Friday, December 05, 2008

Thanks For Being With US

Dollar BS









boris said...As Dear Dave told us the other day... Are not we lucky to be reading the WALL STREET JOURNAL of TOMORROW?
boris said...Dear Readers, Subscribers, Actually , I think Dave was little too modest, cause we had the WSJ of Tomorrow four over 3 months now and I had it for over one YEAR!
So, would you like to be reading WSJ of tomorrow or next month or next YEAR?
OK you need to subscribe to one of these:
1) SEEFUTURE one year ahead $1500
2) SEEFUTURE 3 months ahead $250
3) Tailored Service $250/quarter, includes SEEFUTURE (3month)
Then Just call up the people at http://www.paypal.com/ and give them my id bchikvash@aol.com along the payment and we will give you the best service on the planet(:-

While most of diffictulty from SEEFUTURE document is caused to the energy complex, at this juncture, there is no sector that is not feeling it. That includes GOLD, Currencies etc.
Have a Nice Weekend

Intellectual Capital
Dear Subscriber, Readers. All of us have one brain, one nervous system, one life, at least in a physical sense. We must realise that, in trading, more so than in everyday life, there are senseless fluctuations in the market that can do two things to the participants/traders. Eat their money and/or eat their INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL. Intellectual Capital is our brain, our ability to concentrate, our ability to make correct decisions. These all get very impaired when we do not systematically approach market and trade hoping instead of thinking. You can see last 2 months or so a lot happened in the market and many have lost lot of money. While, most of stocks I have recommended, KMP, BGR, GIM, LQD, VFIIX, COP, FAX, FPL, CHL, ACH, HNP, PTR ( last 4 are China plays) are up and give dividends. Some stocks we recommended are not up and may even be down a bit like DVY, EPD, ERF, but still they bring the dividends and are a longer term investments. Average Dividend on these stocks/bonds is astonishing 7+ percent. You see, how , we do not jump left and right every time market moves ( short term players can play a bit), but sit and wait for our signals and go with the combination of them. MDS+YBR+SEEFUTURE set the tone for intermediate term and Pressure charts guide us to precise days we may want act and then there are APs and turn dates that complete the picture. This all contributes to better sleep, more money and better Intellectual Capital. CAUSE... My Dear Friends, there is nothing good in the markets when Intellectual Capital is wasted in trading while hoping. Hope and fear impair our brains, our INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL and that is the most important tool we have in the markets.
IC=INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL, Please resist the urge to trade, before you looked at you checklist and verified that you are doing what is SYSTEMIC APPROACH.


====== It Is Asset Allocation Stupid!=====


Another, absolutely essential part of money making is to properly be positioned

in various assets.

There is always some way to make money and it is not by being bullish or bearish ( that is good if you can guess this), but by realising what market you are in and allocating assets properly.Until people start thinking in those terms there is always going to be enough suckers who break their head and capital( money and brains) in the market. As to how to allocate the capital and when, that is a knowledge that is based on historical precedents of research of 100s of years.It works.


Does anybody remember how many times did I say 3/4months ago buy the Gold Oil spread?Hell it was 7 and now it is 15. 100% gain when the world was/is burning. Is anybody listening?No! unfortunately no! World is full of suckers.What is easier than selling USO and buying GLD.It is not like you need the futures or anything like in the past. ETFS have made this so easy. Enough Said(:-

NOTE: Please do not put this spread now, It is nearing the end of the move!

45 comments:

John said...

Boris,

I doubt if the Beast will change over the weekend after a rise like this.

old john

boris said...

Dear John,
YOu are right.
I do not have calculations, but I doubg too, that they have changed.

Good Trading

lagscrew said...

My 2 cents

Monday or Tuesday latest will produce a big down day. but I to see some mixed things on the horizon that dont point either way

Maybe a big down day followed by some sideways---who knows make the bear flag bigger?

John said...

Lagscrew.

ISEE does not support down move quite yet?

old john

D said...

Look at the period data going into the end of the day...it's supported.

:)

D said...

I take that back, that is different data from what I saw friday at the close...there must have been an adjustment. ISEE printed a 113 closing value and the 2 periods prior to closing were ~200. I double-checked my subscription email from ISEE and it does say 113 for the 5th too.

I suspect there was some manipulation going on looking at the numbers now.

:)

Vin said...

I have my computer save the ISEE data throughout the day. My log concurs with D's email. Some adjustments did happen since market close.

ISEE numbers were mostly lower moving into Thurs's close, so an intraday down move is not necessarily out of the picture.

---

Time,Calls (all),Puts (all),Calls (equities),Puts (equities),Calls (indices),Puts (indices),ISEE (all),ISEE (equities),ISEE (indices)
16:10,396376,349970,271203,210704,125136,139262,113,129,90

Vin said...

Whoops, my line got chopped off:

ISEE (all, equities, indices/ETFS) at 4:10pm were: 113, 129, 90

You've made a very wise point, as usual, Boris. I had gotten a bit too comfortable with the intermediate-term trending movement of the past two months, and watching the week's choppiness unfold got to my head at times.

