Monday, April 27, 2009

Still Waiting For FED?







Yesterdays close on SPX, is within fluctuaion 2% of all the range of last 15 or so trading days. Yes, Dear Richard may think we have deviated too much on the upside from trading range, but you will be the judge. Just look at the chart!
I may have sounded like wishy washy on this board and at private DotNet, but justfibly so. Because Market has been leading us nowhere and being wishy washy(:-
Only Dividend stocks owners were making money, because time is on their side(:-

68 comments:

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

Interesting that currencies are screaming problems with the equity and credit markets but equity seems to be shrugging it off. Could it be that the sopitalists have not sold all their long positions to the appropriate "suckers" and thus are holding the equity market up? It is very interesting to see what will happen when the next leg down of this bear market resume, especially the reactions of Joe 6Packs and the actions of the Obama's administration.

I really want Obama to succeed because I don't really want to have to live through a Depression but I fear for my country.

Very sad...

Michael

boris said...

Dear Readers, Subscriber.

It is my total belief that, the currency market understanding ( when we understand it, which is not always and we stay out), is the major factor in our ability to survive and prosper in these markets.

Thus, it is my deepest request to you that you make all efforts needed to advance:

1) Your understanind of how currencies work, major pairs and their interrelationships
2) Follow closely what we say here, because in the end it is educational beyond what can be learned anywhere.

Good Luck
and
Good Trading

boris said...

Dear Mike,
You go me on your side, in that thinking. I was excited to get Dear BUSH out of the office, but getting OBAMA, PELOSI , READ, DODD and This GUY from taxachussets makes me sick to the core. It is very hard to see how they took care of their own core consitituients ( CORE SOPITALISTS). Inflated municipial salaries and pensions. Instead of real infrastructure spending.

I love our Police and Fire and Education Departments, but their bloated salaries and benefits are the reason the municipalities are unable to function.

First Thing DEAR OBAMA did is to make them happy. They vote and protect sopitalists ( PILICE STATE when they say that word is not necessarily a misterious thing).

Police, while not rich are part of SOPITALISM and are confortable. So are the teachers at 100000 Defined benfit per year. For what?

For creating illiterates galore?

Teachers Unions elected Democrats and they will get payed on our backs.

The municipalities will not shirnk, they will just tax us(US) more.

The only problem is that at close to $200000 debt/per person of government obligatios ( conservative estimates of budget deficits) noboy wants to be born in USA in more and anectodal evidence exists that even MEXICAN AMIGOS are running back to the fence not in to USA(:-

It is sick to see how this mountain of debt is hoisted on ordiary Americans, just because GOVERNMENT ( big part of SOPITALISTS) is demanding unlimited money from ordinary TAXPAYERS.

RICH, oh yes, they are part of the SOPITALISM and you can not really tax them. They know loopholes and when push comes to shove they will be found in SWISS ALPS, before their money can be confiscated.

So, yes, Dear OBAMA, you are burdening ordinary American with debt load that he/she can not carrie. So, why lie to us and say that we can create jobs and get out of recession by spending OPM( other peoples money) which we do not have anyway( tax collections are down). So we will print, like purchase of BONDS by FED and become ZIMBABWE in the process.

Is this hurts me to say and think about, but I put it as my obligation to inform you what I think. Of course , I could be wrong in my thiking. Please correct me. Let me know, what I am missing.

If indebtedness was a solution, why stop at 10 Trillion deficit next 10 years, why not go to 100 Trillion. ZEROS have no meaning anyway, anymore(:-

AMAZING

No more debt does not solve the problems, but it makes thieves current insiders to steal more of it now ( not later). Later you and I will pay the debt. In money of in blood.

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Good Tuesday morning Dear Boris... Now that the C&H is dead the H&S that formed suggests a target south of 1.29....I'm sure you'll tell me that this scenario is of 'low probability'....So what is today's high probability outcome? I thought you would maybe consider placing this answer on dotnet...Last week you told me that the USD would commence a decline by 4 0'clock CET and it did, at ard 3:30, and a big one :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes, I expect today to be a consolidation type of move.
Perhaps limited between the first three hourlies on both sides.

You can see those hourlies on DotNet.

I really expect before THE FED day to be tame.

I have been wrong before. If anything I may be proven wrong and Dollar can rally even more.

So, highest probability is meandering. That is not to say one can not make money, but need , in my opinion, to concentrate on moves in between the first three APS( Hourly).

boris said...

Actually, the way I define and inside day is this.

If market is confined for the most part the day within first 2 or 3 APs on both sides, that makes it an inside, low volatility, day for me.

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

boris said...

Stock market is again testing the lower side of support around 845-843. If this gives up we could look forward to 825 and that is one possible scenario and how to handle that move below 838 is described at DotNet

Good Trading

boris said...

