Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Finally The Day Arrived.


Please note, PCratios are practically same as yesterday, so the same comments apply from yesterdays post.

FED day is upon us and we are almost where we were 22 days ago on closing bases. Sometime later than 4/5 we predicted ( using our trusted Pressure charts) that we could be in for upslanting sideways consolidation. Well, you are always the judge of what we sayd and what happened. Just look at the charts. Now, we maybe approaching the end of MEANDERING. We may have pretty sharp moves today one way or the other. Look at the pressure chart for expectations.

87 comments:

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....The 4th hourly high and 2nd daily high are close....So would it be fair to say that today one should be long EURUSD? or is that bogus thinking...

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
YOu already know, that pattern wise, I prefer EURUSD short. That is a few weeks outlook though.

As far as today I think EURO is overextended and As I already indicated , I think it will, most likely, go lower for, at least, till it meets the hourly Up channel. At this time the channel is around 1.3160 and rising fast.

I am assuming that Euro will move even lower, but would like to see the action at that time.

Hourly RSI is way extended.

Again, I am not smart enough to know what will happen exactly, but once/if I put a trade then I would know very early on , where am I getting out if I am wrong.

On the FED day anything happen.

Frankly, I prefer to stand aside on those days.

It is insanity to play the into hands of sharks that alreay know what FED will say and will gyrate this market at will.

No thanks, And I prefer my subscribers not get involved, but we all grown ups.

That is my take right now. EUR is overextended and needs some rest.

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

boris said...

if/when EURo goes over 1.34 it will get a lot more credit frm me(:-
not till then

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....You say this: "YOu already know, that pattern wise, I prefer EURUSD short. That is a few weeks outlook though." But I'm bullish now in EURUSD and am worried about the speeding train haring north...

boris said...

Dear Xerxes, so
you take action that looks good to you.

I am not taking EURO side until EURO clears 1.34.

It is now certainly moving higher and made the situation even more overbought.

But that is what strong markets do. So, for now EURO looks strong.
Even the stock market has finally confirmed it by breaking the trend line on the upside.

So, one can not deny the strenght in EURO. One can not deny overextension either.

I stay spectator so far

I have told you many, many times I do not know markets all the time and that is the case now.

So, I stay out.

Of course, you are welcome to decide that you want to participate.

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

boris said...

Euro,
Did not give any chance to get on it.

As I indicated, I am bad at getting on moging train.
(:-

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....That AUDJPY is on fire this morning....Looks like it's trying to close the April 24th window...

boris said...

Yes, Dear Xerxes
A lot of securities are trying or have closed the Weekend windows.

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
As a rule, If the Trend is not as defined by me is not in the same direction as the short term move, then I will not play the short term trend against prevailing trend

That is a rule, I never violate.
I hope this is clear.

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

boris said...

I should add the to the below rule.
It is abslolute rule, but has exception.

What is an exeption?

I am at a very important confulence of APS and/or FIBOS.

That is the only time I allow myself to violate the rule, because my point of reference is clearly defined by the AP/FIBO comobo. And My RISK/REWARD ration is very high.

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

Ivan said...

Boris, DotNet site is down again. This hoster is awful. I sent the message to their support.

boris said...

Of course,
ERRORR

"My REISK/REWARD ratio is high"
Of course, I meant "low" not high.

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear Ivan, thanks.
They were slow yesterday , down today.

yes, You are right.
We will talk to see what alternatives we have Dear Ivan,

Thank You so much, My Dear Friend

xerxes said...

dear Boris...third hit just now....seeems like the goal is what I said in first post today

boris said...

Dear Subscriber, Reader,
Disciplined trader I the only kind that consistantly makes money in the markets.

One of the absolute rules of a disciplined trader is that he/she waits for the setup he/she lines and tested.

It could be a great gravy train and trader could be looking at potential riches in the move if he/she could only take it,

B U T,

Disciplined trader will never take that trade.

Simply because it does not fit in his/her setup.

That is not just simple, this is th only way to remain sane in the markets.

Getting in the markets that did not set up the way you wanted is the same as ENGLISH speaker trying to read DOSTOEVSKY in RUSSIAN.

It will not work, why bother.

Know your setup and wait for it.

Everything else is just another BUS (not for you) and leave it alone.

Good Trading.

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,

Fine, I agree with you and especially posteriory.

But was there an entry point I liked. No.

So that is not for me.

The fact that APs brilliantly captured the thrid in both
SWISSY and EURO, speaks volumes for APS. But no setup no play for me(:-

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

boris said...

