Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Could Go either way, but Upside could be limited







Market, is moving lower early morning , considering anticipated , short term Dollar Decline, we could be in for early weakness and later strength in the markets.

65 comments:

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Just as you mentioned yesterday, strong buck in the wee hours...

xerxes said...

DAX down, euro down, just like the textbooks say...approaching first HLAP

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....Are we looking at the multi-boned H&S on the 15 minute playing out?

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...USDCHF bulls reached the ramparts and were stopped cold...

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...They chanted...Remember the gold franc and down with the yanks :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
You are right the Second IHAP has stopped the USDCHF cold at around 1.1720 and that may be it for today, We shall see.

Stocks market looks down indeed, not sure if it is going too far though. Perahps after early open weakness market takes up again.

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...We hit the underbelly of the EURUSD rising 15 minute channel then crash and burn :-)

boris said...

DAX down, euro down, just like the textbooks say...approaching first HLAP
Dear Xerxes,
there is no such beast at HLAP, did you mean DLAP here?

Daily Low Attraction Point( DLAP)

Good T rading My Dear Friend

xerxes said...

I meant first hourly low AP...We almost hit 2nd hourly low.../Those were 1.28xx numbers if I copied them correctly...

xerxes said...

Well, Dear Boris, seems like the DAX is leading EURUSD by the nose :-)

xerxes said...

We recoiled from underside of prior broken uptrend...Let's see what Mr. DAX has planned now..

boris said...

OK,
SO that is an ILAP ( HOURLY).

Good Trading Dear Xerxes, and yes that is what happens most of th time currency and stocks markets are tied together.

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...If you use I for intraday/hourly then what is the nomenclature for the 15 minute AP's?

boris said...

Dear Xerxes, 5 minute APs are not in action until about 10 ET.
Nomenclature is the same IAP, but I usually mention if it is hourly(60) or 5 minute one.

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

Okay Dear Boris....Meanwhile DAX losing altitude...Will EURUSD bears smash through 1.2887?

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
I am more inclined to watach the SWISSY, and it is holding up better.
As I suspected for a long time. Later on the realationship will change, but for now , I prefer to watch SWISSY

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...I try and keep an eye on Gold and the Franc but my equity is tied up in EURUSD so I have all screens on that cross. My apologies :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes, Fine,
No problem,
I was just indicating that if SWISSY is holding and brant of decline is coming from EURO, that for me has a different connotation than the situation where Dollar is stronger across the board

GOod Trading Dear Xerxes

Ivan said...

Dear Xerxes,
what is the situation with tourism in Spain (Maxxxx) this year? Could tourism save Croatia this year? Or we are going to bankrupt?

xerxes said...

Dear Ivan...I don't follow tourist trade much beyond what friends/acquaintances tell me...The scuttlebutt is that occupancy in hotels is down to mid 80's% and dropping...Drops in all segments, restaurants, etc...The way I see it is that private sector middle class and poor are getting pummeled while government sector says, "crisis?...what crisis?..." :-)

xerxes said...

Dear Ivan....The government offices are brimming with well-dressed functionaries and plenty of hot babes, often times, with more employees then "clientele". They have several different types of police and they're all over the place, stopping vehicles, checking this that and the other while writing tickets as fast as they can...Need to signal when changing lanes or plan on a 45 minute delay...I could go on and on :-)

Ivan said...

Dear xerxes, the same (and worse) is here. I am really afraid what will happen at the and of this year and in coming years.

boris said...

Well, Dear Subscribers, Xerxes, Ivan,

As I see it now, REpublicans had at least some of the PITALISM out SOPITALISM, but Decmocrats are almost all SO of the SOPITALISM.

God help us. These guys/girsl bcome worse every year, so that change will look to attractive, while the change that comes will only be for worse.

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Feels like we're in the hands of a juggler bouncing from first low to first high IAP's

xerxes said...

Screw-up on the memo...DAX up, Euro down...They need a new order reader Dear Boris :-)

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Looks like a doji star on the hourly just formed...

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....Have I been talking to myself most of the day? ;-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
there is nothing wrong with reporting, it helps others see what you see.

That is good.

YOu are not talking to yourself.

YOu are toalkingto tousands of people visiting this blog.

Thank you Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

Anyways, Dear Boris...it was a bogus evening star :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
YOu have seen , at least, for last 30 minutes the Market moved lower as the EURO and dSWISSY moved higher.

YOu see, the rules are made to be broken.

Good Trading Dear Xerxe s

xerxes said...

Yes, Dear Boris....But it seems like euro is engaged in a sisyphean task :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes, Yes
For now

Good Trading

xerxes said...

R U still expecting the euro to surge in an hour or so, Dear Boris?

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Signs are Ok for that, but , on the SWISSY bases, we need to go below 1.1644 befor I would say. That is it , it is going to happen.
Good Trading

boris said...

NO doubt that our best call this couple weeks has been the one on GBP, to screw it at 1.51 or so.
We had excellent calls on stocks , all within the almost zero risk trades.
OUr SWISSY call still may prove OK, but need next three days to see it.

So, EXCELENCE continues, without the drop of a doubt.

Good Trading

boris said...

As long as market is under 845 or so, it remains under pressure.

