Monday, March 23, 2009

No Double Hump(bottom) For Market?





788.44 792.44 799.00 806.84 emini
779.56 775.56 769.00 761.00

29.90 30.03 30.24 30.50 qqqq
29.61 29.48 29.27 29.01

791.66 795.08 800.69 807.39 spx
784.06 780.64 775.04 768.20

412.71 413.93 415.94 418.33 rut
410.01 408.79 406.79 404.35

59 comments:

gorli said...

good morning boris. i cannot open the recently sent "big picture" file. any suggestions?
thanks,
gorli

TwinGems said...

Good morning Boris,
the futures are up substantially today.. If we hit the 2nd Daily High APS... which will correspond very closely to the Fifth hourly APS.. is that a sell signal? It is currently in the 3rd hourly APS... would you go long at the open looking for a confluence or do nothing?

boris said...

Dear TwinGems,
It is veri likely to be, at least, a short term reversal. We only know retrospecitvely if the signal was GOOD or BAD. There fore if/when placing the order one must know more about the exact events at that time. Is market doing reversal, are short term moemntum indicators showing the turn. One needs now a short term system of some kind, to find how scuccesful this trade maybe. In general though , this place is likely a good sell prospect. Must make sure you have s shor term system that supplements the facts. It shows you if you can take the short and it also must show you where the exit stop is.

Of example, Let us say I use the MAMCD and it shows me divergence , that is great. Now let us say that I watch the candle pattern reversal and that happens. That is great. Now I am ready. So, what is next place the short upon CANDLE reversal and place the stop above the high of this reverse CANDLE.

It may work like a charm and it may take you out of the stop, then you may want to watch if this was just to ""take you out" move and reshort if another reversal CANDLE comes right after that.

These are all short term tactics and I can not describe all of them here.

You must have one of these that you use and stick with it very closely.

I hope this is clear Dear TwinGems

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear Gorli,

It is just a ZIPPed file.

Do you have unzip program. Is not your email capable of unzipping it?
You just say open and it should unzip it for you.

If that does not work, send the file to your AOL emailer and I am sure it will be able to unzip it

Good trading Dear GORLI

Let me know
Please

boris said...

Dear Carol,
Dear Mike,

It should be made clear that while we may engage in short term trades for fun. We are not short term traders.

We are asset allocators and we state how much of the assets are where. Lately we have only been changing the amount in the stock market leaving all esle the same( GOLD OIL bonds etc).


So, for us everything is a BUY and SELL only happens becuase we want to get out of something and get tinto something ( these things are

CASH , GOLD , OIL, STOCKS, BOND)
.

Good Trading
Dear Mike and Careal and all subscraibers

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Good morning.
Good living:)

Bert

John said...

Boris,

Good morning

old john

xerxes said...

Good Afternoon Dear Boris

boris said...

Dear Wanderer
Dear John
Dear Xerxes

All Very Dear Friends
Good Trading to you all

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Did a bit of reading this WE...Came across an indicator called R-Squared...Do you know somewhere on the net that I can find it in association with a momentum-based indicator...I don't know how to make my own calculations..

Mike Truong said...

good morning boris,

Thank you for including me in your thoughts in the comments. Like I said in my email to you, I view this quarterly subscription as a learning period to understanding your methodologies and ways of thinking. Hopefully when we come close to the end of this learning period I will be able to not be so newbee-ish. Thanks for the constant teachings.

PS. When you have time, could you send me a copy of the attractionpoint.txt file so that I can continue to study? Thanks

Mike

boris said...

Dear Mike,

Thanks

And Good Traidng My Dear Friend

xerxes said...

At this moment, the 'Extreme Point' for shorting Euro using DI next hour is 1.3573...If it works the Asian window should be shut tight

boris said...

Dear Xerxes, Have not used R2d, but wagely reminds me the of taking the pivot points and deviding it by square root of 2(1.41 or somthing) and some other numbers. I will look up for you. If this is something different.

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

Thank You Dear Boris...I'm wondering if I should pay some service to provide me with a broad array of indicators on demand...The free stuff is pretty 'good' but there is good, gooder and goodest :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Most of software has free indidcators you need.

Did you try metatrader?

It has plenty.

All I can say is that more indictors you have more chances of being confused.

You have a pretty god understanding of the CANDLE patterns. Ad to it MACD and for my money, You need nothing else.

But many software packages , some of them free, have indicators.

fxcm.com will give all indicators you want/need and it is free.

It is up to you, I find myself not using anything but candle patterns and ROC( rate of change), which are the most basic of anything you can ask for.

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

boris said...

Market found initial encounter with the fourth Hourly IHAP lethal and reversed over 8 points since then.

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Thank you Dear Boris....Those services you mentioned seem to have fewer free indicators then forexmarkets or deutsche bank... stockcharts.com has many good things but their free interface blows... You are probably correct in viewing simplicity as the best but I'm not seasoned enough to have arrived at that conclusion yet so I seek complication :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
So, you see, you already know more than I do on that subject

Correct all those sources have a lot of free indicators.