Of course, if stock market supports here the higher probability play for today could be a higher move in SWISSy and EURO.

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear Ford,Subscribers,
I have added pair of AUDJPY to our
Hourly Intraday APs ( which in my world are the best of the best tools ever available).

The reasons why I did this include the interest on the part of Dear Ford and all Australians, but even more. I think this is a pair to watch for crisis identification and protection against it.

If there is any, it is this pair that best describes Ongoing and/or approaching crisis

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Nice work on dotnet...thank you..

boris said...

Welcome Dear Xerxes,

I attempet to improve all along.
We shall see.
The real problem is that , As I often stated, Market is not known to me all the time.

Only at infliction points do I feel comfortable enough to ask myself and subscribers to take a risks in the market.

Once the infliction point is gone, it is like asking a question, how best can I jump from moving train.

Frank answer. I am scared to death and I do not know.

This is the most honest answer I can give. 80% of the time I stick with things because things went well for me 20% of the time at infliction points. Other than that I really have a hard time recommending trades.

Good Trading

boris said...

The emini , has gone through the support area of 843-845 and beyond. The market is hurting now and could possible reach the 827 area as next support, but being a FED day tomorrow, I would think that market will recover some today to make tomorrow look like an even field between bears and bulls.

After Bernanke play the market could make, finally, violent move to the new highs or very deep lows.

What is the chance for more meandering same 1/3(:-
Good Trading

boris said...

I felt confortable selling market around 870 first and 867 couple days ago, when I thought that market was tracing the ABC correction up, which has made a 100% projection at 867.40.
Market has barely exceeded that and since then we are slowly, but moving down.
So, If you as me now what to do. The only thing I can say is that we need to wait for some kind of pattern we can recognise like ABC on Friday and go from there.

Again emphases here is that I do not really know and do not feel comofortable giving advise all the time.

Simply and honestly because, I do not have a good answer and why risk subscribers money if I do not feel comfortable with any ( new) position at that point.

I will never do that.
It is OK for me to look STUPID( because I do not know what market is going to do next minute, YEAH - I would like to know who does(:- )
rather than give a subscriber info that is unverified.

My integrity and my honesty is more important to me than the "falese feeling" anybody can get that I always have answers.

I D O N O T A L W A Y S H A V E A N S W E R S

HONEST!

boris said...

You see this move down to 835 area may prove fake as it spend an hour to get there and just efore the end of the 3 Am market turned and, in 5 minutes, has recoverd back to 843, the area of support.

This is the dirty games the floor traders can and do play with public.

Good Trading

boris said...

By "floor traders" I mean the same people who would be on the floor if they were in CHICAGO or NEW YOURK. Of course Emini is traded electronically

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...,slow day so far.... despite nice down draft in DAX eurusd not falling or doing much of anything

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
That is what I thought, but
please wait, there maybe more action during the USA market session.

Good Trading Dear Xerxes.

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....AUDJPY looks like a nice short targeting low 60's...But it seems too obvious...

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Perhaps giving it chance to correct make it less risky and less obvious

GOod Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Boris, the aussie has gained over 1% from its low today...Could be getting interesting...

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Yes, AUDjpy has a 68 area as interesting resistance area, but if overcame it could run , at least, close to 67

Good Trading

boris said...

Stock Maket is holding the line around support trendline now at 82 area.

Not rising not falling any more.

Good trading

boris said...

We have pretty bad drops in ASIA. Today, So...

has the kind of weakness we looked for arrived.

Certainly Possible.

From our point of view, it would be a very good thing to have one more MDS cycle and catch the SELL

GOod Trading

boris said...

Correcting numbers on AUDJPY, the 68 is a resistacne and next runup if overcame would be 69.

Good Trading

John said...

Boris,

Good morning. You speak the truth about municipalities and the " chicago" way. USA is now being run like chicago , not to help but to ensure staying in power. I will not go further as it is not good for my blood pressure.

My little purchase of SDS is doing very well. A little coffee money.
My wife and I are going to the CUBS vs. Diamondbacks game tonight. Big decision on whom to support.

thanx

old john

boris said...

Going back to DIG.
We have
Hourly Trend Positive
Daily Trend Negative
Weekly Trend Negative
Monthly Trend Negative

It does not look so hot at this
time

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear John,
Enjoy my Dear Friend.

Good Trading to you.
And May your choice win tonight

Good Trading My Dear Friend
Yes Chicago Style, come to think of it I should understand what that means(:-

boris said...

OK, appearetntly Dear Bernanke and Paulsen tight team of GOONS told Dear Ken Louis that if he did not buy ML they would remove him and the board of Bank of America(:- !

