Friday, April 03, 2009

Market Tired, but out of fire

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834.98 838.23 843.56 849.93 emini
827.77 824.52 819.19 812.69

32.49 32.75 33.18 33.6846 qqqq
31.91 31.65 31.23 30.71

449.32 450.35 452.04 454.06 rut
447.03 446.00 444.31 442.25

837.92 840.63 845.08 850.39 spx
831.91 829.20 824.75 819.33

905.69 907.36 910.10 913.37 xau
907.36 909.03 911.77 915.11

1.1361 1.1374 1.1395 1.1421 chf
1.1374 1.1387 1.1408 1.1434

53 comments:

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Good morning
I hope that you have a great day:)!

Bert

John said...

Boris,

good morning

old john

boris said...

Dear Bert,
Very Good Morning to you my Dear Freind.

We will have a great day.
Together(:-

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear John,
Very Good Morning to you My Deare Friend.

It is a pleasure to welcome
you every morning I can(:-

Good Trading

Mike Truong said...

Good Morning Boris,

Brutish Poung is getting stronger each day...Hmmm...This strength reminded me of early January when I climbed hard into NFP and just rolled over. Will history repeat itself?

Good Trading dear friend,

Mike

boris said...

Dear Mike,
Brutish just reached the highs of yesterday. All In All, that is not too much really. My expection is BRUTTISH down next 5 monhts.

Where I have a problem is that it has come down so much, that there may not be much to go down(:-

In another words, IT has had a waterfall decline so far. It is scary, but it could be more scary if it is destined to undergo another waterfall into Sept/Oct 2009, which it definitely could.

Because of that fear that it may have come too much already, I am not pushing my luck in GBP shorts, but I am still short smaller amounts, so that I can build if I have to

Good Trading Dear Mike

And Good Morning to you

Mike Truong said...

dear Boris,

Job numbers is blah as expected...We chopped again today I think.

Good Trading,

Michael

boris said...

Yes, Dear Mike,
So far, reaction in currency markets is almost opposite from expected, but it is temporary in my best estimat. Yet it allows stock market to move lower, which is maybe how this contradictions I spoke about will resolve.

That is ,.. Currencies do not go up too fast, at least, not immediately and that could allos stock market to come down from the trees!(:-

Good Trading

boris said...

836.50 was ST Down.
ST up is far at 842.5

boris said...

Market has stopped at the lower hourly channels at 832

boris said...

You may have notcied that EMINI top was precisely! Third Hourly IHAPoint

Good Trading

boris said...

Unless Stock Market manages to go over 840 again sometime today. The trend may have shifted, Hourly Trend I mean

Good Trading

boris said...

Market has managed here to change the ST up at 831.75 and ST down is at 829.75

boris said...

We entered ST down in action, st up is 833.25

boris said...

Market has just hit ST DOWN continuation at 827.25

TwinGems said...

Dear Boris,

Good morning.. I know this is a silly question but when you write ST down continuation at 827.25..does that mean anything below that is in a down trend..where as above 833.25 is up trend?

Thank you.

Carol

boris said...

Dear Mike,
Absolutely that was the case then,

Now ST up is at 829.75

TwinGems said...

Hi Boris,

Can you tell me do you still buy on dip even though one of the MDS is close to sell... I assume once one of them goes to sell it signals more of a choppy move.

Thanks
Carol

boris said...

As Currencies have shifted up, so has the stocks market!

boris said...

Dear Mike,
My decisions are very colored by patters I follow. They come almost before MDS.

MDS, when in corner( like it was 13 day on buy at 666 ) can jump in front of all other considerations, but not always.

The truth is even Patters do not mean anything at the end of the day.

Example if we were attckeed when we bought at 666 I would have got out of all the things that are not part of the core Stock holdings( never sell core).

So, my decision making ins complex and does not depend on one thing or the other and mix gets different priorities depending where each one of them is at that moment.

But, I am willing to take the short term position in my predominant thinking and see if it is correct, I will follow it...

So, inspite of being a best prepared and equipped with APs FIBOS turn dates and all else. Final decision comes with ST trends, because at the end of the day, I will not make a trade that risks a lot...

REMEMBER this my IRON RULE

1) do not lose money!
2) read rule above
3) read the rule above
you get the idea...

