Thursday, April 30, 2009

The day after







The day after FED, it feels bloody, but easier for BEars. As the man Bernanke, seems to have endless array of tricks to dazzle people. Perhaps though he ran out of those. Who knows. Interest rates are rising, inspite of his purchases of bonds and Market is not really moving too fast anywhere. So, Those that want to short market may feel more comfortable in coming days.

107 comments:

boris said...

xerxes said...
Rejected 3rd and moved on to the 4th already Dear Boris

4/30/2009 2:46 AM


Mike Truong said...
Wow look like they want to take out the 4th hourly and 2nd daily on brutish in one shot....wow

4/30/2009 2:46 AM


Mike Truong said...
xerxes,

Supposedly a lot of people are closing out position today so as not to have to pay the interest differential. That could be the reason for the dumpimg of dollars. Let's see if this reverses tomorrow.

Good trading dear friend,

Michael

4/30/2009 2:54 AM


Mike Truong said...
Mini not caring too much about the currency ramp so I think it is priced in already...

We'll see

Good Trading dear friends,

Michael

4/30/2009 2:56 AM


xerxes said...
Dear Mike.....Thank you for the info...I wasn't aware of that...

4/30/2009 3:00 AM


boris said...
Fourth is also a 100% abc correction.
Of EURO up. So, that is now the level to watch and it is being rejected so far.

If this hour was to close weak, we may have put in the end of ABC correction that started on 4/20

Good Trading Dear Xerxes
We got NEW POST TO CONTINUE at

4/30/2009 3:00 AM

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...You see ABC's while I see C&H's :-)

boris said...

Fourth was a 100% ABC as well,

So far EURO is starting to show weakness

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

That weakness you're seeing Dear Boris is consequent to euro bulls receiving the bill for the case of champagne they ordered for this weekend :-)

Mike Truong said...

Dear Brutish,

Must be a lot of Brutish short looking to cash in and no pay the monthly interest differential? Only a few pips from 4th hourly and 2nd daily.

Incredible,

Good trading dear friend,

Michael

boris said...

Dear Mike,
The Brutish is also experiencing the weekness that EURO is.

Meanwhile it benefited from JPY being lower and thus AUD and BRUTTISH( nor more really?) trading like high yeild currencies, were moving up.
Good Trading Dear Friend Michael

xerxes said...

They're partying hard in Rhineland..

boris said...

EURo tested the ABC again.
Good Trading

boris said...

Unfortunately they are not in ZURICH and they ( SIWSSY's ) know more about future then GERNMANS.

(:-

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

On the daily, and weekly charts of Yen, it look like each time the yen drop we had a rebound correction of about 15 yens. We already have such a rebound recently thus could we be looking at a stronger yen? The only thing that worries me is that we put in a double bottom on the weekly in November and January. If the Yen get stronger this time, could we be looking at 82 yens to the dollar?

Good trading dear friend,

Michael

boris said...

One thing is for sure,
Until the Hourly channels turn around, one can not count on the real weakness in the EUROS.

That is the thing to watch and it would not take too much to do so.
But it needs to do it.

Good Trading

boris said...

As I indicated Yesterday the area of 890 looks very attractive to stock market. Well that is where all the good things are now.

What is that. See it in DOT NET SITE

Good Trading

Ivan said...

This could be only EUROPE's party for today.

boris said...

Dear Ivan,
From Your Lips to Gods Eears.

Good Trading Dear Ivan
I have not much stake, but
techincally speakiing...

Good Trading

Ivan said...

Couple nights ago, I dreamed the future and saw the number for Euro: 1.2560!!! I am serious...

boris said...

Dear Ivan,
Considering How serious of a Man we know you are, We must trust your dreams(:-

Good Trading Dear Ivan

Ivan said...

:-))

xerxes said...

Dear Ivan...Maybe you dreamt about a past nightmare from March when they last printed that figure :-)

xerxes said...

Your short is working good Dear Boris

boris said...

Dear Xerxes, Confluence was too much at 4th and ABC top.
So, far, you and are correct. It is working.

If not there is stop there to take care of when I am wrong.
(:-
Good Trading.

Ivan said...

Dear Boris, NO. It was the future.

boris said...

Dear Iivan,
I bleive you, it is Dear Xerxes,
TThat is having doubts(:-

Good Trading

John said...

Boris,

Good morning

thanx

old john

boris said...

Dear john,
Good Morning To you
My Dear Friend

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Did you see the Tasuki on gold..classic formation..rare they say

Ivan said...

