Friday, October 24, 2008

Thanks for being with us




Well, we got the market do almost all we wanted it do. It rallied nicely into 15:00 ET, as we thought even before markets opened. Now that is not bad for something as unpredictable and volatile as Mr. Market is these days. And if you traded, you could have made money. Nice one at that from -60 deficit to only -26 in SPX terms. Market did not have more to go and fell at the end of the trade. Nevertheless, It appears to be thoroughly washed up. I am sure the pressure charts will show enormous pressure to buy this market, which , usually translates into actual rally in couple days. So, is Tuesday our day?

20 comments:

John said...

Tuesday will be the day Boris.

thanx

old john

boris said...

Dear John,
Enjoy Thanks

Good Trading

Vin said...

One of my intraday indicators crossed into BUY territory a little after you suggested that we watch USD/JPY and the 94 level for rally fuel.

I didn't listen to the objective data and let my emotions hold up the trade. Good learning today... :)

Thanks, Boris. With the speed of today's close in mind, Monday will be interesting... Mr. Market must have shaken out so many longs and shorts today.

sumsum said...

boris hello, i have a question which is somewhat related to the israeli market it self, is there a dangeor of a major bank in israel collapsing and loosing the kupot gemel of people etc.? and if the answer is generaly YES will invetment in MAKAM of the israel bank will keep the dangeor off-and save our saving's money?
difficult questions:)

boris said...

Dear SumSum
Good Financial name(:-

Please understand I have no inside connections in Israeli banking and no private information. I do know that While Isreali banks Real Estate Residential lonas are relatively more conservative than Amercian counterparts, the concentration of loans to the ISRAELI Oligarchs( SOPITALISTS), is very high and reason for concern. I predict lower SHEKEL into Next Passowver (2009) which to me means that there is (mini) run on SHEKEL. If that is the case than foreigners may get scared and the run on SHEKEL may become a run on BANKS. I am not predicting this, I am just theoretically thinking of the probabilities of run on(out of) SHEKEL and consequently run a panic that may case run on banks.

I, for one, thought that this entire shell game of STRONG SHEKEL was more of a to stem run on ( out of) SHEKEL than the reflection on how strong the Israeli economy is or expected to be.

So, there are the thoughts on what is brewing on the currency side, which is always an early indicator of what will come. Remember Dolalr kept going down like hell, before the crisis broke in USA.

Ok, not being the expert on Israeli laws and/or Israeli banking, I would only say that the only safe money is the one in the safe(er) bank. Considering that Israel has liberal currency laws, if your money is in any kind of account that is not restricted, you could chose to invest,deposit, your money in any bankd Israeli or foreign.

If you are restricted ( due to the type of account, Cupot Gemel etc) then You must look fo the safer banks in Israel and I am afraid, I do not know which one will be the safest. There are not too many banks in israel and they all are exposed to the same things , more or less, excetp that ones strictly mortgage oriented like TFAHOT.

I presume, unless you have foreigh choices, there is not much diversification in Israel itself. Now Macam/Pacam/Pazam. Money is money and if the bank goes under, the Goverhment may bail them out, but the money could be tied for a while. I do not think that type of account matters much.

In any case. I really, really appreciate your question and welcome to our shores.

I would hope other Israeli Readers, will pick up on the issues I could not adderss adequately and will get you more info.

Thanks a lot and SHALOM, My Dear Friend

GOod Trading

sumsum said...

hehe:-), i see your point boris, it makes sence, i wonder if there was a possibility to pull the kupat gemel out and to put it in the safety box in cash in the bank wont be a better idea than to risk having them gangsters giving my money to the oligarchs in their last attempt to bail them out. what do you think? money is money, but cash is cash:) even if its under the guard of the bank in the safetybox..wouldnt you agree on that?

sumsum said...

p.s- happy to be here, heard a lot about you:)

boris said...

Dear SumSum
Thank you very much.
If there is chocie to keep the money under the mattress, I am all for it.
HOpefully Dollars, As MR FISHSCHER tried to steall all dollars on cheap from the pucblic when he raised SHEKEL ( MIRAGE)
Good Trading

Aboot-Bull said...

Dear Boris,

You Feel like throughing in something about USD/TRY ?

Thanks.

boris said...

Dear Aboot-Bull
Yes, indeed our opinion has been that we hit once in many generational lows in 10Year Treasuries ( TNX) at low 3s (3.18 i think) and TRY at ( 3.34 I think). It is documented on this site, just look look for "Fixed Income" in the search box on this site.

We think on and off the rates will be rising for many decades to come. Initially slowly, but faster aftre couple years.

Good Trading Dear Aboot-Bull

D said...

the red MA pointed up again...

Aboot-Bull said...

Dear Boris,

Sorry for not being clear enough.
I know your rates view (and also acted on that call)

But i ment the turkish lira USD/TRY cross ... :-)
thanks again,

boris said...

Dear D,
GOod Observation,
It is either another crash or last such pointing up to be followed with upside market explosion.

Fortunately we got asset looks and there too, as you will see, picture is little difficult to read but the Yellow Oscillators are all up and high in most assets ( except banks and reits) that indicate a rally of sorts.

Just look for those pictures coming up today/tomorrow

Good Trading

boris said...

Ok Dear Aboot-Bull,
You wished and here it is. I am mezmorised with this view of USD/TRY

I truly am.

GOod luck
Good Trading

boris said...

Dear Aboot-Bull see the GRAPH in the post
GOod Trading

Ayelet said...

Dear Boris,
There was a reason why i asked it, I bought a 1.50put on that one (very cheap b.t.w),
But i feel the duration is too long...

Thanks a lot,
A-B

Ayelet said...

ooopppss,

my wife logged in thher account while i washed the dishes..... :-)

sorry
Aboot-Bull

boris said...

Well,
Dear A-B,Ayelet,

GOOD LUCK from us

GOod Trading

John said...

Boris.

My humble opinion , after following your pressure charts, not enough buy pressure. I think monday will be another crash/mini crash that will put buy pressure at extreme levels.

Just my opinion

old john

D said...

I am looking for a March 17th style day...