Good Trading

John said...

Boris,

Good morning, probably going to sell my small bit of SDS this morning


old john

boris said...

Well,
Like a SWISS Watch
SWISSY break 1.1644 now the level to watch 1.1685. Ss long as SWISSY stays below that we are fine

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...How do they jerk the exchange rate like they do? I missed that ride...

boris said...

Dear John,
COngrats, and good trading to you my Dear Friend
Yes good for you

waldo said...

John, sent you an email of a good education on chart setups. waldo.

John said...

Waldo,

thank you

old john

xerxes said...

How high does she go Dear Boris?

Ivan said...

Boris, the same question from me!
Sell CHF now or ???

boris said...

Dear Xerxes, you have the APs just as I do.

Beyond that 1.1555 is a reall possibility on SWISSY.

ON EURO 1.31 could be possibility

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....there are many AP's in a 40 pip range...The euro is stuck at the big window on the hourly from the 20th...It is obviously clear that the trend is up for now but it may need to rejuvenate itself to overcome your AP's and the window, or so it seems to me..

boris said...

Dear Xerxes, Yes
But I do not see the trend up stopping, at least, until tomorrow.

SO, just trail the stop if you are in. That is all anybody ca do.

Good Trading Dear Xerxes
I do not think this move up in EUro will be over without a day that goes to fifth or higher in hourly AP.

boris said...

The emini
chf are at the channel support points, which suggests that we may get the stocks go higher here and so would EURO and CHF.
But this support must hold

Good Trding

xerxes said...

Well Dear Boris, we got close to the 5th hourly today...Apparently that's not good enough for you :-)
I'm absolutely in awe Dear Boris that you anticipated the EURUSD rally to the hour...just amazing...
And although I heard you loud and clear I just didn't believe it as my reading of the tea leaves didn't suggest any great bullish move in EURUSD...I guess I got a long way to go before they start talking about the 'the legendary currency trader called xerxes'...I actually wanted to short the euro but your words prevented me...I guess I can go long manana when I wake up, if it hasn't run more as 5 hourlies should be a 100 pips or more....

boris said...

Dear Xerxes.
I am glad you admit that it is hard to play these markets. I could have told you so(:-

That makes two of us in these markets, but I suggested already yesterday turnaround was in place, simply because I anticipated months in advance that EURO must have some rally into 23-24 arpil.

How many times did i say that.

So, todyas action/prediction is nothing. The thing that makes it possible is the belief, almost relgious one that I can read the patterns up front and then expect them to happen when i expect them.

Without that I would have been in your position. Except that I told all of these things endless times.
Right.

It is just you are not as permieted with the strength of faith in my pattern readings as I am.

That is ok, perhaps you will develop yours or listen to what I say. Either way, you can get close.

I am not perfect, but have set of convictions that made me hold SWISSY longs over four days of adversity and collected profits on some, only few short term positions left.

It will come Dear Xerxes
It will
Just a matter of time

I am not ( much ) younger than you ( if at all), so do not think it is impossible

Good Trading

Dear Friend Xerxes

xerxes said...

,,,,Without that I would have been in your position. Except that I told all of these things endless times.
Right.,,,

Yes, Dear Boris...I'm kicking myself for not following orders :-)

boris said...

Well, our timing of Stock Market bounce was absolutley on spot.
We got the market up right after my commets that support channel was ready to relaunch this market.

Good Trading

xerxes said...

How much higher for S&P Dear Boris?

boris said...

Low 860 area seems to be natural as we have second third daily(DHAP) there as well as some trend lines.
If over come later, or tomorrow the resistance stands at 877
Good Trading

jimww said...

Dear boris that is what I have been saying ,....you are tuned in ....use all your tools and disipline go make a small killing.

John said...

Boris,

Just back from house hunting. I saw the close proximity of 2nd and 3rd- I will see i f that holds, may buy SDS again

old john

boris said...

Dear Jim,
YOU are kind and somewhat correct,
Still, I am smart and too cautious.

So, we shall see.
IT can not be too bad! thank GOD(:-
GOod Trading Dear Friend JIm

boris said...

Dear JOhn,

Welcome back.

HOw are you Dear Friend

John said...

Boris,

doing great but have duties now. very busy now- long story but the wife and i are helping a friend who has young children ( one autistic ) and who has a father,82, who just had heart surgery. her husband is a salesman and we are giving her a hand.

old john

John said...

Boris,

I did buy small amount of SDS- 3rd time in 3 days. thanx

old john

CONFLUENCE

lagscrew said...

In faz again avg of 9.06

boris said...

Dear John,
Keep busy,
GOod For you and good for those helped.

Dear Friend ENJOY
Good Trading

John said...

CONFLUENCE

boris said...

Actually, we had few nice calls today.

1) before open we assumed that we may have lower opening and higher move, correct
2) in midday we had a support on hourly channels and market rallied
correct
3) we had a low 860 as resistance and market turned down fromt there
correct
4) we though EUROS will rally
correct

5) love you all

GOod Trading

xerxes said...

,,,,Low 860 area seems to be natural,,,,

Dear Boris...the high was 861.67....

Do you know the Lotto numbers for Friday :-)