hourly channel is being turned down and as long is stays that way GBP will be under pressure

xerxes said...

Good Morning Dear Boris...I awoke to a bunch of rampaging euro bears this morning...Speaking of channels the 15 min and hourly and daily are sloping down but not 4 hour which looks like it could be in the process of forming a rising three method which could push EURUSD well over 1.34 :-)

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....Seems like bearish trend is strengthening...Any changes from your outlook posted yesterday on dotnet?

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
I believe there is a strong support here for EURO and SWISSY.
But you never know they could give(:- !

Good Trading Dear Friend Xerxes

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...The falling 3 methods is in play on the hourly...so far

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....Now that the FTM played successfully on the hourly, should we expect to hear the caw of the crows next or visualize a bullish piercing belt?

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Whatever comes, must fit in my descriptions of expectations. We do not want to say more than that for now(:-

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Seems like we may get the crows on the hourly afterall... 15 minute has a set of tweezers...

boris said...

Jpy is back above that ABC demarkation line and stock Market is respoinding SO Far.

Good Trading

boris said...

Ok, a bit of a lesson in market behavoir.

This morning GBP moved lower, nice... hit the second Hourly ILAP and made a tail turn.

Well, how many times did this happen where the market, makes move between first and second or just above that and turns , Many times. Often in does not. What is the difference.

The trader! he/she must see the turn coming with other tools it his/her disposal.

All AP can do is say, watch here... you need to be alert and take action.

For example, perhaps a 5 minute white candle, should have provided a low risk entry.

There is not a hell of lot more I can do beyond telling a trader, where the station is.

Trader must figure if the security is ready to stop and turn or is going without stopping.

Well, now GBP is back to FIRST IHAP! and we need to think the same way, what to do.

The most important two positions for turn are the area between 1-2 IHAP and 4-5 IHAP.

Trader needs to be alert.

Use MACD, RSI, anything candles , anthing that helps you identify turn or through!

Good Trading again

boris said...

Of course, you must listen use the currency outlines ( FOR EURO/SWISSY) I gave yesterday. That is I expect...

Ok, read what I wrote there at DotNet.

All of these should have suggested this morning that EURO was at the support and So was SWISSy.
Likely turn should have been confirmed with the shorter term tools.

Now , we can go back there, but for this morning the thinking worked. For me too. I made coffee money by bying SWISSY and SHORTING JPY.

I spoke about that sort of a turn openly online and in private at DotNet.

You see, I am not doing anything that I did not discuss. Just
need to listen and act when APS FIBOS, Short term tools indicate certain action at those places.

Good Trading

boris said...

AND IF IT STILL DOES NOT WORK FOR YOU.

GET OUT!

Rething what went wrong and if nothing continue searching for reentry

Good Trading

gorli said...

good morning, boris. i am not able to get to the .net site. is there a problem?
gorli

boris said...

Dear Gorli,
The ISProvider is down and will come back soon.

It is not problem caused by us.
In any case, I copied the files and send email

DotNetUpdat.htm file

attached. Please Unzip if you have to ( or send to aol and it will do it for you)

To all subscribers, this message applies to all of you

Good Trading

gorli said...

thnks for the attention, boris,i have not rceived the email so far @ my gmail address.
gorli

boris said...

Dear Gorli,
YOu should have it in AOL
as well

Thanks Dear Friend From Great India

boris said...

GBP at 5th, and rejected so far at 1.5 exactly

I believe this level will be rejected, but need confirmation, by short term trader

Good Trading

Jason said...

Boris,

Thanks for the JPY call. Got some coffee money.

It looks like JPY may be running into some short term resistance here.

Jason

boris said...

gbp, played a lot around 1.50 and now retreated, ( it could be done) if you sold around 1.4998 congrats. I did and took little profit, but stay aove the high if you shorted this.

It was only able to go 5 cents about the FIFTH at 1.5037 with fifth at 1.5031!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear Jason, JPY could go to 99.70 as a minimum, in my opinion(:- , for what ever it is worth

Good Trading
Dear Friend Jason

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....

Did Bernanke retire this past hour? :-)

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Now that we hit first low HAP, what should I be thinking now...Walk me thru using the AP's here...I'm looking for a turn in indicators to go long EURUSD but that isn't what you're doing :-)

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Just hit the 2nd LHAP

boris said...

He must have,
Or this is all exactly within the context of sideays BS play, I descriebed in my write up about EUROS

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...check this from Bloom...
“There’s limited upside for the dollar,” said Maxime Tessier, head of foreign exchange in Montreal at Caisse de Depot et Placement, which has C$120 billion ($98.7 billion) under management. “Since the beginning of the year, we’ve been gradually reducing our exposure to the dollar.”

I wonder if they sold dollars at 1.33 today

boris said...

“Since the beginning of the year, we’ve been gradually reducing our exposure to the dollar.”


Dear Xerxes, they must be reading my blog(:-

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Boris the 3rd LAP and 1st DLAP are very close....So, we should likely reach that area today before a sustained reversal....

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Agree, That looks natural area for stop, just above 1.31

Good trading

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....Your numbers are falling like dominoes today....and I don't mean the pizzas :-)

1.3089 was the launch point for the euro...Not far away anymore...

xerxes said...

Seems to me that the decline should stop in here....The AP confluence with the bottom of the downtrend channel, divergence on the ACD...Boom

xerxes said...

Forgot to mention that a 2nd hourly hammer is being forged...

Mike Truong said...

good morning boris,

I see that all the excitement in the currency arena happened while I slept last night. Funny thing was I had a gut feeling about a blowoff topping action but was so tired yesterday so I turned in early instead of waiting for the European open. Anyway it look like the Eur, GBP, and Swissy are having a tug o war with each other right now while the yen is confused on what to do.

Good trading dear friend,

Michael