Saturday, April 25, 2009

More Of The same Till Fed Speaks


We keep saying for last year and a half that this is not your fathers STOCKS MARKET and people must find the Nice Yield stocks and stick with them, instead of of going for either total market or short term trading. Well. With that approach the stocks like KMP and EPD my biggest favorites are not only safe, but are close to even October levels and YIELDED over 9% ( annually). So, what else is new. People always go for what worked last year or two, instead of understanding how and why markets have changed! With the FED day coming up on Wednsday and market very emotionally charged as many are feeling to have missed the move and many ready to take profits on a moments notice, the always manipulative FED will, probably, try to run the markets up ( can always find something to encourage the rally!). So, If there are times when one should be careful and stay close to trade, this is the time. We could be up 60-70 points before the ond of this weak or down 60-70 points. Who knows markets may even start moving before the FED day.








From Dear Joe, A little Very Relevant and Timely Joke/True Story?




============================================================
A little boy wanted $100.00 very badly and prayed for weeks, but nothing happened .
Then he decided to write God a letter requesting the $100.00.
When The postal authorities received the letter to God , USA , they decided to send it to the President.
The president was so amused that he instructed his secretary to send the little boy a $ 5.00 bill. The president thought this would appear to be a lot of money to a little boy. The little boy was delighted with the $5.00 bill and sat down to write a thank-you note to God, which read: Dear God: Thank you very much for sending the money. However, I noticed that for some reason you sent it through Washington D.C. and those assholes took $95.00 in taxes.

70 comments:

boris said...

This came from Dear John,
Nice peace of info.

Jack-Bauer-couldnt-stop Goldman ConspiracyThanks My Dear Friend John.

boris said...

Well, Deaer Readers,John,

If only all of these people understood that SOPITALISM works the way it works.

And I started my blog( way before other realised) with this name so that people can understand that:

1)There is nothing new in SOPITALISM. This is the way entire world operates very long time, well , perhaps for as long as Power existed in any form.
2)Each instance of SOPITALISM( including ours) will some day explode , perhaps via grass roots movement or fake cue arranged by another dark force, which will bring another stage of SOPITALISM in.
3) It is a faint hope of mine that ANTISOPIALIST world will last for us to have a memoery of it , if not the real lasting ANTISOPITALISM.

Good Trading

John said...

Boris,
Good morning.

old john

boris said...

Dear John,
Good Morning
to you My Dear Friend

lagscrew said...

intermediate top

http://lh5.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/SfPvYw3GpzI/AAAAAAAAC7I/rGQhupEXmio/s1600-h/image%5B5%5D.png

lagscrew said...

http://lh5.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/SfPvbIF1dGI/AAAAAAAAC7o/AeNv0CgdW2A/s1600-h/image%5B17%5D.png

lagscrew said...

http://lh3.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/SfPvcflS7UI/AAAAAAAAC8A/-fGygYHYJcE/s1600-h/image%5B26%5D.png

John said...

Boris,

I have a little KMP-- bought a little UNG friday also, along with a small short position. very small short position, either lose coffee money or add to it. See what happens this week.

old john

Watch the swine flu- big news here in arizona. no reported infections yet, but that would definitely affect commerce.
patience

boris said...

Dear John,
Good Trading to you my Dear Friend.
This will be an emotional week for sure.

We have no ChANGE IN MDS status.

Sara said...

I beg your pardon..

If one bought KMP 6 months or longer ago your equity value would be down 10% or greater (no don't tell me you were brilliant and bought at Oct or march lows) which would more than offset ANY yield.

Sara said...

Futhermore....my above comments are frankly the EXACT reason why chasing / buying dividends is bogus. I remember when Fannie and Ginny were touted as GREAT dividend positions.....and what happened to them ?

Sorry Boris....I am finding myself disagreeing with you more often than not as of late.

Sara said...

Boris...
On 1/4/08 you suggested investments in GIM/FAM/TEI/KMP.

GIM down 11%
FAM down 25%
TEI down 28%
KMP down 16%

Chasing income (dividends) does NOT work.

boris said...

Deear Sara,
I recommended KMP for a long time and will keep recommending it. I bought KMP around 42.

Most of my purchases where around November as I always scale into these things it was announced here.

Actually, if I was not busy, I could have bought KMP at 37.