Even as I make the most spectacular predicions years ahead of time, when we get there nothing exists , but a short term trend. That is what decides for me.

That is for trading. For asset allocation, I am willing to add or subtract at a less dramatic times and places.

In any case the short answer is. At this time I do not buy dips. Otherwis I would certainly have bought at 775. Remember I was pretty confident we go to 838, but did not buy.

Perhaps among other things, due to the upcoming EUROPEAN trip.
Whatever the reason. I do not buy the dips, here. We have prettey heavy sell pressure and PCRATION could turn any time. If I was to buy it will be for a short term and will be guided by my own short term TRENDS method, in conjunction with APs.

I hope , you can get out of this short as well as, long term picture, on how I trade.

Good Trading Dear Mike

boris said...

Market is now rejected at the hourly channels slanting down. Lelt us see if it has a strength to go to the upper side of the channel at 836. And even at 840, where it could actually bend the channel up and that would an interesting development for BULLS and not so good for BEARS.

I still think that we go lower into 7th April +-1 day , but , willing to change my mind as the market shows new developments. A move about 840 will a new development indeed.

Good Trading

boris said...

At 829.75 Market marks the ST down again. It did early this morning exactly ST Down at that point!
Good Trading

boris said...

Gold Is meandering lower, And I think It also has some sort of lower destination into 8April +-1 day. Interesting for Stccks and Gold to go down together. We shall see if it happens

Good Trading

boris said...

So Far,
As noticed by everybody(:-

The high and low of the market were almost preciasely on the 3rd ILAP and IHAP of hourly Attraction Points(APs). Pretty good ha. What do we call this?

INSIDE DAY

Good Trading

Mike Truong said...

dear Boris,

As I said this morning after the NFP came out and the reaction of teh currencies were muted, I thought today would be a choppy day. However the way the currencies are behaving, I think we can have one more up day on Monday before we really have some action. On my chart, I see GBP possibly hitting 1.5035 by 4/7 to 4/8 which possibly will mark a IT top (3-4 weeks) and a bottom of 1.4150 or 1.3740 around mid to late April. What do you think of this scenario?

Thanks and good trading dear friend,

Michael

boris said...

Dear Mike,
There maybe room for GBP to rally more, but I think it may have reached the high today. Still, It is possible that we may get one more attempt to higher highs into 1.50 area, After which I agree, we should see the decline in GBP. Yes much of it may come towards mid/late APRIl, but also it should continue into SEPT/OCT.

Good Trading Dear Mike

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

If I have learn nothing else these last few weeks interacting with you and the rest of the wonderful posters on here, it is that in trading patience is a must. We must wait for most or all of our indicators/setups to be favorable before taking a trade thus skewing our chances toward success. Too many times in the past, I have jumped the gun to take a trade because I wanted to be in the trade before it really developed. Thanks again for showing me that not taking a trade is also a good thing.

Good Trading dear Friend,

Michael

waldo said...

I read somewhere this morning that the imf dumped 403 tons of gold to raise money.waldo.

boris said...

Dear Mike,
Exactly so,

1) select the trade
2) do not lose too much ever

I never state the 1st rule above, why, it looks so obvious, but it is not, because lot of people do not follow that.

If you forget the rule #1 and are good at rule #2 you have a chance and eventually will acquire the knowlege for rule #1.

If one had neither rule #1 and #2 That trade is dead. Completely dead.

If a trader can not see RR before trade is put on then that trader is not a trader, not even amateur.

Only when one knows the total risk of the , the trade can be put on, otherwise it can not be. ABSOLUTELY NOT.

And If the INITIAL Reward/Risk ratio is too much, because one does not see that much potential in trade or does not have enough money to see through that trade, then it willnot/should not be put. AGAIN ABSOLUTELY NOT.

Once these two rules are mastered with IRON discipline then all else becomes easy.

I would add that the ASSET ALLOCATION is a wanderful thing.

In the past I used to worry when market went against me.

No, I am happey when market goes against me, because I am always positioned to load more of what I already have(:-

That is why some people do not understand that if I am 20% invested and market goes to the sky, I will make not 100% but good money. If the market collapses, I will buy it cheaper.