Dear Readers,
Since we are into education. Let us touch the subject, what is right and wrong in trading business.

Is it right to say that because trader has made money, trader war right?

Answer is quilaified (YES/NO)(:-

Why?

Ok here is how it goes.

1) Nobody can make money in markets without having a time tested system
2) Then it is is to judge the trader being right or wrong and criteria is not that trader made or lost money. Not at all.
The criteria is has trader followed rule or not. It,
A C T U A L L Y
Matterns none if trader made money or not.
WOW! now that is shoking is not it.
Trader made money and he/she was not right?
What Are you smoking BORIS?
Well what I am smoking is the rule 1) above. Ask a question is Trader following the system that has made him/her money.

If trader was not following the system then trader has no idea, why money was made on that trade, because trader can not repeate it?
So, this trade was bogus even if it made money and trader was not following the rules?

OK, Yes, there are trader evaluation systems that actually grade trader with negative value for not trading by rules ( even if trade has made money).

Remember it is a single trade.

can trader repate it. Of course, if trader can repate that success than trader now has a N E W , different system and trader should be graded according to that system.

But one trade does not the system make!

So, to close.

Follow the system or you are doomed

Good Trading

boris said...

One of the easiest systems we hav here on this site is the ASSET ALLOCATION SYSTEM. It is very, very easy. Indeed it is the easiest. The only critery one needs to take from external world is the comparative desirability of one asset versus other ( BONDS, GOLD, STOCKS, COMMODITIES, CURRENCIES).
Beyond that rules are very simple, when we are at the 70% desireablity are of a given asset we start accumulate that ASSET ( like stocks now).
Inverse when we are at 30% desirability of an asset we decumulate that asset, like Bonds now. Even Gold could be approaching that level.

How do I know whee those levels are?
Well that is a hystorical relationship analysis that I do all the time and that is why I recommended astonishing trades of GOLD/OIL ratio first and then the inverse.

Another easy system that we here to follow is , esentially to follow me, because I know and interpret my systems.

Another system to follow itself would be MDS ( uninterpreted), but that would have proven prifitable but difficult and as time goes It needs to be adapted to the new world, which has not been done and is done only in my head right now.

I will one of these days load the newer concepts in new MDS, but so far, I can not find the time to do so.

Another system is the system of APS.

We have incredibly caught the 666 low in the markets, due to the simple warning that ... 666 may act as the ANNUAL support for stocks.
That was all we needed to pull off the thing that nobody else has done.

"CATCH THE EXACT LOW OF THE MARKET" so far.

Then we have the system of turn dates. On its own it may or may not make money.

Then we have follow SEEFUTURE( ANTIDOLLAR PREDICTOR).

Then we have FOLLOW YBR ( Stock market predictor).


Now, any one of these may or may not be profitable, but when all of these are combined one has a powerful edge in the markets.

Of course the trend following system can also be used mechanically. Simply by going with trend UP UP UP or UP DOWN UP. for bulish case.

I hope that this survey is useful. Because without systems there is no gain in the market.

Good Trading

boris said...

Many of you may have guessed, the reason, I claim not to know the markets all the times( in fact, most of the time).

You see, unless markets come to me and announce to me that something significant is going on, I do not know and care about markets.

I only start to expend my Intellectual and Financial Capital when I see that totality of my perceptions ( colored by all systems as input) is flashing the light for action in the markets.

Until then I sit and wait.
That is my discipline.

Now, due to appearent compexity of my decision making i look stupid, because I do not always make decision. But that is fine with me.

I would rather look STUPID than lose money.

It is that discipline that allowed me to make call after call of world wide significance and recognition I go for them is what makes me who I am.

Anybody can make one call a year or two calls. Even GREAT ONE, Michael Jordan was only 44% precise.

But I do well on my long/intermediate calls because, I am "heavy" decision maker. But once I make it, it must have gone through a strict "STRESS TEST" in my brains and against my systems and then only I announce the call to the public.

Now wonder then the traders/forecasters world is not so simple. It is the most exciting thing , but simple it is not!

Good Trading

boris said...

GBP hit the third Hourly ILAP and is running down fast.

SWISSy and EURO are running lower as well and stock market is coming off.

Good Trading

boris said...

GBP now at upper channel of HOURLY variety.
Good Trading

boris said...

Ok,
While theorising about things I came across the document that reminded me about certain cycle that I have not checked lately.

It is suggesting a rally in EURO to last into May 1st +- 1 trading day.
This woulc imply that we may have the Market rally together with EURO today, which will fit pretty well into general I dea that Market should crest around late April early May.

