Wednesday, January 07, 2009

THanks For Being With US

10:28 ET, 912 909 904 898 $spx 924 927 932 938

08:35 ET,
One look at the EMINI chart from yesterday makes it clear that we had an excellent bulls eye hit on the the top, the point of resistance was so clearly marked on hourly, daily and intraday levels that only blind would miss it. CONFLUENCE is our game and it did not hurt that we had 76% FIBO sitting right there! hallelujah Long Live APs(attraction points)!

894 891 885 878 $spx 909 913 919 92


lagscrew said...

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Job losses and plans to lay off workers hammered the struggling U.S. economy in the final month of 2008, according to private reports that foreshadow grim labor market data from the government on Friday.

U.S. private employers shed 693,000 jobs in December, up sharply from the revised 476,000 jobs lost in November and far more than economists estimated, a report by ADP Employer Services said on Wednesday.

Separate data also showed planned layoffs at U.S. firms eased in December from the previous month's seven-year high but were up an astounding 275 percent annually as the year-old recession cut a huge swathe of destruction through job market.

"It is absolutely terrible," said Dave Lutz, managing director, Stifel Nicolaus, Baltimore.

"I can't imagine this is going to bode very well for any kind of forecasting going into the nonfarm payroll and unemployment rate numbers that we're going to see on Friday."

The ADP December U.S. job losses were the highest since the ADP's survey launch in 2001. Economists expect Friday's payrolls report to show 500,000 jobs were cut in December, according to the median of their forecasts in a Reuters poll.

However, Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, which jointly developed the ADP report, said its data was consistent with a loss of about 670,000 jobs in the government's more comprehensive non-farm payrolls report.

Worse yet, he said he still expected a little more than 2 million U.S. job losses over the next year.

He added that the U.S. economy probably contracted at a 5.5 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter and would shrink 3.5 percent in the first quarter of this year.

"After that economic growth is going to depend on the size and timing of the fiscal package that is being discussed in Washington right now," Prakken said.

The grim jobs data sent U.S. stock index futures lower. Government bonds, which generally benefit from weak economic data, pared their losses.


The median of estimates from 20 economists surveyed by Reuters for the ADP Employer Services report was for 473,000 private-sector jobs lost in December.

The report for December was the first month the data was issued using a new methodology, which ADP said was designed to more closely predict the outcome of the government's non-farm payrolls report.

The economic slump, which is likely to be the longest since the Great Depression of the 1930s, also produced the worst year of layoffs since 2003, outplacement company Challenger, Gray & Christmas said in its monthly report on U.S. job cuts.

The Challenger report said heavy job-cutting could continue through at least the first half of 2009, and the outlook afterward hinges on President-elect Barack Obama's plans to stimulate the economy through increased government spending.

Job cuts announced in December totaled 166,348, down 8.4 percent from November's 181,671, Challenger, Gray & Christmas said. Despite the monthly decline, layoffs were up from just 44,416 in the year-ago period.

Overall, employers announced 1,223,993 job cuts in 2008, the largest annual total since 2003, when there were 1,236,426 job cuts.

The job losses, on top of the worst credit crunch in a generation, do not bode well for consumers, who struggled throughout 2008.

The American Bankers Association said late payments on U.S. consumer loans rose in the third quarter to their highest level since 1980, with late payments on indirect auto loans and home equity lines of credit hitting the highest ever during that period.

The ABA said it expected delinquencies on all types of U.S. consumer loans to rise in coming quarters

lagscrew said...

Im sure most know this but for those who missed it----

Im expecting strength in the $ here as Europe will drop % rates next week so that could fuel more selling

boris said...

Dear Lag,
Thanks for the posts.
I tend to agree with the Dollar idea. And have been in sync with that for a long time projecting higher dollar from 3/2008 to 3/2009

Now, how about our FIRST APS BEING KILLERS of trend.

Yesterdays 943 killed the rally and so far the downtrend has been arrested with 912. INCREDIBLE Attraction Points

lagscrew said...

are you going to post the AP here any more? they were very helpful

jimww said...

Dear readers The 906 S&P is the big number in my mind for the bullish case on a closeing basis, do not want to close be low that otherwise the electrons will fly to a lower orbit. Maybe Boris will put on his Phsyics cap and explain it better but if it closes below 906 donot want a close below vibration shell of 896.

boris said...

Dear Lag, it is posted,

I am sorry it is not well visible.
It is sandwiched between the pictures.

Sorry about that
Good Trading
Dear Lag

boris said...

Dear Jim,
Doing good.
Do not need my help(:-

Enjoy My Dear Friend

Good Trading

lagscrew said...

this just for fun

a formation I watch that works out many times says s&p 891

jimww said...

dear lag do you reverse and go long?

lagscrew said...

sold 3/4 of sds at 70 and all dug at 23.5

lagscrew said...

Jim I think Ill wait to short again soon as I dont like anything about this so called recovery

lagscrew said...

Sorry but I missed putting in my post before about 891 a target that I also had one at 901

so I sold just before thatas I never wait till the end--missed to many that way

lagscrew said...

that is close to Boris sweet spot also

boris said...

Dear Lag,
891 figures for us as well.
It is at the daily level though
GOod Trading

lagscrew said...

thanks Boris