Monday, December 08, 2008

Attraction Points(Apoints) COMING UP

Market outlook today is caution. We may have come too far too fast. Keep you stops and if you are long and for an investor ( 45%) invested, it may not be too bad to think of a temporary hedge with SDS of 5-10%(only if/when ES comes below 879 today) of your holdings, which can be lifted later.

894 889 881 871 $spx
915 920 928 938

29.29 29.10 28.80 28.41 qqqq
30.10 30.29 30.59 30.98

93.085 92.995 92.849 92.668 jpy
93.465 93.555 93.701 93.882

891.59 885.59 875.83 863.75 es
916.91 922.91 932.63 944.75

773.55 771.75 768.83 765.20 xau
779.35 781.15 784.06 787.70

22 comments:

goblin said...

Boris, you didn,t mean SSO for hedge- it is 2* long s&p. Dimitry

boris said...

Dear Goblin,
What I mean is that if your 5% is 2500 then 100 SSO shares hedges it

Good Trading

boris said...

Sorry Dear Goblin,
I mean if your 5% is 5000 then 100 shares of sso hedges it
GOod Trading

D said...

i think you mean sds boris

boris said...

Dear D,
Thanks,
The SDS is a double short.

COrrect.

Good Trading

sharon said...

Hello dear boris

good day. it looks like again someone is happy to early. I think more bad times are ahead.

by the way. the shekel cant break the 4.0 area, it is a bad sign.we should wait for mar09 and see...

Sharon

boris said...

Dear Sharon
GOod To hear from you.

If you look at SHEKEL graph , you will see that it was supposed to hit the resistance at this time( mid DEC) with at 4.

We could not ask any more precision that that , can we?(:-
Considering this drawing was made over 9 months ago!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Good Trading

boris said...

Please note the correction, I am saying to hedge only when/if ES MINI goes below 879. Initial statement was mistaken and now changed

Good Trading

sharon said...

Hi Boris

I dont have a lot of time lately :)

Is your forcast about 4.2 during MARCH-JULY valid?

I am talking about probability only :-)

Sharon

boris said...

Dear Sharon,
That forecast made almost a year ago is valid forever(:-

Yes, high probability that SHEKEL goes lower ( quote lower) by Next PASSOVER ( March/MAY ) period

Good Trading

D said...

The character of the market has changed from buying sprints followed by sell-offs to buyers walking up the bid followed by consolidation. Something to keep an eye on if it holds up. Volume tails off during these consolidations, but the sellers aren't pushing prices down anymore.

boris said...

Dear D,
Excellent observations.

THanks a lot. Maybe the market is becoming a bit more orderly?

Good Trading

D said...

At this point I am only willing to call it thin trading. The price action favors the bullish sentiment though. Financials should lead the way to wherever we are heading next, so I am paying close attention to XLF. So far they have levitated despite the indexes being well off of the session highs.

boris said...

We are now raising the
Hedging spot back to 882.90 on ES Mini

GOod Trading

D said...

This fades into the close unless I am due for another lesson. Ideally, as I am positioned for st downside, I'd like to see a flat/near-flat close...under 870 would be even better.

:)

boris said...

Dear D,
I would go with that.
No problem here with a little downturn.

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear Subscriber, Readers,
Our hedge point is now going all the way up to 891.90 On ES Mini
Good Trading

Vin said...

"Caution" did indeed apply, especially in ST preparation for the mystery that is tomorrow. Thanks for the third daily HAP on ES, Boris. :)

boris said...

Dear Vin,
The Currencies played nice today and the markets have done relatively well, after open , I mean.

We have retained our position by carefully trailing behind the "walls".

If need be we may have to hedge tomorrow, but all this move up , while nice, creates the possibility of a very sharp reaction.

Let us remember, the only we get the Intermediate Term signals is by having the Sharp Sellof. As a rule that is how we get them.

SO, we need to patientely wait for that.

In some ways though this move is remarkable because , for the first time we have the sequence of higher highs and higher lows!

Good Trading

boris said...

One more note to Dear Subscribers

The 960 level starting to show up on the horizon is not it?

We may not get there on this move, but it the market seems to be looking at it like a hungry DOG will look at the food(:-

Good Trading

JVE said...

Boris, when you describe the necessity for a sharp selloff prior to getting an intermediate buy signal, do you expect a drop of one day wonder, a few days, couple of weeks? I would assume it would not be an intraday event, something like last Friday's early drop and then recovery.
Thanks and love your work.
JVE

boris said...

Dear Jve,
For the fall/correction to generate the buy it may take one or more days. Average drawdown days even after generating the signal maybe 3 dyas or so. So, we are talking number of days depending where the current configuration of systems are.
It is hard even for me to correctly guess that number. But I would say that we are between 2-7 days before the test may take place. And I could still be wrong in this estimate.

Best is to wait when it happens and what else goes to allow us to finetune it with AP and turn tools

GOod Trading