So, Sell in May Go away is becoming true?!

I would not mind at all. I suspect Bernanke will rally markets anyway.
He does not have anything that is important , it is just that media will make it important.

Why else do we care what he announces anyway!?

In any case, while this new peace of cycle info does not 100% resolve anything it does give an edge of today tomorrow market rally to be more probable.

Good Trading

boris said...

Clarification.
We are only 2 days away from 1st of May. So, The cycle I am talking about may with some luck top even today as EURO rallied today , more than I would have thought this morning anyway.

So, please do not anandon main idea. We should be looking to the short side, but can not be too aggresive about it until perhaps Very Early in May.

Good Trading

John said...

Boris,

thanx

old john

boris said...

So, what is the potential high today?

Well 876 is fifth Hourly and daily 875 Daily SPX third and one more the Megaphone trendline glazing over the top of the market is around 890 area, which corresponds very well ( CONFLUENCES WELL) with the 4th EMINI around 890 as well ( 892 for SPX).

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear John,
Thanks My Very Dear Friend

Good Trading

boris said...

Let us make sure we all understand .

As it stands now all hourly trends are positive in markets favor.

EMINI channel is pointing up
EURO channel is pointing up
GBP channel is pointing up
USDJPY channel is pointing up

EMINI would have to drop below 850 to turn that channel down.
EURO would have to drop below 131.35 ( almost full point) to turn the channel down.
GBP needs to drop below 1.46 to turn the channel down.
JPY needs to drop to 96.49 to turn the channel down.

Good Trading

boris said...

I have lost the time windwo for 5 min AP calculations.

Somthing tells me they will not be the force today as the volatility will prevent them from being relevant.

I will still try to recover them for you.

But please concentrate on Hourly and Daily for now.
Good trading

boris said...

Stock market has reached the 4th Hourly IHAP and rejected so far
Good Trading

xerxes said...

They took out your 4th hourly Dear Boris...Moving towards 5th

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
yes, that is the case.

And that this point all We could do is watch, perhaps that may be a good sell point

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...5th is a handful of pips away now....You mentioned 1.34...What happens there? EURUSD has established higher low and higher high pattern now....

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...It is too close to Fed announcement to short....Frankly I'm scared to be wrong as the pain could be severe...
Stops don't always work with super high volatility...

boris said...

Well, Dear Xerxes,
Seems like you have case for

STANDING OUT

Good Trading

boris said...

So far so good,
over 25 cents from the fifth on CHF,
I took profit on one position letting another ride with a profitable stop.

You see, Deaer Xerxes, at fifth I have a courage to act.
Other places I am almost chicken(:

Good trading

boris said...

Please note stocks market is unable to move over 4 th try as hard as she could!

So far, though.

Explosion is still coming.
Good Trading

xerxes said...

Did you see this Dear Boris....

April 29 (Bloomberg) -- The family trust of billionaire and former presidential candidate H. Ross Perot was accused in a lawsuit of mismanaging a fund open to outsiders so that it went from $2.5 billion to “less than zero.”

I wonder how much the managers got paid....I could have performed better, for less :-)

boris said...

Deaer Xerxes,
I bet you would have performed
splendidly...

What?

Crazy world is getting crazier.
Thank God I read minimally(:-

GOod Trading

xerxes said...

Explosion in which direction Dear Boris....

It walked like a buy and quacked like a buy and your AP's conflated so it was a buy... One only needs to trust the discipline....

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
I wish, I knew Dear Xerxes.
I would be guessing.

If the fifth On Swissy is poweful
and carries far, everyhing is possible, we may have stopped stock market rise dead at the 4th.
Frankly, I am still guessing.
This is not good.

No point in guessing.

Absolutely none.

I am stadning out.

Good Trading

boris said...

One thing
I can tell you the EUROS are stretched to the limits here.

The unfortunate fact of life with markets though is that

That which is stretched can get even more stretched.

This is all theoretical,

Practical thing would be to sit with numbers I menationed above for stocks and observe what stocks do if and when they get to those points.

There is ZERO usefulness in strategizing, now when all the facts we need are not and will not be there until the announcement itself.

It is in the action that we show what we are not in thinking Dear Xerxes.

We have done the thinking part.
Numbers are known and now it is all action.

and that means each person individually seeing what they see and taking action, or INACTION!!!
Good Trading

boris said...

Well, I took my action.
Took 25 and 30 pips on two positions from the 5th on CHF.

