Wednesday, October 15, 2008

attraction points

956 950 941 929 spx
980 986 995 1007

32.34 32.12 31.77 31.32 QQQQ
33.27 33.49 33.85 34.29

945.67 932.42 910.87 884.19 es
1001.58 1014.83 1036.30 1063.06


100.878 100.728 100.484 100.182 jpy
101.511 101.661 101.904 102.207

832.69 829.39 824.02 817.38 xau
843.31 846.61 851.96 858.63

1.354 1.352 1.348 1.344 eur
1.362 1.364 1.367 1.371

Slowly, but surely, the accumulation must continue. REmember our goal is 50% , at least, by Nov/Dec 2008, perhaps even faster. So, I would suggest to toss in 2.5% of the 10 we tossed out at 960 back in.

Dear Readers, we stated in the email to you that 1070 was kind of tops for the first dead cat bounce and that hapenned. Now we are correcting again. I would ask you to toss another 1.5% in , so that for now our asset allocation will stand at 34% for stocks. Please make sure you do mostly , nice quality HIGH YIELD stocks. Or just entire market.

Dear Waldo, Readers, 927 area would be a 62% FIbo and second Daily AP, that is a nice place to try something, but remember, if the bounce is not fast and decisive, you need to abandon the position.
14:23 ET, We just hit the above target and are rising. SO did JPY and CHFJPY
14:26 ET, Rallied almost 10 points from there
14:33 ET, Dear Investor Toss in another 1% here.
14:45 ET, Up 14 points from the bottom
15:07 ET, 18 points from the bottom
15:49 ET, not good for a nice rally, out with a nice little change

33 comments:

אנטי-סופיטליסט said...

good morning all, I must say I have never seen anything like this selloff we have had lately. Not even 9/11. The world can't be as bad as the market is pricing in right now. waldo

boris said...

Dear Waldo
Good Morning,
The market always paints the world the way it wants.

The paint is gloomy right now.

Perhaps unjustfiably. We shall see

Good Trading

lagscrew said...

Ted Spread back up this morning

this has to get much better for a an up move

boris said...

Dear Lag,
Good Morning
Agree, completely

Good Trading

אנטי-סופיטליסט said...

This is maddening, slicing thru ap's like a knife thru hot butter. I am about ready to throw in the towel myself. waldo.

boris said...

Dear Waldo,
Patience, Not every day is a trading buy.

But this is a nice day to toss in another 2% in the stocks

Good Trading

Blaine said...

Hey Guys,

This time it's pretty easy to call. Since we are going into the GDII, just look back to the GDI Dow Jones. Near perfect symmetry:

10/11/29-11/13/29 (-43%)
11/13/29-4/17/30 +48%
4/17/30-7/8/32 (-86%)

Replace 29 with 08, and move forward accordingly. These line up almost perfectly with the Armstrong Pi Cycle dates:

Top 4/23/09
Bottom 6/18/11

This is really VERY EASY. Just don't overthink it. New lows (retest) is already underway. It should be over soon, then we will rally ~50% into the final lower top. I hope to see you all on the other side. But unfortunately, most of us will die in government concentration camps.

Make peace with your Maker...

Blaine

boris said...

Dear Blaine,
That could work and it may not.
I think this could be a bit more complicated. I would suggest thought the nice thing about this is that it does not matter where 50% rally happens( which date), just take the profits then.

But again, things could work very differently too.

Good Trading

Hopper said...

Does anyone remember the BDI
Baltic Dry Index

http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm

As I recall Blaine commented that if it goes below 5000 it is recession time... how about 1800 ?


"When more stuff is being shipped around the world, it needs to be financed. And that creates a greater demand for credit."

not much demand now...

Blaine said...

Hopper, the BDI is ridiculously low. It's pretty obvious by every single measure of the economy that we have been in a recession for months. Since our government still refuses to even label this period a "recession", I have no idea what data they are looking at. Remember, these are same a-holes who said that the subprime credit problem was contained. Fast forward one year later and ask yourself again, can we trust our government. To choices NO and HELL NO!

These guys are bums and need to go away and die. Every single last one of them.

lagscrew said...

Right on !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

אנטי-סופיטליסט said...

Back below the bottom Boris, I think technicals can be thrown out the window because the fear and yen will not allow this market to put in a sustained rally. waldo.

boris said...

Dear Waldo,
Of course, I suggested to be vigilant and throw the position if not good. It lasted for a while, I took a small profit, but Yes, not working

Good Trading

אנטי-סופיטליסט said...