Oi Woi Oi!, how could they, why would they, what rights do they have? Are they really SOPOITALISTS and i just thought a brilliant question. If the could remove the board so willy nilly, do you care to answer me?

Was it "them" who appointed the board in a first place?

Is this how it works?

No wother the Dear Suckers on boards woute for MILLIONS of bonuses to themselves!

No wonder we suspected that this is not a CAPI but SOPI (talism).

God help us!

Do you see that Fellow American?

Did you hair just stand from this question?

I know mine did!

Good Trading

TwinGems said...

Hi Boris,

Did you read the story on Geitner in NYT yesterday.. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/27/business/27geithner.html?_r=1&em
makes me even more angry.

what did you mean by this exactly...
"From our point of view, it would be a very good thing to have one more MDS cycle and catch the SELL"

that we have another BUY cycle and then catch the NEXT SELL cycle which would be steeper?

Thank you

Carol

boris said...

Dear Carol,
You are right, It is the next SELL on MDS that we love to see!
We would love to be there in more definite mood.

And thank you so much for this info , I shall read.

Good Trading My Dear Friend Carol

boris said...

Dear Carol,
Thi entire thing reminds me of a giant insider trading conspiracy instead of FED supervision.

What supervision?

No wonder GOLDMAN knew the house of cards was falling down and made multiple BILLIONS in dumping/shorting CDOS(:-

HALLELUJAH!

Instead of a wall of regulator/regulated, what we have here is the rampant insider info running from the regulators to those regulated who are better connected

Just follow Mr Geithners meetings and see who he met and what may have been discussted and how could they have used it to benefit them

UNBELIVEABLE is not even a good word to describe this.

This is CALLSSIC ROTTEN SOPITALISM at its best, or I should really say WORST

Good Trading

John said...

Boris,

George Carlin explained it all before his death.


old john

boris said...

Dear John,
You are right sir.

You are so right and
Dear Geroge was so right

Good Tradng My Dear Friend.

TwinGems said...

Dear Boris,

It left me speechless.. do you read baseline scenario... he basically says that the US is run by Oligarchs worse than any emerging country.

when you have time... interesting

http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/02132009/watch.html

John said...

Twin Gems,
I do not know if you have seen the George Carlin video on this site. If not, go to it. He explains everything in very simplistic terms but very truthful.

old john

TwinGems said...

Dear John,

I can't link to it.. maybe because I'm in China and it's blocked.. I have to try to view it from another computer but I'll check it out later.

thank you
Carol

boris said...

We are just approaching the first hourly High AP and that means some resistence here for SPX and if higher 861 will be there and that may pose a stronger resistance for this market.

It is instructive though that while market had a chance to go down this morning it never really broke the FILAP and it stayed close the trendline which I though it will stay with ( with a little excurtion excluded in the morning).

Ok, My estimation would be for around 11 ET for resistance and perhaps reversal to set in

Good Trading

boris said...

IT APPEARS LIKE I WROTE THIS TODAY at about 4 AM when USA was soundly asleep.!(:-

NOT BAD BORIS, Nor Bad(:-



The emini , has gone through the support area of 843-845 and beyond. The market is hurting now and could possible reach the 827 area as next support, but being a FED day tomorrow, I would think that market will recover some today to make tomorrow look like an even field between bears and bulls.

After Bernanke play the market could make, finally, violent move to the new highs or very deep lows.

What is the chance for more meandering same 1/3(:-
Good Trading

4/28/2009 3:55 AM

Mike Truong said...

Good afternoon dear Boris,

Brutish just cannot make new high which implied that we can not make go very far for financials. This may be the tell of what is coming after FED day. Also did you see what happen to gold last night (early morning your time)? How does it drop $35 in 3 minutes? Just incredible...

Good trading dear friend,

Michael

boris said...

Dear Michael,
Good Tohear from you.
We agree on BRUTISH weakness and frankly the GOLD weakness is just an extension of that state of things in EURO world and EURO currencies world.

We mentioned we do not trust GOLD until/unless it clears 955 and that is it(:-

Thanks My Dear Friend Michael

KBSC LP said...

Hello Boris

boris said...

Dear KB,
Hello My Dear Friend.
Good To hear From you.

KBSC LP said...

Boris....I have a interesting question for you regarding dividends.

Lets say I buy
DPM @ $15
its paying $2.4 annual dividend

sell the 15 call at 2.5
buy the at put at 1.75
selling the call finances my INSURANCE for downside.

What I am not protected against is IF they discontinue their dividend, but if they pay it, i make huge yield.

Am i missing something......seems like there are plenty of these possibilities out there.

collect the

boris said...

Ok
Dear Kb,
YOu are touching something that is refered as COLOR

That is a method used by sophisticated users and Yes, there are a lot of things like that out there.

Good Trading Dear KB

waldo said...