It is my firm belief that most of indicators show the same information but in a different geometry. Whatever view one finds the most EYE catching ( sences are important) is the one that works best.


By all means experement and see what seems to be most "perceptive" for you.

I can not disagree on that subject. Individual expereice is what counts. We all "SEE" different way

Good Trading

xerxes said...

They shut the window...Short Euro...
BTW Dear Boris...That trade was compliments of and with great gratitude to Mr. Wilder...Forgot to mention, stop-loss at 1.3636

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
The point of selling around 137 was very simple FIBO at 1.38xx and I am sure any/all indicators whould have shown the same information Euro Needs to be sold around that top. Remember We talked about bumps, another one is just coming. But Yes DI is another very nice trend exaushtion indictor, I have devleoped my own fractal trend indicator ( frankly not use it much).


Main thing is the April 1-8 presenst the area of Higher Dollar and it is no brainer that we have Currencies to do down when Stocks "should go down" , courtesy MDS , of course.

Thanks Dear Xerxes.

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....I'm using the Rule of Multiple Technical Techniques as the basis for organizing trades... I separate trending indicators from oscillators...The more tools that identify early movement from meandering to trending markets and vice-versa, the better trades I can make..It increases confidence tremendously and makes trading fun, not just a crass, money-grubbing exercise

xerxes said...

You had an AP close to the recent high of EURUSD....The indicators reversed when they saw you holding up that AP :-) Seems we have some resistance at the 65MAE on the hourly now...I like Wilder's stuff... Aroon looks good as well

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
I agree, It is not a bad Idea to use TREDNING INDICATOR like DI,

I found frankly that DI is just another view of what exahuastion means though. That is why I am able to read trend exhaustion from ROC just as well. I realise it takes time to be able to do these in way that is automatic and I can not explain , any more, why am I able to do it, but

All I say that in time, you will learn that trending versus oscillator indicators are not as different as you think, but I will admint

at certain stage they seem to be an USEFUL artifact for traders develoopment.


So, Yes, Just do not use too much of everything. It is confusting bnelieve me.

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Now, Dear Boris, I wish I could create my own indicator :-) Instead of trying to remember the nuances of somebody else's creation :-)

boris said...

Ok, we are approaching to the are, where the fifth of the Hourly and second and thrid daily live.

That is a powerful combination, please look it up. Market has to respect that , with at least a good temporary pull back.

Good Trading

boris said...

Gold is looking to me like a suicidal maniac, looking for a better place on the bridge to jump from!!!

It better make move up soon or it is going down hard. It could save itself by jumping bove recent highs. Wathc this guy/girl.

Good Trading

boris said...

Are you having Mariah kind of day?

Then please proceed with this

My ALL

Good Trading

boris said...

Please note that the market has stalled exactly where you and I told it.

COngrats to us(:-

Good Trading

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

Sorry to bring this up again but when you have time can you send me a copy of the AttractionPointUsage.txt file. I have not gotten it in the original emails you sent me when I signed up. Thank you and good trading,

Michael

miketruo@yahoo.com

boris said...

Dear Mike,
Sorry, It looks like I had your email misspelled in my list

good Trading

Please see new email in your mailbox. Dear Mike

boris said...

Market is hitting the the fifth

Good Trading

boris said...

As I was suggesting the turn dates 18 from cyles and 21 from WBR, may have conspired for the double topo at this stage, which could actually , even make a bit of a higher high tomorrow ( probability exists) before going down.

We are in the 7 Day of the signal, just to remind you

Good Trading

boris said...

Ok,
I tell you why I am having the Mariah, kind of day.

Besides Her bing one dynamite singer, I am crazey about the GUITAR behind the music. Playing guitar is one of few pleasures I find time for these days and and melody and guitar in this song are so captivating that It is like one is launched into another world. where everything is absolutely perfect. Well, we do know it is not, but for the moments it feels real.

Thanks for listenning(:-

Good Trading

John said...

Bris,

You never mentioned the guitar before as I remember

old john

boris said...

Dear John,Guitar is one the most amazing instruments. It requires a lot more coordination than many other instruments. When one is totally in it. Every fingure is doing something that is totally different from others and yet, they all come together to make some of the most outlandish sounds.

I have never gone to school of music, but killed myself ( in basement for hours with the old piano at my Grandma's home) and learned to play many Russian folk songs. When growing up as phisicist I needed something more portable ( IN USSR they did not have keyboards at that time(:- ). So, I rededicated myself to guitar to same myself from the hardest questions mankind can as from the nature. Of course having no answers ( still do not), I could only heal my ego with playing guitar and forget the QUARKS.

Trading Is like Guitar, one needs so much corrdination from every fiber of the mind and body that it can often become extatic activity. Is not this how trading.


Is not this how trading is?
One must summon some incredible mental and physical powers to make the trade ( or to stay away from temptations thereoff).

So, you see , why Guitar. It is the most natural choice for the trader.

I amd sure many activities are capable providing the inspiration for trader, but for me the Guitar is it!