912 better hold. waldo

Blaine said...

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'm telling all of you, this market is going to die as I laid it out earlier and the Federal govt will go bankrupt. THE BIGGEST CREDIT BUBBLE EVER MADE ON EARTH (and perhaps the universe?) IS BEING UNWOUND AND TAKING NO PRISONERS. This will be worse than the Great Depression. Dow 1,700 corresponds to the 1987 crash low. Before most of the funny money was pumped into the system. We may take out 1,000 if we want to undue the entire fake bull market driven by credit since 1981. I don't know. But I do know that this is going to be the worst time in human history. We may not make it through. All great civilations on earth have ended. We are witnessing ours end.

I challenge anyone to poke holes in my theory. Can anyone explain how the credit bubble and fiat currency will not result in the end of America??? I'm serious!

And Barack Obama will lead us through it. I think he is going to do dangerous things to certain groups of people and you will all see how a radical muslim upbringing and Chicago corruption has prepared him to lead a nation. McCain is no better. I think they both suck, but Obama scares me more. The only guy to save us is Ron Paul, but the Union will not be in tact for the next election.

Please someone talk me out of my position. Because I hate feeling this way. I've been watching credit for years and study world history and economic cycles. I can't see a different path. We're doomed.

Vin said...

APs for SPX were quite helpful today. Thank you, Boris.

The gap up and immediate turn seem much too fast and violent. With all this fear, I begin to wonder if Fri. was a true intermediate bottom.

John said...

Blaine,,

Relax- everyone will survive. You have your health I hope which is most important along with your family.

Read what Boris has stated- unless he changed his forecast , this will be a difficult month but he is still looking for 1200 or so on the spx by late spring.
Just prepare for some very nasty inflation that is coming. I do not know how old you are but look at the late 70s and early 80s.
My first mortgage was 16 % and I thought I got a good deal. That was the house I bought my first wife.

old john

boris said...

Dear Blaine,

In a way, the same thing happned to russia and some people did suffer and some even died, but RUSSIA is here and now.

They did not have the credit thing , but the same, sopitalists inflated economy with fiar RUBLE that could buy you anything. SO, the system got junked and there is a new system, but people lived and some even prospered.

The only question is this?
USSR did not have the markets and could not compare, what happened to markets, but we can compare to JAPAN, We can compare to USA in 1929. None of it ended in the self destruction of nation. Why now?

I do not think so..

Yes to the bad things and tough times, but not a selfdestuction of USA

Good Trading Dear Blaine

boris said...

Dear Blaine,
Dear John,
John is correct.
He states very bad cirumstances of 70s.

Still, clearly the credit was not as developed and we were debt provider not comsumer, but think about it this way. For whatever reason ( I guess gans and navy) we have our own debt in our own currency. And RUSSIANS and CHINESE and ARAB nations have theier denominated assets at the FEDERAL reserve, So what Are they going to do. They must support USA or they are going down with us.

THis is not ARGENTINA, owing money to USA ( 1980s). We are a privilged nation ( UNFORMTUNATELY that got through our head) , we issue our own debt in our own currency and then have Dear B ready to print as many of this S as we want.

GOD help us(:-

Good Trading

John said...

Blaine,

This may be the best thing for the next generation. If you have ever really sat down and talked to a depression era person, they remember what it was like. That is why they performed so well in WWII. They were very hard working, took nothing for granted and were thrifty almost to a fault.
1200 on the spx by May.

old john

boris said...

Dear Vin,
I am sorry, could immediately notice you post.

Thanks you ver much.
I am glad you recognize the usefulness of this little buggers called APs(:-

GOod Trading to you My Dear Friend

אנטי-סופיטליסט said...

Hello Dear Boris....

You mentioned postings on Psite but I don't see anything new for a few days????

Am I being left out??

Maybe you can post any updates on the franc and/or euro :-)

xerxes

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
I galdly, will,

Un+Fortunately, there is nothing new, but I will reinforce what I said already. In tomorrows update.

Really, just need to continue what were told todo. To accumulate the currenies at you pace.

It is nice that you are getting opportunity to do so as the currencies are mostly gyrating within range for now.

Nice for accumulation.( you have you sights on certain currencies) nice.

Keep doing what we discussed.

I will update anyway tomorrow.

Good Trading Dear Xerxes.

sharon said...

Brunswick Corp in 25 years low,

Boris, we need to buy some yachts to fix the situation.