Dear xerxes, what could be the target for gold in that formation? Thanks

Mike Truong said...

dear boris,

now that brutish is done partying, do you think we have seen the high (1.4950) for awhile?

Good trading dear friend,

Michael

boris said...

Dear Mike,
We are either ready to see 1.47 today or even 1.4630.

Entirely likely

boris said...

DID YOU SEE THAT?

8 8 8 high on EMINI
6 6 6 low in March 6
2 2 2 difference.

Hallelujah!

boris said...

I am extremely proud of our confluence system.
We got the EURO at the absolute high today as it was attempting to hurdle the ABC correction 100% and the FOURTH combo(CONFLUENCE)

Of course we had other indications from SWISSy and GBP.

So, here! another, in my opinion, brilliant move that came SIMPLY( oh this word is complicated) looking at confluence of AP/FIBO and other things if one wants to.

To me the AP/FIBO and confirmations from other currencies sealeld it.

No, this is not incredible, it just looks like it!

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Ivan...It is a continuation pattern...it doesn't suggest a projection...In this case it dived over 1% ... I can't say what will happen now ...

boris said...

From FOURTH TO FOURTH

So, far, the USDCHF and EIRP jave run from 3rd ILAP to 4th IHAP and 4th IHAP to 4th ILAP( almost).

Pretty amazing.
So, wer have resistance for their runs at this time.

EMINI has also come off from 888

and has now sprung from support at First IHAP and Hourly Up ( Upper) channel!

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Should we be shorting the dollar now Dear Boris? USDCAD looks ripe to short....

boris said...

We should be taking some/all profits for short term traders on Dollar.

Shorting it, I am not ready to do that at this time, even though it could have been tempting few minutes ago when SWISSy hit 1.142X

Good Tradng

Mike Truong said...

xerxes,

huh? I thought we are looking for a stronger dollar going forward. Why would you short usdcad now?

Good trading dear friend.

Michael

boris said...

Dear Michael,
You know Dear Xerxes, has a very NEAR SIGHTED approach.

I would have swear in the past he was an investor, but he sure turned himself into trader(:-

Congrats Dear Xerxes.
I know where I failed. I try to convert everybody to investor.

All I am succesful at is getting people interested in "MAKING FAST MONEY"

I am begining to realise , I may need to change approach to be more convincing that Investor is the way to go.

But who could blame me or subscribers.

With the world changing as fast as it ever has, everybody is inflicted with trader SYNDROME

(:-

Good Trading
Dear Michael

xerxes said...

Dear Mike....I was just looking at an immediate trade...I'm still with you and Boris on the stronger dollar. I was watching the DPO (7) and the USDCAD never exited its down channel and looks like it could continue back down...Because of the dollar's tone today, I thought I should ask Boris what he thought, and if I understood him correctly, he thinks I should spend money more wisely :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
I will dring to that.
Dear Xerxes.

As of now there is no sigh that trend is changing in the other direction.

Of course, we have just , this morning , turned the hourle channels down AND ,
BELIVE OR NOT,

The Daily Channel is still looking lower for EURO.

So, how could I recommend selling Dollar Dear Xerxes.
I cannot, because, frankly, I care more about your money than money, for, once you have no money you will stop playing and being a productive member of the club of ANTISOPITALISTS.

So, for that reason , and name and presitige of this CLUB of ANTISOPITALISTS , we must keep you doing well, which at the end seems to be good for you too(:-

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

Beavis said...

The f*cking crooks are gaming the market. I'm a professional trader and I'm so f*cking sick of this mess I want to vomit. We need to send all of Wall Street to jail.

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....I do wear corrective lenses :-)

The problem Dear Boris is ZIRP ...

You like dividends but I don't...In a depression most will cut or drop the stream and the equity will tank. I know many investors who thought nirvana comes from dividends...And I'm not smart enough to select the winners...

Bonds are better...I can figure out the capitol structure...But who trusts the financial? Besides when bonds default they don't send coupons and then they offer shit deals to cash you out...Better to buy defaulted bonds if you have patience...

So all that's left is speculation. I decide how much, and when, to deploy capital...A great investor performance would be 10-15% per year...Anybody following your order to short EURUSD today made 1.5% today/now...And USDCAD just dropped 1/2% Dear Boris :-)

boris said...

Dear Beavis,
WE can all get angry, which we , sometimes are, or we can get even.

So, you have come to right place Dear Beavis.

By the way is ButHead with you(:-

Welcome Dear Beavis, you are with friends now and for as long as you desire.

Welcome home

Good Trading

Mike Truong said...

