Saturday, September 20, 2008

Thanks for being with us

Dear Damien, You asked , You Got! Love you my Dear Friend









This Volatility,I would say , VIOLENCE( YES, My Dear Readers), in the markets is like a feeling opponents get when SHAQ makes a facial DUNK right in front of them. If I had a rating system for stocks I would call last few days XRATED! Do you want to avoid the facials like this? Whatever you do stay with aggregates unless you are the stocks market GOD(ess). Stay with broader indices and ETFs.

26 comments:

John said...

Boris,

good morning/afternoon

as usual - thanx

old john

boris said...

Der John,
Good morning to you too
The beasts are the same place. So far

GOod trading

Muthu said...

Boris,
With the recent market action, I am amazed at the bid/ask spread on the calls and puts. Some which are really absurd - look at SPY Puts in December 2008.

I think we are going to go down soon as I feel that liquidity is drying up - I think this is what happened in Pakistan.

Regards,
Muthu

D said...

buyers need sellers and sellers need buyers...

The retards are destroying the microstructure of the markets and destroying legitimate liquidity.

boris said...

Dear Muthu,
I agree with you that things are far from normal in the markets. Some markets seem to operate OK, like currency markets and futures markets, while the stock market shows the wider bid ask prices in stocks and options.

Uncertainty with the stocks market is a reason for that. And Yes, it could/will translate into even lower prices.

So, far we have been good with our forecasting and even short term swings.

I only hope we can keep up.
I relly on you guys/girls to tell me about anomalies you see out there and you may even more time to look for those than I do.

I continue looking at things that brought me measure of stability for which I am greatful for me and our subscribers.

Three many things I do not watch, and makes me happy that you do.
And again, I agree there is a retest coming somewhere down the road( at least).
Nevertheless when I see stocks like BC,PHM up 50%-60% and more I must conclude that one needs to chose the spots and there maybe a light at the end of the tunnel that is approaching as fast as our subway train approaching NEW JERSEY(:-
I am mostly concetraged on FIXED income instruments that are telling a story of the crisis resolution being near, on the bases of another reflation and higher interest rates.

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear D,
True, TRUE,

Nobody was a bigger bear than me in 2007, I am beginning to see the signs of the bear market end soon.
If not nearly here
Good Trading

D said...

The lack of clarity in regards to the execution of the debt fund should keep the market confused and delay new lows into 2009 while we work off this negative sentiment. I'm long the next sell-off and relaxing through New Year's.

Strength in large cap financials should buoy the broad indices while the other sectors price in bad earnings. The debt fund will be the demise of unprivileged banks as the majors are disproportionately awarded tax-payer funds via the treasury overpaying for debt securities. I like energy stocks and names like GE, WB, BAC, IBKR, JNJ

lagscrew said...

Boris and friends

My stuff is showing we are very close to a top here. 2/3 are extreme and others 3/4 the way there.

Best guess is a small pullback then a top or 1 more day up then down

אנטי-סופיטליסט said...

Dear Boris,
I too was shocked by spreads on options.There is a column in Barron's,(THE STRIKING PRICE)this weekend that explains wide spreads.
To paraphase...option market makers
depend on shorting stocks to adjust their risk profiles.Banning shorting affects basic trading strategies. I quote:" the options market will be a tough place for all but the most sophisticated investors to navigate.The ban already has caused a "massive disconnect" in stock indexes that include large percentages of financial stocks.." Also " the bid-ask spread.or the prices at which
market makers buy and sell options,
widened to reflect the difficulties faced by market makers." In other words,option market makers can't hedge so spreads are much wider.
Michael Schwartz,option strategist at Oppenheimer recommends investors use outside-limit orders- not market orders to try to trade at prices better than what is displayed in the market. In other words let market come to you rather than chase the market. He also says: "The wisest decision
might be to stay on the sidelines until the regulations are clarified."
Several brokers sent messages last week that basically stated that they would not let customers sell calls unless they owned the stock to deliver against exercise. Also customers were not allowed to exercise puts unless they own the stock to deliver against the exercise.
Hope this helps. Sorry if I got a little long winded..I figured not everyone has access to Barron's.

The ISEE index closed at 66 on Friday.That's the lowest number I've seen since coming across the index on here. It seems that everyone distrusts the rally.
Good trading,
Klaatu

D said...

boris it's been a while since you posted your recession indicator...what's the latest on that?

D said...

The 52 week low for ISEE was March 10th at 56...

:)

John said...

Boris,

You now answer about things before I ask. You know me well.
Not being that well versed, I agree with the close to the end theory. What I was looking at was BGT- floating rate interest income.
There seemed to be total chaos with this the other day when the market was down. It made a nice move up when the market changed direction. I do not own any but looking at i after you mentioned interest rates.

old john

אנטי-סופיטליסט said...

Dear Boris/D,

Thanks D for the historical.
I see that March 10th was a Monday low.
Bounced up into Wed.
Then dropped to slightly new lows on the following Monday.
Maybe we'll get the same.Seems at least a test is in order.
good trading,
klaatu

tim9lives said...

Dear Boris,,
Great calls this week,,,very impressive my freind !!

Also,,,just wondering if some time this week you may find time to update GroupTation,,,,if you need your rest(I'm sure you do)
I understand.
Thanks again---Tim

John said...

CUBS WIN- going to the playoffs

boris said...

Dear John,
Thanks and
GO CUBS

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear Klaatu
Thanks a lot for your great
insigths and updates.