After taking a step back and thinking about things, I've decided that this shaking will terminate in a sudden up or down crash. Shorts are most certainly getting shaken out with each day, so real buy-and-hold investors will have to step up soon for a true rally. Those guys would prefer to hop on board at the low end, so I'm leaning toward a down before a sustainable up.

880-894 on SPX will probably be a rather important area to test and break for the bullish side. I suspect that the high APs will start to cluster around those numbers. That we couldn't make headway into this region despite the buying frenzy on Friday is telling.

I need some of lagscrew's indicators. :)

boris said...

Dear Vin,
THere will be big down day(s), is exactly what everything, we wait for, says!

Dear Vin says
" Those guys would prefer to hop on board at the low end, so I'm leaning toward a down before a sustainable up."


Dear Vin,

"Those guys" are us. We are thy GUys that bought at every low. Or else I would hardly have the profits in my portfolio of stocks I recommended to buy.

Good Trading Dear Vin,

boris said...

Dear All,
I think all this talk about about ISEE, is make sme think that:

1) they are becoming less reliable
and, actually, manipulatable
2) thy are losing value as more and more people follow them.

Hallelujah!

Good Trading

D said...

boris, i sent you an email.

D said...

they're not profits until you remove them from the market.

:)

D said...

The put-call data is manipulated all the time, this is not unique to ISEE. On July 15th bottom they sent through a bogus number on the vix to trigger the quant boxes. Considering we got bogus info again, we closed up and my information says that the institutions sat out ALL day on friday while selling every session mon-thurs, it is a very bad omen for bulls.

Review COT "SP" and what is the trend on commercials?

Vin said...

Agreed, ISEE does not seem as useful in choppy waters. Relatively neutral values (low 100s) are, in fact, probably a good sign: indecision is what we're facing.

Boris, look at previous times when buy and sell pressure points had a wide span after a period of buy-average choppiness--particularly when buy pressure is extremely low. It's hard for me to line up exactly, but there seems to be a tendency toward short term dips in the vicinity.

diesel said...

My take based solely on price/volume is we are headed lower. When Boris's indicators confirm thats good enough for me.

Vin said...

Regarding my pressure graph observations, please note that I am short-term bearish, but I've been trying ever so hard to see things from the bullish side this weekend. Hence, I'm ready to get told otherwise by you, Boris, or the others. :)

boris said...

Dear Vin,
Dear Damien,
Dear D,
There is always some way to make money and it is not by being bullish or bearish ( that is good if you can guess this), but by realising what market you are in and allocating assets properly.

Until people start thinking in those terms there is always going to enough suckers who break thier had and cpital( money and brains)
in the market.

As to how to allocate the capital and when, that is a knowledge that is based on historical precedents of research of 100s or years.

It works.
Good Trading

Does anybody remember how many times did I say 3/4months ago buy the GLD/USO spread.

Hell it was 7 and now it is 15.

100% gain when the world is burning. Is anybody listening?

No! unfortunately no!

World is full of suckers.
What is easier than selling USO and buying GLD.

It is not like you need the futures or anything like in the past. ETFS have made this so easy.


ENOUGH SAID.

John said...

Boris,

Good morning- 7 degrees in chicago. Reading all the comments and learning much. I remember you mentioned the uso/gold spread but as I have said before, I have a hard enough time keeping up with indexes. Good conversation though

old john

boris said...

Dear John,
Good Morning and I wish you leave this hell on earth call Chicago betore it too long ( in winter only, otherwise I like Chicago(:- )

Yes, I understand what you say and there is a lot to learn, even for me, but there is a fundamental lesson in all of this.

Trading is the one of the most intellctually pleasurable and satisfactory occupation. The only way to make the real moeny though is to trade with Asset allocation directions or not trade at all, but just somehow dollar average into these.

Remember there is not too many of these. STOCKS, BONDS, COMMODITIES, HOMES, CASH.

In the big picture this is it. Then one can go and devide these further down.

GOod Trading Dear John,

John said...

Boris,

I have been doing ok over the last year with your help. Patience helps though, trading small amounts and adding to portfolio when getting big down drafts.

thanx

old john

boris said...

Dear John,
I know, that is what I mean.
YOu and I and many do just enough to be able to cope, because doing more will "distroy our mental capacity"=Intellectual Capital.

So, thank god, we learned hard way to survive.

Now, the question becomes, what do we do with the money we are not weilling "to play"

That is where I think another aspect of this site is misanderstood and underutilised at this time.

Perhaps, it is not as SEXY ( well , definitely it is not ) to talk about asset allocation. We all strive for galmor or being MACHO man of trading. That is in our blood.

But, in time, I am really hoping to convert everybody on this board to a really, really good investor, by making them undestand the ASSET cycles.


Thanks My Dear Friend John

Good Trading

John said...

Boris,

I left the "macho" to others long ago. Nothing I have not seen, nothing to prove to anyone. Just want to be comfortable and take care of family.

old john

boris said...

Dear John,
Macho, was perhaps the wrong word.

I should have left at "intellecually pleasurable", "educational" etc.
Which, I absolutely think it is, because one can not really live with asset allocation, without having a good of feel of the market.