But the point is simple. Over next for years the market is expected to be down below the lows we have seen and that 9% a year will look great.

How many stocks do you know that are above October Highs or lows?

One must be super trader to catch them.

October was just a month to mention. My approach to things is very simple.

I buy something and look for another 10% decline and buy more and then another and another.

KMP never gave you more than 2 chances. That is a strong stock.

Excuse me, If yould like to compare business model of FNMA and FREDDY to KMP, I think we do not have much to discuss.

THERE CAN BE NO business that is simpler than KMPs.

And it is a monopoly.

Just to get the licences to lay the pipes ( 40000 Miles) under the USA will cost anybody 100s of billions and 10s of years.

So, sorry to even start comparing the KMP with other things.

EPD is even better, it does not lay pipes as much as it just services them.

I would say that unless you do better short term trading then us ( we were the only ones that cought the exact bottom with prior knowlege), I do not think you can do better than 9% a Year.

Especially where 2 year TBILLS are still under 2%.

We anticipate the stagnant market for many years to come and 9% is a dream for any retiring person.

Dear Sara, what would you rather suggest?

Do you have better ideas?

You have all of us for your recommendations

Good Trading Dear Sara

boris said...

Dear Sara,

You are simpley distorting how we trade.

We accumulate things we do not put all money at once.

I bought FAM as low as 3. cna change

You are missing totally our method

We are ready to hear from you again.

What is your recommendation?

If you are super trader we would like to hear that. But for investment we do what we do.

Now it is your turn to suggest the next recommendations.

Criticism is invalid for the reasons described above

Good Trading

boris said...

I bought LQD in batchs below 85 at 8% YEILD and now wer are 96.

EXcuse me Dear Sara.

You seem to have missed totally on what we do.

Ok.

First of all even with all those investments wer are only 21% invested we sold them on the rally.

If you really wanted to compare anything to anything, You would say

Ok, this many was recommending the BOND like stocks from October, but He really went out of his way to call the bottom at 666 better than anybody you know(:-?

So, if he/boris really bought the things there. Why wound you count them from there.

Again, Dear Sara.

I hope you are not somebody wanting to distrot, but I think you are somebody that does not grasp our method and certainly have not yet provided your own recommendations

Good Trading Dear Sara

boris said...

Just for everybody else to understand.

I hope the GOD to take the KMP and EPD down , where I can buy them again at those low prices that we had in November ( they did not make new lows in FEBruary).
I would not care about capital gains. I would load up on them with two hands of mine.

That is how strong I feel about them.

KMP and EPD have nothing to do with likes of FANNY and FREDY.

Two totally different worlds

Totally Different.

I can only figure that if SARA could not see that difference, she is probably pretty inexperienced investor anyway.

FENNY and FREDY were/are pipeline of lies and repository of parasites, KMP and EPD are the simplest business in the world.

Those are kind of business that BUFFET buys. PG, COKE , etc.

Why.

No derivatives, no, machinations of any kind. These are the businesses that anybody ( should) can understand

Good Trading all

Sara said...

Was Fannie and Freddie not MONOPOLY and simple business models ?

I am not trying to distort the facts. You made a statement and I research your blog and simply posted what I found from YOUR blog.

My point is that to suggest that buying INCOME in this market is the way to go is a catch 22......you may find INCOME, but the ultimate price to pay (equity drawdown) for that may VERY likely be MORE THAN offset.

Sara said...

Why is it IF I have objective comments (based on your web comments) that I am
1) uninformed
2) have hidden agenda
3) ignorant
4) inexperienced

boris said...

Dear Sara,
Your research is incomplete.
Because you do not understand how we do things and that can be excused.

But No, FANNY and FREDDY are known sesspools.

Excuse me, not even close.

Even Dr. GREENSHADES was talking about them posing the "SYSTEMIC RISK" to USA and World Finance.

Ok, Did you ever hear him say that about KMP and EPD.

These are simple business models.

FNMA is anything but simple. It is manipulated by FED it is politically suicidal. It has been part of contorversy for decades.

Only Political machinations were able to stop the truth from becoming COMMON knowlege.

I have no problem knowing what FANNY and FREDY were, but you seem to not have known.

How else could you , even compare.