That may be the only actions I do today.

Good Trading Dear Readers

xerxes said...

AUDJPY was supercharged Dear Boris.. Whatever you touch turns to gold :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
It is more like,
Unless I believe I can turn something into gold(:-

I JUST DO NOT TOUCH IT.

I have to wait long times, but it is worth it.

I do not kiss 1000 frogs to find the princ(ess). I find the princess and only then kiss(:-

That is a good analogy , as good as any, how I trade.

Good Trading

boris said...

Market has broken the 4th.
and heading to fifth.

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Many of these things are sitting on their highs despite the huge runs... Seems like there's no profit taking....Will we get a 1000 pip day today?? Or are they luring everybody in before they fleece them all?

xerxes said...

They hit your fifth Dear Boris...You need to make a 6th in the future...

boris said...

There was some profit taking in SWISSY, but you are right I see none in almost anywhere else and even in swissy it was not too much profit taking 30 cents so far.

Good trading

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....Maybe you can add some sound to your blog, like a drum roll :-)

boris said...

There is no sixth(:- Dear Xerxes,

Ifter hourly fifth comes dailies.

Good Trading

boris said...

that is not a bad idea,
But we will need tunes for every security, to differentiate(:-

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Are we going to see some historic movements soon Dear Boris....

I'm not sure what Bernanke can say that would cause a tumult, after all, he already announced 0 interest, QE, buying all the drek he can, bailing out any and everything..

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

This has the making of the last sucker's hurrah. Everyone expects the FED to say miraculous things have happen and it is all blue sky from here....Storm clouds are gathering out in the oceans and getting ready to wash away the hopes of the bulls. All the indices have rounded tops which to me translate to new lows by mid-summer.

Just my thoughts..Good trading dear friends,

Michael

xerxes said...

...This has the making of the last sucker's hurrah....

You can say that again Dear Mike...

boris said...

Dear Mike, While I am with you on the forecast, I am not brave enough to indorse or not indorse the short term move like today and tomorrow.

If it turns out today was the high. So be it.

One thing is clear, we stopped buyind a while ago. ( shame on me 100 points ago)(:-

We did make close to 100 points comring from the bottom and have the ASSET allocation at 21% so, we enjoy the run, but expect the worst.

Always have my feet in all directions.

Good Trading

boris said...

Please everybody see the AP picture on this post. I just posted it.

Good Trading

xerxes said...

An eerie calm

Mike Truong said...

We will probably get a sell the news after the announcement with a rally into the close. tomorrow will be the tell if the rally stick.

Good trading all,

Michael

boris said...

Fifth Did the JOB
For all.
STocks Down Currencies Down
Dollar UP.


YEP! YEP! YEP!

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Well Boris...As I mentioned earlier, nothing new in the Fed statement... They've done it all already... AUDJPY keeps rockin'....Now a bit of a pullback in EURUSD but nothing big yet...

boris said...

Deaer Readers,
Did you see what the FIFTH can do?
Do you know what FIFTH is?

Well, just need to subscribe to
TAILORED SERVICE
Our you would never know what you are missing.

There is no service that does what we do.

I have actually repurchased one USDCHF unit just before the FED announcment , becuase we got close to fifht again and see what happend . I have just pocketed 55 cents in 5 minutes total.

Yes, everything was at FIFTH as Dear Michael and XERXES noted and a little risk of 10pips like mine has produced the great gain of 500% on RISK/REWARD ratio.

Well, you need TAILORED service if you are not already trading like this

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...EURUSD could rally as it didn't decline much and equities are rising....

Mike Truong said...

SP500 need to hit and close around 885 to force the last bears hold out to capitulate. Will we go higher? probably to sucker in those recalcitrant bears turn bulls to trap them one last time. At least that is how i see it.

Good trading dear friends,

Michael

xerxes said...

Sitting on the 4th Dear Boris

xerxes said...

USDJPY has been quietly moving north...

boris said...

Dear Michael
I congratulate, you .
You had a cohones, before announcment to say that all was stretched too far and need to come back.

Well, they did.

I did not endorse the notion, because , frankly I did not wnat to prejudice the action of subscribers.

All could see what was going and act on their own.

Good Trading

boris said...

Ok, the question is why ,
I did/do not want to prejudice the subscriber action.

Here is why?

Things were stretched on the FIFTH!
So, everybody/subscribers knew that.

But once they placed the order, there was no guarantee that the stretched would not stretch more!

That is why a subscriber that was taking that risk of fading the FIFTH, needed to be alert in case they took the position.