Dear Beavis,

Learn to play their games. If they want to take the market up, go with them. Too much egoists out there trying to front run markets and getting kill by dumb money. Remember as traders we can't take dumb money forever or no more dumb money will enter the market. That seems to be the strategy of the sopitalists.

Good trading dear friend.

Michael

Beavis said...

lol. If I am home does that mean you are going to feed and clothe me in the manner which I am accustomed?

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
But Investor , does not mean INVESTING in stocks, even though I like the DIVIDEND play as the Stocks investment part.

Who said you can not invest ( take a longer view) in currencies(:-?

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

And Yes, there was something really good that Dear Keynes left us with ( I do not mean his Keynesian BS, which he is wrongly "BLAMED FOR").

He was a best investor in depression.

Why?

He seemd to have bought bumch of utility stocks ( dividend anyone?) and kept them til 1945.

For that stretch of 15 years when the world was losing shirt and lives, he created a record of 17% A year gains. By never touching those stocks.

WOW!

GOod Trading

boris said...

Dear Beavis,
We give what we can and have. It may not fit your standards of TAKING, but we , nevertheless, continue giving.

My Deaer Friend. Beavis, we are Ok. For you and if you can not get all from us, the world is big. Please continue searching and inform us as well, as we would like to TAKE, sometimes too(:-

Welcome again Deaer BEAVIS.

Beavis said...

I wouldn't get too enthused about such an investment thesis in utilities today. These companies are bubbles fueled by deregulation and substantial debt loads. Keynes would lose his ass in utilities today. At least American utilities.

boris said...

Actually,

Dear Xerxes, Subscribers,
I need to correct myself. EURO is in a POSITIVY daily Channel until and unless it breaks down below 1.3150!!!

I need to correct this.

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Yes Dear Boris....But FX trading then was nothing compared to modern times....He wouldn't settle for 17% if he had your skills :-)

And that's why I chose fx to trade rather then some stock...There is no balance sheet, no income statement, no criminals lying on CNBC just baby ben and tricky triche, the dynamic duo but really just one trick ponies...

boris said...

Dear Beavis,
Utilities, are not my buy list today. I have only included one or two on my possible purchase list.

FPL ( Florida Power Light) and
EXCelon ( Nuclear one).

But at certain price they will be. And that is when utilities print 230 area on the $util(^util) index

But the real utilities substintues today are the KMP, EPD and those guys connected with Pipeline Transportation ( cheapr the OIL/GAS) get more of it is consumed and flown via these pipelines.

It is getting cheaper to take shower or make the home cooked mill Dear Beavis.

GOod Trading and Thanks for your niticably informed insight ( I mean that).

Good Trading

waldo said...

Look at this and the market likes it. LOL. waldo. Who's side is Congress on? ...

- Public anger about credit card companies is extremely high. The February credit card default report showed the highest default level in 20 years. Walter Todd, a portfolio manager at Greenwood Capital Associates, said: "There is a continued deterioration. Trends in credit cards will get worse before they start getting better."

- Not much has really changed in Washington. There is a House vote scheduled today for the Credit Cardholders' Bill of Rights. These are supposed to be measures to protect consumers from the mafia style gouging that is coming from credit card companies.

(Banking officials have resisted change, warning that it would have the unintended consequence of forcing them to restrict lending or raise rates and fees because it would be more expensive to do business. What did that threat mean? ... that they might end up charging a 40% interest rate instead of a 28% to 30% rate?)

In the true spirit of putting lobbyist and big money first, the bill is expected to pass today ... BUT NOT BECOME LAW UNTIL 1 YEAR AND 2 MONTHS FROM NOW. I guess I am having trouble remembering ... who where our politicians supposed to represent??

- Well, there must be a good reason for the interest rate gouging by credit card companies, maybe like: "the credit card companies are losing money"?

Let's see ... yesterday, VISA announced its recent quarterly income. Here's the news announcement: "Visa Inc.'s (V) fiscal second-quarter net income surged 71% amid a prior-year litigation provision as results topped analysts' expectations despite falling consumer spending. Visa reaffirmed estimates that earnings per share will increase at least 20 percent through 2010."

- Today's news also included: "The number of people continuing to draw unemployment benefits jumped to 6.3 million, the highest on record dating back to 1967 and steeper than economists expected.

All of this is not good for an economy that is desperately trying to initiate a recovery. The Commerce Department just reported that gross domestic product decreased at a 6.1% annual rate in the first quarter ... GDP has now fallen in three consecutive quarters. That hasn't happened in 34 years. Credit card company policies are hurting the consumer while he is already down ... where's the reform help from Congress?