So, Choke to the (Mis)information that there are lot of people in the world( not just USA) that believed those were good trustable companies. Too bad.

Some of us knew it for a long time what those REALY were/are.

Did you know that right now as we speak, their ( so called) Prime mortgages are undergoing the foreclosure rates that are so alarming it could rival the SUBPRIME( which , actually they were not that much part of).

Ok, I hope that You know more facts now to not compare them to simple business of flowing gas trhought pipes.

Good Trading Dear Sara

boris said...

You Dear Sara,
May not have agenda.
I only said that you may.
I seem to get lot of those types lately.

Uninformed in our methods you are. Certainly.

Inexpereinced investor you are or you would not compare KMP with FANNY. SORRY

I did not mention word ignorant.


Sorry I did not.

In any case i stand behind

1) You may have agenda, but I think , now that you probably do not.
2) You are not ignorant.
3) You are not familiar with our methods
4) YOu are not experienced investor

But in time, seems like you will be. Because you seem to at least, try to understand and criticise what I write.

That is excellent start for you to become better investor.

Congrats Dear Sara

xerxes said...

Great Joke there Dear Boris...

From CNN.com

Army: 3 vials of virus samples missing from Maryland facility

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Missing vials of a potentially dangerous virus have prompted an Army investigation into the disappearance from a lab in Maryland.

http://72.14.235.132/search?q=cache:vM-TJfG7l-QJ:www.cnn.com/2009/US/04/22/missing.virus.sample/index.html+www.cnn.com/2009/us/04/22/missing.virus.sample/&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk

Will market crash upon open Dear Boris?

lagscrew said...

http://www.screencast.com/users/Canterbury/folders/Jing/media/0c4c6703-a51e-4503-96ea-ac04f87e7fab

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

I suspect that in the near future we will have more grey market employment. There will be a sort of multi-tiers pay structure to avoid taxation but still be counted in the employment figure. For example, we may see more semi-contract employees where a certain portion of their income will be in a cash accrual basis with a small portion probably just at or above minimum wage. This will have profound impact on state and federal revenues. Obama is going to be in for a rude awakening because even if the employment numbers appear rosy, the actual tax revenues will be extremely low. This may be the only way for the people to rebel against the sopitalists.

Good trading dear friend,

Michael

boris said...

Dear Michael,
I suspect, that underground ecocomy is already large and you are thinking right.

GOod Trading Dear Michael

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
We shall see. What happens, it looks so far, like we may get the Dollar not declining ( Means rising (:- ) and that could really do it. That is crash and burn stocks

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear Lag, thanks for all the infrmation you publish here.

Good Trading

boris said...

Even though Dollar started stronger and stocks lower, they have both hit the support resistance points.

EMINI has a nice support around 847 area, where it jumped a bit from.

Swissy has a resistance around 1.1450 and that has rejected the SWISSY.

So, who knows, we maybe seeing reversal here. I did buy some SWISSy when around 1.1445 and have very thigh stops.
Good Trading

boris said...

I was asked to talk more about OIL, glad to.

And I will, but, the reason we talk a lot about currencies is because the currency movements are the mother of all other movements.

How so?

OK, please go to stockcharts.com and do a perfchart on USO, FXE ( OIL and EURO).

What do you see?


Exactly! there is a startling correlation between the two ( positive one , of course).

I know that currencies have been not on forefront for most of the subscribers , readers, but I know that, that is wrong.

No investoer could be good investor without currencies.

I guarantee you that.

So, please , for your own education and success. Pay attention to our currency musings.

Good Trading

boris said...

I was asked about DIG
What status is DIG in?

Daily Trend UP, but will go down if 24 is penetrated (below) today.
On an hourly bases DIG is negative.

So

DIG HOURLY TREND Negative
DIG DAILY TREND Positive
DIG WEEKLY TREND Negative
DIG MONTHLYTREND Negative
Good Trading

xerxes said...

Good Morning Dear Boris...Well the handle is being fashioned on the EURUSD 1 hour...Looks nice...It has extended from the channel (ETB 13;.05)top to the channel bottom and can push to a bit below 1.31 and still be a valid formation, or so they say...