We teach that. But we will not prejutice that. That could, would alter the action of the subscriber to the dettriment of THINKING.

Now way. We want all of us to be thinkig and alert and least influenced when placing that order.

Good Trading

boris said...

Ok, Dear Subscribers,

Do we need to explain, what does it mean to let the market come to you.

Here is what it meant today.
4-5 Securities I was monitoring where at 5th IHAP.
Do you think this means market has come to us.

Of COURSE! exactly.

Market came and announced ,,, NO ,,, SHOUTED

HEY... look, HERE...

DO you see ... WE ARE ALL at FIFTH
ARE YOU ASLEEP OR WHAT?

YES, that is how market shoults. It creates confluence of events and thus turns on the warning light.

YOU Dear Subscriber Need to act.

I really think that these kind of emotional days are really educational.

Good Trading

Mike Truong said...

There is a saying that market decline ends on terrible news while rally ends on good news. I think the FED announcement of seeing recession moderating is good news so the rally may be ending....What we need is for a glut of good news to come out instead of tepid news...

Good trading dear friends,

Michael

boris said...

Dear Mike,
Spoken like a pro.
Amen!

Yes that is the way it should work.

Good Trading My Dear Friend

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

When I look at YBR it is still as bullish as ever while WBR is squiggly back and forth. Is this what you mean by using YBR and WBR as road maps for asset allocators? Do you still think that YBR will reach that tippy top that it is predicting or do you think we are getting close to the tired stage?

Good trading dear friend,

Michael

boris said...

Dear Mickeal,
I am pretty sure we are getting to the tired stage and markets are due for pullback.

This kind of move up is historically unique. We need a pull back, there is not doubt about it. In this emotionally charged environment, it is hard to trust anything point by point, but as a trend YBR has done incredible job predicting the slope of recovery. It cannot last in my opinion and somewhere here we must get the pull back, before we resume a more tame move up?
It is not only YBR that is predicting the recovery, so is the SEEFUTURE ( a new copy for next three months to be distributed in Mid/late may) is doing the same.
But this rate cannot possibly last.

So Yes, we should get the correction and it is probably starting within these 3-5 days ( including yesterday).

Good Trading Deaer Michaael
Remember, We need MDS to Cycle. For us to be more confident about the point of entry

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

I did some snooping on the DOW back in early 2001 (January to June) when GWB first became president. The similarities of what happen then and now is pretty remarkable. Both had fairly uneventful first couple of months (in market term) but then had a massive drop in March with a really nice rally all the way to mid-May. I wonder is history is rhyming.

Good trading dear friend,

Michael

boris said...

Dear Micheal,
Certainly, presidentialc cycles have a place in the markets. So, those patterns will, often, repeate, or more like "rhyme" as you stated.

We will, hopefully fine-tune this with one more MDS cycle.

Before that, I am not much averse to shorting market, even though I do not do that myself. I just though that FED day or before was a time to show caution in shorting.

Good Trading Dear Michael

xerxes said...

Good Morning Dear Boris...

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Good Morning

Good Trading

boris said...

Good Morning
Dear Xerxes,
Good Trading My Dear Friend

xerxes said...

They dit the 2nd high hourly already Dear Boris...

boris said...

Rejected at 3rd,
That is the level to watch, because that was also fifth yesterday.

GOod Trading Dear Xerxes

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

Brutish reject the 2nd hourly but I wonder if month end will rally it to fourth hourly second daily.

Good trading dear friend,

Michael

xerxes said...

Rejected 3rd and moved on to the 4th already Dear Boris

Mike Truong said...

Wow look like they want to take out the 4th hourly and 2nd daily on brutish in one shot....wow

Mike Truong said...

xerxes,

Supposedly a lot of people are closing out position today so as not to have to pay the interest differential. That could be the reason for the dumpimg of dollars. Let's see if this reverses tomorrow.

Good trading dear friend,

Michael

Mike Truong said...

Mini not caring too much about the currency ramp so I think it is priced in already...

We'll see

Good Trading dear friends,

Michael

xerxes said...

Dear Mike.....Thank you for the info...I wasn't aware of that...

boris said...

Fourth is also a 100% abc correction.
Of EURO up. So, that is now the level to watch and it is being rejected so far.

If this hour was to close weak, we may have put in the end of ABC correction that started on 4/20

Good Trading Dear Xerxes
We got NEW POST TO CONTINUE at

Beavis said...

Boris, what do you use as attraction points? Or is it proprietary? ie, Fibs or pivots or what?