Other than the fact that I find all of this very disturbing, what does this have to do with the stock market? The new Bull Market everyone is hoping for won't happen until consumers can start spending again ... not spending their money on higher interest payments, but on goods and services that will help companies grow and hire more people.

*** Feel free to share this page with others by using the "Send this Page to a Friend" link below.

boris said...

Dear Waldo,
Thanks for the post.

Good Trading Dear Friend

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

Must be a lot of people thinking like xerxes that dollars need to go down. They are gunning brutish and euro again. hmmm

Good trading dear friend,

Michael

waldo said...

Who in the name of GOD is buying this market, with all the bad news and the market just ignors it. Just like the good old days of 1999 and 2000. What a bunch of crap. waldo.

Mike Truong said...

end of the month rally waldo. Gotta look good for those monthly statements. Also they want consecutive positive monthly close...Don't fight them. Bears time will come but i suspect not until next week.

Good trading dear friend,

Michael

boris said...

Dear Michael,
It seems like the Carry trade is working miracle again.

Look at the thing that is driving it all.

It is called JPY.

See that at FOURTH and almost 3 pt( 3%) loss in three days?

That will do it, if you can borrow at 0%

Good Trading

John said...

Waldo,

Everytime I read something like that, I calm myself by thinking of George Carlin. In fact, yesterday I played the short clip that Boris has on his site.

old john

boris said...

Stock market maybe ready to be shorted, with a coffe money stop.

No more than that or smallest position you can master

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear John,
Dear Waldo,
I second What Jhon sais.

Too bad this man is not with us anymore

Good Trading

waldo said...

Yes, I loved to watch his hbo performances because he told it like it was. wlado.

boris said...

Please note
We have shown on the bigpicture, how QQQQ will brobably reach this area around 35 to hit the big resistance. Well, we are almost there.

Take look at that picture again
Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Are specs borrowing yen to buy francs as well?

Now there was another brilliant trade of yours that I wish I had followed :-)

waldo said...

Hope it plays out, I bought a little faz, srs, and sds. Your opinion Boris, can these positions be held for more than a day. I see chart patterns measuring the spx to at least 820 and some as low as 770. waldo.

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

Yen is close to fibo50 that I took from aug 08 to jan 09. Strange that number is close to your 5th hourly...hmmm

Good trading dear friend...

Michael

boris said...

Dear Waldo,
My Really Dear Friend.
You know I would love to hold your hand and squeeze it as hard as I can.

Alas, No guarantees of gain or loss in these markets. Just keep breakeven stops if you just shorted and let us prey together My Dear Friend.


Remember you are not playing to win
That is just a byproduct of what you play for


YOU PLAY NOT TO LOSE
YOU PLAY NOT TO LOSE
YOU PLAY NOT TO LOSE

I know youknow that, but I just reminded you.

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear michael
Thanks Dear Friend
Good Trading

boris said...

If you took any of the short trades.

Please No more than $10 dollar loss stop. Please, I aske you very much.

Breakeven is even better.

Remember there is always next BUS

DO NOT LOSE MONEY

GOod Trading

boris said...

Keep your stops in place and at Breakeven , UNDE NO CIRCUMSTANCES you are to give market back the gains you now have

Good Trading

boris said...

You now have equivalent of 3-4 SPX points.

If you give this back
Never talk to me again.

Stop at breakeven and that is it
Not moving from there no matter what.

If you took more than you liked ,
take profit on some and let the rest ride.

Please do not short here, if you missed it.

Good Trading

boris said...

END then...
There Was
A Quiet!

Good Trading

lagscrew said...

bought a big slug of FAZ

boris said...

Dear Lag,
Good Luck,
My Dear Friend

boris said...

Ok, we announced the shorting opportunity when EMINI was around 883+,
Now you should have 5-6 point SPX equivalent of gains.

I know and you know that you can not lose here, just concentrate on keeping the trailing stop at Breakeven or better.

that should be a siple task.

Good Trading

boris said...

Do we remeber this post from today?

boris said...
DID YOU SEE THAT?

8 8 8 high on EMINI
6 6 6 low in March 6
2 2 2 difference.

Hallelujah!

4/30/2009 9:14 AM

boris said...

I never go below 20% investment as you know.

So, I sold 1%(:- of my 21% core Stock holdings and I protected 10% of the rest.

ENJOY, Good Trading

boris said...

Are you all enjoying this short.
Let me know(:-


P L E A S E!

Good Trading

boris said...