Hi all, raining here today so I got a day off from my outside projects. Just heard some great news that microsoft and verison are teaming up to make microsoft a phone. Our hi tech companies sure know how to spend there money to come up with new innovative ways to help consumers. LOL. Waldo.

boris said...

Dear Waldo,
Good To hear from you.

Yes, and MicroSOFTY and VERY REASON(:- were watching with envy how big brother AT AND T and AMPLE(:-
were taking over the handheld computer world via I do not PHONE(:-

So, they did not want to stay behind and agreed to challenge the those later two by the first two, I mean , I hope, you understand what I mean right?


(:-(:-

Good Trading

John said...

Waldo,

How have you been? More useless consumer nonsense to be bought on credit cards that will never be paid off.

old john

waldo said...

Been doing alright john since I turned my back on the market and don't watch every tick. I finished my front porch last night and all my concrete is done. Just have to build the steps to the front porch and finish the landscape along the side walk before starting on the back porch, it's much bigger and of course in between those jobs I have to mow 3 acres of yard and start picking dandelions to make some wine. They say there is never any rest for the wicked but I didn't think I was this bad. waldo.

waldo said...

I do look at a few charts at night and I see some patterns playing out if they are correct that would take the spy 500 back to the 770 area. Of course not all patterns play out but this market seems to be running on fumes. waldo.

John said...

Waldo,

Agree that a correction is coming but when? I guess after GS sells everything they bought earlier.
We are still looking for a house after the deal fell thru.I am glad it did. Sunday looked at 6 homes and 4 of them had lowered their prices in the last 10 days. Interesting.

Take care

old john

waldo said...

I'm sure you will find a nice home for the right price. There are for sell signs everywhere in our little community and nothing around here is getting better. The company I used to work for has 70% of there work force laid off. The market doesn't trade on fundelentals or we would be sub 500 on the spy, it's all bull crap in my opinion. That is why I don't trust any of the crap the govt. puts out because they all lie to get there aganda thru. waldo.

boris said...

Dear Waldo,
Dear John,
Really big thanks for expressing opinions about and around your surroundings.

Good Trading My Dear Friends

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

Does the currency market rhyme or what? Brutish got to a high of 1.4690, go to low of 1.4578, and bounce back to 1.4650. Just like yesterday. and market goes nowhere again...

Good trading dear friend,

Michael

boris said...

Well, Dear Michael,
We did think that meandering is what is likely most!

Good Trading My Dear Friend

Hopper said...

Fibo tally… (approximate counts)

We are approaching the following…
233 trading days ago SPX went below 1400
144 trading days ago SPX went below 1200
89 trading days ago SPX had 1st dip below 800
55 trading days ago SPX went below 800

We just passed…
34 trading days ago SPX reached 667

Good Trading

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

Do you see the pennant or inverted megaphone forming on EUR daily? What do you make of it? Break up or down from 1.3050?

Thanks dear friend,

Michael

boris said...

Dear Hopper,
Thanks for very important info.

Good Trading My Dear Friend
And Good To hear from you.

boris said...

Dear Mickael.
Certainly a break above 1.35 or even above 1.335 will be something that would not fit entirely neatly into the June lows in EUROs.

So, Yes I do see the what you say and it bears watching for sure

Good Treaind Dear Michael

boris said...

Did we mention 861 today.
I think we did.
That is a second Hourly IHAP and Market stopped there DEAD and turne down back close to 10 points now ( EMINI).

OK!

Good Trading

boris said...

We are closing around 1% from where we closed on 4/5 HUH!

With having swung about 2.5 % from that level for last 22 days.

Did somebody think that sideways move?

I must have at some time

Good Trading And have a NICE DAY
Thanks for being with us

lagscrew said...

look at all the indicators on the rounded top in aug 08--look familiar

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=1&mn=7&dy=0&id=p69380628678

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Good morning...EurUsd has been rallying all night...D you expect this to continue or do you envision something else for today...

xerxes said...

Essentially reached First High Hourly Dear Boris....

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Look for my expectations explanation at DOTNET
Thanks Dear Xerxes

boris said...

Dear Lag,
I agree that we have a tired configuration. Having that said, we had the tired configuration for a long time now.

Pressure charts are indicating a definite ovextension.

Still, I lean on the short side as well, but would prefer one more MDS cycle to play out

Good Trading and thanks Dear Lag.

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....I like the 'Trend' feature...You didn't mention your methodology but I just use the MACD Hist for 4, 1 and 15 min...

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Awesome call on AUDJPY yesterday...You should post a 'FX call of the day'....That cross moved 3%....Catching only 1/2 the move is a nice day's work :-) You never cease to amaze :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Thanks and Good Trading My Dear Freind. Let us move to new POST(:-