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Just notice that you shorted USDCHF...You got more cajones than I :-)

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

It looks like last Friday's 1.4770 is the local high on GBP for awhile. I am still kicking myself for taking the trade off after not getting hit on the first pass @ 1.4763 (short)(I had 1.4765.) I had to leave for a bit so I took the trade off. I saw later that it hit 1.4773 which was a trendline I had for about 6 weeks now. Ohh well off to hunting for the next trendline... PS I think financials are going to be pressured all this week.

Good trading dear friends,

Michael

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
I got stopped out, actually with minimal gain.
I have gone long CHF just few minutes ago and again stand at break even.
I do not really know what will happen in the short term.

I think, Dear Micahels comment reminds me that all euro currencies could com under pressure, but we have not reached any place where I can either confirm that or not. So, I am justplaying the games until it gets seious(:-

Good Trading Dear Xerxes.

One thing is clear, Dollar is not yet showing the weakness that would bother me. It could though, the day is still young.

boris said...

Dear Michael,
I agree that GBP is perhaps going down as we earlier surmised.

I am inclined to think that perhaps all euros may follow that.
Have no limits hit to tell me that is the case, but watching careful the Dollar percentage declines I oulined.

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...I was lucky this morning in that I was ready to sell dollars as I mentioned on the prior thread...But when European trade began, the dollar rally was substantial enough to stay my hand. Additionally, you argued persuasively that the dollar would stare into the abyss but pull away for the time being...I listened today :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Ad YOGI bera said,
"You can observer a lot by looking."

IT is worth knowing what to look for.

I do not know yet, if PATTERNS are winning or not, but it looks that way and we shall,see.

I sm still watching carefully at the levels I described, If Dollar sudenly falters, need to be ready.

So far patterns have the upper hand and if they persist one more day, the momentum could join them as well.

That would not be the first time the "hidden" pattern leads the mementum bo nose. But let us see it as it develops. I am still open to all directions, but prefer the pattern (DOLLAR UP) direction

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...The 180 pip move in EURUSD formed a nice handle...The MAE 13 containing retrace for the moment...

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....Daily DAX contained by its MAE 13 from the upside so your POV seems to be the correct one so far..

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

Strange that gold and dollar are opposite again. Also Gold is acting the same way as stock so are we looking at the anti-dollar relationship again? gold and stock as anti-dollars?

Good trading dear friend.

Michael

boris said...

Dear Mike,
Agree, gold is behaving opposite to what it used to do lately ( going with Dollar and now not going with it).

So, yes, perhaps that starts to indicate about unrest in GOLD land.

As I said, I don ot turst gold Until it breaks 955 or so area.
But short term it has gone up.

Good Trading Dear Mike

John said...

Boris,

good morning

old john

boris said...

Dear John,
Good Morning
Good Trading My Dear Friend

xerxes said...

dear Boris...looks like your dollar call will be spot on...How could I ever have doubted...I will become a flagellant to atone for my sins :-)

John said...

Boris,

Looks as if my very small short SDS will work out ok

thanx

old john

TwinGems said...

Lagscrew,

Thanks for sharing your charts.

Carol

boris said...

congrats Dear John,
Good Trading My Very Dear Friend.

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Anybody can make be right once in a while.

But I was ready to be wrong, and is more comforting fact to me than I was , so fare, proven right

Good Trading Dear Friend Xerxes

xerxes said...

,,,,Anybody can make be right once in a while,,,,

You are very modest Dear Boris :-)

boris said...

Dear Readers,Subscribers.

Here is the fact, all to often the momentum is a demise of relatively inexperienced trader.

Last Frieday the Dollar looked like it was on the ropes? Momentum wise, even I was ready to give up on Dollar.

But the Patterns have preveailed and mementum now is biting strong those who took positions against Dollar.

That means those that shorted stocks and shorted currencies have made money inspite the fact that Dollar momentum was looking bad.

The day before exactly opposite has happened.


So, there you go. Momentum Traders are victims of their own method.

That is why I never trust any oscillators ( unless they are pressure oscillators) MACD or anything, unless they go with the the expected patterns.

So, there you go. It is hard as it is in the market.

I am not going to be geceived by momentum indicators.

On the other hand I love them when they confirm my pattern expectations. I love them very much.

So, you see, there are two situations for me as a trader.


1) Pattern and Momentum coincide.
Love that, I am in the markekt
2) Pattern and Momentum diverge
I hate this and "I STAY OUT WITHIN DOUBT"


Good Trading

boris said...