Sharon

sharon said...

-

boris said...

Dear Sharon,
If we can devide 90/10
where you pay 90 and i pay 10 I will go for that(:-

Just as long as I will use the boat 90 and you will use it 10(:-

Good Trading Dear Sharon

tim9lives said...

I agree with John,,,this reminds me of the 70's
The big difference IMO is that we have to add the credit crisis.
But, the high oil and commodity prices seems to be what started some of the inflation,,,and then we got the current credit crisis which appears to be deflationary.
The USA will be fine,,,granted,,tough times,,but life will go on.
Every generation has one of these crisis to deal with. It is a cleaning of the excesses,,,nothing more,,,nothing less.
The most incredible thing IMO is the strong dollar,,,just when all the pundits said the USA would crash and burn.
Looks like they were wrong about that so far,,,countries with strong currencies do not crash and burn IMO.
Take a deap breath,,,relax--TIM

Blaine said...

Boris, John,

Good points. Here are some more of mine:

1) I said a 48% rally into 4/23/09. Then a 86% plunge into 6/18/11.

2) I don't believe we are facing inflation. This is not the 1970's. We are facing the deepest deflationary depression ever recorded. This is the Kondratieff Winter.

3) This is deflation because no other time on earth saw this big of a credit bubble bursting. The physical effect is to reprice everything bought with this credit because credit is not money. Most economic growth from 1980 (save technology) was fake?! It was all done via credit creation and asset sales to foreign investors. Please tell me how a country can say it is growing by selling its assets and increasing its liabilities? Please tell me why there are no factories in America anymore? And the ones remaining are dying. Go to Detroit. Tell me how our society can rebuild when we have no factories and no money to buy imports because the world won't take American credit (USD)?

4) The only competitive advantage we have is land and military. And ultimately, we will probably have to sell our land to settle our debts. Or sell our military assets like Russia did. The USD is a credit note. Not real money. Real assets will ultimately settle our debt. But when we sell the grain belt to the Chinese, we are no longer a sovereign nation.

5) The leaders running this country are totally f-ing it up. They all have been since Hoover. We had a chance after WWII, but those veterans came home and produced a human bubble (baby boom) and raised them with an ego focused selfish morality to consume and acquire at all costs. The WWII vets felt entitled to economic prosperity for saving the free world (and rightfully so) but they raised their children to believe in the same entitlements. The boomers then went through the 60's and officially changed the moral compass of America.

6) The boomers demanded more "stuff" than we could ultimately produce. They decided to get what they wanted by creating credit and making money float freely with Nixon. This was the nail in the coffin. Then the boomers had children and passed down even worse morals and self-entitled consumerism. No one in this generation believes in hard work because everything was handed to them. And the children living today are totally corrupt, lazy and morally bankrupt. There is no work ethic in the younger generations to pull us out of this. There will only be violence and anarchy from this crowd.

7) Throw in 30 million illegal immigrants fighting for the scraps and you can see just how many civil wars will be fought in the streets of every town in America.

I am talking about total ruin. This will not end well. My only question is when does the first nuke go off? Because that is looking like the better outcome at this point.

I am 30 years old and do not want to turn 31 in the USA. I am ashamed of this country's choices.

Blaine

John said...

Blaine,

It is not that bad. I have been through much worse in my life and I am still here.
Just tough times that is all. Those that live through these times will be better for it

old john

tim9lives said...

Dear Boris,,i want to add something.
In my opinion,,much of this fire in the markets can be traced to interventions.
Back at the beginning of the year, inflation was the enemy of the G-7.
We were seeing riots in some third world countries, oil was predicted to hit 200.00 a barrel and gold was predicted to hit 2000.00 an ounce.
So the G-7 decided to take down this inflation,,,but for every action,,,,we get a reaction.
And now the swings are 700 points in the Dow,,,and 80.00 in gold. I say it's the interventions which started this snowball moving downhill which is now about to cause an avalanche.
Take care- Tim

Hopper said...

Americans are very innovative. Don't sell them short.
If you know what is coming, ask yourself, how can you profit from it?

אנטי-סופיטליסט said...

Hello Dear Boris....

While looking at the BigPic Euro weekly you posted, it occurred to me that it looks like a quasi "Domed House". This suggests a target of 1.255.... Just pretending to be learned :-)

xerxes

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
It is good to learn,
Saves me explanations.
Now If you could explain to us that concept(:- that would be great.

I know the DOME construction, can we hear it from you(:_

Good Trading