How bad could it be that I , actually do not care much where market goes.

It is an incredible feeling that I did not have for 20 years of trading. Now I do!

I am HAPPY MAN NO MATTER WHERE MARKET GOES!

If this is not an incredible transformation in me, I do not know.

I attest it is. It makes me a totally different person/trader than I was just 5-10 years ago.

Dear Mike Understood and appreciate what you said.

That is exactly what I have to teach, in principle - THE PATIENCE. But since it is easier to grasp then implement than the tecniques must be implemented that make that REALisable!

That is where my technologies I developed come in. They make it possible for me to think this way and implemente it too.

Hallelujah!

boris said...

Dear Waldo,
You and I did not know about IMF selling gold,( YESTERDAY GORDON BROWN announced that as part of agreement), but we did see GOLD was to be sold. Remember few weeks ago, we exactly identified the top to they week and day?

YES.

That sort of a thing also helps to devleop discipline.

BIG WAY

Good Trading Dear Waldo

boris said...

Dear Waldo, Readers, Subscribers
Let us remind ourseves, that even after identification that GOLD was due for correction, we did not jump and SELL GOLD! remember, we took a safer and , GOD KNOWS, more profitable road...

We bought OIL and sold GOLD!

Made 35% while gold only declined 5% in the same period.

HA!
haha
hahaha

It is amazing to what lengths one can go to create a SAFER ( and often more) profitable TRADE

Good Trading

boris said...

I will reiterrate here another wonderful part of the market analysis that makes it possible for us to be patient/smart investors.

It is intermarket analysis.

Lot of people to come to us are amazed with the fact that we seem

"to know all markets"

How is this possible?
How cam one person be able to do that?

Actually, the answer is simple.

Every person either knows that "INTERMARKET DISCIPLINE" or has someone to give that perspective or it is impossible to win in the markets.

Remember the GUITAR analogy?

OK without having this TOTAL view is like having not big thumb on ones hand. It becomes much harder to play nice harmony with that defficiency.

INTERMARKET ANALYSIS is the one of the master keys to trading.

I am glad that a lot of people that come to us, eventually, become aware( if not masters) of this secret of INTERMARKET ANALYSIS

That is another big chunk of what I am here to teach.

In Your case Dear Mike, I can see that you already have pretty strong(albeit incomplete) foundation for that kind of thinking.

I noticed Dear Xerxes has made good progress in that direction.

I know Dear John, had become avid currency follower after he joined us.

And you know what, those that have developed that sense of INTERMARKET analysis are/will eventually do better than those who do not.

I urge everybody to hang on every sentence I announce, that connects the differnet markets and the logic for their mutual influence.

These are golden bits of information that one learns that becomes the knowlege that , while not alwyas aknowleged, sits in the back ones mind and dictates wonderful ideas about markets and trading


Pleas enjoy all we do here.
Try to connect.
Look fro confluences.

We are here to teach the way to think, whithout it average investor and his/her capital is lost!

Good Trading

boris said...

This up move here, which started when the market STed up at 829.75, is showing what we thought would bad thing for BEARS. This move here unles reversed soon is bending the hourly channel/trend up. That means there is more upside coming our way ( again, unless this is a just tape painting ) to suck few in the long side.

Difference for us is this.

If one is so inclined and wants to trade. Must follow the ST moves here to get on the bigger wave UP or DOWN.

Good Trading

John said...

Boris,

I have a separate little laptop ( very cheap) just for the forex

old john

boris said...

Gold losing another 10 today!

Good trading

boris said...

I suggest that anybody that is serious about understanding markets have same arrngement as JOhn does. Or have a good/large screen/display to fit few markets together.

Like GOLD/STOCKS/OIL/EURO

Will do wandeful thing for your eventual comprehantion of the interrelations of these markets, besides enhancing your visual memeory of charts, so that you mind can produce tradomg odeas while you sleep.

Yes, throw some charts onto your brain and see , how you start , eventually generating trading Ideas you could neve seem to come up.

Good Trading

lagscrew said...

sold 1/2 fas 6.94 vs 6.34

boris said...

Dear Lag,
Good For you.

MY Dear Friend

boris said...

Ok, The Tape was painted and all those who got taken by it are now at loss.