Stocks , With all the apperent weakness, have not broken,

They have not moved byond what I announced this morning to be a support 847. How about that. The stocks market is refusing to break up or break down. I can not help but agree that trend, however weak, at this point is higher, because the market is above all but shortest 5 minute trends and bearly below Hourly trend.

So, Do nothing? Wait for FED?

You are in the market. I can only tell you how I feel. I do not feel risking capital either way. Right now

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...We still have an active C&H formation....

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Could be, nothing is yet decided,
Everything can still change.

Need to be on alert.
I still like the odds for the patterns to win.

Good Trading

boris said...

Sorry, Need to be out next hour or so, ENJOY lunch time

Good Trading

boris said...

Ok, looks like it is not now that I need time, it may be later. I will inform you.

While some are waiting what is going to happen in the markets. Some are making momey, while waiting.

It is those people that Get payed

S A F E D I V I D E N D

In spite of lot of dividen cancelations out there. There is Safe(r) Dividend out there.

Good Trading

boris said...

Swissy is running for the 4th. and running fast

Good Trading

boris said...

Dollar Is running like a real marathoner today
Good Trading

xerxes said...

Just amazing Dear Boris....I should have doubled down :-)

boris said...

While SWISSY is pushing the 4th the EMINI stock market is supporting on an hourly channel. We could have quick turn here
Good Trading

xerxes said...

2nd daily low in sight Dear Boris... Should we mow it down? :-)

Ivan said...

Dear Boris/xerxes, what is your opinion for EURGBP for short/intermediate term? Thanks

xerxes said...

That C&H was a bogus idea anyways Dear Boris...Must avoid those spirits when working :-)

xerxes said...

I haven't any opinion Dear Ivan...I defer to Dear Boris...

boris said...

We just hit the fitfth on GBPCHF so, I believe the GBP is overdone for today. Against EUROS.
At that same time it has been going down lately and I believe will continue after stopping at 50-61 FIBO and whatever AP comes with it tomorrow?
Well,

Just checked and the fifth alos was a 50 FIBO!!!!

Good Trading

boris said...

SWISSY going for fifth !!!

Good Trading

boris said...

Stock market was not able to hang on the upper channel ( hourly) now it is at the lower channel will it?

The SWISSY may have exhausted itself as it hit the fifth IHAP (HOURLY) just now.
So, this fianlly may give stocks some reprieve.
Good Trading

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris

If we do not bounce off 1.4578 on GBP we could be looking at 1.4466 as the next real support. I need better trigger finger. Saw the high at 1.4690 as touching the top of my downtrend channel but I chickened out again. (I wanted it to run the stops above 1.47 before getting in short). arrgg...

Good trading dear friend,

Michael

boris said...

Dear Mike,
I know/feel your sentiment.
Gbp did not exactly play the game right.

While the GBPCHF seems to. Hit the fifth, with incredible precision.

I know, I do not provide the APS( houly) on this pair.

Perhaps, I should , but then where do I stop? there are so many pairs!

God, this world is so complex, EVEN, when you know what you want/desire

Good Trading

boris said...

Sorry, I had to stepp out, but what we said happened.

Yes the SWISSY turned down from the 5th and the STocks wend higher from that point.

You know dear Subscriber and Readers, I do not think there are too many forecasters out ther that do the kind of things we do day in and day out.

These little calss together with big calls we make, should bring us staisfaction that we are indeed a lucky group that GOD decided to help.

In my best dreams I did not think that we can do all of these things day in day out , month in month out.

Thank you for being with us

GOOD TRADING

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....Maybe on dotnet you could write a couple sentences everyday letting us know your thoughts on daily currency movements, just like we were discussing on this board the last few trading sessions...That way, we'd have a heads up on which set of AP's we should be thinking about...Had I not been a subscriber I'm sure I would have lost money the last couple sessions :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes, If I ws not a subscriber, I would have also lost money?(:-

It might be a duplication to do that, as we write and discuss here so much. Perhaps though , what you mean is that , dute to the multiple comments, this here lacks focus, for the readers fast comprehention. I will agree with that. And a summary on DotNet, nay be more focused and bullet like and stick more in memory.(we hope).

Good Trading