So, I am with you there.
Except, for a lot of individuals, especially people coming to trading with much less, life, leave alone trading , experience, it is the adrenalisn of trading, it is feeling of what is possible, challenge that overwelmes the sences and takes over the common sense.

Let us face it, some of them end up pretty benged up before they "get the religion/experiecne" that we bring to this.

I do not want people working with me to go through that with too much pain.

Yes , trading is an expensive university, but we can help make it less painfully, mentall and financially


Good Trading Dear John

John said...

Boris,

I think you were correct with your original wording. "Macho" is correct. I have seen it in the military years ago, seen it in law enforcement and it is the same in trading. It is the adrenalin rush. I was one of them myself but was fortunate enough to learn, some never learn but that is what makes people different.
old john

boris said...

Dear John,
All I can say is that your presense on this board has made everybody mature much faster than it would otherwise would have been.
In my opinion, good part of our success is having people like yourself and others such as Dear Kalltu and others who give that sense of stability and poise.

We/I personnaly can only thank , FIrst God and Then you all who project the seady as she goes image of this board.

Love you My Dear John

boris said...

Dear Subscribers,
By the say, BEasts are unchanged in their status

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear Readers, Especially Israely Readers, please see the CHart of SHEKEL prediction and note that We have practically nailed the price and time for SHEKEL low in Decemeber and Dollar high.

Of course all subscribers and readers should note that SHEKEL is not so unique. It is just a good of a prediction for EURO and SWISSY and all other EURO currencies. As SHEKEL, could be viewed as one of the EUROS!!!

Good Trading

John said...

Boris,

thanx for the compliment.

I really do not think it is me, but more the experiences that came about in life. Many times I did not chose these experiences but they were thrust upon me. It is just like how I found this site, accidentally and my curiosity came into play.

old john

boris said...

Did everybody notice, how I miss a lot of keys when typing. Is it me or my freakin keyboard.

It is probably both a little(:-

Good Trading

boris said...

Well, I should appologise, for trying to put together two names Waldo and Klaaty in previouls post and coming up with "kalltu"

Good Trading

Vin said...

Boris,

Hm. All true. It is so easy to get caught up in the frenzy. I will have to watch that, especially during these grinding periods.

As for D's COT picture, I've found that commercials almost always have a short bias. This might be due to hedging purposes.

The following chart might be helpful to others. It plots the ratio between long-short so that the short-bias can be seen over a long period of time (since 2000).

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_KoyPCMpFJuA/STvsxmwJfbI/AAAAAAAAAlk/nutCNepk7-0/s1600-h/20081207-cot.png

Vin said...

Boris, your mind/fingers must be moving far too quickly for your keyboard. :)

boris said...

Dear VIn,
That is my problem all my life.
ONly people that spend some time reading my staff, eventually , start understanding what I want to say!(:-

GOod Tradng

boris said...

Dear Vin,
Thanks for your info as well.
GOod Trading My Dear Friend

boris said...

Dear Subscribers
Three Bigpictures are getting uploaded to the Psite.

Shoule be available in 10-15 minutes

The additional bigpicture contains the CHF(SWISSY) and TEN YEAR TNOTES
( TNX)

ENJOY

GOod Trading

KB said...

I remain perplexed.....I know this market is BAD....VERY BAD and for good reason. BUT, everyone and their neighbors are talking 1929 CRASH...how much worse it will get etc etc.

I remain bullish, primarily due bullish divergence configuration in options market being similar to that of 2002 bottom and also 1990. The 2002 configuration calls for the bottom to be in, while the 1990 configuration calls for more dancing in current area for another month or two.

Anyhow, the bearishness is certainly convincing without a doubt....BUT, can EVERYONE be bearish and be right ?

Vin said...

Whoops. Just in case someone was looking at the COT graph that I posted, I gave my script an older set of data when generating the graph, so it was missing the most recent 6 weeks of fun. The following is corrected, not that anyone should care too much about COT. :)

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_KoyPCMpFJuA/STxq21cx7wI/AAAAAAAAAls/3PRD3K3btiw/s1600-h/20081207-cot.png

lagscrew said...

wow thx

with the small guys and specs long it looks like they will be taken to the cleaners right?

from what Ive found also the institutions are selling which supports this

lagscrew said...

also the 5 days of trin drops a hudge # Monday and even with a trin of 1.50 (fair amount of selling) it will still be to low @ 4.15

high 4's usually is a good sell and high 6"s is buy---it has went quite a bit higher lately like vix but not lower


careful longs

Vin said...

Please remember that COT data is only current as of Tues. for each week. Considering last week's activity, all parties have surely had their share of the meat grinder by now.

John said...

Lagscrew,

Did you go short yet.?

old john

lagscrew said...

John

all the way

Ralph said...

That up volume on Friday does not show much conviction. Maybe Monday will be the tell.

XII - Daily - 12-5-2008

Ralph

John said...

Boris,

good morning- late start, have been packing

old john

boris said...

Dear John,
Good Morning and Good Trading
It is good to have been packing(:-