The market is coming down lower to bend the hourly channel down again.

Good Trading

boris said...

We got most of what we wanted to get out of markets.

While CUrrencies have made a reasonably good progresson the upside( dollar down) , the Stocks mearket meandered sideways for another distribution day.

Just as well! We still think market may have hard time going up, unless the EURO excelerates really fast on the upside.

Good Trading

Have a nice weekend and

Thanks For Being With US

Vin said...

Have a wonderful weekend, Boris. :)

Even though this market is hardly moving pricewise, it's doing quite a job of shaking out shorts: so much garbage floated up to the surface today. We must be close to a pullback of some sort with this distribution/rotation. Or maybe we'll just get lots of sideways, since the trend/YBR is up. :P

John said...

Boris,

You mentioned painting the tape. The DOW rallied 42 points in less than 3 minutes at the end. Do you think they wanted 8000 ?

old john

lagscrew said...

forgot to post but sold last half of FAS just before the last surge up before the close--to bad as I just sold it when it took off

boris said...

Dear Vin,
I agree,
The market has done everything to shake bulls and bears a like.

I think though this all should be viewed in light of distribution. after a sizable move up. All this action is exactly around FIBO for two days now. That is normal, ACTUALLY.

I am 65% in the downside probability camp. That is a lot in the markets. But would not surprised to see further up move, as Currencies carry the day. So, it will be not the market moving, because in EUROS market is not really moving much up. Only , now depreciating Dollar.

Good Trading

boris said...

8000 is nice number. Very attractive number!

Yes, they want(ed) that very much

Good Trading My Dear Friend John

boris said...

Dear Lug
Good Luck and Good Trading My Dear Friend

chris said...

Hi Boris,

This is Chris here.I still do not have my paypal 4 digit number. Is there any other way I can pay you to get the seefuture standalone report? Also, is it similar to your site. meaning it uses attraction points? if so, do you also provide instructions on how to use it?

Thanks,

Chris

boris said...

Deaer Chris,
Response was sent to you via email.

We will provide with that Document all other service you may desire free.

Meaining , suppose SEEFUTURE says the OIL is moving higher next 3 months. You, as subscriber to seefuture will have access to all methods we use to position yourself on any timeframe short-intra, intermediate - daily, Long - Yearly and Decennial -very long.

All those APs will be available to you.

Such as the one that helped us to become bullish on OIL/USO at 24, when everybody was dijected by OIL or anything that looks like OIL.

We went long OIL and Short GOLD for 35% gain in less than a month.
1% a day.

Not bad.

Thanks Dear Chris.

We truly appreciate your interest. In our services

Good Trading

daveo said...

Ivan, would you try to erase my account again ? I tried to register again and was given a notice that the email account was already associated with another ID. Sorry for so much trouble. Daveo

xerxes said...

Good Afternoon Dear Boris....

Thank you for the nice mention yesterday :-)

Once you said that the inverse relationship of equities with the buck also holds true for the euro and european equities. I bought a 4th screen to watch the DAX and it seems that the euro moves in the same direction as the DAX....So could you kindly relate your impressions....BTW, must I pay a service to get live pricing for equities? The free services are lagged and tend to confuse because of that lag...Thanks Dear Boris...

Ivan said...

Daveo, you already have an account and your email address is confirmed (if I remember well I did it because you had some problem with email). So, you should be able to sign in.

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
The real time equities is recommended for quote, but indexes are free on most charting services, including YEHOO and others. Of course it helps for all to be on the same plarfrom as the uniformity of display helps to comprehend what you are looking at.

As far as equities versus dollar.

One hard rule ( with EXCEPTIONS !) is that Stocks ( all around the world ) go up when Dollar goes down. Stocks are ANTIDOLLAR remember!

Exceptions are another rule(:-

Exceptions, especially in short time frames will always be there.

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Thank you Dear Boris....I didn't realize that you meant 'worldwide' equities were anti-dollar as I thought you meant USA equities were anti-dollar and european equities were anti-euro, etc...

The yahoo index quotes are delayed 20 minutes or so...That delay seems to offer confusion for short-term trades....What good is that? Seems like real-time index quotes are necessary and I can't seem to find a service that offers that online for free...They all give delayed quotes....