Ok, 13 SPX points and counting.
Good Trading
Dear Friends

waldo said...

Do you suppose that reality finally set in when chrysler just filed for bankruptcy and there ceo is stepping down. waldo.

boris said...

Dear Waldo,
Reality always sets in.

The trick is to wait for it(:-
My Dear Friend From Great OHOI.

Good That you are here today.
Inspires all of us

Good Trading

waldo said...

About time for the fed thru goldmansachs to ride to the rescue, the market is looking a little weak here. waldo.

waldo said...

raining here today so no outside work. I needed a day off anyway. waldo

boris said...

Dear Wadlo,
They need buyers,
And I suppose they do not have them. Because once they buy they need to unload that onto somebodie(s) and those somebodie(s) became rare lately. That is why it took them 20 days to distribute.

Boy that was not easy ha!

Good Trading

boris said...

15 SPX points and enjoy.

Good Trading Dear Shorts

boris said...

Dear Waldo,
Your God Loves, because you are good man.

So, he rained today to let you go home and make some SHORTS(:-

Good Trading My Dear Friend

boris said...

Looks like the BRUTISH and AUSTRALIAN are breaking as they see the JPY break.

Dear Ford Where are you?

Good Trading

lagscrew said...

sold 1/3 8.25 faz

boris said...

Dear Lag,
Enjoy
GOod Trading My Dear Friend

John said...

Waldo,

Morgan Stanley sold almost 30 million shares of SPY after the market closed yesterday. 3 big blocks of 9,8 and a little of 9 millions shares each. sold at 1640 hrs.

old john

boris said...

Dear John, Thanks for the info
Good Trading My Dear Friend

boris said...

Dear Subscriber,
Please note.

As bad as market declined, we still do not see the hourly channel convincingly come down.

For that market needs to make new lows of the day.
Thee is never time to rest easy.

Watch the markets and keep the stops in. Real Stops now!

And now hesitation. Market backs up to breakevn you are out!

Good Trading

waldo said...

Sold my short funds a little while ago, thank you Boris. It is just crazy for such a strong bear market rally from off the march 6 bottom. According to elliot wave this is a primary B wave up to the 1050 to 1100 area but may get a good pullback before they suck more in on the long side then the wicked primary wave C down to new lows. Just my 2 cents worth. waldo.

waldo said...

They are sneaky john selling in after hours so it won't be detected by the 9:30 to 4pm crowd. I hate this manipulation by the big money players. waldo.

boris said...

Dear Waldo,
ENJOY My Dear Friend.
I like to hear when you win.
It just sounds so much better.

Good Trading Dear Freind Waldo

boris said...

Ok , keep the shorts ROLLING.
GOod trading

waldo said...

Must go, everyone have a good evening. waldo.

boris said...

Dear Wadlo,
Thanks for being with us.
All the best My Dear Friend

Mike Truong said...

Last half hour pump to end the month on a good note?

Good trading dear friends,

Michael

boris said...

Dear Michael,
Thanks for your perls of wisdom.
Today. ENJOY Dear Friend

boris said...

Dear Subscriber,
If you are short on a speculative bases, please collect enough profits to feel comfortable taking the rest of the position HOME.

Those with no overnight tollerance, please take the profits and enjoy your evening/day.

Those that are asset allocators, should do not much, but follow what I have done today.

Good Trading

boris said...

Currencies have stopped in the middle of things, with a possibility to push into the positive or negative directory with a relatively small move.

They want to make this one interesting I guess.

Good Trading

Mike Truong said...

For all the work that bulls did, we are going to close with about 550 pts gain on the DOW for April and 80 points for the SP. Lots of running in place in between.

Good trading dear friends,

Michael

John said...

Boris,

thanx

old john

lagscrew said...

out 2/3 of faz sold another 1/3 at the bell 8.33 vs 7.73

Beavis said...

Boris, what do you use as attraction points? Or is it proprietary? ie, Fibs or pivots or what?

boris said...

Dear Beavis,
Attraction Points Our Proprietery staff.

It is not Pivots, which has been known for over 30 years.

GOod Trading Dear Beavis

boris said...

Dear Michael
Deaer John
Dear Lag,

Tjanks for you comments

Good Trading Dear FRiends

lagscrew said...

something to think about bulls---are we really in that good a shape to go higher???

http://garyscommonsense.blogspot.com/


Im going on vacation for 8 days---good luck all ( I will keep some shorts)

boris said...

Dear Lug, Thank you
And have nice vacation.

Good Trading.

PS. It seems like my numbers 666 and 888 are getting rounds(:-

Good Trading