Good Trading Dear John

boris said...

Now, in another sphere, the prices and timing of the market actions is kind of a music of its own that is just as complicated and captivating as the music.

Do you all know that harmonies of different strings live together, exactly because the waves relate to each other with FIBO ratios.

Halleluhaj!

God has some work to do to make this majestic world in seven days, but I am thankful he/she made the guitar and build it on the principles of FIBO(:-

Good Trading

John said...

Boris,
Sounds like you love to play
Good for you

old john

John said...

Boris,
Sounds like you love to play
Good for you

old john

boris said...

Dear John,
This harmony in music and life has
a lot to do how I have discovered
APS, it was not becuase somebody gave me secretes(:-

Good Trading Deaer John
And Subscribers

boris said...

Dear Subscriber, Readers
Market is now exactly at 50% fibo of the decline from early January, This is also where the CONFLUENCE of daily and Intraday( hourly) APs comes in. This is an extremely Powerful combo. I advise you , if you have extra longs, trail them carefully. We do not take shorts, but would consider I was in that moode.

Good Trading

boris said...

We had an incredibly quick reaction to our last post/comment ha..

hahaha...
hahahahaha...

Good Trading

boris said...

6 point drop in 6 minutes,

How do you like that?

Good Trading

Aboot-Bull said...

Dear Boris,

for how long u think bonds yields can stay that low ??

I'm loosing my patiance...

thanks,
A-B

boris said...

Dear A-B,
Good To hear from you.

By Bonds you mean goverment Bonrs? I presume.

I think Interest rates will rise towards the later part of the year. And then decline again, but it is possible that we have made the Bottom in the Long term Bonds. We have hit some of the most Important Attraction Points.

Best Signal I can give you is.

Dollar is the key.

When The Dollar turns ( it may already have) and starts declining strongly, the US goverment will start raising interest rates to prevent strong "inflation".

considering our forecast of Dollar to be turning around here ( this is publci for 3 years now) then it is clear that we are fare from the process to start.

How soon will this affect the BONDs, I belive within 6-12 months.
Can not give you more precise parameters, because lot of that is preserved for our payed subscribers.


Good trading Dear A-B

Aboot-Bull said...

Dear Boris,

Thanks a lot,
You have written more than i thought u would ;-)

Thanks,
A-B

boris said...

Welcome Dear A-B
Good Trading

boris said...

This is a very interesting development, which certainly, we did not rule out.
Anybody who shorted at 804 and did not protect will have been taken out at this time.

Next Fibo is 836 at 61% and On a crazy day we could check that number too!?

Good Tradiang

boris said...

Yet this looks suspiciously the run on stops kind of athing.

Only very nimble should/could try to short here.

I am not shorting and I am still 20% invested after collecting profits.

Good Trading

boris said...

If you are short, Any new highs in the EMINI or SPX would have to be covered.

I certainly did not go short, but if I did I would have been long out with profit.

Good Trading

boris said...

You realise now why I was reluctant to go short, even for fun, But If I wend it would have been right at the top and stop would have been only 1 point or less in EMINI!

That is how I trade. Never risk more than coffee money
Of course that would have made profit.

Good Trading

boris said...

We Suspected,
Gold Was upto no good as well
So, that has played out, so far.

We are a bit uncomfortable for not keeping the USO/GLD spread longer, but we shall see if we can revisit that subject later

Thanks for BEING WITH US, everybody
Good Trading

Vin said...

Good evening, Boris.

My! Your higher high on Monday call that you made on Friday was amazingly prescient.

WBR/YBR's turn power is starting to scare me again. :)

The next turn date that you called for in the email is very close to the current one, basically overlapping windows. Is that correct and not a typo?

Thank you, Boris.

Mike Truong said...

Vin,

Where was the higher high call? Was it in the email document or the comment on blogger?

Thanks,

Mike

Vin said...

Whoops. My mistake, Mike. I conflated one of Boris' comments today with another from Friday. (Double top and higher high possibility for tomorrow.)

boris said...

Dear Mike, look up my comments about the turn dates and 18 and 21 conspiring to make a Probable higher higs on Monday.

Good Trading Dear Mike

boris said...

Dear Vin,
Fibo 62 is now within shouting distance. Amost baked in at 838.50.

Of course , by some miracel we can avoid it, but it is so close. We are now 9th day on MDS that means that market has mastered pretty unusual strength in time and price and the bulls will probably will squize every drop of the Bears Blood before letting this one go down. On the other hand we are entereing the area where the HUGE down day is more and more probable. Considering the currency connection ( higher expected Dollar) we could still make into next Turn point ( a bit delayed, though) on the downside.

We shall see ( highst likely dates for top now are today and tomorrow)

Good Trading Dear Vin

boris said...

Remember 21 was techincally weekend, there fore it covers 23 and if stretched even 24.

FOr a turn date

Good trading Dear Mike and Vin

boris said...

I am running late on some of my calculations.

MDS system staut unchanged, but closer to change
Good Trading