Good Trading My Dear Friend

boris said...

Der D,
I will get a fresh reading soon on
the recession indicator and will publish it , perhaps, just before/after the Oct 1

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear Tim,
Thanks for kind words
I try, as hard as I try,
just do not manage it daily.

But it is here on the board now.
I may add couple more later

Good Trading My Dear Friend

diesel said...

Hi Boris,

Would love to see an updated sp500 chart denominated in depreciated $USD also when you get a chance at some stage.

Looking forward to the coning week.

Regards,

Damien

diesel said...

Wow that was quick. Many thanks.

Damien

tim9lives said...

Thank you Boris,,,I know that this is a time consuming item for you,,,,so I only ask every so often.
I'll limit my requests to once a month, :-)
Thank you for posting it on the board,,,I mainly follow Gold,,
By the way,,,one thing I noticed a while back,,,was when we had the big buy signal in Gold,,,and you made that call to buy,,,in Aug 2007 I think it was,,,,using Bollinger band on the daily chart for gold,,,one would have also noticed that the bands were contracted and in a narrow range for a few weeks.
Anyway,,,Everything says we are not in a bull market for Gold IMO,,,as we need to consolidate for in a narrow trading range for at least a month or two,,,which has not happened yet.
The last time we trended up for a bull leg in PM's,,,we had consolidated almost a full year I think.
And I have learned the hard way,,,trading gold can have big rewards,,,but with no limits,,the risk/pain makes this a dangerous trade most of the time.
(Best to wait for the almost perfect signals)
Thanks again for the post of the charts my friend,,,take care--Tim

tim9lives said...

Just wanted to pass this on to you and our readers,,,as I find it an incredible thing when I read this.

RAIDS OF INDIVIDUAL ACCOUNTS
This is so important a topic, that it deserves top billing!!! Hidden inside the AIG bailout funding package, surely hastily cobbled together, but carefully enough to include a totally corrupt clause, was a handy dandy clause that permits raids. The conglomerate financial firms are permitted at this point to use private individual brokerage account funds to relieve their own liquidity pressures. This represents unauthorized loans of your stock account assets. So next, if the conglomerate fails, your stock account is part of the bankruptcy process. Finally the corrupt USGovt and corrupt Wall Street houses are desperate enough to put into policy, stated by the US Federal Reserve, outlining the authorized raid of your money. Beware. A good route would be to remove your money, start a subscription here, and open a GoldMoney account, then purchase physical gold or preferably silver with my offered discount. That cannot be taken from you, and will rise 5x for gold and 10x for silver in the next two to three years. The actual evidence for legalized stock account raids by the financial firms can be found in recent articles in Financial Times and Wall Street Journal. So this is not a wild claim. The September 14th article on the Wall Street Journal entitled “Wall Street Crisis Hits Stocks” was the first exposure.
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1221764698.php

Take care-Tim

boris said...

Dear Damien,

The REAL SPX chart comes out OMEGA TRADESTATION and I must update it with a day or two ( max) delay.

SO, you asked an easy question/request...
How could I refuse(:-

Good Trading My Dear Friend

Dear Tim,

Unfortunately, the Grouptation comes from a less automated sorce and I am dying to get this staff to give to somebody.

Ok, here is what, If somebody can find me a inexpensive laborer , just some ENGLISH and excell will do, I am willing to pay money to update the GROUPTATION and Even Daily Charts.

Everbybody, on the lookout, help me find inexpensive laborer, I can give daily data and he/she would just make the spreadsheets out of them.

Good Trading

אנטי-סופיטליסט said...

Dear Boris /all,

Thank you for the charts. It looks like a test of the lows or support is coming soon for a lot of indexes.

Will it break or not. When I look at a long time chart of Dow Jones 30, It seems to me that she use a lot of years to break true 100, 1000, 10000. So if we get a test (and I believe that we have seen the bottom last week), she will be ready for a bull run the next 5-7 month.

The history tells me that Dow could use 2-6 more years around 10000, so there is no hurry to hit 10000 (What do you think Boris?)

When it comes to Oslo Stock exchange, I still think that she will make a lower low in the beginning of October. I am a little bit unsure about this now, after the big manipulation last week. The oil can still drag it down. Time will tell soon enough about the anti dollar effect.

A lot of Option price usually fall in price Monday's after O expiration, is my experian.
Some are rolling the option over to the next month. Could this also be a part of the big spread?

Good trading,
Howard

boris said...

Dear Howard,
THanks for you opinions.
Large spreads,in general, are not necessarily a permanent loss of liquidity.

They often indicate the uncertainties being high in the mrket and market makers will ask for bigger protection for participation.

I am not going to read too much into every aspect of the trading, because.

Truely, I do not know the meaning of every event. I leave the explanation of all and every event to those who know.

For me it is enough to look at my indicators and go with them ( certain or uncertain) at least I know what I am looking at.

Now, I agree with OIL needing some work lower. So do the metals .

Nevertheless we know that we could have inverse trends into that and SEEFUTURE describes the times for it.

Yes, Dow and any other indices could use the retest and probably will do so. On the other hand if we were to get continuation here above 1330, we may have change our mind about the timing and sizing of that retest ( whih may be more of a correction than the retest).

So, being true to what I know and leaving speculation to others.

I will follow our indicators to tell us what is going on.

Nobody will tell the truth, because it honestly does not exist.
The only that exists is what you think about the markets.

Good Trading